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26-02-2015, 19:15   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Storm likely Saturday night 28th Feb - Widespread gusts > 100km/hr

A widespread wind event is increasingly likely late Saturday and into early Sunday as a rapidly deepening depression will form on the left exit of an intense jetstreak.

The storm will deepen markedly on approach and has the potential to bring widespread inland gusts 60kt and gusts in exposed regions above 70kt.

Nothing exceptional is expected but the storm may be notable due to its southerly track bringing more populated regions into its path.

Also of note is it is likely to take a direct path overland at its most developmental phase with lots of energy and rapid pressure falls, some significant wind gusts may occur as it exits the Irish east coast.

A quick post here as busy but just to highlight the risk....

EC @ 48


Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 27-02-2015 at 06:09.
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26-02-2015, 19:20   #2
maquiladora
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Yep, while the Sunday night low has dissolved from the GFS, the low on Saturday looks more interesting now on the ECM.


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26-02-2015, 19:29   #3
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This ECM view is a bit better.


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26-02-2015, 19:33   #4
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Sustained winds near 45kt inland. Not a common occurrence
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26-02-2015, 21:56   #5
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18Z HIRLAM shows storm force winds on the west coast, inland gales.

http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prog...smslp,presmslv
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26-02-2015, 22:49   #6
 
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Will this be a mainly coastal SW storm?
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26-02-2015, 23:12   #7
Harry Palmr
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Met E doesn't seem too excited by this, just another wintery blow.
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26-02-2015, 23:15   #8
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level 1 seems about right, thankfully considering its track it doesnt turn into a bomb. I would wait though until tomorrow mornings chart updates just in case
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26-02-2015, 23:25   #9
Oscar Bravo
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Met eireann will have an upgrade on the 0530 update on the website and at 0755 on radio 1. it will be once again nasty along parts of the west coast late Saturday/early sunday. mace head no doubt recording a fairly high gust yet again!
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26-02-2015, 23:32   #10
maquiladora
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Violent storm force on the west coast on the 18Z EURO4, though the model is prone to overdoing things a little.

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27-02-2015, 06:07   #11
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Morning guidance pushing storm a bit further north.

Would hold gust calls from yesterday put place risk zone further north.

It will be a rapidly developing storm as it crosses the country.

A good swathe of 60kt+ gusts, exposed areas to 70kt+

Strongest gusts may be as the storm exits into the North Channel Sat night.

Latest EC @ 48hrs

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27-02-2015, 08:20   #12
maquiladora
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A downgrade due to the track shift on the ECM this morning. The tightest gradient now brushes up along the west-northwest-north coasts rather than pushing further inland as the model showed yesterday. It's also a bit weaker.

Still time for some changes, and would still bring gales inland for a time in the parts of the west/northwest/north I think. But a bit less interesting than it looked yesterday.


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27-02-2015, 08:37   #13
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Not even a level 1 so ... if that downgrade continues
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27-02-2015, 08:56   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weisses View Post
Not even a level 1 so ... if that downgrade continues
As it stands, Met Eireann would probably still issue an orange warning for the west coast if the ECM verified. But yeah further changes are possible.
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27-02-2015, 10:16   #15
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GFS showing 80 - 85 km/h winds max for Saturday ?! ..
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