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Turning warm but mostly cloudy

  • 24-07-2010 3:37am
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭


    So a cloudy warm is coming - sunny breaks at times - temperatures reaching maybe 26C in some places.

    It is wrong to criticise MT. He gives alot to this forum of his own time - and frankly how dare anyone question his forecasts or his competency in this area. How in tune are the posters that criticise? Not very much I would suggest.

    But we are here all the same to try and explain why certain things happen. I hope we do that as best we can.


    WE ARE NOT MYSTIC MEGS - sometimes we are wrong.

    But MT has far more experience then anyone here - so might I and others warn of an event - he is always there before hand to say it could happen. And I think his contribution to our forum is wonderful and I really appreciate it. He has the foremost skill and says it as it is. Bare in mind we are evaluating computer models. Nothing more.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 646 ✭✭✭yogidc26


    Thanks Darkman2

    I haven't read the post's you are talking about but for any to speak bad of MT is wrong he gives one of the best forcasts for this little island and he's not even on it. Some people just have nothing better to do :mad:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    darkman2 wrote: »
    So a cloudy warm is coming - sunny breaks at times - temperatures reaching maybe 26C in some places.

    It is wrong to criticise MT. He gives alot to this forum of his own time - and frankly how dare anyone question his forecasts or his competency in this area. How in tune are the posters that criticise? Not very much I would suggest.

    But we are here all the same to try and explain why certain things happen. I hope we do that as best we can.


    WE ARE NOT MYSTIC MEGS - sometimes we are wrong.

    But MT has far more experience then anyone here - so might I and others warn of an event - he is always there before hand to say it could happen. And I think his contribution to our forum is wonderful and I really appreciate it. He has the foremost skill and says it as it is. Bare in mind we are evaluating computer models. Nothing more.

    Was someone criticising MT? Where?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭weisses


    I dunno which posts you talk about either .... But if he makes wrong forecasts ... and that happens sometimes .... he gets criticized ...same as ME would be and has on these forums ... he is not some kind of weather god (he was wrong on my location yesterday ) ;)

    The problem is (i think) that a lot of forecasting is to general and Ireland is not a country for general forecasting

    I appreciate a lot what he does ... no discussion there


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    weisses wrote: »
    he is not some kind of weather god

    now you've gone and burst my bubble.....
    i suppose you're the type that goes around telling people that Santa doesn't exist as well.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Well, i'm sorry but i'd have to agree with them, i can't see 29c ever being reached at all. The met office are forecasting 16/17c all weeks now that is way off 29c and i doubt a national forecast center would get that even marginally wrong. Aswell as that if we have achieved 2c yesterday then that shows things are cooling down.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Its a rotten day here in Donegal, floods!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    It is very wrong to say anything against MT I have not seen that post either, MT gives us a lot of very accurate forecasts here and its greatly appreciated.

    The Met Office are the ones who I think got it very wrong, last Sunday for the week ahead the said that a high pressure would move up and would not break down giving good weather, even last night they said we were in for a good week, however I heard Evelyn on Newstalk this morning and she said we would have rain on and off and Monday would be the best day so who do we beleive ?????????


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    It is very wrong to say anything against MT I have not seen that post either, MT gives us a lot of very accurate forecasts here and its greatly appreciated.

    The Met Office are the ones who I think got it very wrong, last Sunday for the week ahead the said that a high pressure would move up and would not break down giving good weather, even last night they said we were in for a good week, however I heard Evelyn on Newstalk this morning and she said we would have rain on and off and Monday would be the best day so who do we beleive ?????????

    No the uk met office would be more accurate than the irish one, the irish one can be about 5c down and the uk one like 1 or 2c down. The ones on netweather are forecasting 24c for the south east that says it all...


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭weisses


    jambofc wrote: »
    i suppose you're the type that goes around telling people that Santa doesn't exist as well.


    now you've gone and burst my bubble.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,776 ✭✭✭up for anything


    owenc wrote: »
    i doubt a national forecast center would get that even marginally wrong.


    Two words. Michael Fish.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It is quite difficult in Ireland to predict when warm weather will happen and MT does a damn good job. Hes righter than any of the mets and us lot. He must be a fast typer too coz it takes me ages to write even this amount of sentences.

    Mild and misty northwest means at least there wont be any mosquitos here like there was on my holidays. I hates those things


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Two words. Michael Fish.

    Hes on netweather you want me to go over and tell him that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The GFS can often be around 2 degrees off. For Monday alone its showing 24 for parts, which could translate to up to 26 in reality. Not much point looking at the gfs or any model too closely beyond a few days as the output can change hugely from run to run the further you look.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    The GFS can often be around 2 degrees off. For Monday alone its showing 24 for parts, which could translate to up to 26 in reality. Not much point looking at the gfs or any model too closely beyond a few days as the output can change hugely from run to run the further you look.

    Yes but that is the only day that is warm after that it is like 17c and mt thinks its going to be 25c.. he says 25c for tomorrow while the gfs shows 17c you can't add 8c to that! Then on friday he says 27c and the gfs has 14c the temp can't rise a whole 13c above what the gfs says especially with cloud, i don't know what hes using but i'm sorry its really wrong.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,776 ✭✭✭up for anything


    owenc wrote: »
    Hes on netweather you want me to go over and tell him that.

    When you do just say October '87 although I'm sure he doesn't need any reminding.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks, Darkman2, like some of the other posters here I wasn't actually aware of any nasty criticism, certainly don't mind constructive criticism and in fact would be somewhat astounded not to get some from time to time -- actually I am my own worst critic anyway, so not to worry. Forecasts are regularly given a reality check, and I know when they need improvement. Sometimes there's a problem with too much detail to cover, that's going to happen in certain situations when you have showers around the country. I kept going with the daily forecast project despite some misgivings (it wasn't originally meant to be for regular daily forecasts so much as regular discussions) mostly because I got a lot of encouragement, so I figured, well why not? It's not going to kill me to do a bit of work for a change.

    This coming week poses the obvious challenge of determining how much of the potential warmth will actually reach the ground through various amounts of cloud that are bound to come along for the ride -- the factor that gives some of us optimism for warmth is that thicknesses are on a fairly steady upward trend and reach levels that we can usually associate with mid-20s except where marine cloud hangs in all day. Just from a statistical point of view, in spells like this, some days usually break to plenty of sunshine, and some days see the cloud hanging in more, so I expect everyone will gain some satisfaction whether they are pushing for warmth or holding back.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    I dont think anyone here is in a position to be criticical of MT,s forcasts,yes people have a right to question but not be criticising,i havnt seen these posts but if true then shame on you.At the end of the day it is a persons reading &opinion of computer models &can be wrong from time to time,i personaly enjoy&appriciate his daily forcasts


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Just look at the number of "thanks" MT's forecast posts get and you see how valued they are. That speaks for itself. Its always the thread I look at first here in the mornings, and long may that continue. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Darkman2, where are the posts criticising MT? Nobody seems to have seen them except you! :confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,572 ✭✭✭lord lucan


    Just look at the number of "thanks" MT's forecast posts get and you see how valued they are. That speaks for itself. Its always the thread I look at first here in the mornings, and long may that continue. :)

    Yep,i don't even look at Sky News or ME in the morning anymore,straight to Boards and check M.T.'s forecast.:)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Ahorseofaman


    lord lucan wrote: »
    Yep,i don't even look at Sky News or ME in the morning anymore,straight to Boards and check M.T.'s forecast.:)
    Same here and have done so a]for a year or two
    Well done and thanks from me M.T


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    MT is a legend and I have great respect for him for giving freely of his time to provide the best forecast for Ireland there is. Thanks very much MT


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Same here and have done so a]for a year or two
    Well done and thanks from me M.T

    Ditto! I always start the day by reading your forecasts - thanks MT!:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Yes, I say it again, it amazes me to see someone 8 timezones away, who has nothing to do with this country, puts so much time into his forecasts EVERY DAY without fail. Plus you can see by his description above how he uses his experience in formulating these forecasts, taking into account historical events and statistics, probably without even taking a look at a computer model to begin with.

    Merci MT


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Thanks, Darkman2, like some of the other posters here I wasn't actually aware of any nasty criticism, certainly don't mind constructive criticism and in fact would be somewhat astounded not to get some from time to time -- actually I am my own worst critic anyway, so not to worry. Forecasts are regularly given a reality check, and I know when they need improvement. Sometimes there's a problem with too much detail to cover, that's going to happen in certain situations when you have showers around the country. I kept going with the daily forecast project despite some misgivings (it wasn't originally meant to be for regular daily forecasts so much as regular discussions) mostly because I got a lot of encouragement, so I figured, well why not? It's not going to kill me to do a bit of work for a change.

    Good post M.T. I am sure none of us, least of all yourself, wants you to be exulted to sacred cow status, for with that comes the burden of responsibility!

    As for DM's original post, all I can say is how dare him accuse others of criticising MT's forecasts. No one did as far as I am aware. I really thought the whole idea of a free discussion forum was so others of like mind could share their thoughts and opinions on the same subject. DM's post has sinister undertones running through it in that freedom of speech is to be denied incase it might contradict M.T's own view points. As M.T said himself, this is the last thing he wants.

    Anyway back on topic. lots of low stratus today. Will post a pic if you want...:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    owenc wrote: »
    Yes but that is the only day that is warm after that it is like 17c and mt thinks its going to be 25c.. he says 25c for tomorrow while the gfs shows 17c you can't add 8c to that! Then on friday he says 27c and the gfs has 14c the temp can't rise a whole 13c above what the gfs says especially with cloud, i don't know what hes using but i'm sorry its really wrong.

    This is probaly the sort of thing darkman was talking about , altough I'm sure theres no malicious intent in the post , it might be easy to pick it up that way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yep, thanks again (I am not used to having to thank people for weather forecasts :cool:) but there was no issue, there is no issue, and probably there will be an issue when it's 17 instead of 29 on Friday, but part of that I will blame on model error (I wish some of the models round here would make an error ... :D ... with me like :eek: ) ... so discussion on that closed.

    I've really gained a lot of friends on this forum and much unanticipated knowledge of the geography of Ireland as well as the climate in detail ... it must be "meant to happen" because the other day I went to the library, found a really detailed travel guide that seemed to fit my desire to learn about the non-touristy places I might like to visit one day, and the library (through its human intermediary) said I could take the book off their hands, it was "too old" now. I was going to say, but this is Ireland, the book was published in 1985 AD not BC, so how could it be too old?

    But I didn't because most of the seventeen year olds around this part of the world would be dead lucky to identify Ireland on a world map let alone know anything about it, unless of course their parents are Irish, which can happen (I mean, look at me for an example).

    Very interesting read, and I have it for good now. I think if I do get the chance to visit, I would have too long a list of places to fit into the standard 2-3 weeks, which is good, perhaps I would just forget to come back to the airport. My one and only visit before was really conducted in a real fog of overall ignorance that rather matched the weather, sadly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    M.T , your a perfect example of how computer models are nothing without a highly skilled human being , and there is no replacement for that.

    That storm two the thursday before last , models got it totally wrong , you got it 100% correct , same with the storms on Wednesday.

    I'm sure if we comared your accuarcy with met eireann you would shame them.

    Thanks M.T


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly



    But I didn't because most of the seventeen year olds around this part of the world would be dead lucky to identify Ireland on a world map let alone know anything about it.

    You'll be surprised M.T to learn that some 17 year olds here in Ireland haven't a clue where we are on the global map either... ;)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    You'll be surprised M.T to learn that some 17 year olds here in Ireland haven't a clue where we are on the global map either... ;)

    :D:D


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