Forcast was wrong

bcmf

derekon wrote: »

Can you really see the Mourne Mountains from Balbriggan ?

Well from the road from Man'O'War to Balrothery there is a section where you have a fantastic view of The Mournes and from the back car Park from said pub you have a great view of Wicklow Mtns.

Maxamber

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

Very disappointing for you and I sympathise but, for myself and living where we do, over 300m asl near Roundwood/Laragh, I'd MUCH rather expect snow and not have it than vice versa. And after the rain it froze really hard here, temps down to -4: you can imagine the roads early this morning! These threads are such a help, so you've no need to apologise at all!

lucernarian

@M.T. Cranium:

Drogheda itself and immediate areas has little more than a dusting, with snow collected in tufts of grass. From about 100 metres asl and higher, there's slush/snow on roads where cars haven't driven on them and there's snow generally on grass and trees. I'm at about 140 metres asl or thereabouts and there's even somewhat more snow at this level. About an inch of lying snow on garden furniture and wheelie bins and the car etc. You can see a change in snow cover with every 20 metres in altitude.

Edit: I would say that the snow line proper is at about 80 to 100 metres above sea level.

Duiske

thetonynator wrote: »

Had a look there now, nearest decent hill (Brandon hill in graignamanagh to the east of me) doesnt appear to have any snow. It's elevation is around 450m asl, although i cant see the top clearly so there may be something there. Blackstairs MT. (around 650m asl) has snow, but i cant see the snowline from here. Going by brandon, it wasnt quite as marginal as i thought.

Closest I seen to snow yesterday was at Copenagh (roughly 230m asl), highest point on the road between Graignamanagh and Thomastown.about 4pm. Very wet stuff though which was not sticking, and a friend who travelled the same road about an hour later said it was just raining in the same area.

thetonynator

Duiske wrote: »

Closest I seen to snow yesterday was at Copenagh (roughly 230m asl), highest point on the road between Graignamanagh and Thomastown.about 4pm. Very wet stuff though which was not sticking, and a friend who travelled the same road about an hour later said it was just raining in the same area.

Will be driving over there in a few hours, will check if theres anything left. I dont think anything stuck up there though . . . even brandon didnt appear white this morning.

greysides

Absolutely no need for an apology, the real sin would be if you let it ever stop you calling it as you see it.
It doesn't take too long reading the weather forum threads before you realise just how complex forecasting snow is. If it were easy there would be no fun in it.

(Take a lesson from ME, 'don't look back'.)

That you felt the need to start this thread demonstrates how seriously you take your forecasts and it's that dedication that is appreciated so much on this forum. I always look for your posts, amongst others.:)

kindredspirit

Don't understand. We had a pile of snow last night.

Didn't you all?

Roads are very bad around here at moment even though it is thawing.

P.S. It's our first proper snowfall of the winter. We had no snow when it appeared to be everywhere else. (Location: Co. Limerick.)

fizzycyst

It's the nature of forecasting that you won't get it right all the time. It drives me mad when I hear people giving out about ME, or anyone else for that matter, getting it wrong.

You definitely do not need to apologise darkman, and btw, thanks for sharing the why's and why not's as too whether it will snow or not, you wouldn't believe how much a person can learn from all the information that's shared here.:)

irishdub14

derekon wrote: »

Can you really see the Mourne Mountains from Balbriggan ?

Yes, this pic is from Skerries:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/markwaldron/3426202745/

Rodin

We got snow in the north so I was very impressed to be told about it at the start of the week Darkman.
Cars stranded at bottom of hills because of it too.

Strangegravy

Ha, ha.. absolutely no need to apologize at all!

We got our best snow of the winter so far down here in Castletroy, Limerick. I still have a melty snowman in the backyard... For our area the forecast was spot on, and coupled with a big power cut right in the middle of it for maybe an hour or so, it felt like something right out of the 1800s!

You saw all the potential ingredients were there and you put that info out there, the rest was up to Mother Nature's selective icy hands.. fair play to you for doing your part!

ORACLE2

Dont apologise at all,you weren`t completely wrong I can tell you, im on the Cork Kerry border not far from Millstreet and I can tell you we got 4 to 5 ins of the stuff so that is not getting a forecast of snow wrong in my opinion.

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

lucy2010

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

Would you stop....... your forecast as well as a couple of others is what I follow. If I want to know something I ask certain people.. & as for the tools on this who think they know better.... called get a life. Dont be so hard on yourself....... ill still pop in to see what your opinion is & will still believe it too.....:D

highdef

derekon wrote: »

Can you really see the Mourne Mountains from Balbriggan ?

You can indeed. You can also see the Mourne mountains from Howth Head when the visibility is half decent or better. Also, from Howth Head, you can see Snowdonia and the highest peaks in North Wales, when visibility is excellent.

highdef

And I agree, no need for any apologies.

For the record, here is my account of yesterday.

Left work in Dublin destined for home (close to Enfield and Kilcock but nearer to Enfield) at about 17:30. Was 3.5c, according to the car and the rain was quite heavy. By Leixlip, it was down to 3c and there was sleet mixed in. When I turned off at junction 8 of the M4 (for Kilcock and Clane), it was 2.5c and there were a few "proper" snow flakes mixed in with the rain. Got onto the R148 between Kilcock and Enfield and took the turn for my village. This involves a crossing over a c 150m hill. At the summit of the hill, there was wet snow and no rain and it was 2c. Same when I got to my village at approx 18:15 (c90m ASL).

By 19:00. it was snowing between moderate and heavy in intensity and it began to stick by 20:00. By 20:30, everything was white outside. Was going to the cinema in Liffey Valley for 21:50 so left the house just after 21:00 in case the main roads were bad. Roads in the village were snow covered to a depth of about 2cm although it was very wet. Temp was 1c. Began to climb up the hill and almost made it to the top but lost traction on the long straight (didn't build up enough speed) - Snow was about 3 - 4cm here and it was less wet and more like proper snow. Got over the summit with the help of a push, a long 2nd gear start and a resulting very smelly clutch! Temp at the top was 0.5c. The R148 was very slushy and the M4 where I joined at junction 8 was also very slushy. It was 1c at this point. By the time I got to junction 7 (maynooth), there was virtually no sticking snow except a tiny bit on the verges. It had hit 2c here. The snow was a little bit more sleety in nature. By junction 6 (Leixlip), it was just plain sleet and icy rain with a temp of 2.5 and it was just plain old wet roads. And by Lucan (and on to Liffey Valley), it was just rain with a temp alternating between 3c and 3.5c.

Sorry for such a long post but MT was looking for examples of the transition areas and I thought the above was a good example.

Oh, and as I type, the last shower of the day has just passed. Temp was 2.3c when it began and it's 2.1 now that it has cleared and falling quickly. Roads are slushy outside. All grass is still white and my driveway is still covered with a light covering.

goodies

well if you had been in the car with us travelling from kerry to dublin yesterday you would not have posted this thread at all darkman....from nenagh to roscrea about 4 pm there were blizzard conditions...my hubbie could not see the road properly but was afraid to pull over in case we got stuck with the 2 smallies...we drove on and it turned to heavy rain just after roscrea....in my opinion this was a snow event cogratulations and don't be worrying yourself...in fact the only reason we travelled early in the day was because of reading here we could have been rightly stuck behind the system thank you

ch750536

a good 3 inches here. Lads had a great time in the stuff for at least 2 hrs. Spot on forecast from my window.

delw

Darkman2 no need for this thread,you called snow like many but it didnt fall were you said,big deal you made a call not like your getting paid by tax payers, you shared your insight with us,not every1 can be right all of the time,i still will be looking forward to your future forcasts/imputs

snowbabe

Behave !!!!! I for one really enjoy your posts and they are all very enlightening,to a complete blow in who knows nothing.I also thank you hugely for all you do here,and hope you are not disheartened over a blip(flake):D:DMany thanks to you and indeed all the experts here!

Gaolcon

Forecast,s are always wrong is this news?

darkman2

Thanks for all your replys. I have read each and every one. I appreciate the support but I did not intend this to be a symphaty exercise. I am not so deluded as to think the media don't watch these threads either and that led to the hysteria somewhat (crazy stuff that was not even forcast!). I think it is important to say we are wrong when we are wrong. I don't think there is enough of calling it like it is amongst forcasters. They (inc myself) would like to think we are in a bubble and beyond criticism hiding behind models so sophisticated the human hand is almost out of date just to access them. We are not. I really appreciate MT's post. There is no sense in us carrying on like nothing happened because naturally people will say "that clown got it wrong"....!"why would I believe it now?" I know some of you say this thread was not needed. Maybe not but I think it is important to admit if we got something wrong. We did on this occasion for the most part. I know alot of areas got snow and some "significant" amounts particularly higher ground.

Criticism is healthy and I welcome it because we can adjust quickly. And criticism is deserved in this case.

I really appreciate the support, thanks very much. I am embarrased by it really. Forcasts for marginal snow events on boards will be better as a result of this because ultimately we all have to learn. And we are learning all the time. That's the positive.

Tucking Fypo

I accept your apology....

I've been scouring this section since the big wind/rain episode we had a few months back. I would relay the forecasts from here to all and sundry. I was telling everyone about this second bout of ''significant snow'' and all we got was a drizzle.:pac:

illumin

Tucking Fypo wrote: »

I accept your apology....

I've been scouring this section since the big wind/rain episode we had a few months back. I would relay the forecasts from here to all and sundry. I was telling everyone about this second bout of ''significant snow'' and all we got was a drizzle.:pac:

I think the above can be the downfall of forcasts in this forum. People that browse it think they are "in the know" and have access to a better forcast than whats given on met.ie. They then tell everyone that extreme weather is on the way and when it doesnt come they want to blame the forcasters here.

lucernarian

I still don't think that Darkman predicted anything too out of the ordinary. It just so happened that the likes of Meath, Kildare, Carlow, Laois and Kilkenny didn't get the snow forecast here. But the models didn't really suggest it either. I think the models did an excellent job and better than the last time a mid-atlantic yclonic system hit polar air over this country. It was never likely that Dublin or much of Leinster would see snow and the model guidance never really suggested otherwise. Now if Darkman2 did forcast a few inches in the Pale (higher ground in Louth excepted) then he did get it wrong but I don't remember him saying that.

Su Campu

It was never going to be a widespread snow event, and my initial thoughts on seeing the title were that it was a little over the top. There was just about enough cold there for front and back edge snow, but this was also where the lightest precipitation was going to be - Friday morning being a case in point. When the bulk of the precipitation arrived, uppers were way too warm for low level snow, except for back edge as it retreated back eastwards Friday evening. This was evident even in the forecast sounding I posted on Wednesday, which showed things getting the wrong side of marginal pretty quickly.





Nobody needs to apologise to anybody here. It is only when things go wrong that you learn for the next time. We learn nothing by being right. If it had been two weeks ago we would have had deeper cold already in place and it would have turned out with more snow, but we can't really expect anything other than rain with -2°C uppers.

Pangea

Where are the Forecast was right threads?
There would be a lot of them from the last three freezes :pac:

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I still don't think that Darkman predicted anything too out of the ordinary. It just so happened that the likes of Meath, Kildare, Carlow, Laois and Kilkenny didn't get the snow forecast here. But the models didn't really suggest it either. I think the models did an excellent job and better than the last time a mid-atlantic yclonic system hit polar air over this country. It was never likely that Dublin or much of Leinster would see snow and the model guidance never really suggested otherwise. Now if Darkman2 did forcast a few inches in the Pale (higher ground in Louth excepted) then he did get it wrong but I don't remember him saying that.

I disagree.
Model guidance was crap in my opinion throughout right up to the event and was evident in the posts in the thread by many of us.
In this instance WC was right to be sceptical as was Su campu and mostly maintained their ground on that scepticism due to irish sea air.

Here is Dm2's prediction at T-24

Heres some key examples of what model "guidance" [if you could call it that...] was making some of us post...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69876101&postcount=105

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69876108&postcount=106

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69885165&postcount=133

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69887722&postcount=139 :o:eek::eek::o:o

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69897925&postcount=188

John Eagleton having it bite him in the ass again...

All these places in this buried in snow prediction got rain..thanks to the irish sea being too warm...

Another example of T-24 or less model guidance reliance where the model guidance turned out to be rubbish

Joe Public

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

I don't think anyone always expects the favourite to win in a race and the same goes for weather forecasting. If anyone 100% believed you then it is their fault not yours so keep on forecasting.

metrovelvet

I remember a many years back in the US when the forecaster underestimated a hurricane and the entire east coast was underprepared and tremendous damage was done.

Since then they overestimate every hurricane or windy rainy day. I remember once they closed school becaucse this BIG HUGE mother ****er of a hurricane was supposed to be coming in and it was no more windy than a windy winter night on the west coast of IReland.

However, it is much better to be overwarned than underwarned imo. So dont sweat it. It's the weather, everyone knows mother nature has her own rules and her own swings and roundabouts.

BEASTERLY

Dont worry about it DM2, everybody gets it wrong some times, even M.T gets it wrong the odd time. It is impossible to get it right 100% of the time and it would be totally unreasonable to ask somebody to achieve that. Plus in my opinion your forecast was pretty accurate for much of the country

Most of the people who regularly read this forum are avid weather watchers and understand how difficult forecasting is, never mind forecast such a complex event as Friday. So none of us would criticize anybody for getting a forecast wrong.

I havent seen any posts criticizing you, and if anybody did its because they have no knowledge of the subject at hand. No point worrying about ignorant fools;)

I still think your a great asset to the forum and will trust your opinions as most of the time you are on the money. Keep on making forecasts and contributing to the forum,

Beast