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Forcast was wrong

  • 08-01-2011 3:46am
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 445 ✭✭_whiskers


    I forgive you! But if it happens again I'm afraid you will be fired... Out of a canon and into the sun :P :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I think I had roughly the same error in my forecast today. Looking at how the system evolved, the forecast problem was all related to where the rain-snow transition would occur, the models did fairly well on guiding the forecasts as to timing and intensity of precip. I notice that Casement reported 10 mms yesterday, Mullingar 3 mms (some of which was no doubt melted snow). Those are close to the values predicted by the guidance.

    From my own point of view, the rain-snow line stayed well to the west of counties such as Kilkenny, Laois and Carlow, despite the lack of any southerly winds. Some warmth appeared to mix in from the east through Dublin and Meath. This was just enough to keep the temperatures and dew points above the critical values. In these marginal situations, once snow starts falling, it tends to stay mostly snow. I think this was how it played out further west where people did get the snow expected.

    The guidance values for snowfall were marginal (thickness was about 535 dms and 850 mb temp about -2 C). I had noted that on the guidance but figured that the trapped cold air and the heavy rates of precip might swing the balance over to snow. It will be interesting if people in that cold-rain zone have a chance to check out snow elevations on their local hills on Saturday, if it clears up a bit. Would imagine it was snowing not far above the general elevation of populated areas.

    We'll have lots more chances to discuss and forecast snow, I would think.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 164 ✭✭Caitlinn


    Don't worry about it, Met Eireann tends to be wrong most of the time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

    DM2 - I love your forecast threads, you put it out there and always on the optimistic side.

    It's not your fault it didn't snow BTW - I don't think you possess that kind of power (no offence)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,284 ✭✭✭wyndham


    Snowing in Dublin 1 a few minutes ago. Got a dusting. Not enough for a snowball yet.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 101 ✭✭Caitriona


    Got some in Louth overnight - you could definitely make a snowball! Not disruptive levels but everything's definitely white.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,290 ✭✭✭gonker


    Slight dusting in Drogheda, have to head out now hope roads are ok. Was funny seeing the snow ploughs and gritters driving up and down the roads in the lashing rain last night and I mean it was pouring from the heavens :D.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

    Thought this apology was a joke until I saw the responses. From many posters here (sadly not I) there was lots of snow around yesterday. You called that about 6 days ago. That's very impressive. I have already posted congrats to you, BB and MTC for your early calls on this on the other thread (before I saw this). Keep up the good work if you ask me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significantt snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

    Absolutely no need to apologise. You've got it right a hell of lot times too. Don't be disheartened and keep up the good work :)

    Edit : some places got snow and you did forecast that a couple of days ago.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    This was always a tricky one to call and in fairness no forecaster got it spot on perfect. It did snow in a lot of places yesterday evening though esp mid-west and west/north midlands. Weather and forecasting the weather is what we enjoy, probably because it is so utterly and completely beyond our control but at least we try!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

    dont think you were to far of the mark dm2,was a lot of snow in localised area's,as you no nearly impossible to be correct all the time :)




  • darkman2 wrote: »
    I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.
    In fairness,snow did eventually fall in Dublin right to the coast albeit after the bulk of the precip was a deluge of rain and said snow was a sugar dusting..
    The problem was the mixing continued right through to midnight and beyond especially down my way.
    -2 850's really do need the kind of freeze up we had pre Xmas and late november to and I'm coining a phrase here potentise a native cold pool enough when theres no surface freezing air advecting in from elsewhere.
    We are an island so if you get up the wind,you import the air over the sea eventually.
    I noticed yesterday morning here,the minute the breeze from the NE kicked in,we had irish sea dewpoints of +3 and 4c straight away.

    Thats the lesson to be learned here.
    I've noticed that one poster has commended MT for always being optimistic,I presume they mean in forecasting snow.
    You can't be optimistic with snow forecasts,you have to be realistic in an island situation perched in waters that are naturally modified by that gulf stream thing.

    The other lesson is obviously to use local knowledge,this being the perfect lesson,to over rule model guidance that snow is going to fall when you think yourself it's 50:50 or less.
    It would be a good idea to introduce percentage risks of something happening and to explain the reasoning.
    I fell fowl of the models 2 days ago by trusting the Nae which overplayed things considerably.
    I should have known better.


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Ahorseofaman


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.
    rubbish darkman, if every poster opened a thread when a forecast was wrong we would fill the front page.You can only go on the available info and it changes all the time.I find your posts interesting and informative so keep up the good work.Same goes to all the other regular forecasters(you know who you are)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    I got a call wrong when I alerted a friend in Kilkenny to the likelihood of heavy snow throughout yesterday, and I based this on what had happened with a roughly similar situation during the final couple of days of 2009 (along with the model guidance of course)

    There was one aspect which strongly concerned me in various forecasts for snow, and that was the Rain/snowfall predictive charts of weatheronline. I'm looking at you Weathercheck:p Note the lack of "wet snow" or "sleet". However I believe the model is forecasting "snow that will ordinarily stick" in any case. That doesn't change the fact with those charts that the prediction doesn't suddenly transition from rain to snow and resolution becomes very important when *everything* is marginal over a wider stretch of area.

    The pivoting as forecast suggested that the upper polar maritime air was approaching the front from the NW than the NE and that was never going to give the southeast a chance in displacing that mucky modified "native air".

    I definitely wouldn't say your forecasts were out of kilter though! Many places did see snow, INCLUDING on the east coast at low levels if the reports I got from Louth are correct. I'll find out later today for myself. You don't have to kowtow on this one darkman2;)


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,595 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    rhonin wrote: »
    Absolutely no need to apologise. You've got it right a hell of lot times too. Don't be disheartened and keep up the good work :)

    +1


  • Registered Users Posts: 26,897 ✭✭✭✭Dempo1


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

    Actually met eireann & the AA gave hysterical forecasts yesterday morning. I was up early for a spin to the airport, set out from Tullamore and drove up the M4. Jeez, listening to the repeated forecasts on the drive up (some of which specifically dealt with area's i was driving through), i could not help but think the forecasts were repeats from prior to Christmas.

    Heavy frost (none to be seen), black ice (M4 was perfect), Indeed heavy snow fall (not a drop) all for casted on my route.

    Later i was dreaded Icy roads and frost on my return trip to Portlaoise and again nothing to be seen. Indeed it was not until 6.30pm last night when it started to snow!

    Bizarre albeit admittedly it was bitter cold yesterday afternoon!

    Is maith an scáthán súil charad.




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭irishmotorist


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I must appoligise to you all....

    I think apologies are out of order and not necessary!

    In the first post on your other thread, you said "there was a small risk of significant snow during Friday and Saturday". In the ensuing discussion, nobody could say with any certainty what would happen. Even while the precipitation was falling it was marginal what would happen next. So to even see that it was on it's way, I take my hat off to you sir! And, of course, to all of the other forecasters. :)

    Thank YOU for your part in making this interesting and sharing the knowledge.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator



    The guidance values for snowfall were marginal (thickness was about 535 dms and 850 mb temp about -2 C). I had noted that on the guidance but figured that the trapped cold air and the heavy rates of precip might swing the balance over to snow. It will be interesting if people in that cold-rain zone have a chance to check out snow elevations on their local hills on Saturday, if it clears up a bit. Would imagine it was snowing not far above the general elevation of populated areas.

    We'll have lots more chances to discuss and forecast snow, I would think.



    Had a look there now, nearest decent hill (Brandon hill in graignamanagh to the east of me) doesnt appear to have any snow. It's elevation is around 450m asl, although i cant see the top clearly so there may be something there. Blackstairs MT. (around 650m asl) has snow, but i cant see the snowline from here. Going by brandon, it wasnt quite as marginal as i thought.


  • Registered Users Posts: 913 ✭✭✭TheFairy


    Any post on here that alerts people to even the possibility of extreme weather has to be applauded. Sure if you get it wrong its no big shakes, and if you get it right then you have helped those that read the forecast/warning and all those that these people advised in the real world.

    No apology wanted/needed or warranted!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Not


    I have to say the experts, ME, are very reliable when a relatively widespread disruptive snow event is forecast days in advance. If they are forecasting a strong likelihood of it to happen, it rarely happens (at least as defined - I know there was some snow in places last night, but was it widespread and disruptive?). Last night looks like the latest example of this stunningly consistant record. So if the experts can't nail it, what hope for anyone else..

    Having said that, I'm looking out on snow coveredpocked ground in Terenure in south Dublin. Not 5 cm in depth, but maybe 5 flakes per square cm.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    I think I had roughly the same error in my forecast today. Looking at how the system evolved, the forecast problem was all related to where the rain-snow transition would occur, the models did fairly well on guiding the forecasts as to timing and intensity of precip. I notice that Casement reported 10 mms yesterday, Mullingar 3 mms (some of which was no doubt melted snow). Those are close to the values predicted by the guidance.

    From my own point of view, the rain-snow line stayed well to the west of counties such as Kilkenny, Laois and Carlow, despite the lack of any southerly winds. Some warmth appeared to mix in from the east through Dublin and Meath. This was just enough to keep the temperatures and dew points above the critical values. In these marginal situations, once snow starts falling, it tends to stay mostly snow. I think this was how it played out further west where people did get the snow expected.

    The guidance values for snowfall were marginal (thickness was about 535 dms and 850 mb temp about -2 C). I had noted that on the guidance but figured that the trapped cold air and the heavy rates of precip might swing the balance over to snow. It will be interesting if people in that cold-rain zone have a chance to check out snow elevations on their local hills on Saturday, if it clears up a bit. Would imagine it was snowing not far above the general elevation of populated areas.

    We'll have lots more chances to discuss and forecast snow, I would think.

    Hi MT, here in north Kilkenny we got snow on the hills, it started around 9pm after a lot of rain/sleet.
    I would say from looking around and how we have snow, albeit not much lying on the ground - enough to have white fields, that the snow line is slightly above 200m.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,110 ✭✭✭123balltv


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

    Your only human no bother :):)
    Mother Nature truly knows the weather she's the only one


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    once again this proves the greatest snowfalls usually occur when they are not expected- when the situation is so marginal that your instinct tells you it will be rain but it's the rare ocassion when the balance is just tipped in our favour.
    anyone who follows weather will not get annoyed at some making a prediction that turns out to be wrong given the difficulty of snowfall to occur on this island. it's only the blow-ins into the weather forum who do that sort of thing.
    the only thing to be annoyed about is being surrounded by warm water!


  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭bbbbb


    It was raining quite heavily here (dublin 3) yesterday evening, and it was a cold night (frost on roofs, cars), so I can't see how it didn't snow!




  • I'd agree there was no need for this thread and no need for dm2 to be embarrassed.
    It took balls to call it.This is only the 2nd thread of his out of dozens where there was a wrongish outcome and besides a slimmed down area did get a snow covering so that wasn't too bad.
    The only thing that went wrong was the extent of the effect of the irish sea northeasterly ruining snow.

    Snow did not fall in a good part of East leinster untill the wind changed direction.
    There was no surface air freezing feed and dewpoints over the irish sea remained positive.
    This fed into a lot of leinster and east munster.
    It wasn't shifted from wexford,waterford or most of wicklow untill the precip went away ,it was so powerfull in fact.

    @mt
    The snow line here in south wicklow was above 2000ft asl .
    Croghan mt has no snow from last night.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,679 ✭✭✭bcmf


    FWIW here is what happened almost on the Coast in North County Dublin (Balbriggan) yest
    From 16.30 to approx 22.30 yest it lashed rain. Stopped for a sort bit then snowed moderatley for an hour or so. Poked my head out the door at approx 02.30 and it has stopped with a dusting of snow on cars,grass, walls etc but not on the roads.From 10 this morning everything seemed to have frozen solid with a further freshish dusting sitting on top of it. Dont have any hills of note round here BUT can see the Mournes and certainly from what I can tell from the distance is that they have a good covering from fairly low down.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Politics Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 81,310 CMod ✭✭✭✭coffee_cake


    Well we certainly got snow here in meath anyway, paths are awfully slippy too


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,679 ✭✭✭bcmf


    ..... oh and btw DM and MT.....for future reference...you are NEVER WRONG...JUST NOT QUITE RIGHT.:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    bcmf wrote: »
    FWIW here is what happened almost on the Coast in North County Dublin (Balbriggan) yest
    From 16.30 to approx 22.30 yest it lashed rain. Stopped for a sort bit then snowed moderatley for an hour or so. Poked my head out the door at approx 02.30 and it has stopped with a dusting of snow on cars,grass, walls etc but not on the roads.From 10 this morning everything seemed to have frozen solid with a further freshish dusting sitting on top of it. Dont have any hills of note round here BUT can see the Mournes and certainly from what I can tell from the distance is that they have a good covering from fairly low down.

    Can you really see the Mourne Mountains from Balbriggan ? :confused:


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  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Dont be beating yourself up DM, you posted in good faith. Better to be forewarned and prepared anyway just in case.
    Keep on keeping on :)


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