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Storm likely Saturday night 28th Feb - Widespread gusts > 100km/hr

  • 26-02-2015 7:15pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭


    A widespread wind event is increasingly likely late Saturday and into early Sunday as a rapidly deepening depression will form on the left exit of an intense jetstreak.

    The storm will deepen markedly on approach and has the potential to bring widespread inland gusts 60kt and gusts in exposed regions above 70kt.

    Nothing exceptional is expected but the storm may be notable due to its southerly track bringing more populated regions into its path.

    Also of note is it is likely to take a direct path overland at its most developmental phase with lots of energy and rapid pressure falls, some significant wind gusts may occur as it exits the Irish east coast.

    A quick post here as busy but just to highlight the risk....

    EC @ 48

    ECM1-48.GIF?26-0


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Yep, while the Sunday night low has dissolved from the GFS, the low on Saturday looks more interesting now on the ECM.

    150226_1200_54.png
    150226_1200_57.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    This ECM view is a bit better.

    kvKG6Np.jpg
    DnYEOde.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Sustained winds near 45kt inland. Not a common occurrence


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Smidge


    Will this be a mainly coastal SW storm?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Met E doesn't seem too excited by this, just another wintery blow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,482 ✭✭✭typhoony


    level 1 seems about right, thankfully considering its track it doesnt turn into a bomb. I would wait though until tomorrow mornings chart updates just in case


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Met eireann will have an upgrade on the 0530 update on the website and at 0755 on radio 1. it will be once again nasty along parts of the west coast late Saturday/early sunday. mace head no doubt recording a fairly high gust yet again!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Violent storm force on the west coast on the 18Z EURO4, though the model is prone to overdoing things a little.

    15022818_2_2618.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Morning guidance pushing storm a bit further north.

    Would hold gust calls from yesterday put place risk zone further north.

    It will be a rapidly developing storm as it crosses the country.

    A good swathe of 60kt+ gusts, exposed areas to 70kt+

    Strongest gusts may be as the storm exits into the North Channel Sat night.

    Latest EC @ 48hrs

    ECM1-48.GIF?27-12


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    A downgrade due to the track shift on the ECM this morning. The tightest gradient now brushes up along the west-northwest-north coasts rather than pushing further inland as the model showed yesterday. It's also a bit weaker.

    Still time for some changes, and would still bring gales inland for a time in the parts of the west/northwest/north I think. But a bit less interesting than it looked yesterday.

    150227_0000_42.png
    150227_0000_45.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭weisses


    Not even a level 1 so ... if that downgrade continues


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    weisses wrote: »
    Not even a level 1 so ... if that downgrade continues

    As it stands, Met Eireann would probably still issue an orange warning for the west coast if the ECM verified. But yeah further changes are possible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭weisses


    GFS showing 80 - 85 km/h winds max for Saturday ?! ..


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    weisses wrote: »
    GFS showing 80 - 85 km/h winds max for Saturday ?! ..

    GFS doesn't model these type of lows very well accurately. Better off looking at ECM/HIRLAM.

    06Z HIRLAM shows it as mainly a west/northwest coast affair. Force 9 to Force 10. Nothing unusual for those areas and could downgrade further if it tracks further north again. Still would probably be an orange warning for those areas.

    http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/tuul10ms,tuul10mb,presmslp,presmslv


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭weisses


    GFS doesn't model these type of lows very well accurately. Better off looking at ECM/HIRLAM.

    Thanks ... Just picking up on reading/interpreting the charts lately ...


  • Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭eastmayo


    Met eireann have issued an orange wind alert for tomorrow eve


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    eastmayo wrote: »
    Met eireann have issued an orange wind alert for tomorrow eve

    Yeah, as expected given what the HIRLAM is showing. Less severe than it looked yesterday and more confined to coastal areas, but still stormy for a time on the west/northwest coast.
    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo

    Extremely windy period from Saturday afternoon through to early Sunday morning.
    Southwest veering west winds will reach mean speeds 65 to 80km/h with gusts of 110 km/h., but gusts of up to 130km/h, are likely on exposed coasts and headlands for a time in the evening and early night.
    Issued:
    Friday 27 February 2015 11:00
    Valid:
    Saturday 28 February 2015 14:00 to Sunday 01 March 2015 06:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Westmeath, Meath, Roscommon, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

    Very windy condition from Saturday afternoon through to late Saturday night
    Southwest veering west winds will reach mean speeds 50 to 60 km/h with gusts of over 90km/h., but up to 110km/h. in exposed areas.
    Issued:
    Friday 27 February 2015 11:00
    Valid:
    Saturday 28 February 2015 14:00 to Sunday 01 March 2015 02:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    GFS & GSM not making much of this away from the NW, though the ECM & HIRLAM suite continue to hint at very gusty weather on a more widespread scale, but with the NW bearing the brunt.

    54f0e60d8e111.gif

    New Moon



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    Those Vedur ECM wind charts posted earlier show wind at 100 m, not 10 m, so they can look meaner than reality down at our level.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Orange marine wind warning issued 2300
    Marine Weather Warnings



    STATUS ORANGE

    Gale Warning


    Southwesterly gales or strong gales developing on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea early Saturday afternoon, soon veering westerly and increasing to storm force on coasts from Loop Head to Rossan Point to Carlingford Lough.
    Issued:
    Friday 27 February 2015 23:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Impressive dry intrusion forecast with this system. One not to underestimate. Sting jet like feature a possibility


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Certaingly stingjet potential in northwest later.

    Euro4 showing sustained 100km winds brushing coast latet,,,, awaiting EC


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Looks like its downgraded a bit again since last night on the HIRLAM. Gales more restricted to coastal areas rather than getting further inland.

    Should still reach storm force on the northwest coast for a while though.

    http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/tuul10ms,tuul10mb,presmslp,presmslv

    Current sat :
    yr2bmWZ.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Getting bleak now at Westport harbour


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    A short phase of quite violent winds to reach the north-west coast this evening

    - It will really ramp up quickly in the next few hours.

    15022818_2_2806.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    1300 reports , gust of 52 knots at Belmullet and 986. 1400 reports pressure now down to 983 hpa


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    1500 reports , Belmullet now down to 981hpa


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,747 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Wind picking up on the North Kerry Coast, 10 min avg 27 kph, gust 58 kph SW. Will be out of the strongest winds, doubt I will get gusts above 80 kph here.

    Feeling extremely mild at 12.2C

    Overcast and misty on and off

    Bar 989.98mb Falling Rapidly


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A very rapid increase in the winds here in Castlebar but extremely mild here at the moment at 12 degrees. Meanwhile on the 1600 reports Belmullet is now down to 980hpa with gusts being reported at nearly all of the met stations.


This discussion has been closed.
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