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Heatwave for end of July?

  • 12-07-2010 8:34am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭


    Joe Bastardai thinks so (below). Tail end of GFS output agrees that high pressure will be in place over the UK and Ireland.

    SUNDAY 8 PM LONDON TIME

    Major heat on the way for much of northwest europe last week to 10 days of the month
    We have 2 systems that are rolling through the next 10 days to bring rainfall and lower temps to the northwest but be prepared.. the last 10 days or so of the month are liable to see the center of some 1st class heat develop over the northwest again.. as it is, much of central europe into northwest Russia is very warm anyway.


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Comments

  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,595 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Probably for everywhere in Europe except Ireland!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Probably for everywhere in Europe except Ireland!
    you sound like owen now docarch.:p

    If it does transpire then the rain we have/will have between now and then will have been vital in keeping drinking water levels up. Joe Bastardi may be wrong but I hope not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,572 ✭✭✭lord lucan


    I hope he's right. Rain was badly needed in many areas but a little sunshine wouldn't go amiss now.

    Can't be bad for the economy either. When the weather was good i noticed that the BBQ's were out in force,people were buying a lot more food and drink. People were also out a lot more. I was out in Howth one of the hot weekends and the place was hopping. Chippers had ques out the door and the little market was doing a roaring trade. A friend of mine brought their kids to the zoo and said it was packed,never seen it so busy.

    Contrast that with the weekend just gone. Saturday it was raining here in Dublin all day. I had plans to go out but ended up staying in. There was feck all at Croker to see the Dubs(doesn't help that they're poor atm too),the poor weather putting many off going. I've no statistical evidence for it but it seems that the good weather means people spend more than normal which is all good for an economy still wobbling badly.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,942 ✭✭✭Danbo!


    lord lucan wrote: »
    Contrast that with the weekend just gone. Saturday it was raining here in Dublin all day. I had plans to go out but ended up staying in. There was feck all at Croker to see the Dubs(doesn't help that they're poor atm too),the poor weather putting many off going. I've no statistical evidence for it but it seems that the good weather means people spend more than normal which is all good for an economy still wobbling badly.

    Dont worry, there were a bunch of people in Punchestown propping the economy up with very overpriced food and drink, and the sale of ponchos :D

    I think you're right though, I didnt leave the house on saturday at all, horrible day, hoping for a few more weeks of summer, not after blaring sunshine, but some settled weather would be welcome


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,572 ✭✭✭lord lucan


    Stee wrote: »
    Dont worry, there were a bunch of people in Punchestown propping the economy up with very overpriced food and drink, and the sale of ponchos :D

    I'd forgotten about Oxygen! Ah still,they hope for bad weather so they can role around in the mud!:pac:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    I did mention on another thread that things looked like setting again from 20th, the GSF on wetternzentrale looks very promising.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    Plenty of rain now and then a nice hot spell, with later on some thunderstorms to just keep the ground from drying out too much = perfect.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,595 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    you sound like owen now docarch.:p

    :D............:eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Will welcome a couple of weeks of 25c plus. All the better if there are plenty of thunderstorms thrown in too. Still, I think this current spell of wet weather should be embraced.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    any prolonged dry weather won't improve situation in clare

    this story just came out. clare soil moisture deficit levels are the worst in Ireland, according to ME.

    Water Conservation Measures Remain In Place In Clare

    Clare County Council announced today that despite the rainfall in the last week, water supply to consumers continues to be vulnerable.

    The local authority says a hose pipe ban introduced two weeks ago in the Ennis area, North Clare and Tulla will remain in force until further notice.

    Most water supply sources throughout the County remain at low levels while there is still a considerable soil moisture deficit.

    According to David Timlin, Director of Environmental and Water Services: “While the weather forecast is for unsettled weather in the next few days, we still require significant rainfall in the medium term. The Council urges all consumers to continue to save water and be prudent in its use.”

    Mr. Timlin continued: "It is too early to relax our guard, even though the overall situation for water supply has improved slightly. I urge all public water supply and group water scheme consumers to use water wisely. The Council appreciates the efforts made by everybody to reduce consumption to date. Thanks to your co-operation, it has not been necessary to impose significant shut-offs in any supplies in the past fortnight, other than for a small number of localised maintenance operations."


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    With the current setup the way it is, I reckon what may happen is that over the next week or so, the north Atlantic upper vortex, which is feeding a warm southwesterly airflow over the continent, consolidating the Euro High there, could spawn an upper cut off low, which will head south towards Iberia. An Omega block forms, with the Euro High retrograding westwards over the North Sea. This setup feeds warm moist southeasterlies towards Ireland, giving us the Spanish plume we all crave.


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    for us mere mortals does that mean sun or rain :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    km79 wrote: »
    for us mere mortals does that mean sun or rain :D
    Warm and sunny with all nasty rain fronts knocking on the door but not being allowed in.


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    km79 wrote: »
    for us mere mortals does that mean sun or rain :D

    As Wolf says, warm and sunny, most likely fairly hazy a couple of days after the High moves west, but with thundery troughs making their way towards us from Biscay from time to time as instability increases in the warm humid airmass. These can be our best chance of seeing some proper thundery weather, but unfortunately aren't great photo opportunities, as the haze can hide the storms until they're right up upon us!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 44 CJWRC94


    Su Campu wrote: »
    As Wolf says, warm and sunny, most likely fairly hazy a couple of days after the High moves west, but with thundery troughs making their way towards us from Biscay from time to time as instability increases in the warm humid airmass. These can be our best chance of seeing some proper thundery weather, but unfortunately aren't great photo opportunities, as the haze can hide the storms until they're right up upon us!

    Yes Please , I like the sound of that :D.

    We should do simultaneous praying for that , lol.

    Will these troughs be storm carrying as they make landfall or will they rely on surface heating?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I hope this turns out to be true, we havent had 25C+ in about 3 or 4 years. I have a bad feeling tho that this heatwave will effect Northwest Europe but not Ireland. It could well end up like the situation we've had for the past week with England in the 30s, Wales in the mid 20s and then the dividing line in the Irish Sea with Ireland locked into 18C and rain. I Hope im wrong, could really do with a long hot sunny spell.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    CJWRC94 wrote: »
    Yes Please , I like the sound of that :D.

    We should do simultaneous praying for that , lol.

    Will these troughs be storm carrying as they make landfall or will they rely on surface heating?

    Usually they will form in, and head up from, Biscay, the instability being fed by the warm humid low levels, relatively cooler upper levels, and dynamics from upper jetstreaks between the Euro High and Iberian Low.

    There can be some limited boundary layer modification as the airmass heads northwards over increasingly cooler waters, but the higher the dewpoints to start with, the less this modification will be. But such modification can be overcome by surface heating, so convection can reignite on reaching our shores.

    But let's not go installing Doppler radars on our car roofs just yet, there's nothing set in stone, and things have to fall into place just right for us to get these storms.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 44 CJWRC94


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Usually they will form in, and head up from, Biscay, the instability being fed by the warm humid low levels, relatively cooler upper levels, and dynamics from upper jetstreaks between the Euro High and Iberian Low.

    There can be some limited boundary layer modification as the airmass heads northwards over increasingly cooler waters, but the higher the dewpoints to start with, the less this modification will be. But such modification can be overcome by surface heating, so convection can reignite on reaching our shores.

    But let's not go installing Doppler radars on our car roofs just yet, there's nothing set in stone, and things have to fall into place just right for us to get these storms.

    lol ,

    From past memory , these storms seem to be active when they reach land and die out as they head north.

    Last time was June 2005 , i think , can anybody verify this?

    If they rely on overland heating , well then im screwed with southerly or easterly winds , theres not near enough land between me and the sea.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    CJWRC94 wrote: »
    lol ,

    From past memory , these storms seem to be active when they reach land and die out as they head north.

    Last time was June 2005 , i think , can anybody verify this?

    If they rely on overland heating , well then im screwed with southerly or easterly winds , theres not near enough land between me and the sea.

    No, but if they took a path over say Land's End or southwest Wales then all sorts of coastal convergence and topography effects can come into play and spruce things up again. Plus there's a warm sea-surface anomaly to our south at the moment, which would only help to sustain instability.

    atl_anom.gif


    Actual SSTs

    Reursst.gif


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Usually they will form in, and head up from, Biscay, the instability being fed by the warm humid low levels, relatively cooler upper levels, and dynamics from upper jetstreaks between the Euro High and Iberian Low.

    There can be some limited boundary layer modification as the airmass heads northwards over increasingly cooler waters, but the higher the dewpoints to start with, the less this modification will be. But such modification can be overcome by surface heating, so convection can reignite on reaching our shores.

    On this side of the country, we usually depend on these storms being contantly re-invigorated as they move up over warmer surface temps over the likes of Offaly or 'Tipp'.

    The haze you spoke of in an earlier post is also essential! :) There is something special about the reddy purpley hue and lowered contrast that a Euro haze brings; gives off a sense of threat even when no threat exists. When it does storm, they can be hard to see coming but that just adds to the interest imo. There is something unnerving about hearing an approaching storm with distant booming, high based thunder and not being able see its source! Red/yellow lightening too!

    I am fine tuned to this type of weather as it is my ulitmate fave set up of all. Sadly, it is a set up that just has not been frequent over the last few years. :o


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Theres no heatwave coming and if it comes its going tay london! Is this is in the gfs? I hope so, and i hope its like 28c not 22c or something freezing like that, as we've had that for ages and that won't feel warm at all.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 44 CJWRC94


    Su Campu wrote: »
    No, but if they took a path over say Land's End or southwest Wales then all sorts of coastal convergence and topography effects can come into play and spruce things up again. Plus there's a warm sea-surface anomaly to our south at the moment, which would only help to sustain instability.

    Thanks a mil for that ,

    Fingers crossed from now on I suppose.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 44 CJWRC94


    owenc wrote: »
    Theres no heatwave coming and if it comes its going tay london! Is this is in the gfs? I hope so, and i hope its like 28c not 22c or something freezing like that, as we've had that for ages and that won't feel warm at all.

    LOL , you should win the "BOARDS PERSONALITY OF THE YEAR AWARD" or you would if there was one!

    Keep it up owen , lol.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,572 ✭✭✭lord lucan


    Su Campu wrote: »
    As Wolf says, warm and sunny, most likely fairly hazy a couple of days after the High moves west, but with thundery troughs making their way towards us from Biscay from time to time as instability increases in the warm humid airmass. These can be our best chance of seeing some proper thundery weather, but unfortunately aren't great photo opportunities, as the haze can hide the storms until they're right up upon us!

    I've got the camera ready mounted on a tripod at the bedroom window,bring it the f**k on!!:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    . There is something unnerving about hearing an approaching storm with distant booming, high based thunder and not being able see its source! Red/yellow lightening too!

    I am fine tuned to this type of weather as it is my ulitmate fave set up of all. Sadly, it is a set up that just has not been frequent over the last few years. :o

    indeed paddy1. i believe may 2001 was the last time we had a proper spanish plume. it was great to hear the distant low- rumbling gradually getting closer. At the peak of activity there was fork lightning all over the sky. damn it would be great to get thunder storm activity like that again in the next few weeks.
    obviously thundersnow would make it complete :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    please oh please,heatwave&thunder :D,hpe its nt goina be FI


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    it would be great to get thunder storm activity like that again in the next few weeks.
    obviously thundersnow would make it complete :pac:

    Here we are, aspiring for the near impossible, but Nacho goes one further! :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    owenc wrote: »
    Theres no heatwave coming and if it comes its going tay london! Is this is in the gfs? I hope so, and i hope its like 28c not 22c or something freezing like that, as we've had that for ages and that won't feel warm at all.

    Get outta that will ya. The only 22c in Coleraine is the bus into town.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 520 ✭✭✭Domscard


    Get outta that will ya. The only 22c in Coleraine is the bus into town.

    Owen admitted on another forum on Boards that he was only 14 - I began to see where he was coming from then ;)


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