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03-12-2013, 20:53   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Severe Winds Likely Thursday 5th Dec Morning (Northern areas most at risk)

I think a thread for this is essential, a rapidly developing low pressure system will race from southeast of Greenland to be positioned just east of Aberdeen by Thursday midday having bombed over 35hPa in 24 hours.

To the south of the low will be a very tight pressure gradient with an intense jet-streak aloft.

Winds just above the surface will be incredibly fierce.

Scotland and northern parts of England will be the major focus for the most severe winds but parts of the northern half of Ireland will be in the red zone also.

Just ahead of the cold front passage a tightening of the gradient will lead to a particularly intensive few hours of wind over parts of Ireland, with wind gusts peaking around 9am Thursday morning.

Widespread gusts over Ulster will reach 110-130 km/hr. While i would expect gusts from 100-115 km/hr into northern Leinster including Dublin.

Some wind estimates.
Malin Head could get pretty hard hit, would anticipate seeing a gust between 75-80 knots during Thursday morning.

Dublin Airport: 60/ 65 knot peak gust.

850hPa winds @ 36hrs



925hPa winds @ 36hrs


Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 04-12-2013 at 22:44.
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03-12-2013, 21:50   #2
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Bear a thought for those in the Low Countries as this vicious storm tracks down the North Sea.

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04-12-2013, 10:04   #3
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Estofex have issued a warning.




Quote:
DISCUSSION

... Northern Ireland, Scotland ...

In the exit region of a cyclonically curved jet-stream, reaching over 80 m/s at 300 hPa level, rapid cyclogenesis is forecast over the Atlantic and the center of the low is forecast to be centered just north of Scotland by Thursday 06 UTC. Intense pressure / geopotential gradient will support windspeeds of 40 to 50 m/s in 925 to 850 hPa level. Both GFS and ECMWF simulate marginal CAPE values just behind the main stratiform rain shield, suggesting split-front character. CAPE should be connected to a tongue of moister airmass just ahead of the surface cold front, so that strong forcing might support a compact, linearly oriented, low-topped convective system. With intense vertical wind field, such system could contribute to the "downward mixing" of momentum and extremely severe wind gusts will be well possible, especially over Scotland around 06 UTC. Tornadoes should be possible too given extreme low level wind shear and low cloud bases, but will likely be limited by the lack of isolated supercell mode. For the region with the highest threat, Level 2 seems to be warranted.
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04-12-2013, 10:05   #4
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Met Eireann have issued Orange Warning.

Quote:
National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
West to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 55 to 70kph and gusts of 100 to 120kph tonight

Issued:Wednesday 04 December 2013 09:00
Valid:Thursday 05 December 2013 00:01 to Thursday 05 December 2013 12:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster and Leinster
West to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 45 to 65 kph and gust 80 to 110kph.

Issued:Wednesday 04 December 2013 09:00
Valid:Thursday 05 December 2013 00:01 to Thursday 05 December 2013 12:00
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04-12-2013, 11:40   #5
Iancar29
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I'll go for max gust at malin to be 125kmh
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04-12-2013, 11:52   #6
Sleety_Rain
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iancar29 View Post
I'll go for max gust at malin to be 125kmh
Malin Head: 138 km/hr for me
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04-12-2013, 12:11   #7
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It seems like this one might even reach me down here in Cracow. Severe weather warnings have been issued this morning for heavy snow storms and savage winds for pretty much all of Poland.
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04-12-2013, 12:21   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weathercheck View Post
Malin Head: 138 km/hr for me
This is based on the chance of 925hPa winds getting close to the surface.

A pretty nasty chart with a swathe of 75knot+ over the far north of Ireland.

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04-12-2013, 13:11   #9
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I'm debating with myself here on heading to Malin Head around 3/4am tomorrow morning.. Trying to get someone else to go with me though! First proper storm of the winter and looks to be a good'un around the coast!

I see metoffice now have yellow warning for most of NI with amber warning for east coast, but from that chart above, they should have amber warning for most of northern ireland! Wind gust of 80mph is bound to cause disruption around rush hour in the morning!!
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04-12-2013, 13:38   #10
Iancar29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weathercheck View Post
This is based on the chance of 925hPa winds getting close to the surface.

A pretty nasty chart with a swathe of 75knot+ over the far north of Ireland.

But convection would be needed to bring them down to the surface no? .... and cant see much of that happening.



@Winger_pl ... Hate you pal !!! haha
Hope you have a timelapse or some videos planned for us here!



@tylercollins ... If there was more of a snow risk still for the north i wouldve tried to of gone up for a the DOUBLE event ...
Not much your gonna get in the pitch black though , as long exposures will no doubt look shakey ! ha
Stay safe though if ya do go out!

Last edited by Iancar29; 04-12-2013 at 13:41.
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04-12-2013, 13:45   #11
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I'm going more for the experience Down around the harbour in Malin Head, waves crashing over the wall, then up at the radio tower on the peak of the Island.

That spare room is always available for you
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04-12-2013, 13:48   #12
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Hey IanCar, i think the Estofex forecast alludes to the prospect of some instability ahead of the CF. I would not expect wide spread gusts of 75 knots across NI! But i would expect the odd gust to this level in that region. Especially the exposed Malin Head station.
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04-12-2013, 18:07   #13
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Should be an interesting one to follow in the North Sea.

Quote:
A major storm in the North Atlantic is expected to bring a blast of cold weather to northwestern Europe in the coming days. Despite extremely heavy rain, snow and winds of 130kph, the main concern will be a major storm surge which is expected to coincide with a period of spring high tides.

As the storm develops late on Wednesday and through Thursday, much of Scotland, the Netherlands, northern Germany, Denmark and southern Scandinavia will be buffeted by severe gale force winds.

Strengthening winds through Wednesday will be accompanied by snow which will sweep across Scotland and southern Norway on Thursday afternoon. During the evening and night, snow will impact upon the North Sea coasts of the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark. Blizzard-like conditions will prevail for a time before the snow turns more showery in nature overnight.

The weather is likely to disrupt transport across the region, with airports such as Glasgow, Amsterdam’s Schipol, Hamburg and Copenhagen experiencing delays and cancellations. Most ferries are likely to be delayed or cancelled during Thursday and Friday.

Of greatest concern is the likelihood of a major storm surge, a dome of water produced by a combination of low pressure and, more importantly, severe gale to storm force winds.

Coastal defences are likely to be tested to the limit as a storm surge estimated to be at least 3 metres high coincides with a period of spring high tides. In anticipation of the surge, the Dutch port of Rotterdam’s flood gates are expected to be closed for the first time since they were built in the 1990s.

The region is well used to devastating storm surges, the greatest of which occurred on the night of January 31 1953. A severe storm brought a surge of 5.6 metres. Sea defences in eastern England, the Netherlands and Belgium were overwhelmed. 2,551 people lost their lives, more than 1,800 of those in The Netherlands alone. Another 230 people lost their lives in shipwrecks and other maritime incidents.

There is no suggestion that Thursday and Friday’s surge will be in any way comparable with 1953, but this is likely to be the severest test of defences across the North Sea region in the last 20 years.
http://www.aljazeera.com/weather/201...394125491.html

Red warning for Northern Germany:

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/1/0/D...-Holstein.html

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04-12-2013, 20:24   #14
Sleety_Rain
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Not much chatter on this.

It is going to be a very windy rush-hour tomorrow morning across much of the country. High winds hitting at in-opportune time.

Dublin region still at risk of gusts from 100-110km/hr tomorrow morning, and this will be noticed.

Parts of Ulster should prepare for gusts to 130km/hr.

The system will pass through rapidly so winds will abate tomorrow afternoon.
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04-12-2013, 20:25   #15
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Would I be right in saying that winds will being picking up between 3am & 6am in the North West? I'm heading to Malin Head later and just want to make sure I get there in good time!

Also Amber Warning in force for East coast NI from Met Office UK, and Amber warning from Met Eireann for Donegal.

Meteo Alarm going for this:

Weather warnings: Ireland North-West
valid from 04.12.2013 05:00 CET Until 05.12.2013 06:00 CET
Wind Awareness Level: Orange
"Winds of Beaufort force 10 expected"
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