Very chilly Tuesday-Wednesday with rain and risk of hill snow

thetonynator

M.T.'s forecast:

UPDATE _ Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
_____________________________

The south has fared considerably better than the north today, and this trend will continue. One slow-moving upper-level disturbance is presently located over Ulster and will drift off towards Scotland on Monday. A second very chilly upper level low that is phasing with surface low pressure near Iceland today will drift southeast and arrive over Donegal Bay late Monday night, taking most of Tuesday and Wednesday to cross the north. While today's rain gradually tapers off to drizzle across the north tonight and a few breaks appear in the cloud cover mid-day Monday, this second disturbance will bring heavy rain, very chilly temperatures and even the risk of sleet or snow at higher elevations. Some of this unsettled weather will spread into central and parts of southern counties by Tuesday, but Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties appear likely to get the worst of it. Temperatures may be held as low as 5-8 C at times on Tuesday, and hills above 500m have the risk of snow or sleet with temperatures of 2-4 C. There may be some risks to safety of livestock on higher terrain, and it would definitely not be a good time to be camping or climbing with conditions no better than mid-January on average. The worst of this second round will last from early Tuesday to early Thursday.

As always, the impacts on Dublin and most of the south will be much less dramatic but I think that everyone will feel the chill at some point as this unusual weather pattern comes and goes. The eventual end game for this slow moving storm seems to be a leisurely return to base as the low starts to head north and then west later in the week. This will keep Ireland in a rather chilly westerly flow but as the clouds lift and break somewhat, temperatures should struggle back to the mid-teens.

More details in the morning forecast.
Last edited by M.T. Cranium; Yesterday at 20:35.

Did he just say snow? In June? :eek: :eek: :eek:

M.T. Cranium

Yes, but the main story will be how cold the temperatures remain for the next 2-3 days in northern counties. Have a look at the current temperatures in Iceland.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/observations/areas/

(this map should be current whenever you click on it)

These are very low temperatures for early June near sea level in some cases.

Of course it's a bit more complicated than just to say this chilly air is coming southeast to cover the northern half of Ireland, but while the intervening ocean would warm up the flow somewhat, the upper dynamics then change to allow the air to cool off especially when it starts to drop rain (latent heat of condensation will chill the column). The latest soundings show temperatures are not much above freezing around hilltop heights of 700-900m. This is why I'm speculating that higher slopes could start to see rain change over to sleet and snow at times.

Tony, if you have a chance, perhaps you could change the thread title to something like

Very chilly Tuesday-Wednesday with rain and risk of hill snow

that may spread the alert more effectively than the current title. Thanx.

Birdnuts

It appears these islands have become some sort of magnet for cr%p summer weather in recent years:( - made worse by seeing all the heat heading into Scandanavia and Eastern Europe again this year!!:mad:

maquiladora

mike65

Blatant attempt to get thread hits!

Min

I think it would be great if all the snow lovers went and lived above 500M, they would get snowed in and lose comunications in the winter and those of us who want no snow would get some peace rather than :mad: it is January and it's 16C....

Pity it isn't that warm now...

thetonynator

mike65 wrote: »

Blatant attempt to get thread hits!

In fairness, i don't think anyone wants snow right now . . .:P

Pangea

One word of snow and Min is back, we all know you secretly love the stuff :P

Min wrote: »

I think it would be great if all the snow lovers went and lived above 500M, they would get snowed in and lose comunications in the winter and those of us who want no snow would get some peace rather than :mad: it is January and it's 16C....

Pity it isn't that warm now...

I have another proposal, all snow haters leave the Country in the winter, it is winter afterall!

http://www.australia.com :pac:

johngalway

Time to roof the farm I reckon.

Min

Pangea wrote: »

One word of snow and Min is back, we all know you secretly love the stuff :P



I have another proposal, all snow haters leave the Country in the winter, it is winter afterall!

http://www.australia.com :pac:

I posted yesterday but the snow attracted more than me

I will leave if you come and work on my farm for free - will give free accommodation, I am kind :pac: , remember we get plenty of snow here so you should enjoy it as you try and de-ice the water and milking machine in - 16C temperatures...
Just have to be careful with Australia as one area got flooded and then the cyclones...maybe Barbados or some other Caribbean island outside of hurricane season.

BEASTERLY

Min wrote: »

I posted yesterday but the snow attracted more than me

I will leave if you come and work on my farm for free - will give free accommodation, I am kind :pac: , remember we get plenty of snow here so you should enjoy it as you try and de-ice the water and milking machine in - 16C temperatures...
Just have to be careful with Australia as one area got flooded and then the cyclones...maybe Barbados or some other Caribbean island outside of hurricane season.

:rolleyes: Typical Min! No weather will ever be good enough!

Min

BEASTERLY wrote: »

:rolleyes: Typical Min! No weather will ever be good enough!

True :pac:

I want rain now as some of the ground is burning up but not the cold. Warm and thundery weather would be ideal.

Look at what we are getting :mad:

nacho libre

If only this was a winter forecast! - Still, even it was, i doubt it could be as good as that magical couple of days last December. Will I ever see snowfall as epic as that again, in Ireland, I fear not!

thetonynator

nacho libre wrote: »

If only this was a winter forecast! - Still, even it was, i doubt it could be as good as that magical couple of days last December. Will I ever see snowfall as epic as that again, in Ireland, I fear not!

End of November was good, December was just 1 miserable cm sitting on the ground for 10 days . .

nacho libre

thetonynator wrote: »

End of November was good, December was just 1 miserable cm sitting on the ground for 10 days . .

I thought the foot of snow that fell in the north west on the 17-18 of December would be as fresh in your mind as it is mine. Could it be we apportion more significance to snow that falls in our own area:)

maxer68

had to check - no its not April 1st.

Pangea

Min wrote: »

you should enjoy it as you try and de-ice the water and milking machine in - 16C temperatures...

One thing about the weather is that you cant change it, hard luck on the farm work in those temperatures , I can see why you dont like it, but just accept the fact lots of people love that type of weather. Just embrace it.

I met a man a few months ago who was from Eastern Europe, he said he loved driving in the snowy weather we had last winter, its how he learnt to drive and what he grew up on!

nacho libre wrote: »

Will I ever see snowfall as epic as that again, in Ireland, I fear not!

You said the same thing this time last year about the extreme winter that had just past! :pac:

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

One thing about the weather is that you cant change it, hard luck on the farm work in those temperatures , I can see why you dont like it, but just accept the fact lots of people love that type of weather. Just embrace it.

I met a man a few months ago who was from Eastern Europe, he said he loved driving in the snowy weather we had last winter, its how he learnt to drive and what he grew up on!


You said the same thing this time last year about the extreme winter that had just past! :pac:

if i keep saying it i'll be right eventually:pac:
as we're going to go back to normal winters sooner or later when the solar activity starts to get its act together.

so with this in mind hopefully next winter will be a repeat of 1947.
but be aware, while it's peaceful around here now, war will break out if this should happen. you'll be made to feel as if you control the weather? are you ready for it senor pangea?:pac:

patneve2

Any opinions on Irish sea-surface temperatures? M2 buoy in Irish sea is at 10.6 degrees (http://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp)
Even though I don't have SST data records I'm pretty sure its below average.

patneve2

Pity we couldn't have had the current synoptics in January or February. High stretching all the way from the Azores to Greenland!! Would have been heavy wintry showers esp on Atlantic coasts.

MiNdGaM3

patneve2 wrote: »

Any opinions on Irish sea-surface temperatures? M2 buoy in Irish sea is at 10.6 degrees (http://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp)
Even though I don't have SST data records I'm pretty sure its below average.

SSTs around Ireland having been dropping relative to normal in recent weeks and are running in negative territory to our west and north at the moment,which will no doubt help a little with this cold northwesterly during the week

Lumi

nacho libre wrote: »

Will I ever see snowfall as epic as that again, in Ireland, I fear not!

That kind of Tuam-like pessimism is very unbecoming for a Mayoman who's had decent snowfall for the last two winters !! :D

Have faith - 2011/12 will be the biggie in terms of the precious!

Su Campu

It's looking like the coldest airmass will actually arrive from Wednesday night on, with 850s of -3°C.

charlemont

Since May began all we have had is shíte weather.

thetonynator

nacho libre wrote: »

I thought the foot of snow that fell in the north west on the 17-18 of December would be as fresh in your mind as it is mine. Could it be we apportion more significance to snow that falls in our own area:)

Could be that all right . . .:P

DarkJager

Seriously...**** this country. We get a miserable extreme winter, a crap springtime and now a month a bit of summer completely ruined by rain and wind with one good day that temperatures actually got off their arse in to expected values.

What does the rest of this month and next month have in store does anyone know? Are we doomed to this **** weather for whats left of our "summer"? (and its hard to even use that term to describe it)

BEASTERLY

nacho libre wrote: »

If only this was a winter forecast! - Still, even it was, i doubt it could be as good as that magical couple of days last December. Will I ever see snowfall as epic as that again, in Ireland, I fear not!

Only a foot, and only for a couple of days, ah sure we cant all be winners. Maybe youll have more luck next year!:pac:

Su Campu

At least the kids doing the exams won't have to put up with the usual warm weather at the start of exams on Wednesday!

Duiske

Min wrote: »

True :pac:

I want rain now as some of the ground is burning up but not the cold. Warm and thundery weather would be ideal.

Look at what we are getting :mad:

Your probably going to get your wish from Saturday onwards. Looks like warm, humid conditions setting in, with some rain at times.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for changing the title, the hill snow would be a novelty but I think the hail potential is considerable across the country each day, as SC notes the coldest uppers will develop later Wednesday and into Thursday but basically the pattern is already setting up with the phased low drifting closer and no warm air in the circulation, leading to a slow decline in temperatures in the northwest as the rain sets in with heavy bursts.

I'm expecting rainfalls from tonight to about Friday to total 40-60 mms in Connacht and Ulster, 20-40 mms in Munster and 30-50 mms in Leinster.

Many places will see hail at least once if not several times during this period, and while most of it will be quite small (< 1 cm) there may be potential on Wednesday and Thursday for 2 cm hailstones in a few places. Any strong convection could also bring a brief period of snow pellets, somewhat different from hail (they bounce and are white rather than grey).

My idea about the snow will probably apply mostly to quite high elevations but we may get one or two reports of snowflakes mixing into the rain lower down, and this would be most likely around Tuesday night and Wednesday the way things are setting up. The upper low will drift across Donegal and the north coast of Ulster during that time frame.

Already looking quite active on radar in western parts of Galway and Mayo.

morticia2

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Only a foot, and only for a couple of days, ah sure we cant all be winners. Maybe youll have more luck next year!:pac:

hmmm, wonder if we have Grimsvotn to thank for this weather, at all?? Given the plume reached 65000 ft, I'm guessing it *may* have an effect this winter as well.

johngalway

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'm expecting rainfalls from tonight to about Friday to total 40-60 mms in Connacht

Already looking quite active on radar in western parts of Galway and Mayo.

It sure is Piddling down in Connemara.

eskimocat

Ah serves me right for neglecting the weather forum for 24 hours... look what happens Talk of snow.... I know I know, hills, high elevations etc etc but is JUNE and we get to talk about SNOW :D:D:D:D

(Jeese should have known it was coming cause my heating broke down!)

Pangea

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Only a foot, and only for a couple of days, ah sure we cant all be winners. Maybe youll have more luck next year!:pac:

Some things never change lol, Still Nacho got more snow than 99.9% of people on this forum in the Mid December snowfall.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

war will break out if this should happen. you'll be made to feel as if you control the weather? are you ready for it senor pangea?:pac:

If theres a winter like 47 I will be too busy clearing the roads for the local beer trucks to worry about a war on the forum :pac:

je55ie

really wintry night here in kerry very heavy showers sounds like hailstone but i doubt it

ThisRegard

Big bloody hail in Dublin 15.

Jesus Wept

few inches of snow would be grand.

BEASTERLY

Pangea wrote: »

Some things never change lol, Still Nacho got more snow than 99.9% of people on this forum in the Mid December snowfall.

/troll hat on
Ah yes, the mid-december fall, i have some recolection of that..pffft, totally dwarfed by the falls in the east at the end of november and around christmas
/troll hat off.

:pac:

BEASTERLY

jessie37 wrote: »

really wintry night here in kerry very heavy snow showers sounds like hailstone but i doubt it

Anybody else read it like that^ first time round? If only...

h57xiucj2z946q

Some rumbles in Athlone now.

Pangea

I see ME have 1c in places for thursday night and frost. This is June amazing!

Pangea

BEASTERLY wrote: »

/troll hat on
Ah yes, the mid-december fall, i have some recolection of that..pffft, totally dwarfed by the falls in the east at the end of november and around christmas
/troll hat off.

:pac:

/Translation/
I' totally missed out on the Mid December snowfall but I'm still happy with what I got
/Translation/
:pac:

Min

The rain is lovely, needed it badly as the drought was getting bad, some of the fields have parts on brows where they are brown from lack of rain.

Pangea

Min wrote: »

The rain is lovely, needed it badly as the drought was getting bad, some of the fields have parts on brows where they are brown from lack of rain.

Most of the trees around here are still all burnt from the frost, all brown etc.
Is there any hope for them or are they dieing?

je55ie

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Anybody else read it like that^ first time round? If only...

No snow but feels very cold tonight.... only 9c here atm

ednwireland

9 degrees this morning - if the clod ever lifts i'll see if teh hills have snow on them

update: can see the top of the hills now not a sign of snow

df1985

pissing down here in Leixlip and house was very cold when i woke up, this weather is starting to actually get me down at this stage!

torrentum

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

INSTALLING SUMMER.....
███████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 44% DONE.
Install delayed....please wait.
Installation failed. Please try again. 404 error: Season not found. Season "Summer" cannot be located. The season you are looking for might have been removed, had its name changed, or is temporarily unavailable. Please try again..

Hahahha. LMAO. Brilliant!

mike65

+1 for the above

Weirdly enough today is okay, its milder than yesterday, less windy and the skies are clearing (for how long is another matter)

Min

Pangea wrote: »

Most of the trees around here are still all burnt from the frost, all brown etc.
Is there any hope for them or are they dieing?

If they are native species I would think they will get new regrowth.

Everything needs some warm, close and thundery weather...