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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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    #1472
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,833 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    MJohnston wrote: »
    Read the thread!


    Mod Note: Tone it down MJohnston.


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    #1473
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    At this stage its a now cast scenario. So many models and charts but this is unknown territory for a Hurricane of this magnitude. A clearer picture this time tomorrow for sure. Personally i feel this will be an event we will be talking about for many years to come.

    www.waterfordweather.com


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    #1474
    Dow99
    Registered Users Posts: 275 ✭✭Dow99


    h2005 wrote: »
    So worst case and best case for Dublin Monday?

    Worst case, Dublin is wiped out, hundreds if not thousands dead.
    Best case, it misses Dublin


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    #1475
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,482 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    cherryghost wrote: »
    I wouldnt bother with HIRLAM at all. It's been like that since Wednesday. It can't pick up the depression at all.

    We're pretty much in 'the window' now for accurate forecasting. None of the charts have aligned perfectly. Some of them have Mayo/Galway in the firing line (ARPEGE showing damaging median and gusts for Connaught, Munster and South Leinster), others have it missing completely (Munster, South Leinster). Some have a more intense storm penetrating very strong winds far inland while some charts (JMA, GEM, have been unreliable so far) showing more westerly position hammering mostly just South and West coatsts, some have skewered it east slightly. I wonder what Met Eireann are thinking next.

    The ICON wind gust graph is incredible though. Hard to see it actually being THIS strong but at the same time it was the first chart to call the Eastward shift last night before some of the rest decided to line up.

    430609.png

    It's been by far the most bullish on strength.


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    #1476
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,833 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS 18Z mean speeds

    tempresult_ocb6.gif



    GFS 18Z gust chart

    tempresult_xyi7.gif


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    #1477
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    giveitholly wrote: »
    You said the exact same thing this morning

    And yesterday morning when Met Eireann were to feel silly with their hype about high impact weather..


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    #1478
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users Posts: 3,033 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Looks increasing likely that the west will miss out on all the excitement yet again. :rolleyes:

    Hate your posts in the best possible way :(


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    #1479
    Paully D
    Registered Users Posts: 28,710 ✭✭✭✭Paully D


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    Looking ominous for the south-east coast there

    Kilmore Quay and surrounding areas may yet end up in Wales. :eek:


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    #1480
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    GFS 18Z mean speeds

    tempresult_ocb6.gif



    GFS 18Z gust chart

    tempresult_xyi7.gif

    Again looks a lot further east. Kerry and west cork and up the west coast not as badly hit based on that chart.

    Anyway tomorrow and the next 36 hours will be interesting model watching!


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    #1481
    Lumi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    The downgrades have commenced.

    fraxinus1 - read the mod note in post #1 before you post again!


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    #1482
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    That is mean speeds. Gusts on top of that.

    Yep, but I was more concerned about direction though. Cork & kerry southward facing coasts appear to have winds running parallel to them, with Waterford & Wexford under a bigger threat.


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    #1483
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    https://weather.us/forecast/2960964-wexford/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

    Great link put in any location and it will give you the ensemble gusts from the ECM


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    #1484
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users Posts: 3,033 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Dow99 wrote: »
    Worst case, Dublin is wiped out, hundreds if not thousands dead.
    Best case, it misses Dublin

    A tad extreme there don't you think?


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    #1485
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,647 ✭✭✭✭josip


    After today I'm in no doubt that it's going to hit the south east hard.
    I've never seen so many flocks of seagulls on the Barrow this far in advance of a storm.

    PHv9Lmz.jpg


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    #1486
    Cantona's Collars
    Registered Users Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    Paully D wrote: »
    Kilmore Quay and surrounding areas may yet end up in Wales. :eek:

    Halloween tours of Loftus Hall will take place in Aberystwyth.

    The Spiegeltent could end up in Glasgow.


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    #1487
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest IR showing cloudtops above 40,000 ft. Santa Maria airport (in red) has peaked at 31 knots and is now down to 26 kts.

    METAR LPAZ 142230Z 35026G37KT 6000 -RA SCT008 BKN015 19/18 Q1007 RERA
    METAR LPAZ 142200Z 34031KT 4000 RA BR SCT006 BKN012 19/18 Q1007
    METAR LPAZ 142130Z 36023KT 5000 RA BR SCT004 BKN010 19/18 Q1006
    METAR LPAZ 142100Z 36021KT 3000 -RA BR SCT004 BKN010 20/19 Q1006
    METAR LPAZ 142030Z 01012KT 320V040 7000 -RA FEW008 SCT012 BKN048 22/21 Q1005
    METAR LPAZ 142000Z 04007KT 010V070 7000 -RA SCT012 BKN048 22/20 Q1005

    430610.PNG


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    #1488
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Simon Gruber Says wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/919298032625209345

    https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/919310474805764102

    I'm not sure why but thats the coolest thing ive seen on here yet.

    Also thanks to everyone for the updates, this is a real informative place even though ive no idea what ye are talking about mostly.


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    #1489
    Zzippy
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,166 Mod ✭✭✭✭Zzippy


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Not good. Celebrate the mundane if you must; I shall not. :P

    I'd rather celebrate my roof remaining intact.


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    #1490
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,482 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    This is starting to gather a lot of attention internationally.


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    #1491
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    https://weather.us/forecast/2960964-wexford/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

    Great link put in any location and it will give you the ensemble gusts from the ECM

    I got 90mph in my location! Impressed with that..bye bye roof slates!


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    #1492
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,242 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Zzippy wrote: »
    I'd rather celebrate my roof remaining intact.

    perfect storm track is one that leaves your own house unscathed while giving you a great view of that asshole at number 13's roof getting lifted off


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    #1493
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Zzippy wrote: »
    I'd rather celebrate my roof remaining intact.

    But there would be nothing to celebrate if there was no storm.


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    #1494
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    This is starting to gather a lot of attention internationally.

    Indeed, but most people I spoke to say locally "it's a whole lot of nothing" or "it's just a bit of wind"


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    #1495
    Zzippy
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,166 Mod ✭✭✭✭Zzippy


    Akrasia wrote: »
    perfect storm track is one that leaves your own house unscathed while giving you a great view of that asshole at number 13's roof getting lifted off

    Hey! I'm in No. 13!







    (no, no I'm not)


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    #1496
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,070 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Met Eireann on Radio 1 just now with Liz Walshe . current high winds expected on south SW coast However a slight deviation in track will give strongest winds to south and south east coast. local thunderstorms forecast to.


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    #1497
    Nettle Soup
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭Nettle Soup


    I do get the impression that Waterford/Wexford will bear the brunt of this storm.

    I was chatting to a carpenter/roofer earlier. He said he is very busy doing extensions in and around Galway. He said you wouldn't believe the amount of loose roof slates and slates that have fallen into gutters. He reckon a big storm could send them all flying. More work for him I guess.


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    #1498
    200motels
    Registered Users Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭200motels


    The track could still change, either to the west or east but as it stands Waterford is going to get hammered.


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    #1499
    JuanJose
    Registered Users Posts: 312 ✭✭JuanJose


    MJohnston wrote: »
    Romantic Rose wrote: »
    It's quite windy here already (South Donegal).

    This has nothing to do with Ophelia really, it's actually due to be extremely calm wind wise Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
    On the money there. Having experienced a tropical storm in 2005, where its arrival was preceded by an eerie calm & an odd rise in air temperatures, winds at this juncture are not Ophelia related.


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    #1500
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    12Z ECMWF winds at 100 metres. Subtract about 5-10% to get standard 10-metre winds. Pink area is Force 9-11, gold is Force 12. Some strong stuff up the Irish Sea.

    09Z
    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017101412_045.jpg

    12Z
    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017101412_048.jpg

    15Z
    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017101412_051.jpg

    18Z
    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017101412_054.jpg

    21Z
    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2017101412_057.jpg


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    #1501
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,833 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note : Reminder that there is a chat thread re preparations / disruptions see below . Best keep this thread for more technical discussion.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057797471


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