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03-02-2014, 23:32   #1
M.T. Cranium
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Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

The weather crew have been tracking a rapidly intensifying low that is expected to track northeast across Ireland Tuesday night. By late afternoon this will be near or just southwest of Valentia at 947 mb, and winds from the southeast to south could gust over 120 km/hr near the south coast and in exposed locations inland. In early stages of the storm, heavy rain and southeast to east gales will spread over most regions (30 mm rains could bring rapid onset of flooding; strong winds and high tides could combine to produce another round of coastal flooding).

By later Tuesday evening, with the centre near Shannon, very strong winds will rapidly spread north up the east coast affecting Wicklow and Dublin.

Although some areas will see slack winds for a time Tuesday night, a later phase of the storm will involve moderate to strong westerly winds in most regions.

Although I have started this discussion with a level 2 title, it would not be out of place to mention level 3 concern for coastal flooding and even some isolated wind gusts over 130 km/hr. I am fairly confident that the offshore Kinsale energy platform will record gusts near 90-100 knots and some of the more exposed south coast stations could see 70-80 knots, if brief in duration, due to the forward speed and strong gradient of this storm.

I wanted to start a new thread partly to have editing capability during the late overnight when it may be more possible to assess the exact details of this dangerous storm.

We are of course also concerned about potential for Saturday's deep low.

Last edited by pistolpetes11; 20-03-2014 at 09:41.
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03-02-2014, 23:54   #2
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Did MT just say potentially 100knt gust @ Kinsale Energy just 50km off the South coast, that would be 185km/h, surely not.

I know we're all focusing on our own patch but it does look like South West UK & Northern France are going to take an even bigger hammering than us on Wed morning - strongest winds, largest sea swell,heavy rain & high tides all combining at the same time. So expect to see lots of Sky New reports standing in 3ft of water

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03-02-2014, 23:58   #3
 
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Somerset is still flooded since the last round of storms. Looks like der gona take a hit from this one aswell.
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04-02-2014, 00:04   #4
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Where is Saturdays storm looking likely to hit ?
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04-02-2014, 00:17   #5
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Looks like a double cloud head.

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04-02-2014, 00:21   #6
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Is this a potential Hurricane event?



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

947mb!!
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04-02-2014, 00:22   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
Looks like a double cloud head.

Nearly looks like the eye of a hurricane to me.
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04-02-2014, 00:52   #8
maquiladora
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flynnlives View Post
Is this a potential Hurricane event?
It just means Force 12 (hurricane force) winds at sea. It's not at all unusual with Atlantic lows like this, and those winds won't reach Irish coasts.

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Originally Posted by uncle_sam_ie View Post
Nearly looks like the eye of a hurricane to me.
The darkest area is a patch of dry air. Something you often see with deepening depressions.
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04-02-2014, 01:41   #9
M.T. Cranium
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Yep, those dark circles often appear between 30W and 10W on Atlantic lows, something I've been researching because I have the hunch they are connected to geomagnetic field variables. They are features on infra-red rather than visible images where you would see more low-level cloud disguising the features.

When I said 90-100 knots at the Kinsale platform, this translates to 80 knots at the surface. We'll see what the extreme gust readings are, soon enough. The modelling may show the winds and waves heading to Cornwall and Brittany but the storm makes a fairly steady northeast turn while deepening, so take it seriously if you're anywhere near the south coast and for the Irish Sea, all that excess water has to go somewhere, there again, expect some very large swells and waves.

By the time the 00z models come in, there will only be a few hours of preparation time but we may have a new perspective on this storm by morning. Of course I'll be around all night, it is only supper time here.
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04-02-2014, 02:45   #10
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Thanks for the update MT, very much appreciated. Was about to 'hit the sack' but your warning made me 'hit the charts' it really has picked up, it looks like the south & east coasts are going to get a hammering from this & I'd passed it as I was waiting for Friday night/Saturday morning.

From my perspective the coast of Wexford & all along the Irish sea coast are going to hit a lot worse than we have been hit so far this winter ? would love a bit of your insight on this.

Going to go batten down the hatches now...
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04-02-2014, 06:20   #11
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Not sure if what I'm about to say makes sense but anyway. On BBC there it showed yesterday's low being pushed out north/west as tonight's low moves in. What'll happen to that old system? Will it just fizzle out? Or could it come back with more rain in a few days?
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04-02-2014, 06:47   #12
 
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Met Éireann has warned that another Atlantic storm depression is heading for Ireland today.
It has issued a status orange wind warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Cork, Kerry and Waterford, with gusts of up to 115km/h forecast.

Flooding can be expected along eastern and southern coasts.
A yellow wind warning has been issued for the rest of the country, with gusts of up to 100km/h expected and river flooding likely.
The warnings are valid from 3pm this afternoon until 9am tomorrow..
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04-02-2014, 07:25   #13
 
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What month is this again !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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04-02-2014, 07:31   #14
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What month is this again !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Last month of winter.
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04-02-2014, 08:09   #15
M.T. Cranium
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Once again, I have drawn up a map indicating expected alert levels for tonight's approaching storm.



The south coast will see wind gusts to 130 km/hr and a solid level 2 to borderline level 3 for winds, but more of a potential level 3 for local flooding at the evening high tides. Some heavy rainfalls will add to this flood potential around Cork and Waterford.

The inland south and east coast will be mostly in a level 2 wind and rainfall situation as well as (for the east coast and some parts of the west coast) a level 2 status for coastal flooding although this could increase to level 3 in a few locations, your local flood authorities will of course be your best guide on this, but would be on high alert near the Wicklow and Dublin-Meath coasts at the overnight high tides.

Most of the central to northern regions will barely make it into level 1 wind speeds, with part of that risk coming in a second phase of the storm later on Wednesday, but rainfalls could be a solid level 1 to isolated level 2 here.

Marine areas off the south coast could see force 12 (hurricane) conditions by late afternoon and evening, with force 9-10 likely spreading into the Irish Sea. Western marine areas will actually be at their worst early in the event and will see a reduction in winds towards evening if the low tracks as expected into west Munster and northeastward. I am speculating that the offshore Kinsale energy platform could record gusts in excess of 85 knots around 6 p.m. to midnight, perhaps even into the 90s. This would signal coastal gusts of about 70-80 knots at locations such as Sherkin Island, Roches Point and 50-60 knots at some inland stations but 60-70 knots at more exposed inland locations, and be alert for 80-100 knot gusts on summits of most mountains in Ireland with the higher values likely in the southeast. Anyone venturing above 500m today without a high level of protection should confine their excursions to the hours before 1 p.m. when very strong winds can be expected to begin over exposed areas.

Some thunderstorms may be embedded in the large area of moderate to heavy rain moving inland during the afternoon and early evening, most likely to see lightning would be the southeastern counties and also around Donegal Bay.
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Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 04-02-2014 at 08:14.
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