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08-01-2011, 03:46   #1
darkman2
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Forcast was wrong

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

Last edited by darkman2; 08-01-2011 at 04:20.
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08-01-2011, 04:27   #2
_whiskers
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I forgive you! But if it happens again I'm afraid you will be fired... Out of a canon and into the sun
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08-01-2011, 05:08   #3
M.T. Cranium
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I think I had roughly the same error in my forecast today. Looking at how the system evolved, the forecast problem was all related to where the rain-snow transition would occur, the models did fairly well on guiding the forecasts as to timing and intensity of precip. I notice that Casement reported 10 mms yesterday, Mullingar 3 mms (some of which was no doubt melted snow). Those are close to the values predicted by the guidance.

From my own point of view, the rain-snow line stayed well to the west of counties such as Kilkenny, Laois and Carlow, despite the lack of any southerly winds. Some warmth appeared to mix in from the east through Dublin and Meath. This was just enough to keep the temperatures and dew points above the critical values. In these marginal situations, once snow starts falling, it tends to stay mostly snow. I think this was how it played out further west where people did get the snow expected.

The guidance values for snowfall were marginal (thickness was about 535 dms and 850 mb temp about -2 C). I had noted that on the guidance but figured that the trapped cold air and the heavy rates of precip might swing the balance over to snow. It will be interesting if people in that cold-rain zone have a chance to check out snow elevations on their local hills on Saturday, if it clears up a bit. Would imagine it was snowing not far above the general elevation of populated areas.

We'll have lots more chances to discuss and forecast snow, I would think.
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08-01-2011, 05:10   #4
 
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Don't worry about it, Met Eireann tends to be wrong most of the time.
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08-01-2011, 08:15   #5
H2UMrsRobinson
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.
DM2 - I love your forecast threads, you put it out there and always on the optimistic side.

It's not your fault it didn't snow BTW - I don't think you possess that kind of power (no offence)
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08-01-2011, 08:17   #6
wyndham
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Snowing in Dublin 1 a few minutes ago. Got a dusting. Not enough for a snowball yet.
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08-01-2011, 09:15   #7
Caitriona
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Got some in Louth overnight - you could definitely make a snowball! Not disruptive levels but everything's definitely white.
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08-01-2011, 09:22   #8
gonker
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Slight dusting in Drogheda, have to head out now hope roads are ok. Was funny seeing the snow ploughs and gritters driving up and down the roads in the lashing rain last night and I mean it was pouring from the heavens .
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08-01-2011, 09:59   #9
Rebelbrowser
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.
Thought this apology was a joke until I saw the responses. From many posters here (sadly not I) there was lots of snow around yesterday. You called that about 6 days ago. That's very impressive. I have already posted congrats to you, BB and MTC for your early calls on this on the other thread (before I saw this). Keep up the good work if you ask me.
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08-01-2011, 10:00   #10
rhonin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significantt snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.
Absolutely no need to apologise. You've got it right a hell of lot times too. Don't be disheartened and keep up the good work

Edit : some places got snow and you did forecast that a couple of days ago.

Last edited by rhonin; 08-01-2011 at 10:04.
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08-01-2011, 10:03   #11
 
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This was always a tricky one to call and in fairness no forecaster got it spot on perfect. It did snow in a lot of places yesterday evening though esp mid-west and west/north midlands. Weather and forecasting the weather is what we enjoy, probably because it is so utterly and completely beyond our control but at least we try!
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08-01-2011, 10:04   #12
jambofc
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.
dont think you were to far of the mark dm2,was a lot of snow in localised area's,as you no nearly impossible to be correct all the time
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08-01-2011, 10:21   #13
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.
In fairness,snow did eventually fall in Dublin right to the coast albeit after the bulk of the precip was a deluge of rain and said snow was a sugar dusting..
The problem was the mixing continued right through to midnight and beyond especially down my way.
-2 850's really do need the kind of freeze up we had pre Xmas and late november to and I'm coining a phrase here potentise a native cold pool enough when theres no surface freezing air advecting in from elsewhere.
We are an island so if you get up the wind,you import the air over the sea eventually.
I noticed yesterday morning here,the minute the breeze from the NE kicked in,we had irish sea dewpoints of +3 and 4c straight away.

Thats the lesson to be learned here.
I've noticed that one poster has commended MT for always being optimistic,I presume they mean in forecasting snow.
You can't be optimistic with snow forecasts,you have to be realistic in an island situation perched in waters that are naturally modified by that gulf stream thing.

The other lesson is obviously to use local knowledge,this being the perfect lesson,to over rule model guidance that snow is going to fall when you think yourself it's 50:50 or less.
It would be a good idea to introduce percentage risks of something happening and to explain the reasoning.
I fell fowl of the models 2 days ago by trusting the Nae which overplayed things considerably.
I should have known better.
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08-01-2011, 10:39   #14
Ahorseofaman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.
rubbish darkman, if every poster opened a thread when a forecast was wrong we would fill the front page.You can only go on the available info and it changes all the time.I find your posts interesting and informative so keep up the good work.Same goes to all the other regular forecasters(you know who you are)
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08-01-2011, 10:40   #15
lucernarian
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I got a call wrong when I alerted a friend in Kilkenny to the likelihood of heavy snow throughout yesterday, and I based this on what had happened with a roughly similar situation during the final couple of days of 2009 (along with the model guidance of course)

There was one aspect which strongly concerned me in various forecasts for snow, and that was the Rain/snowfall predictive charts of weatheronline. I'm looking at you Weathercheck Note the lack of "wet snow" or "sleet". However I believe the model is forecasting "snow that will ordinarily stick" in any case. That doesn't change the fact with those charts that the prediction doesn't suddenly transition from rain to snow and resolution becomes very important when *everything* is marginal over a wider stretch of area.

The pivoting as forecast suggested that the upper polar maritime air was approaching the front from the NW than the NE and that was never going to give the southeast a chance in displacing that mucky modified "native air".

I definitely wouldn't say your forecasts were out of kilter though! Many places did see snow, INCLUDING on the east coast at low levels if the reports I got from Louth are correct. I'll find out later today for myself. You don't have to kowtow on this one darkman2
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