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Very chilly Tuesday-Wednesday with rain and risk of hill snow

  • 06-06-2011 1:22am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    M.T.'s forecast:
    UPDATE _ Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
    _____________________________

    The south has fared considerably better than the north today, and this trend will continue. One slow-moving upper-level disturbance is presently located over Ulster and will drift off towards Scotland on Monday. A second very chilly upper level low that is phasing with surface low pressure near Iceland today will drift southeast and arrive over Donegal Bay late Monday night, taking most of Tuesday and Wednesday to cross the north. While today's rain gradually tapers off to drizzle across the north tonight and a few breaks appear in the cloud cover mid-day Monday, this second disturbance will bring heavy rain, very chilly temperatures and even the risk of sleet or snow at higher elevations. Some of this unsettled weather will spread into central and parts of southern counties by Tuesday, but Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties appear likely to get the worst of it. Temperatures may be held as low as 5-8 C at times on Tuesday, and hills above 500m have the risk of snow or sleet with temperatures of 2-4 C. There may be some risks to safety of livestock on higher terrain, and it would definitely not be a good time to be camping or climbing with conditions no better than mid-January on average. The worst of this second round will last from early Tuesday to early Thursday.

    As always, the impacts on Dublin and most of the south will be much less dramatic but I think that everyone will feel the chill at some point as this unusual weather pattern comes and goes. The eventual end game for this slow moving storm seems to be a leisurely return to base as the low starts to head north and then west later in the week. This will keep Ireland in a rather chilly westerly flow but as the clouds lift and break somewhat, temperatures should struggle back to the mid-teens.

    More details in the morning forecast.
    Last edited by M.T. Cranium; Yesterday at 20:35.


    Did he just say snow? In June? :eek: :eek: :eek:


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes, but the main story will be how cold the temperatures remain for the next 2-3 days in northern counties. Have a look at the current temperatures in Iceland.

    http://en.vedur.is/weather/observations/areas/

    (this map should be current whenever you click on it)

    These are very low temperatures for early June near sea level in some cases.

    Of course it's a bit more complicated than just to say this chilly air is coming southeast to cover the northern half of Ireland, but while the intervening ocean would warm up the flow somewhat, the upper dynamics then change to allow the air to cool off especially when it starts to drop rain (latent heat of condensation will chill the column). The latest soundings show temperatures are not much above freezing around hilltop heights of 700-900m. This is why I'm speculating that higher slopes could start to see rain change over to sleet and snow at times.

    Tony, if you have a chance, perhaps you could change the thread title to something like

    Very chilly Tuesday-Wednesday with rain and risk of hill snow

    that may spread the alert more effectively than the current title. Thanx. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    It appears these islands have become some sort of magnet for cr%p summer weather in recent years:( - made worse by seeing all the heat heading into Scandanavia and Eastern Europe again this year!!:mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    1291179207-913114-345x278-1291174846RAGE-face.jpeg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Blatant attempt to get thread hits!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    I think it would be great if all the snow lovers went and lived above 500M, they would get snowed in and lose comunications in the winter and those of us who want no snow would get some peace rather than :mad: it is January and it's 16C.... :p

    Pity it isn't that warm now...


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    mike65 wrote: »
    Blatant attempt to get thread hits!

    In fairness, i don't think anyone wants snow right now . . .:P


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    One word of snow and Min is back, we all know you secretly love the stuff :P

    Min wrote: »
    I think it would be great if all the snow lovers went and lived above 500M, they would get snowed in and lose comunications in the winter and those of us who want no snow would get some peace rather than :mad: it is January and it's 16C.... :p

    Pity it isn't that warm now...
    I have another proposal, all snow haters leave the Country in the winter, it is winter afterall! :)

    http://www.australia.com :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 10,271 ✭✭✭✭johngalway


    Time to roof the farm I reckon.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    Pangea wrote: »
    One word of snow and Min is back, we all know you secretly love the stuff :P



    I have another proposal, all snow haters leave the Country in the winter, it is winter afterall! :)

    http://www.australia.com :pac:

    I posted yesterday but the snow attracted more than me :p

    I will leave if you come and work on my farm for free - will give free accommodation, I am kind :pac: , remember we get plenty of snow here so you should enjoy it as you try and de-ice the water and milking machine in - 16C temperatures...
    Just have to be careful with Australia as one area got flooded and then the cyclones...maybe Barbados or some other Caribbean island outside of hurricane season.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Min wrote: »
    I posted yesterday but the snow attracted more than me :p

    I will leave if you come and work on my farm for free - will give free accommodation, I am kind :pac: , remember we get plenty of snow here so you should enjoy it as you try and de-ice the water and milking machine in - 16C temperatures...
    Just have to be careful with Australia as one area got flooded and then the cyclones...maybe Barbados or some other Caribbean island outside of hurricane season.

    :rolleyes: Typical Min! No weather will ever be good enough! :p


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    :rolleyes: Typical Min! No weather will ever be good enough! :p

    True :pac:

    I want rain now as some of the ground is burning up but not the cold. Warm and thundery weather would be ideal.

    Look at what we are getting :mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    If only this was a winter forecast! - Still, even it was, i doubt it could be as good as that magical couple of days last December. Will I ever see snowfall as epic as that again, in Ireland, I fear not!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    If only this was a winter forecast! - Still, even it was, i doubt it could be as good as that magical couple of days last December. Will I ever see snowfall as epic as that again, in Ireland, I fear not!

    End of November was good, December was just 1 miserable cm sitting on the ground for 10 days . .


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    End of November was good, December was just 1 miserable cm sitting on the ground for 10 days . .

    I thought the foot of snow that fell in the north west on the 17-18 of December would be as fresh in your mind as it is mine. Could it be we apportion more significance to snow that falls in our own area:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,076 ✭✭✭maxer68


    had to check - no its not April 1st.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Min wrote: »
    you should enjoy it as you try and de-ice the water and milking machine in - 16C temperatures...

    One thing about the weather is that you cant change it, hard luck on the farm work in those temperatures , I can see why you dont like it, but just accept the fact lots of people love that type of weather. Just embrace it.

    I met a man a few months ago who was from Eastern Europe, he said he loved driving in the snowy weather we had last winter, its how he learnt to drive and what he grew up on!
    Will I ever see snowfall as epic as that again, in Ireland, I fear not!
    You said the same thing this time last year about the extreme winter that had just past! :pac: :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    One thing about the weather is that you cant change it, hard luck on the farm work in those temperatures , I can see why you dont like it, but just accept the fact lots of people love that type of weather. Just embrace it.

    I met a man a few months ago who was from Eastern Europe, he said he loved driving in the snowy weather we had last winter, its how he learnt to drive and what he grew up on!


    You said the same thing this time last year about the extreme winter that had just past! :pac: :D

    if i keep saying it i'll be right eventually:pac:
    as we're going to go back to normal winters sooner or later when the solar activity starts to get its act together.

    so with this in mind hopefully next winter will be a repeat of 1947.
    but be aware, while it's peaceful around here now, war will break out if this should happen. you'll be made to feel as if you control the weather? are you ready for it senor pangea?:pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Any opinions on Irish sea-surface temperatures? M2 buoy in Irish sea is at 10.6 degrees (http://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp)
    Even though I don't have SST data records I'm pretty sure its below average.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Pity we couldn't have had the current synoptics in January or February. High stretching all the way from the Azores to Greenland!! Would have been heavy wintry showers esp on Atlantic coasts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Any opinions on Irish sea-surface temperatures? M2 buoy in Irish sea is at 10.6 degrees (http://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp)
    Even though I don't have SST data records I'm pretty sure its below average.

    SSTs around Ireland having been dropping relative to normal in recent weeks and are running in negative territory to our west and north at the moment,which will no doubt help a little with this cold northwesterly during the week
    sst_anom.gif


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Will I ever see snowfall as epic as that again, in Ireland, I fear not!

    That kind of Tuam-like pessimism is very unbecoming for a Mayoman who's had decent snowfall for the last two winters !! :D:D

    Have faith - 2011/12 will be the biggie in terms of the precious! ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    It's looking like the coldest airmass will actually arrive from Wednesday night on, with 850s of -3°C.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,725 ✭✭✭charlemont


    Since May began all we have had is shíte weather.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    I thought the foot of snow that fell in the north west on the 17-18 of December would be as fresh in your mind as it is mine. Could it be we apportion more significance to snow that falls in our own area:)

    Could be that all right . . .:P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,960 ✭✭✭DarkJager


    Seriously...**** this country. We get a miserable extreme winter, a crap springtime and now a month a bit of summer completely ruined by rain and wind with one good day that temperatures actually got off their arse in to expected values.

    What does the rest of this month and next month have in store does anyone know? Are we doomed to this **** weather for whats left of our "summer"? (and its hard to even use that term to describe it)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    If only this was a winter forecast! - Still, even it was, i doubt it could be as good as that magical couple of days last December. Will I ever see snowfall as epic as that again, in Ireland, I fear not!

    Only a foot, and only for a couple of days, ah sure we cant all be winners. Maybe youll have more luck next year!:pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    At least the kids doing the exams won't have to put up with the usual warm weather at the start of exams on Wednesday!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    Min wrote: »
    True :pac:

    I want rain now as some of the ground is burning up but not the cold. Warm and thundery weather would be ideal.

    Look at what we are getting :mad:

    Your probably going to get your wish from Saturday onwards. Looks like warm, humid conditions setting in, with some rain at times.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for changing the title, the hill snow would be a novelty but I think the hail potential is considerable across the country each day, as SC notes the coldest uppers will develop later Wednesday and into Thursday but basically the pattern is already setting up with the phased low drifting closer and no warm air in the circulation, leading to a slow decline in temperatures in the northwest as the rain sets in with heavy bursts.

    I'm expecting rainfalls from tonight to about Friday to total 40-60 mms in Connacht and Ulster, 20-40 mms in Munster and 30-50 mms in Leinster.

    Many places will see hail at least once if not several times during this period, and while most of it will be quite small (< 1 cm) there may be potential on Wednesday and Thursday for 2 cm hailstones in a few places. Any strong convection could also bring a brief period of snow pellets, somewhat different from hail (they bounce and are white rather than grey).

    My idea about the snow will probably apply mostly to quite high elevations but we may get one or two reports of snowflakes mixing into the rain lower down, and this would be most likely around Tuesday night and Wednesday the way things are setting up. The upper low will drift across Donegal and the north coast of Ulster during that time frame.

    Already looking quite active on radar in western parts of Galway and Mayo.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 83 ✭✭morticia2


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Only a foot, and only for a couple of days, ah sure we cant all be winners. Maybe youll have more luck next year!:pac:

    hmmm, wonder if we have Grimsvotn to thank for this weather, at all?? Given the plume reached 65000 ft, I'm guessing it *may* have an effect this winter as well.


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