STORM POTENTIAL 31st Oct - 3rd Nov.

Wicklow Weather

Our reasonably reliable friends Mr GFS and Mr ECM have a similar set up but over a differing 72hrs on storm potential. JMA and NOGAPS are also on board and early indications of lows of 960mb to 975mb are showing up depending on model.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012102500/gfs-0-174.png?0

munsterlegend

Wicklow Weather wrote: »

Our reasonably reliable friends Mr GFS and Mr ECM have a similar set up but over a differing 72hrs on storm potential. JMA and NOGAPS are also on board and early indications of lows of 960mb to 975mb are showing up depending on model.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012102500/gfs-0-174.png?0

MT in his forecast doesn't feel it's worthy of an early warning. still a long way off i suppose.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday 28th looks rather windy also ... it's too far off and too uncertain at present to raise much of an alarm for 31 Oct to 3 Nov but risk is being watched. Low confidence in details or timing beyond Monday.

Northeast U.S. about to get slammed by "Sandy" in time frame of 28-31 Oct, anyone with travel plans to NYC, BOS or region should be aware of possible flight delays or cancellations. This could be a high impact storm.

Storm 10

MT warning in his forecast today of possible stormy conditions on Wednesday

Tenger

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sunday 28th looks rather windy also ... it's too far off and too uncertain at present to raise much of an alarm for 31 Oct to 3 Nov but risk is being watched. Low confidence in details or timing beyond Monday.

Northeast U.S. about to get slammed by "Sandy" in time frame of 28-31 Oct, anyone with travel plans to NYC, BOS or region should be aware of possible flight delays or cancellations. This could be a high impact storm.

Not just Sandy......there are weather systems moving from inland to meet Sandy on the North East coast around Tuesday.
Some US airlines have already issued disruption warning to passengers.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/10/26/12/GFS_3_2012102612_F132_PCPIN_96_HR.png

Storm 10

This warning was for Ireland not the US

Nabber

Models are showing a low system to our North. About 110hrs to 120hs out.

GFS is a bit more extreme than the rest with 964 center:rolleyes:. UKMO & ECMF have it at 976.

Interesting one to watch.

Deep Easterly

Nabber wrote: »

Models are showing a low system to our North. About 110hrs to 120hs out.

GFS is a bit more extreme than the rest with 964 center:rolleyes:. UKMO & ECMF have it at 976.

Interesting one to watch.

Yep, looking like we will see nothing major from this but it is going to be interesting to see how the models are handling this pretty big drop in MSLP. This morning's ECM has a 24hr fall of 31.0 hPa at 59 54.431n_007 35.929w, (which lies between the Faroe Islands and the Hebrides) between 0z 30th to 0z 31st.



Data from NOAA

Wicklow Weather

Met Eireann mentioned this system in the 6 news forecast this evening, briefly saying it could bring heavy rain and stormy conditions.

Tenger

Wicklow Weather wrote: »

Met Eireann mentioned this system in the 6 news forecast this evening, briefly saying it could bring heavy rain and stormy conditions.

I assume this weather will hit us around Thursday?

Ghost Train

Met eireann forcast for tuesday

Iancar29

A bit nippy out that's for sure!

maquiladora

Ghost Train wrote: »

Met eireann forcast for tuesday

Deep Easterly

Models seem to be hinting at a possible wave development towards the end of the week and although plausible, still a long way off. Still, something to maybe keep an eye on in these utterly drab weather times.


From netweather.tv

M.T. Cranium

Current 12z GFS shows potential for 60-70 mph WNW wind gusts in Galway, Mayo and Donegal, nearby parts of other counties, on Thursday ... at this time range, not much point in a mid-day advance alert in forecast thread but will have one for certain if this model trend continues.

"Sandy" will largely die out in a sort of cage being created for her over Hudson Bay and Quebec, some of that energy will escape into the blocked westerlies as they ooze through gaps around Newfoundland, but most of Sandy's energy will be dissipated into the arctic vortex around Baffin Island, so this stormy activity over Europe later in the week is all caused by the retrogression of upper features involved in the Sandy scenario, opening up a void over the Atlantic between Iceland and Ireland that energy dropping southeast from very high latitudes (probably with a Pacific origin way back) can exploit.

In my research model, energy peaks at full moon (the current frontal trough) and northern max (timed for 2-3 Nov) are often significant for storminess in the North Atlantic near timing lines, at present the relevant timing line for western Europe is North Sea to central Med. Thus timing of energy peaks will be on the order of -24h relative to signals. I keep track of oscillations in these timing lines and the mean position of the one in question is further west so that long-term the signal can be expected to phase with low pressure signals over Ireland, for example this proves to be the case for full and new moons in Dec-Jan at Malin Head which I have already finished studying for the period 1973-2011. The pressure amplitude was surprisingly large, about 15 mb over that time period in the two months closest to phase of full moon and northern max, as well as new moon and southern max.

I'm throwing this into the discussion because I may from time to time insert comments like "new moon event crossing timing line 3" and timing line 3 is the one relevant to your region, I number them from the prime system timing line in the Great Lakes region eastward around the hemisphere. Timing line 2 is often aligned from eastern Newfoundland to the Azores. All of them are curved to converge on a point similar to the North Magnetic Pole. There are 9 in total (this is entirely empirical rather than theoretical) and as they encircle the hemisphere, I have timing line 8 off to my west and timing line 9 over the lee trough of the Rockies.

Timing line 4 may feature in some discussions because it runs on average from Jan Mayen to the eastern Baltic to the Caspian Sea and if the entire system is shifted west then it can be as close as east Iceland to Shetlands to Germany.

Bottom line for now -- gale alert 70% likely for Thursday 1st Nov

Wicklow Weather

Looking good for some stormy weather later this week especially for Northern have of the country

M.T. Cranium

Model chop and change cycle has now brought us to a very windy outlook for Thursday and Friday. Feeling the need to post a strongly worded alert in the forecast section.

ninebeanrows

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Model chop and change cycle has now brought us to a very windy outlook for Thursday and Friday. Feeling the need to post a strongly worded alert in the forecast section.

Yeah some interesting low centres circulating around that upper low. Quite markedly low thickness levels for this time of year too. Which will could enable some locally wintry precipitation to the surface during the period.

Will be keeping an eye on further model runs as the 12z GFS can often be excessive in winding up these secondary low centres.

ninebeanrows

ECM develops a very tight low centre north-west of Scotland Friday.

Harps

Yeah looks like an interesting spell ahead at long last, its been almost totally calm so far this Autumn

Doesn't look too severe on current guidance but its a messy looking setup so there could be a surprise in store yet. High tides at the moment and trees still have a lot of leaves so its one to watch

On a somewhat related note, HIRLAM data seems to no longer be available, says on meteociel they're stopping releasing free data, a real loss if its gone everywhere

ninebeanrows

Harps wrote: »

Yeah looks like an interesting spell ahead at long last, its been almost totally calm so far this Autumn

Doesn't look too severe on current guidance but its a messy looking setup so there could be a surprise in store yet. High tides at the moment and trees still have a lot of leaves so its one to watch

On a somewhat related note, HIRLAM data seems to no longer be available, says on meteociel says they're stopping releasing free data, a real loss if its gone everywhere

They are rolling out a new model, i think the old Hirlam is being replaced by new Harmonie model. Maybe they will provide some data once it is released?

Hopefully anyway, see no reason why they would not provide some basic data sets.

NIALL D

Harps wrote: »

Yeah looks like an interesting spell ahead at long last, its been almost totally calm so far this Autumn

Doesn't look too severe on current guidance but its a messy looking setup so there could be a surprise in store yet. High tides at the moment and trees still have a lot of leaves so its one to watch

On a somewhat related note, HIRLAM data seems to no longer be available, says on meteociel they're stopping releasing free data, a real loss if its gone everywhere

trees are almost completely naked around here :pac:
not a leaf in sight !!!

_Whimsical_

Its quite windy in Galway tonight, although it's the 30th so possibly unrelated to this weather prediction you're all talking about.

Victor Meldrew

MTC has used the "S" word several times in today's forecast, for next week (Sunday & Monday)

And the site has not gone into meltdown....

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Victor Meldrew wrote: »

MTC has used the "S" word several times in today's forecast, for next week (Sunday & Monday)

And the site has not gone into meltdown....

Oh it will happen

Storm 10

Just wondering where Sandy goes from now, is there any possibility of its remains heading in our direction

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Storm 10 wrote: »

Just wondering where Sandy goes from now, is there any possibility of its remains heading in our direction

I saw someone say it was progged to go north of Scotland, the remenants that is

Tenger

Storm 10 wrote: »

Just wondering where Sandy goes from now, is there any possibility of its remains heading in our direction

Doubtful. The current track has it heading North-West to hit the Great Lakes region, at this point it should be losing strength and cohesion.

There already is a cold front off out North West coast so that will be hitting us over the next 2 days.

Wolfe_IRE

Victor Meldrew wrote: »

MTC has used the "S" word several times in today's forecast, for next week (Sunday & Monday)

And the site has not gone into meltdown....

Probably because north and west were mentioned in the context of snow potential.

Personally, i don't see any snow risk away from 300m asl+ in the north and west at the weekend. Even then, it will be a sleety mix. Errigal, Dublin/Wicklow mts and other summits may turn white for a time. The gfs for once is less dramatic than the ECM in relation to snow potential.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Probably because north and west were mentioned in the context of snow potential.

Personally, i don't see any snow risk away from 300m asl+ in the north and west at the weekend. Even then, it will be a sleety mix. Errigal, Dublin/Wicklow mts and other summits may turn white for a time. The gfs for once is less dramatic than the ECM in relation to snow potential.

72 people viewing in the past few minutes mind, it has been really low recently

Wolfe_IRE

t|nt|n wrote: »

72 people viewing in the past few minutes mind, it has been really low recently

They're out there, I can smell them. Lurking in the bushes waiting to pounce on the first mention of sn.....frozen precipitation I mean

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

They're out there, I can smell them. Lurking in the bushes waiting to pounce on the first mention of sn.....frozen precipitation I mean

That was a close one !!

I think we need a codeword

Mr Benevolent

t|nt|n wrote: »

That was a close one !!

I think we need a codeword

Graupel.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Confab wrote: »

Graupel.

I was thinking something like "knickers"

"I woke up and my garden was full of knickers"

"I had knickers up to my waist, what a day"

delw

"I made a knickerman with the kids today" just doesn't have the same ring to it

pauldry

sccccccchhhhhhhhhhhhhhneachtaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!:D

knickers is good.

had a knickersball fight in 2011

alfa beta

thunderknickers :eek:

Wolfe_IRE

Knickers possible on high ground with wet knickers at sea level.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Knickers possible on high ground with wet knickers at sea level.

Winner

Sponge Bob

We are no longer allowed to annoy the knickerwabbits. By order.

airman737

Knickerflakes, knickerploughs, knickerstorm.......

Deep Easterly

Harps wrote: »

On a somewhat related note, HIRLAM data seems to no longer be available, says on meteociel they're stopping releasing free data, a real loss if its gone everywhere

The same HIRLAM data still available on the Spanish Met Office (AeMET) site though does not cover the same wide area as it did on Meteociel.

http://www.aemet.es/en/eltiempo/prediccion/modelosnumericos/hirlam?opc2=sup&opc3=vi

The EMHI HIRLAM charts still up as well which cover most of Northern Europe and the NE Atlantic region:

http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,419

Cantona's Collars

airman737 wrote: »

Knickerflakes, knickerploughs, knickerstorm.......

Slushy knickers,knickers starting to stick,I think we may use a different code word-the imagery is a bit too :eek::eek:

Calibos

All I'm saying is...."Don't eat the yellow knickers!!"

Calibos

Should we now call the Isle of Man the.....

...Knicker Blocker Glory????

Tom Cruises Left Nut

What have I started

Spindle

There is a whiff of knickers in the air today..........

Gets coat. Calls taxi, and leaves.

Larbre34

Can someone please fire up a feckin chart and put a stop to this daftness.

Only 151 days of snó potential to go..........:rolleyes:

Su Campu

It's too cold for knickers.....

Larbre34

Su Campu wrote: »

It's too cold for knickers.....

Et tu Su? I dont believe it

M.T. Cranium

Urgent to mods -- update thread title my suggestion

Level 2 ... Severe wind gusts likely in north on Thursday, may repeat Saturday

Urgent to readers ... model consensus now shows potential for very strong wind gusts in Donegal, Mayo and other parts of Connacht, Ulster on Thursday, arriving mid-day and translating east and southeast by evening.

May not be as severe in west Munster as a track from Donegal Bay to Dublin can be inferred from guidance.

Wind gusts to 120 km/hr (75 mph) appear possible, with wind-driven hail showers, snow on hills, almost a blizzard condition possible at higher elevations of northwest.

Saturday could be a total reload with Friday in between a more moderate strong wind continuation once the Thursday night gusts settle down.

Over to forecast thread for update now.