Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
25-10-2012, 08:19   #1
Wicklow Weather
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 83
STORM POTENTIAL 31st Oct - 3rd Nov.

Our reasonably reliable friends Mr GFS and Mr ECM have a similar set up but over a differing 72hrs on storm potential. JMA and NOGAPS are also on board and early indications of lows of 960mb to 975mb are showing up depending on model.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...fs-0-174.png?0
Wicklow Weather is offline  
Advertisement
25-10-2012, 08:47   #2
munsterlegend
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 4,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wicklow Weather View Post
Our reasonably reliable friends Mr GFS and Mr ECM have a similar set up but over a differing 72hrs on storm potential. JMA and NOGAPS are also on board and early indications of lows of 960mb to 975mb are showing up depending on model.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...fs-0-174.png?0

MT in his forecast doesn't feel it's worthy of an early warning. still a long way off i suppose.
munsterlegend is offline  
25-10-2012, 09:11   #3
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,324
Sunday 28th looks rather windy also ... it's too far off and too uncertain at present to raise much of an alarm for 31 Oct to 3 Nov but risk is being watched. Low confidence in details or timing beyond Monday.

Northeast U.S. about to get slammed by "Sandy" in time frame of 28-31 Oct, anyone with travel plans to NYC, BOS or region should be aware of possible flight delays or cancellations. This could be a high impact storm.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
26-10-2012, 14:13   #4
Storm 10
Registered User
 
Storm 10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,974
MT warning in his forecast today of possible stormy conditions on Wednesday
Storm 10 is offline  
26-10-2012, 21:46   #5
Tenger
Moderator
 
Tenger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 8,000
Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Sunday 28th looks rather windy also ... it's too far off and too uncertain at present to raise much of an alarm for 31 Oct to 3 Nov but risk is being watched. Low confidence in details or timing beyond Monday.

Northeast U.S. about to get slammed by "Sandy" in time frame of 28-31 Oct, anyone with travel plans to NYC, BOS or region should be aware of possible flight delays or cancellations. This could be a high impact storm.
Not just Sandy......there are weather systems moving from inland to meet Sandy on the North East coast around Tuesday.
Some US airlines have already issued disruption warning to passengers.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/mode...CPIN_96_HR.png
Tenger is offline  
Advertisement
27-10-2012, 01:10   #6
Storm 10
Registered User
 
Storm 10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,974
This warning was for Ireland not the US
Storm 10 is offline  
27-10-2012, 01:18   #7
Nabber
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,296
Models are showing a low system to our North. About 110hrs to 120hs out.

GFS is a bit more extreme than the rest with 964 center. UKMO & ECMF have it at 976.

Interesting one to watch.
Nabber is offline  
27-10-2012, 13:08   #8
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nabber View Post
Models are showing a low system to our North. About 110hrs to 120hs out.

GFS is a bit more extreme than the rest with 964 center. UKMO & ECMF have it at 976.

Interesting one to watch.
Yep, looking like we will see nothing major from this but it is going to be interesting to see how the models are handling this pretty big drop in MSLP. This morning's ECM has a 24hr fall of 31.0 hPa at 59 54.431n_007 35.929w, (which lies between the Faroe Islands and the Hebrides) between 0z 30th to 0z 31st.



Data from NOAA
Attached Images
File Type: png graph.PNG (11.4 KB, 3140 views)

Last edited by Deep Easterly; 27-10-2012 at 13:20.
Deep Easterly is offline  
Thanks from:
27-10-2012, 20:36   #9
Wicklow Weather
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 83
Met Eireann mentioned this system in the 6 news forecast this evening, briefly saying it could bring heavy rain and stormy conditions.
Wicklow Weather is offline  
Advertisement
27-10-2012, 20:57   #10
Tenger
Moderator
 
Tenger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 8,000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wicklow Weather View Post
Met Eireann mentioned this system in the 6 news forecast this evening, briefly saying it could bring heavy rain and stormy conditions.
I assume this weather will hit us around Thursday?
Tenger is offline  
28-10-2012, 09:46   #11
Ghost Train
Custom User Title
 
Ghost Train's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 32,200
Met eireann forcast for tuesday
Ghost Train is offline  
28-10-2012, 10:58   #12
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,999
A bit nippy out that's for sure!
Iancar29 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
28-10-2012, 11:12   #13
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghost Train View Post
Met eireann forcast for tuesday
maquiladora is offline  
28-10-2012, 12:33   #14
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,142
Models seem to be hinting at a possible wave development towards the end of the week and although plausible, still a long way off. Still, something to maybe keep an eye on in these utterly drab weather times.


From netweather.tv
Attached Images
File Type: png h850t850eu.png (70.4 KB, 2408 views)
Deep Easterly is offline  
28-10-2012, 16:36   #15
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,324
Current 12z GFS shows potential for 60-70 mph WNW wind gusts in Galway, Mayo and Donegal, nearby parts of other counties, on Thursday ... at this time range, not much point in a mid-day advance alert in forecast thread but will have one for certain if this model trend continues.

"Sandy" will largely die out in a sort of cage being created for her over Hudson Bay and Quebec, some of that energy will escape into the blocked westerlies as they ooze through gaps around Newfoundland, but most of Sandy's energy will be dissipated into the arctic vortex around Baffin Island, so this stormy activity over Europe later in the week is all caused by the retrogression of upper features involved in the Sandy scenario, opening up a void over the Atlantic between Iceland and Ireland that energy dropping southeast from very high latitudes (probably with a Pacific origin way back) can exploit.

In my research model, energy peaks at full moon (the current frontal trough) and northern max (timed for 2-3 Nov) are often significant for storminess in the North Atlantic near timing lines, at present the relevant timing line for western Europe is North Sea to central Med. Thus timing of energy peaks will be on the order of -24h relative to signals. I keep track of oscillations in these timing lines and the mean position of the one in question is further west so that long-term the signal can be expected to phase with low pressure signals over Ireland, for example this proves to be the case for full and new moons in Dec-Jan at Malin Head which I have already finished studying for the period 1973-2011. The pressure amplitude was surprisingly large, about 15 mb over that time period in the two months closest to phase of full moon and northern max, as well as new moon and southern max.

I'm throwing this into the discussion because I may from time to time insert comments like "new moon event crossing timing line 3" and timing line 3 is the one relevant to your region, I number them from the prime system timing line in the Great Lakes region eastward around the hemisphere. Timing line 2 is often aligned from eastern Newfoundland to the Azores. All of them are curved to converge on a point similar to the North Magnetic Pole. There are 9 in total (this is entirely empirical rather than theoretical) and as they encircle the hemisphere, I have timing line 8 off to my west and timing line 9 over the lee trough of the Rockies.

Timing line 4 may feature in some discussions because it runs on average from Jan Mayen to the eastern Baltic to the Caspian Sea and if the entire system is shifted west then it can be as close as east Iceland to Shetlands to Germany.

Bottom line for now -- gale alert 70% likely for Thursday 1st Nov
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(4) thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet