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31-03-2010, 22:23   #1
 
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Good Friday Low Pressure System

Our next weather comes early Friday morning as a low pressure system arrives from the west, bringing some snow on hills on its leading edge in the southern half of the country, in a moderate southerly wind.

The system is currently deepening south of Greenland, as upper divergence increases in the left exit region of a strengthening jet streak.





By 7am Friday morning the system becomes vertically stacked and reaches its minimum pressure of around 988hPa just off the Kerry coast. Precipitation rates will have reached their peak by then and will start to decrease as it pushes eastwards across the country. Still, it will initiall give spells of snow on hills above ~250m, especially in the southwest, but will turn more and more to rain as the warm sector crosses the south.



By midday Saturday, the backbending occlusion should still be giving some spells of precipitation, rain for most, but with snow lowering to around 200m later in the day behind it. By that stage precipitation should be dying out as a transient ridge approaches Saturday night, giving a cold night and a bright start to Sunday.
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31-03-2010, 22:48   #2
 
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I am wondering if there could be some convective thundery showers developing on Friday afternoon as a slack trough develops on the back edge of the main frontal zone?

No sure of how unstable the airmass will be on the southern flank of the frontal mass, but at the moment it does look that southern areas esp could be at risk, but all depends on how north the main frontal zone will lodge, and at this very early stage, it looks like it may lodge/pivot over the northern half of the country, which could help lift temps in the southern half of the country if the sun breaks though from any considerable length of time, triggering off an few big mammas!

Maybe not though.

Edit: Latest DMI HIRLAM I think may be suggesting this as well:



although hard to read too much into yet.
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Last edited by Deep Easterly; 31-03-2010 at 23:09.
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31-03-2010, 23:30   #3
 
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The Dublin Airport GFS forecast sounding does hint at a narrow window in the late afternoon where a few hundred joules of CAPE may be available, especially with some diabatic heating. Probably most likely in the southeastern third of the country. One to watch

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01-04-2010, 13:46   #4
 
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Tomorrow afternoon is indeed looking good for some of the biggest showers yet this year. The ingredients are there for an interesting afternoon for the southern half of the country.

With good boundary level moisture content, where the post-frontal cloud breaks, allowing decent insolation, several hundred Joules of CAPE are likely, and with equilibrium temperatures of possibly -45°C, electrification is highly likely. Heavy downpours of rain and hail could give localised flash flooding.

The key will be how much insolation we get - if the cloud breaks for long enough, and there is no cirrus shield, surface temperatures of 8°C or more should kick off the show.

I'm sure ESTOFEX will issue us with at least a thunderstorm area, if not a Level 1, in tonight's forecast.



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01-04-2010, 16:04   #5
 
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Certainly a notable bank of instability behind that approaching front alright:


Source: http://en.vedur.is/weather/observati...s/#teg=iceland
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01-04-2010, 16:16   #6
pauldry
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Isnt weather great!
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01-04-2010, 16:39   #7
delw
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typical,i wont b here to see any of it,can any1 tell me what its to b like in holland/belguim for the weekend cheers
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01-04-2010, 17:52   #8
 
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I'm not really into all the stats but just wondering does anyone know what the weather will be like in North Dublin around 3 tomorrow? Suppose to be playing a match...
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01-04-2010, 18:34   #9
owenc
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im thinking we could get snow or sleet tomorrow with maxes about 4c ...today in the sunshune it was about 4-5c..
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01-04-2010, 19:18   #10
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Is there still a chance of snow falling on hills 600m and above from this system?
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01-04-2010, 19:28   #11
owenc
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yes i think we will have sleet here with temps around 3-4c... anyway whats those wee heart things for? snow higher up but certainly not that high up !
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01-04-2010, 19:31   #12
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Let me guess, this will be the apocolypse will it??
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01-04-2010, 20:06   #13
 
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Anyone got anything more to add about the possability of thunderstorms tomorrow??
What parts of the country could we see a potential? Is it just the south, or could the West bear something??
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01-04-2010, 20:11   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NufcNavan View Post
Let me guess, this will be the apocolypse will it??
Hopefully not, I have things to do on Saturday... bloody judgement day always comes around quicker than you expect, and you'd think God could at least wait until the pubs are open.
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01-04-2010, 20:16   #15
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Originally Posted by owenc View Post
anyway whats those wee heart things for?
Owen, they are the sacred hearts of Jesus - tis easter weekend you know, when Jesus turned rocks into Easter eggs. Everyone with a heart next to their profile when signed in is going to Heaven, anyone without one is doomed!!!
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