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Hurricane KATIA

  • 29-08-2011 8:55am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭


    This should become Tropical Storm Katia later today and is forecast to become a hurricane in the next few days.

    084125W5_NL_sm.gif

    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 290841
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
    0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2011

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 26.3W AT 29/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    at201112_5day.gif

    at201112_model.gif

    Storms that get classified this far east usually recurve out to sea but there has been some exceptions. Worth keeping an eye on.


«134

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    This has much longer to build up that Irene and also because it has started off at such a southern point it has exceptionally warm seas from which to grow. If it stays south for long enough this one could be much more dangerous to the USA than Irene was!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    If it stays south for long enough this one could be much more dangerous to the USA than Irene was!

    At the moment its not looking like it will stay south. Would need a stronger ridge or something else that the models aren't currently showing to be a threat to the US, but its a long way off so who knows.

    06Z GFS recurves it as a major. Bermuda and Canada more at risk if something like this came off.

    2d1r1ir.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    As a matter of interest is this an above average Hurricane season so far? or in line with previous years?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,313 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    As a matter of interest is this an above average Hurricane season so far? or in line with previous years?

    Its above average due to the number of tropical storms that have been named. However Irene was the only hurricane so far, so that part of the statistics isnt above normal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Today is the 6-year anniversary Hurricane Katrina's landfall near New Orleans. Katia is the name that was selected to replace Katrina. And during the next 12 hours, TD 12 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Katia.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ECM is on the 'roids.

    Has TD12/'Katia' moving much faster and also further south than on the 0Z and and ends the run leaving Katia as an absolute monster.

    12zeurotropical850mbvor.gif

    Potential threat to NE US/Canada/Bermuda on that run.

    (Don't take any of this too seriously. The models were showing Irene as a Gulf of Mexico storm at one point. ;) )


  • Registered Users Posts: 293 ✭✭eilejh


    Latest discussion
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/300240.shtml?
    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 300240
    TCDAT2

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
    1100 PM AST MON AUG 29 2011

    AT THE TIME OF THE SATELLITE FIXES AT 00Z...A LARGE CURVED
    CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPED ABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION...
    WHICH RESULTED IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM
    SAB AND T2.0/30 KT WITH A DATA-T NUMBER OF 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB.
    HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME THE CURVED BAND HAS DISSIPATED...AND THE
    CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DEVOLVED INTO MORE OF A SHEAR PATTERN. A
    SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND JUST WEST OF
    THE CENTER...BUT ONE THUNDERSTORM DOES NOT MAKE A TROPICAL STORM.
    THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.


    THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/13 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF VISIBLE AND
    MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN
    EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE
    NEXT 5 DAYS...BUT THERE ARE SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE
    GFDL...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MOVE THE DEPRESSION THE
    FASTEST...WHEREAS THE GFS...HWRF...AND NOGAPS ARE SLOWER.
    HOWEVER...THE TREND IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO
    WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N55W AND LIFT IT OUT TO THE
    NORTHEAST SOONER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS RESULTS IN LESS OF A
    WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS ALSO FORECAST TO
    CHANGE ITS CURRENT NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO AN EAST-WEST
    ORIENTATION BY 72 HOURS. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
    KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
    4 DAYS...AND THEN SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY TURN MORE WESTWARD BY DAY
    5 AS A NARROW RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
    SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS BASICALLY ON TRACK...THE NEW NHC FORECAST
    IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.


    THE EROSION OF CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAS LIKELY BEEN DUE A
    NARROW INTRUSION OF DRY AIR COMING IN THE FROM THE NORTHEAST.
    HOWEVER...ALL AVAILABLE DIAGNOSTIC AND MODEL FORECAST DATA INDICATE
    THAT THE CYCLONE IS SURROUNDED BY VERY MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR WITH
    HUMIDITY VALUES OF 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
    DEEP CONVECTION TO RECOVER LATER TONIGHT AND FOR THE SYSTEM TO
    REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
    MODERATE
    NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE FOR THE
    NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT.
    AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SHARPLY DECREASE...
    AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
    SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE VENTILATION PROCESS
    SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO AT LEAST STEADILY INTENSIFY AND
    BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...
    LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 30/0300Z 11.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 30/1200Z 11.8N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 31/0000Z 12.8N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 31/1200Z 13.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 01/0000Z 14.8N 41.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
    72H 02/0000Z 16.4N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
    96H 03/0000Z 18.3N 52.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
    120H 04/0000Z 20.0N 57.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Yep, looks like a slight delay on the upgrade to TS status, should happen later. today

    Intensity forecasts. GFDL seems too aggresive. 160mph and still rising at 132 hours.

    rksmmc.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Katia is born.
    Tropical Storm KATIA
    ...NEW TROPICAL STORM MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

    5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 30
    Location: 11.8°N 31.7°W
    Max sustained: 40 mph
    Moving: WNW at 17 mph
    Min pressure: 1006 mb

    ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
    500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

    THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT...WITH
    A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NOW SITUATED TO THE WEST AND
    SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE 06Z DVORAK
    INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 2.5/35 KT...AND ON
    THIS BASIS THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE
    STRUCTURE OF KATIA IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 15-20 KT OF
    EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS
    MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
    OR SO...AND AFTER THAT TIME STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD COMMENCE
    AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
    MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD THIS CYCLE...AND
    THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AS WELL. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
    HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
    STRENGTHENING TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE
    PERIOD.
    THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
    INCLUDES THE HFIP INTENSITY AIDS.

    A TIMELY AMSR-E PASS FROM 0326Z WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER
    ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WAS A BIT NORTH
    OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/15...AS
    KATIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
    CONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
    MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT
    DAYS 4 AND 5...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A
    MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD
    RESULT IN SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
    REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT THERE ARE SOME FORWARD SPEED
    DIFFERENCES...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ON THE FAST SIDE OF
    THE GUIDANCE AND THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A SLOW OUTLIER. FOR THIS
    CYCLE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...
    AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE NHC FORECAST IS
    VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR OR A LITTLE TO THE
    RIGHT OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 30/0900Z 11.8N 31.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 30/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 31/0600Z 13.5N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
    36H 31/1800Z 14.4N 40.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
    48H 01/0600Z 15.3N 43.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
    72H 02/0600Z 17.0N 49.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 03/0600Z 18.5N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
    120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Thanks Maquiladora for the updates.

    Haven't really followed hurricane season before. Is it too early to say the likely path?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Thanks Maquiladora for the updates.

    Haven't really followed hurricane season before. Is it too early to say the likely path?

    There is good model agreement on the track for the next 3 days or so, beyond that then it's a bit too early to say.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    I THink Katia will become the first Cat. 5 of the season!
    SO much fuel ahead of it..


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    ( Could a mod please update the thread title? Thanks)


    ...KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

    5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 30
    Location: 12.7°N 35.4°W
    Max sustained: 60 mph
    Moving: WNW at 20 mph
    Min pressure: 997 mb

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 302040
    TCDAT2

    TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
    500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

    KATIA CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH
    INCREASING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-DEFINED BANDING
    FEATURES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE
    NORTH...WEST...AND SOUTH OF THE STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY...
    AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. KATIA WILL BE MOVING
    OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 DEG C AND IN A LOW SHEAR
    ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING APPEARS
    TO BE LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
    STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

    THE INITIAL MOTION...285/17...IS ONLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE
    PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ARE
    BASICALLY UNCHANGED. KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE
    NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS
    IN THE RIDGE PRODUCED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
    EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
    FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
    MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SOUTH OF THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

    THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ON THE BASIS OF AN ASCAT PASS FROM
    EARLIER TODAY.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 30/2100Z 12.7N 35.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
    12H 31/0600Z 13.3N 37.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
    24H 31/1800Z 14.1N 41.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
    36H 01/0600Z 14.9N 44.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
    48H 01/1800Z 15.7N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
    72H 02/1800Z 17.5N 52.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
    96H 03/1800Z 19.5N 56.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
    120H 04/1800Z 21.5N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH

    rgblv.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 293 ✭✭eilejh




  • Registered Users Posts: 293 ✭✭eilejh


    11 o'clock Discussion
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/310238.shtml


    00
    WTNT42 KNHC 310238
    TCDAT2

    TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
    1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

    A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWED
    THAT THE CENTER OF KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
    OF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...ANOTHER BAND OF
    CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER AND IT
    APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
    HOWEVER...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED FROM
    1800 UTC.
    ..AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. KATIA IS
    FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM
    WATER AND VERY LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STEADY
    STRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
    KATIA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
    ..AND A MAJOR
    HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS
    . THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
    INTENSITY AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE MORE
    AGGRESSIVE HWRF/GFDL GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

    KATIA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/19 KT. KATIA
    SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST
    PERIOD...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE
    NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INDUCES A WEAKNESS
    IN THE RIDGE. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
    NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT
    AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
    MODELS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 31/0300Z 13.3N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
    12H 31/1200Z 14.0N 40.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
    24H 01/0000Z 14.8N 43.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
    36H 01/1200Z 15.5N 46.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
    48H 02/0000Z 16.5N 49.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
    72H 03/0000Z 18.5N 54.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
    96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
    120H 05/0000Z 23.0N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭dexter647


    Looks like we could have hurricane Katia later today..



    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.1 WEST. KATIA IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
    FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
    WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KATIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    GFS ensembles for Katia. Nova Scotia/Newfoundland hit looking likely here. Bermuda will be watching closely too.

    2njhru9.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    GFS ensembles for Katia. Nova Scotia/Newfoundland hit looking likely here. Bermuda will be watching closely too.

    2njhru9.gif

    there is one line there which brings it very close to the east coast of america? is that highly unlikely?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭200motels


    Could anyone post a link for all the different models for the atlantic as I can't seem to find them on the net. Thanks


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    there is one line there which brings it very close to the east coast of america? is that highly unlikely?

    With ensembles the thing to look for is the overall trend, so yes you can pretty much ignore those stray outliers.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    200motels wrote: »
    Could anyone post a link for all the different models for the atlantic as I can't seem to find them on the net. Thanks

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    ...KATIA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

    11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 31
    Location: 14.2°N 40.8°W
    Max sustained: 65 mph
    Moving: WNW at 21 mph
    Min pressure: 994 mb

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 311435
    TCDAT2

    TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
    1100 AM AST WED AUG 31 2011

    KATIA REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISTINCT
    BANDING FEATURES AND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DVORAK
    CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T3.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED
    UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. AT THE MOMENT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
    THAT THE DRY AIR ADJACENT TO THE STORM IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE
    CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
    WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING AT
    LEAST FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE
    UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATIA COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
    INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
    FORECAST PERIOD. AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
    SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
    IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHICH WOULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
    INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
    AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS.

    KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/18
    TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE
    DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUATION OF
    THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
    DECELERATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
    IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
    SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS KATIA APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST
    SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
    FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
    CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 31/1500Z 14.2N 40.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
    12H 01/0000Z 14.7N 43.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
    24H 01/1200Z 15.4N 46.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
    36H 02/0000Z 16.2N 48.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
    48H 02/1200Z 17.3N 51.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
    72H 03/1200Z 19.5N 54.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
    96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 57.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
    120H 05/1200Z 23.5N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Looks like Lee could join the party in the Gulf some time soon to supplement Katia.


  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Interesting that they named it Katia. Which is a form of Yekaterina, which sounds like Katrina.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,352 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    Jake1 wrote: »
    Interesting that they named it Katia. Which is a form of Yekaterina, which sounds like Katrina.

    katia is the name picked to replace katrina on the hurricane list as katrina cant be used again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 456 ✭✭Derfil


    irishgeo wrote: »
    katia is the name picked to replace katrina on the hurricane list as katrina cant be used again.

    Once the reach notoriety and kill a certain number they're retired. Grim. :mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,352 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    what could happen if katia runs into the area in yellow thats in the gulf or vice versa.

    1314811998.gif

    have 2 hurricanes/tropical storms ever collided?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12 ECM showing Katia and "Lee" in the Gulf of Mexico.

    12zeurotropical500mbslp.gif

    Interesting the 12Z ECM brings Katia a lot further west and south before recurving at the end of the run. Some other 12Z models have brought Katia further west too, might be the start of a new trend, have to wait and see.


  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Yes, Im aware that they retire the names, my point was, and I should have made it clearer maybe, was that I thought it strange they picked a name so like Katrina, which killed over 1800. Just thought it a bit grim.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    irishgeo wrote: »
    what could happen if katia runs into the area in yellow thats in the gulf or vice versa.

    have 2 hurricanes/tropical storms ever collided?

    I think its very unlikely that Katia will end up heading for Gulf of Mexico. The area on that map in the Gulf where a new storm may be the forming (most models show it developing over the next few days). Because Katia is so far away from the Gulf, the future "Lee" storm will already have gone through its lifecycle and would have already made landfall by the time Katia got there, if Katia was going in that direction, nothing suggests it will.

    The answer to your second question is called the Fujiwhara effect! :D
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect


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