Turning warm but mostly cloudy

M.T. Cranium

Well, Owen may turn out to be quite right about the big spread, but I wonder if he made that assessment after seeing a later run of the GFS than I was using at the time. Sometimes with these slowly progressing ridges that turn out not to progress, later model runs will go back and forth a few more times and give us all a few more grey hairs too. So I will reserve judgement about what's actually going to happen later in the week until the models get a nice big dose of new input from rapidly-changing situations that are developing over eastern North America. Anyway, I don't regard that sort of thing as personal criticism, it sort of goes with the territory of making weather forecasts and I think Darkman2 correctly identified that in his first post.

Not wishing to start any false leads, I do in fact look at computer models and try to compare all the major ones, but here's an odd factoid for you, I often make some good use of the GEM model, for whatever reason it doesn't seem to meet with much favour in the UK or Ireland, but at least taking the raw output and factoring in what I expect would happen if that raw output is to be accepted, then it seems helpful, especially on the shorter time scales that people actually care about reading forecasts. But then I'm more used to it, possibly.

DeepEasterly (and others) are also spot on about me not wanting to be part of anything too heavy-duty, I really tend to leave the old ego at the door to the forecast room here (virtually speaking) because, as I am sure is well known, there tends to be a lot of ego in meteorology (without ego, you have just metoroly) which to be frank I have always found a bit funny given how far behind all the other sciences we are. And I would prefer to be just a resource instead of a legend (especially after reading the book which I mentioned, as it seems full of nasty ends for Irish legendary figures.)

I suppose, returning to the question at hand, we are all aware of the tendency of the atmosphere to want to return to default settings and the question is, what is the bigger default here, the long-term dry pattern of this year before July started, or the three weeks of disturbed weather we have just seen? The optimist wants to say, warm and dry, while the pessimist figures, more rain and +1 to Saint Swithin (now there's a legendary figure no doubt).

I just updated another thread with this post, but will mention it here too (nasty flooding underway in the Midwest U.S., and you thought you had it bad) ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38395404/ns/weather/

darkman2

I am incidentally talking about a certain person North of the border. Im sorry it ticked me off - dismissing forecasts out of hand as he did. I was OTT in the OP. As others have pointed out MT is so far away and removed yet his interest is remarkable and we all benefit from it. It just irritates me when I see such disregard. Owen if you want to take the BBC as gosple - go ahead and do it. I will tell you now this forum and the people that post have a far more accurate view and you should take note of what is said here before the BBC - we have all the info they have - they are just a media organisation reproducing UKMO data that is in fact old (by about 6 hours) and only give a general description of what the weather may be like. Thanks to the model availability here you get more accuracy. And superb posters like Su and MT to put it in English what it means. It is extraordinary how much media forecasts have been relegated in my view - we have the information straight away from the models.


Again I appoligise for being OTT in the OP. I was in a bad mood. Im not now though!

M.T. Cranium

No worries, I am getting dizzy from the model flip-flop past few runs, now (meaning 00z GFS) there has been a return to the warmer scenario. Where's the head bang icon?

Anyway, strap yourselves in, we are clearly in for a bumpy ride this week.

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

Again I appoligise for being OTT in the OP. I was in a bad mood. Im not now though!

Ah well, sure we all have our ups and downs..

I'd not take anything Owenc might say to heart though, I don't think he means any malicious intent. His style is a bit crude and forward but that's all it is, a style.

Danno

But it is a style -or- attitude that is quite rampant amongs todays 12 to 18 year olds. Blurt it out first and think later then don't even bother to think it out. It smacks of total disrespect for anyone and anything around them. I blame the parenting - or lack of.

Anyways, MTC seems to pass it off like water off a duck's back! Fair play to him!

lucy2010

Deep Easterly wrote: »

You'll be surprised M.T to learn that some 17 year olds here in Ireland haven't a clue where we are on the global map either...

Its also a respect for elders ( Not saying your old MT).I generally have followed in silence until I get really ticked off at some peoples attitude & then I lose it on here. I have followed for the last 2 winters & each & every morning without fail I check your daily forecast. Whether you get it right or wrong has never been an issue for me - Lets say 9 times out of 10 you are right. The level of indepth forecasting you give I certianly would see off MET or whoever. But I think the point is you do this FOC & you give up your time to bring this to us. Like many people on here WOLFE, DE, BB , TROG & all the rest you deserve a level of respect & not have any youngster say your wrong. I certainly wouldnt dream of telling trog the weather on his station is wrong because im getting 25c 2 min up the road.

Qualified by experience is a far better qualification that a list of letters after ones name. But time will tell & some people need to learn a few life lessons & learn to button it.

Thank you again for what you bring to us all the time. Its very much appreciated & i will continue to get my weather for Bray, Co. WICKLOW,IRELAND REPUBLIC every day.

Lumi

He appears to have gone off in a strop for the moment ...

owenc wrote: »

Goodbye i'm sick of people running me down and not beleiving me they aren't here they haven't got a clue. I will not be posting here agian.

While he can be exceptionally rude, in a way it is good to see a young lad like him taking such an avid and 'passionate' interest in the weather

Joe Public

Danno wrote: »

But it is a style -or- attitude that is quite rampant amongs todays 12 to 18 year olds. Blurt it out first and think later then don't even bother to think it out. It smacks of total disrespect for anyone and anything around them. I blame the parenting - or lack of.

Anyways, MTC seems to pass it off like water off a duck's back! Fair play to him!

A quote from Mark Twain covers it:-

"When I was a boy of fourteen, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be twenty-one, I was astonished at how much he had learned in seven years."

BEASTERLY

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Ah well, sure we all have our ups and downs..

I'd not take anything Owenc might say to heart though, I don't think he means any malicious intent. His style is a bit crude and forward but that's all it is, a style.

Well on another thread he said that he was never posting on boards again!:(

WHAT WILL WE DO WHEN THE WEATHER IS BORING NOW?

Well since tomorrow still looks good I'm happy.

Even one good day will do at this stage

Trogdor

lucy2010 wrote: »

Its also a respect for elders ( Not saying your old MT).I generally have followed in silence until I get really ticked off at some peoples attitude & then I lose it on here. I have followed for the last 2 winters & each & every morning without fail I check your daily forecast. Whether you get it right or wrong has never been an issue for me - Lets say 9 times out of 10 you are right. The level of indepth forecasting you give I certianly would see off MET or whoever. But I think the point is you do this FOC & you give up your time to bring this to us. Like many people on here WOLFE, DE, BB , TROG & all the rest you deserve a level of respect & not have any youngster say your wrong. I certainly wouldnt dream of telling trog the weather on his station is wrong because im getting 25c 2 min up the road.

Qualified by experience is a far better qualification that a list of letters after ones name. But time will tell & some people need to learn a few life lessons & learn to button it.

Thank you again for what you bring to us all the time. Its very much appreciated & i will continue to get my weather for Bray, Co. WICKLOW,IRELAND REPUBLIC every day.

I agree:) MT's forecasts and analyses are one of the best things about this forum IMO and we're extremely lucky to have him posting here! While i think discussions of forecasts and reports are a good thing, anyone who just shoots down someone's forecast without a second thought is not welcome here.

Ps: trog's not actually that far ahead of owen on the ole scale of elders

lucy2010

trogdor wrote: »

I agree:) MT's forecasts and analyses are one of the best things about this forum IMO and we're extremely lucky to have him posting here! While i think discussions of forecasts and reports are a good thing, anyone who just shoots down someone's forecast without a second thought is not welcome here.

Ps: trog's not actually that far ahead of owen on the ole scale of elders

So your 13 then ?? lol

No but in all fairness Trog Over the years I have asked you the most ridiculous questions but you didnt sneer or be rude you answered them as simply as you could so I could understand. If someone bothers to put an effort into something you treat them with common courtesy & mind your manners. The rubbish you read from certain posters being plain rude to the gods on here is not on. If I came on here & told you your forecasts were crap & that your station must be on heat because im not getting rain/snow/wind that your reporting I would expect backlash..

Anyway - off down the airshow.. Perfect weather for a Jim Doyles special for the afternoon lol

Takeshi_Kovacs

Pretty cloudy here all day, and was a fair bit misty/foggy as well so good call on that.

Aside from this, what a way to derail a thread, tbh if people have problems with some other poster,
easiest thing to do is just click ignore button on them, and forget about them.

Trogdor

Whether owen wants to leave matters not now, he is banned again after that.
Can we please try to keep to the topic of the thread:)

I'm not actually at home at the moment but the station recorded a high of 23.5C today which sounds fairly pleasant!

alanajane

I think there are a couple of comedians who got the whole weather thing right,

1. Pat Shortt who said "Ireland would be a great little country if they only put a roof on it".

2. Billy Connolly who siad "there is no such thing as bad weather , its bad clothes"

Its the tourists I feel sorry for. What do you pack when you heading to Ireland?

At least we can run up to bedroom and pull out anything from the fur coat to the bikini.

What hits me though is this, when I was little girl and times were tough (never mind recession now) we had two sets of clothes. Winter and summer clothes, there was always great excitment when my father had to go up into the attic to retreive the 'new season fashion', and the joy of seeing the dress I loved and probably worn for the past two summers.

Apart from us getting more materalistic you cant do that now, there is no definate summer and no definate winter - why??

pauldry

Evelyn Cusack said on the 9 weather. 24c for tomorrow and then fresher (18 or 19c)till friday. She didnt say what was happining on Friday but it looks like a warm front pushing up from Southwest and more mist. Certainly East and South are places to be for rest of July and North and West will see rain but not large amounts.

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack said on the 9 weather. 24c for tomorrow and then fresher (18 or 19c)till friday. She didnt say what was happining on Friday but it looks like a warm front pushing up from Southwest and more mist. Certainly East and South are places to be for rest of July and North and West will see rain but not large amounts.

Saw that. Is that feature where they give the expected rain mm and % for the coming week new, or have i just missed the sunday night weather recently???

lucy2010

pauldry wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack said on the 9 weather. 24c for tomorrow and then fresher (18 or 19c)till friday. She didnt say what was happining on Friday but it looks like a warm front pushing up from Southwest and more mist. Certainly East and South are places to be for rest of July and North and West will see rain but not large amounts.

Well yee are more than welcome anytime - extra large back garden plenty of room for tents, will even throw in the odd BBQ & entertainment lol.

Beautiful day down the prom - very very warm breeze, just walked home there now - like being in the canaries at night time.

WolfeIRE

Have had constant drizzle and light rain here since Saturday night. Very depressing.

Looks like drizzle will never be too far away from west and north coast for the next week.

The south and east will fair much better, but might see some rain/drizzle tomorrow evening

Iancar29

IM already sick of this muggy warm weather !

BRING BACK THE RAIN!

DOCARCH

Iancar29 wrote: »

IM already sick of this muggy warm weather !

BRING BACK THE RAIN!

Give it a chance! 24.4c here atm.

Pangea

Very Dull day here in Donegal, its Breezy and its raining now, its chilly outside.

Takeshi_Kovacs

Cloudy all day, but still pretty warm out there today even now at ~9pm

WolfeIRE

piddling again outside. had about 4 hrs of overcast weather this afternoon but it has been dull and wet since saturday

mike65

Largely sunny until mid afternoon then clouded in but with small gaps. Very warm outside.
This is pure F1 but I looked in the future, are you ready for mid 20s in second week of August?