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29-08-2011, 09:55   #1
maquiladora
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Hurricane KATIA

This should become Tropical Storm Katia later today and is forecast to become a hurricane in the next few days.



000
WTNT22 KNHC 290841
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 26.3W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.





Storms that get classified this far east usually recurve out to sea but there has been some exceptions. Worth keeping an eye on.

Last edited by maquiladora; 29-08-2011 at 10:13.
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29-08-2011, 10:55   #2
 
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This has much longer to build up that Irene and also because it has started off at such a southern point it has exceptionally warm seas from which to grow. If it stays south for long enough this one could be much more dangerous to the USA than Irene was!
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29-08-2011, 12:00   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheInquisitor View Post
If it stays south for long enough this one could be much more dangerous to the USA than Irene was!
At the moment its not looking like it will stay south. Would need a stronger ridge or something else that the models aren't currently showing to be a threat to the US, but its a long way off so who knows.

06Z GFS recurves it as a major. Bermuda and Canada more at risk if something like this came off.

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29-08-2011, 12:26   #4
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As a matter of interest is this an above average Hurricane season so far? or in line with previous years?
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29-08-2011, 14:42   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by munsterlegend View Post
As a matter of interest is this an above average Hurricane season so far? or in line with previous years?
Its above average due to the number of tropical storms that have been named. However Irene was the only hurricane so far, so that part of the statistics isnt above normal.
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29-08-2011, 18:43   #6
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Today is the 6-year anniversary Hurricane Katrina's landfall near New Orleans. Katia is the name that was selected to replace Katrina. And during the next 12 hours, TD 12 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Katia.
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29-08-2011, 20:05   #7
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12Z ECM is on the 'roids.

Has TD12/'Katia' moving much faster and also further south than on the 0Z and and ends the run leaving Katia as an absolute monster.



Potential threat to NE US/Canada/Bermuda on that run.

(Don't take any of this too seriously. The models were showing Irene as a Gulf of Mexico storm at one point. )
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30-08-2011, 04:25   #8
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../300240.shtml?
000
WTNT42 KNHC 300240
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 29 2011

AT THE TIME OF THE SATELLITE FIXES AT 00Z...A LARGE CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPED ABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION...
WHICH RESULTED IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM
SAB AND T2.0/30 KT WITH A DATA-T NUMBER OF 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB.
HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME THE CURVED BAND HAS DISSIPATED...AND THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DEVOLVED INTO MORE OF A SHEAR PATTERN. A
SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND JUST WEST OF
THE CENTER...BUT ONE THUNDERSTORM DOES NOT MAKE A TROPICAL STORM.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.


THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/13 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...BUT THERE ARE SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE
GFDL...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MOVE THE DEPRESSION THE
FASTEST...WHEREAS THE GFS...HWRF...AND NOGAPS ARE SLOWER.
HOWEVER...THE TREND IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO
WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N55W AND LIFT IT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST SOONER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS RESULTS IN LESS OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS ALSO FORECAST TO
CHANGE ITS CURRENT NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION BY 72 HOURS. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
4 DAYS...AND THEN SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY TURN MORE WESTWARD BY DAY
5 AS A NARROW RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS BASICALLY ON TRACK...THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.


THE EROSION OF CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAS LIKELY BEEN DUE A
NARROW INTRUSION OF DRY AIR COMING IN THE FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...ALL AVAILABLE DIAGNOSTIC AND MODEL FORECAST DATA INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE IS SURROUNDED BY VERY MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO RECOVER LATER TONIGHT AND FOR THE SYSTEM TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT.
AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SHARPLY DECREASE...
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE VENTILATION PROCESS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO AT LEAST STEADILY INTENSIFY AND
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...
LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 11.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 11.8N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 12.8N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 13.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 14.8N 41.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 16.4N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 18.3N 52.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 20.0N 57.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Last edited by eilejh; 30-08-2011 at 04:36.
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30-08-2011, 09:31   #9
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Yep, looks like a slight delay on the upgrade to TS status, should happen later. today

Intensity forecasts. GFDL seems too aggresive. 160mph and still rising at 132 hours.

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30-08-2011, 09:54   #10
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Katia is born.

Quote:
Tropical Storm KATIA
...NEW TROPICAL STORM MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 30
Location: 11.8°N 31.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT...WITH
A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NOW SITUATED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE 06Z DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 2.5/35 KT...AND ON
THIS BASIS THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE
STRUCTURE OF KATIA IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 15-20 KT OF
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO...AND AFTER THAT TIME STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD COMMENCE
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD THIS CYCLE...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AS WELL. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
INCLUDES THE HFIP INTENSITY AIDS.

A TIMELY AMSR-E PASS FROM 0326Z WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WAS A BIT NORTH
OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/15...AS
KATIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
CONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT THERE ARE SOME FORWARD SPEED
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ON THE FAST SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE AND THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A SLOW OUTLIER. FOR THIS
CYCLE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...
AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE NHC FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR OR A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 11.8N 31.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 13.5N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 14.4N 40.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 15.3N 43.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 17.0N 49.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 18.5N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
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30-08-2011, 10:36   #11
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Thanks Maquiladora for the updates.

Haven't really followed hurricane season before. Is it too early to say the likely path?
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30-08-2011, 11:00   #12
maquiladora
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Quote:
Originally Posted by munsterlegend View Post
Thanks Maquiladora for the updates.

Haven't really followed hurricane season before. Is it too early to say the likely path?
There is good model agreement on the track for the next 3 days or so, beyond that then it's a bit too early to say.
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30-08-2011, 13:07   #13
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I THink Katia will become the first Cat. 5 of the season!
SO much fuel ahead of it..
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30-08-2011, 21:58   #14
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( Could a mod please update the thread title? Thanks)


...KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 30
Location: 12.7°N 35.4°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb

000
WTNT42 KNHC 302040
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

KATIA CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH
INCREASING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-DEFINED BANDING
FEATURES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE
NORTH...WEST...AND SOUTH OF THE STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY...
AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. KATIA WILL BE MOVING
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 DEG C AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING APPEARS
TO BE LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION...285/17...IS ONLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ARE
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE PRODUCED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SOUTH OF THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ON THE BASIS OF AN ASCAT PASS FROM
EARLIER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 12.7N 35.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 13.3N 37.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 14.1N 41.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 14.9N 44.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.7N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 17.5N 52.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 19.5N 56.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 21.5N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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31-08-2011, 01:33   #15
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Cone of Uncertainty

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...daynl#contents
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