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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Surely that guy can't end the day winning the election to remain President of the US.

    He sounded like he had spent the night drinking (I know he doesn't drink) after being heavily defeated.

    How many Republicans listening to that over breakfast would be enthused to go and vote?


    I read a great Twitter thread about Trump's teetotalism. Like most things, it's bull.




    ---

    In other news, voting machines have gone down in Spalding County, Georgia.

    https://twitter.com/cbs46/status/1323616434816245761?s=19

    Seems they're gone down in quite a few places over the last few hours.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    bennyl10 wrote: »
    Any link?

    Clearly not counting mail or early too!

    Florida is gonna be a very interesting watch tonight!
    There was a big discrepancy between the two types of voter in terms of the early voting. Democrats in general cast a lot more mail and early ballots than Republicans.

    As a result there will be a lot of downbeat discussion about Democrats "losing their lead", but this is to be expected - the Republican voters still exist, they just hadn't voted yet. It's not like the Democrats were going to get all of these mail-in votes on top of their usual tallies. No matter how much Trump claimed that's what would happen.

    It's really the non-partisan voters that will decide Florida. Trump won 2016 by just over 1%, 100,000 votes. Around 2-3m voters in Florida are considered non-partisan, so they're the ones who decide.
    Poking around at turnout numbers between the partisan voters won't really tell you much, IMHO.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    And voting done. Voter #84 in my center, at 09:48. In and out in about ten minutes, five of which was spent staring at the screen thinking "Do I really want to vote for this person?"

    I have never before been presented with such a God-awful selection of candidates to choose from, and I'm not talking about just the legislature-level candidates either, though I'm not pleased by them (Worse, unlike in 2016, the third party candidates provide no source of succor). The big argument for the school district superintendent isn't anything to do with budgets, but sex education policies. Much though I hate the idea of the candidate for Chief Justice of the Texas Supreme court being nominated after a primary system by the two major parties, I'm sorry, Libertarians, I'm not voting for your guy who, though a lawyer, has never been a judge before. Similarly, though I may have issues with my county sheriff, also selected by the Democrat primary system, at least he's a lawman unlike the Republican who has never, to my knowledge, worn a uniform of any sort.
    I have also learned that the Texas State Railroad Commission hasn't regulated railroads since 2005, and is now purely a regulatory agency for the oil and gas industry.

    With selections like the ones I had, no wonder voter turnout can be low.

    For the curious, my county sample ballot. https://www.bexar.org/DocumentCenter/View/4570/Generic-Sample-Ballot-PDF
    The computer system deleted from my screen (so I didn't have to see them) choices not relevant to me, such as legislators from other districts, city propositions not of San Antonio, etc.

    Unfortunately, I have no time to get politically involved and to try to actively fix this. All I can do is vote for the closest options to my preferences and hope the statisticians and analysts come up with the right conclusions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,761 ✭✭✭Dillonb3


    I read a great Twitter thread about Trump's teetotalism. Like most things, it's probably bull.

    ---

    In other news, voting machines have gone down in Spalding County, Georgia.

    https://twitter.com/cbs46/status/1323616434816245761?s=19

    Trump won Spalding county by 25% in 2016


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,477 ✭✭✭AllForIt


    DK224 wrote: »
    The early data from Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona is showing an absolutely massive GOP turnout. They lead by 9k votes across Florida, the 117k early voting cushion the Dems had was wiped out in 2 hours this morning.

    I'm minded of the UK 2019 GE. Boris was being lambasted left right and centre even from members of his own party. Early evening there were reports of high turnout. Some in the Politics forum were getting excited that this favoured Labour, I thought no way, quite the opposite. Labour had their worst result for decades.

    I think the same sort thing again today. There is no way enthusiastic high turn out is a result of fervent support for Biden. I think most ppl who voted for Trump will vote for him again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,423 ✭✭✭✭Outlaw Pete


    Quite a bit of cheating on show in some polling stations with Biden flyers being handed out inside one and two others had poster sized versions of these flyers pinned to walls near the entrances of at least two.

    Here's some examples, but lots of tweets pointing out similar:


    https://twitter.com/rebellions/status/1323610614024065029


    According to the rules for PA signs are not supposed to be hung within 10 feet of a polling centre. Dems using the excuse that the room inside the centre was ten feet from the entrance. Pretty pathetic excuse and I hope staff rip down such signs when they see them and turf anyone out trying to hand out flyers inside these centres.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    AllForIt wrote: »
    I'm minded of the UK 2019 GE. Boris was being lambasted left right and centre even from members of his own party. Early evening there were reports of high turnout. Some in the Politics forum were getting excited that this favoured Labour, I thought no way, quite the opposite. Labour had their worst result for decades.

    I think the same sort thing again today. There is no way enthusiastic high turn out is a result of fervent support for Biden. I think most ppl who voted for Trump will vote for him again.

    Conservatives had a double digit lead in the polls prior to that election, in this case Trump doesn't have that it is Biden (close to it).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,156 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    AllForIt wrote: »
    I'm minded of the UK 2019 GE. Boris was being lambasted left right and centre even from members of his own party. Early evening there were reports of high turnout. Some in the Politics forum were getting excited that this favoured Labour, I thought no way, quite the opposite. Labour had their worst result for decades.

    I think the same sort thing again today. There is no way enthusiastic high turn out is a result of fervent support for Biden. I think most ppl who voted for Trump will vote for him again.

    Boris had a plan though last year, he went hard after the socially conservative financially lefty type old school Labour voters and in majority of polls he was expected to get a majority. I know their was one from yougov which predicted no majority but that was an exception.

    On Corbyn and Trump two mistakes both have made and we shall see if it costs Trump, both are way to online. The stuff Trump is tweeting about e.g Russian interference, that 1776 project, it doesn't matter in the real world.

    Corbyn also seemed more worried about retweets rather than voters.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 64 ✭✭Canice Picklington


    AllForIt wrote: »
    I'm minded of the UK 2019 GE. Boris was being lambasted left right and centre even from members of his own party. Early evening there were reports of high turnout. Some in the Politics forum were getting excited that this favoured Labour, I thought no way, quite the opposite. Labour had their worst result for decades.

    I think the same sort thing again today. There is no way enthusiastic high turn out is a result of fervent support for Biden. I think most ppl who voted for Trump will vote for him again.

    If most people who voted Trump last time vote for him again - and they will - that isn't nearly enough.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    Just another note on Florida. This is a very conservative county. Trump won 68.8% of it in 2016. It doesn't look like he'll get those numbers this time, despite the big lead in election day voters for the GOP.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,507 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    Splitter!!

    I thought we were the Popular Front?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,118 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph



    They put peoples nicknames on the ballot?!?!?!? "Spike" Really?!?

    But also who needs the name Peter clarifying that they mean "Pete" or that Elizabeth is known as "Liz"?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,118 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    droidus wrote: »
    Just another note on Florida. This is a very conservative county. Trump won 68.8% of it in 2016. It doesn't look like he'll get those numbers this time, despite the big lead in election day voters for the GOP.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048

    Are those number not just the party they claim to be signed up to the monthly newsletter for, not how any of them actually voted? No requirement for any of them to vote for their team.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    And voting done. Voter #84 in my center, at 09:48. In and out in about ten minutes, five of which was spent staring at the screen thinking "Do I really want to vote for this person?"

    I have never before been presented with such a God-awful selection of candidates to choose from, and I'm not talking about just the legislature-level candidates either, though I'm not pleased by them (Worse, unlike in 2016, the third party candidates provide no source of succor). The big argument for the school district superintendent isn't anything to do with budgets, but sex education policies. Much though I hate the idea of the candidate for Chief Justice of the Texas Supreme court being nominated after a primary system by the two major parties, I'm sorry, Libertarians, I'm not voting for your guy who, though a lawyer, has never been a judge before. Similarly, though I may have issues with my county sheriff, also selected by the Democrat primary system, at least he's a lawman unlike the Republican who has never, to my knowledge, worn a uniform of any sort.
    I have also learned that the Texas State Railroad Commission hasn't regulated railroads since 2005, and is now purely a regulatory agency for the oil and gas industry.

    With selections like the ones I had, no wonder voter turnout can be low.

    For the curious, my county sample ballot. https://www.bexar.org/DocumentCenter/View/4570/Generic-Sample-Ballot-PDF
    The computer system deleted from my screen (so I didn't have to see them) choices not relevant to me, such as legislators from other districts, city propositions not of San Antonio, etc.

    Unfortunately, I have no time to get politically involved and to try to actively fix this. All I can do is vote for the closest options to my preferences and hope the statisticians and analysts come up with the right conclusions.

    That's just too much choice for my mind.

    Voting for judges is bananas.

    How long are those lower ballot terms?


  • Registered Users Posts: 326 ✭✭DK224


    https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323663407342641154

    R lead at 75,183 or 0.76 percentage points. 2016 R lead was 0.64 pct pts. Trump is already ahead of 2016 and it's only 11:30 am in Florida.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 64 ✭✭Canice Picklington


    droidus wrote: »
    Just another note on Florida. This is a very conservative county. Trump won 68.8% of it in 2016. It doesn't look like he'll get those numbers this time, despite the big lead in election day voters for the GOP.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048

    I've been trying to crunch the numbers on that tweet for the last 20 minutes based off 2016 results but it's a fool's game, really.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    robinph wrote: »
    They put peoples nicknames on the ballot?!?!?!? "Spike" Really?!?

    But also who needs the name Peter clarifying that they mean "Pete" or that Elizabeth is known as "Liz"?

    I don't know about ballots specifically, but it is not unusual in US legal documentation to also include unofficial aliases or 'commonly used names.'
    According to the rules for PA signs are not supposed to be hung within 10 feet of a polling centre.

    Ten feet? Heck, may as well not bother. It's 100 feet here, and I had difficulty identifying the entrance to my voting location because of the swarm of signs outside obscuring the one which said "enter here". (And the chap inside did confirm that they were more than 100feet away). I ended up going in the exit, I wasn't alone.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Quite a bit of cheating on show in some polling stations with Biden flyers being handed out inside one and two others had poster sized versions of these flyers pinned to walls near the entrances of at least two.

    Here's some examples, but lots of tweets pointing out similar:


    https://twitter.com/rebellions/status/1323610614024065029


    According to the rules for PA signs are not supposed to be hung within 10 feet of a polling centre. Dems using the excuse that the room inside the centre was ten feet from the entrance. Pretty pathetic excuse and I hope staff rip down such signs when they see them and turf anyone out trying to hand out flyers inside these centres.

    I'm glad the GOP never engage in anything like this and certainly have much more robust excuses when they're disenfranchising the electorate.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    As I was saying earlier for those looking for ways to watch the coverage of the election here in Ireland, On the cnn app there is a tab to watch the channel (not in the top right corner where it says “watch tv”) at the top and having just checked it seems to work and it looks live because Anderson cooper is on live now. So that’s one that does work and nbc and msnbc normally do provide a way to watch but I haven’t seen it on the nbc app just yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    DK224 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323663407342641154

    R lead at 75,183 or 0.76 percentage points. 2016 R lead was 0.64 pct pts. Trump is already ahead of 2016 and it's only 11:30 am in Florida.

    To say Trump is ahead is making a huge leap that GOP voters are voting for him at the same rate and more importantly that independents are going for him at the same rate.

    Worrying or celebrating based on party affiliation isn't wise.


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    That's just too much choice for my mind.

    Voting for judges is bananas.

    How long are those lower ballot terms?

    Here, the Board of trustees for the school district is four years, the Railroad commission is six years, State Senators and Representatives are two years, Sheriff was four years. Judges seem to be 6 years at the higher level, 4 at the lower.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    I've been trying to crunch the numbers on that tweet for the last 20 minutes based off 2016 results but it's a fool's game, really.

    It depends a lot on NPA's, how many Rep's break for Biden and total turnout, however Wasserman says that if Trump is 62% or lower at their 7pm reporting dump then he's probably lost Florida and therefore the election.

    Live updates on Florida here if anyone wants the real numbers:

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,148 ✭✭✭letowski


    Miami-Dade and Sarasota aren't doing any live tracker so it's not worth putting too much stock into numbers until 12am.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,404 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    CNN

    Reporter asked people in line '' who you voting for'' They're like '' do I have to tell you '' No no course not
    ''cool '' all very mellow. But lets get real, if it was Biden they'd say Biden.

    Trump has millions of secret voters.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,937 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    CNN

    Reporter asked people in line '' who you voting for'' They're like '' do I have to tell you '' No no course not
    ''cool '' all very mellow. But lets get real, if it was Biden they'd say Biden.

    Trump has millions of secret voters.

    Unless they're some of the Republicans who have had enough and don't want to face the anger of some on their own side.

    We'll find out in about 12 hours.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Oafley Jones


    CNN

    Reporter asked people in line '' who you voting for'' They're like '' do I have to tell you '' No no course not
    ''cool '' all very mellow. But lets get real, if it was Biden they'd say Biden.

    Trump has millions of secret voters.

    Because Trump voters are usually so demure?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,404 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Unless they're some of the Republicans who have had enough and don't want to face the anger of some on their own side.

    We'll find out in about 12 hours.


    Yes we will, and it will be 2016 all over again


    Trump Wins Florida
    Trump Wins Texas
    Trump Wins PA
    Trump Wins Georgia
    Trump Wins Ohio


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,016 ✭✭✭Shelga


    Yes we will, and it will be 2016 all over again


    Trump Wins Florida
    Trump Wins Texas
    Trump Wins PA
    Trump Wins Georgia
    Trump Wins Ohio

    Please, please no.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,937 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Yes we will, and it will be 2016 all over again


    Trump Wins Florida
    Trump Wins Texas
    Trump Wins PA
    Trump Wins Georgia
    Trump Wins Ohio

    Fingers crossed............














    ................ you are wrong


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Yes we will, and it will be 2016 all over again


    Trump Wins Florida
    Trump Wins Texas
    Trump Wins PA
    Trump Wins Georgia
    Trump Wins Ohio

    Biden can still win if that happens... :pac:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,380 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Yes we will, and it will be 2016 all over again


    Trump Wins Florida
    Trump Wins Texas
    Trump Wins PA
    Trump Wins Georgia
    Trump Wins Ohio

    Would you prefer to see Trump re-elected?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    AllForIt wrote: »
    I think the same sort thing again today. There is no way enthusiastic high turn out is a result of fervent support for Biden. I think most ppl who voted for Trump will vote for him again.

    Perhaps not, but it could very well be fervent support for getting rid of Trump.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 64 ✭✭Canice Picklington


    Let's go back to Sumter County in Florida for the craic.

    2016 results:
    Vote share: Trump 68.78% Clinton 29.53%
    Vote numbers: Trump 52,730 Clinton 22,638
    Vote share margin: 39.25%
    Raw vote margin: 30,092
    Total county turnout: 76,665
    State result: Trump 49.02% Clinton 47.82%
    Sumter County as a percentage of total Florida votes cast: 0.81%

    2012 results:
    Vote share: Romney 67.13% Obama 32.25%
    Vote numbers: Romney 40,646 Obama 19,524
    Vote share margin: 34.88%
    Raw vote Margin: 21,122
    Total county turnout: 60,479
    State result: Obama 50.01% Romney 49.13%
    Sumter County as a percentage of total Florida votes cast: 0.71%


    This is a Trump county and turnout is well up again - but is the increased turnout good for him this time? Or, could it be a case that if turnout jumps in Trump supporting counties more than it does in Biden counties, that could offset a slight loss in vote share in those counties, because on the raw numbers, you could have a bigger margin with less vote share?

    What's noteworthy about the difference between 2012 and 2016 is not how much Trump's vote share jumped by, but how much Clinton's fell from Obama. Clinton's raw vote numbers were higher than Obama's, but the absolute vote margin was higher - and Sumter county as a percentage of total Florida votes cast increased from 0.71% to 0.81%.

    I still think Trump needs to hit 68.00% in Sumter county as a minimum because turnout will likely be up across the state.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,538 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    robinph wrote: »
    They put peoples nicknames on the ballot?!?!?!? "Spike" Really?!?

    But also who needs the name Peter clarifying that they mean "Pete" or that Elizabeth is known as "Liz"?

    Done in Ireland too. Cope, Boxer, Ming, GV


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,404 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Would you prefer to see Trump re-elected?


    No, but that's what will happen


    oAjeo.png


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,091 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    DK224 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323663407342641154

    R lead at 75,183 or 0.76 percentage points. 2016 R lead was 0.64 pct pts. Trump is already ahead of 2016 and it's only 11:30 am in Florida.

    The above tweet suggest that they don't have Miami data in the figures - If I understand the * comments.

    Miami is heavily Democrat is it not?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,404 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Biden will take Michigan from Trump, and Georgia , PA is anyone's ,
    Arizona could decide it, Biden from polls has that, and he'll need it to win


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,765 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    There's a live data feed of the turnout in Florida, here's the specific link to Pinellas County, which switched red last time and is viewed as a bellweather.

    Democrats had a lead before polling stations opened, but it's shrinking all morning. Democrats percentage of the votes cast is 38.5% as of typing this.

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

    In 2016, Republicans cast 38.7% of the votes in Florida last time, Democrats cast 38.1%

    My initial read is that both the Republicans and Democrats have both been able to get the vote out with neither side appearing to benefit significantly so far. It looks like Florida will be decided by the non-affiliated voters.
    It's now noon and Trump is ahead by 300.

    The Republicans had 10k+ votes in Pinellas at the end of polling in 2016, but will not quite manage to match that.

    I am sceptical that Trump voting Republicans in 2016 will switched sides in any serious way. I think the non party voters will be vital. Will the Democrats be able to flip enough of these voters this time out? It's too early to say really. You would have to think he would be even slightly more popular than Hillary?

    My initial gut feeling at this stage if I was Biden would be cautious optimism. I think he will almost certainly get closer to Trump this time than Clinton did in 2016, which reads will for the rest of the country.


  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    No, but that's what will happen


    oAjeo.png

    There isn’t a snowballs chance in hell Trump wins Wisconsin.

    There is literally zero scenarios where he wins there if Biden is picking up Georgia. If Biden wins Georgia, he’s winning Wisconsin by double digits and is picking up Pennsylvania, North Carolina and possibly Florida too.

    The amount of people who just go out on a whim here astounds me.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    Let's go back to Sumter County in Florida for the craic.

    2016 results:
    Vote share: Trump 68.78% Clinton 29.53%
    Vote numbers: Trump 52,730 Clinton 22,638
    Vote share margin: 39.25%
    Raw vote margin: 30,092
    Total county turnout: 76,665
    State result: Trump 49.02% Clinton 47.82%
    Sumter County as a percentage of total Florida votes cast: 0.81%

    2012 results:
    Vote share: Romney 67.13% Obama 32.25%
    Vote numbers: Romney 40,646 Obama 19,524
    Vote share margin: 34.88%
    Raw vote Margin: 21,122
    Total county turnout: 60,479
    State result: Obama 50.01% Romney 49.13%
    Sumter County as a percentage of total Florida votes cast: 0.71%


    This is a Trump county and turnout is well up again - but is the increased turnout good for him this time? Or, could it be a case that if turnout jumps in Trump supporting counties more than it does in Biden counties, that could offset a slight loss in vote share in those counties, because on the raw numbers, you could have a bigger margin with less vote share?

    What's noteworthy about the difference between 2012 and 2016 is not how much Trump's vote share jumped by, but how much Clinton's fell from Obama. Clinton's raw vote numbers were higher than Obama's, but the absolute vote margin was higher - and Sumter county as a percentage of total Florida votes cast increased from 0.71% to 0.81%.

    I still think Trump needs to hit 68.00% in Sumter county as a minimum because turnout will likely be up across the state.

    Yep, thats exactly right. Less than 62% he loses the election, less than 65% Biden has an edge in Florida, less than 68% Trump's underperforming slightly and it's gonna be close - as I understand it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,404 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Faugheen wrote: »
    There isn’t a snowballs chance in hell Trump wins Wisconsin.

    There is literally zero scenarios where he wins there if Biden is picking up Georgia. If Biden wins Georgia, he’s winning Wisconsin by double digits and is picking up Pennsylvania, North Carolina and possibly Florida too.

    The amount of people who just go out on a whim here astounds me.




    Yea well Polls had Clinton winning Wisconsin, supposedly 83.5% Clinton. That didn't work out too well. People in the sticks don't take polls.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 64 ✭✭Canice Picklington


    droidus wrote: »
    It depends a lot on NPA's, how many Rep's break for Biden and total turnout, however Wasserman says that if Trump is 62% or lower at their 7pm reporting dump then he's probably lost Florida and therefore the election.

    Live updates on Florida here if anyone wants the real numbers:

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin
    I clicked into that link, it's Pinellas County, Florida, a big swing county on the west coast of Florida near Tampa.

    In 2016 Trump won it 239k to 233k.

    In 2012 Obama won it 239k to 213k.

    It's currently at 72.30% turnout - 514k of an eligible 711k voters have voted.

    Currently, Republican registered voters hold a very slender advantage over Democratic registered voters - 194k to 193k - just 762 of a gap in actual numbers.

    118k registered independents have voted.

    Just 58k of those 514k votes came today, though obviously there is half the day yet to go.

    Of course a lot will depend on the independent voters - but based on those figures in a big swing county, I would be very cautiously optimistic for Biden?

    Page is updating every ten minutes with new figures.

    Thoughts?

    Edit: For comparison: in 2016, 193k registered Republicans voted compared to 183k Democrats.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,213 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    MJohnston wrote: »
    FF are only left-wing in an American sense. FF are centre-right for most things and Leo has FG heading off to the far right.

    Here's a good couple of maps for you:

    Labor on the right?
    That discredits your entire post


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    I clicked into that link, it's Pinellas County, Florida, a big swing county on the west coast of Florida near Tampa.

    In 2016 Trump won it 239k to 233k.

    In 2012 Obama won it 239k to 213k.

    It's currently at 72.30% turnout - 514k of an eligible 711k voters have voted.

    Currently, Republican registered voters hold a very slender advantage over Democratic registered voters - 194k to 193k - just 762 of a gap in actual numbers.

    118k registered independents have voted.

    Just 58k of those 514k votes came today, though obviously there is half the day yet to go.

    Of course a lot will depend on the independent voters - but based on those figures in a big swing county, I would be very cautiously optimistic for Biden?

    Page is updating every ten minutes with new figures.

    Thoughts?

    I don't know enough about Florida partisan voting time distribution TBH. At this stage I would say its potentially good, but we'll have to wait until midnight to know for sure. Certainly the chimes of doom from trump supporters seem misguided at this stage.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,121 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Interesting decision by long suffering Judge Sullivan.


    https://twitter.com/MMineiro_CNS/status/1323671683169984512?s=20


    Hopefully it will result if more votes being counted.


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    The above tweet suggest that they don't have Miami data in the figures - If I understand the * comments.

    Miami is heavily Democrat is it not?

    Within 10%. (55-45)

    Clinton did much better than the average Democrat there, looking at the 2016 results for Senator, representative, etc. She got some 64% of the Presidential vote, but that was not typical for the rest of the balloting.

    https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Dade/64620/184069/en/summary.html

    Florida Hispanics tend to lean more Republican than those in other locations.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,121 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    In the age of soundbite sized news segments, this is fantastic


    https://twitter.com/OmarBaddar/status/1323488979619139585?s=20


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,239 ✭✭✭Jimbob1977


    The American election system is flawed.

    Voting allowed weeks before election day, counting postal ballots that are date stamped before Election Day.

    Going through election rolls to disenfranchise voters.

    It's a recipe for manipulation and fraud.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,380 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    everlast75 wrote: »
    In the age of soundbite sized news segments, this is fantastic


    https://twitter.com/OmarBaddar/status/1323488979619139585?s=20

    Excellent.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John




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