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30-07-2012, 18:44   #1
Storm 10
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Potential for severe thunderstorm/tornadic activity in East Wednesday AM (01/08)

On the six news tonight Evelyn showed a storm coming in from the West, it was marked as a storm on screen, coming in Wednesday through Thursday, she said we were in for some windy episodes this week.

Where did this storm come from, it was like a winter forecast.

Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 31-07-2012 at 21:59.
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30-07-2012, 18:56   #2
Lucreto
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Wonderful

I got a driving test on Wednesday.
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30-07-2012, 19:13   #3
DOCARCH
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Well it will be August! Straight from Spring to Autumn, miss Summer, maybe we''ll see that next year!
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30-07-2012, 19:15   #4
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I seen an august start with a Force 9 so why not another.

Must see the next UKMO Fax..the last one shows it off the coast

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...harts;type=fax

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30-07-2012, 21:50   #5
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This is a joke right . Surely the Summer cant get any worse its never ending this year. Never thought I would see a storm come in the Summer
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30-07-2012, 22:21   #6
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Nope, a low pressure system will centre over the nw third of Ireland on weds and thurs it seems. However the packed isobars appear to be forecast along the w and nw quadrant of the lows centre meaning the winds associated with the packed isobars will be out on the Atlantic.

Maybe Evelyn is trending towards the packed Isobars being over the country instead, hence a storm like.

Maybe she just wants those barbies and deckchairs and trampolines secured properly _in case_ ....the sensible woman.

At the time of writing there is nothing on Meteoalarm or on Estofex. I'll be watching for a change to the UKMO Fax from the midday run below.



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30-07-2012, 23:51   #7
 
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Yes. There to the west of us on the 18Z GFS run. Then, not surprisingly, it wants to hang around well into the BH weekend..

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31-07-2012, 01:36   #8
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I reckon it will just be a blustery oul yoke that stalls on an eastward track with a few rotating fronts. It was flagged up by Met É on Sunday as such.

Dismal for the time of year but unremarkable save as 2-2.5 dirty days of unseasonable but sadly not unusual weather.
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31-07-2012, 11:39   #9
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Hurricane Charlie payed us a visit in August 1986 so no surprises there about getting storms in Summer.

I remember a storm in June a few years ago, the trees were heavy with leaves and so a lot of trees snapped in two from gale force winds, not to mention the ground covered with fallen leaves..in June!!

The only thing predictable about the weather in this country is that it's unpredictable.

The longest Winter I ever spent was a Summer in Ireland!

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31-07-2012, 14:05   #10
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No big change today. Still looks blustery more than stormy with the strongest winds thurs and offshore Belmullet.
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31-07-2012, 15:08   #11
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FUNNEL CLOUDs POssible! :D

I suppose all concentration will be on this thread so heres my convective thoughts also...

From early tomorrow we have a decent front making away into the SW heading NNE . LI in the range from 0 to -3 in many places with even -4 in some parts to.
Cape figures will be around 500 j mark , system is passing through a bit too early for peak heating but still decent.

What im excited about though is the DLS ( deep layer shear) and LLS ( significant tornado parameter ) are decent too!



LLS...
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attac...1&d=1343743900



So not only could there be a nice few rumbles , a funnel cloud or even weak tornado is possible! ...

Heres my risk area for tomorrow in Estofex style



Trying not to get too excited yet but ye, so far so good !

Thoughts people!!?
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31-07-2012, 15:38   #12
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eh, i'm in a caravan in youghal. slightly getting scared now
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31-07-2012, 15:47   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sunbabe08 View Post
eh, i'm in a caravan in youghal. slightly getting scared now
Ah no need to worry , just keep an eye on radar and you be grand ..

and anchor down
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31-07-2012, 19:12   #14
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Looks potentially stormy in Dublin around noon to 2 pm (Wed 1st) as the front activates, we'll be keeping a close watch on developments. Otherwise, a lot of the stronger effects of the system will be out to sea and right now it is probably blowing around 40-50 knots at 20W but these winds tend to fan out into a slack gradient to the east of the low, at times tomorrow some gusts to 35 knots might reach outer west coast but the main effect of the system will be to activate the cold front which is currently moving into the west. Some mdoerate bursts of showery rain could develop overnight around Cork, Limerick and later Waterford, but it's after 0900h around Carlow-Wexford that the system is likely to intensify somewhat and I think the greatest potential for a heavy or even severe storm would be in Kildare, Dublin and Meath from 1100 to 1500h, after which the system will be offshore to the east, remnants could reach east Ulster in the afternoon. Donegal and Mayo are probably in a very slight risk zone for a blustery thundershower in phase with the eastern activity.

Thursday might also prove to be interesting with unstable moist air subjected to some daytime heating and perhaps locally intense showers or thunderstorms in counties around Longford, Offaly, Laois, Kildare and Westmeath.
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31-07-2012, 19:36   #15
Iancar29
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from Tony Gilbert from UKWW at 1730
http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/foru...52#entry815252


Quote:
Slight Risk of Thunderstorms UK & Ireland 06Z-20Z Weds 1st Aug 2012

Confidence Level; Medium

Stationary surface low 980mb west of Ireland is sustained (neither filling or deepening). Weak upper troughing nudges east
though with limited influence within this outlook. Moist surface plume is advected north from Biscay ahead of the cold
front. Moderate upper jet crosses eastern sector of Ireland early in period then along to Wales/ NE UK regions later in the day.
Strongest lift along the cold front is generated under a sharply diffluent front left exit region. This looks to translate
a path for stronger dynamic lift from SE Ireland through to central Wales and then on to NE UK.
Some overlay of instability to vertical shear looks likely. Though all in all most of this overlay looks to see no more
than 40kts at 500mb so only border line to any isolated storm cell development. UKMO fax chart indicates a small surface
wave over central east Ireland very early in the day where there will likely be some potential for tornado development.

Low level shear for the cold fronts progress across northern UK looks interesting with 10kt southerly surface vector
overrun by 32kts SW vector at 925 mb. So in short a good condition for low level wind fields to exist.
Max convective gusts are calculated at around 35kts. Some small hail possible though freezing level looks rather elevated

ATM.
All in all looks like the highest risk for a tornado event will be Ireland in association with the surface wave 06Z-09Z
and the most acute period for lift in line with the upper divergent jet
.Some monitoring for region just north of Humber may
become a risk zone later in period.


I like his risk area map ... looks familiar...
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