Cold Spell Discussion (Ireland): Cold/Frosty/Icy with Snow for some

munsterlegend · 17-01-2013 2:33pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Only goes out 48 hours.

Hard to know about the weekend yet. Nothing nailed at the moment.

Where theres hope and potential I will be happy! Maybe just maybe we might get lucky down south and get an 80's event.

jo06555 · 17-01-2013 2:38pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Upgrades continue.

Oh good lord now its official great Britain controls the weather !!!!! Whats the chances all the snow hitting only uk and ni

Big Daddy Cool · 17-01-2013 2:38pm

I could really do with snow from this and not rain, cos the amount forecast could flood my site again.

Graupel · 17-01-2013 2:39pm

Wales is in for a right pasting tomorrow, Would take a miraculous turn for me down here in Wexford to get anything out of tomorrows system but I believe it's just the start of something big.

Looking forward to the 12zs.

munsterlegend · 17-01-2013 2:39pm

jo06555 wrote: »

Oh good lord now its official great Britain controls the weather !!!!! Whats the chances all the snow hitting only uk and ni

I presume you realise the Met Office only forecast for UK and Northern Ireland? They don't issue warnings for the Republic of Ireland?

Birdnuts · 17-01-2013 2:40pm

The Beeb at lunchtime graphics suggest alot of snow here tommorow in the N and E. Certainly a big upgrade compared to what they were showing this time yesterday in regards to this part of the world.

jo06555 · 17-01-2013 2:42pm

Rabidlamb wrote: »

Could the cold front move westwards more or is thus basically the best we can expect??

Wine Goddess · 17-01-2013 2:43pm

Very exciting!
Dusting off the dust from the snow boots, yoo hoo!:D:D:D:D:D

At times like this though I do miss Su Campu

and his vast knowledge.....hope he's lurking somewhere!

munsterlegend · 17-01-2013 2:44pm

jo06555 wrote: »

Could the cold front move westwards more or is thus basically the best we can expect??

Unlikely thought there may be small changes. Tomorrow is more a north and east event on current forecasts. From Saturday on offers more hope at this stage outside these areas.

srocliffe · 17-01-2013 2:45pm

Wine Goddess wrote: »

At times like this though I do miss Su Campu and his vast knowledge.....hope he's lurking somewhere!

He's on NetWeather forums these days

jo06555 · 17-01-2013 2:45pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Unlikely thought there may be small changes. Tomorrow is more a north and east event on current forecasts. From Saturday on offers more hope at this stage outside these areas.

Hopefully as south east im hoping gets a pasting ; (

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 17-01-2013 2:47pm

Met Eireann have removed the warning for next week, well, replaced it with a one liner !

Next week: There is a high risk of a very cold week ahead with some severe frosts. Some falls of snow possible also especially early in the week. However details are highly uncertain.

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 2:48pm

jo06555 wrote: »

Hopefully as south east im hoping gets a pasting ; (

Maybe on top of the Comeraghs!

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 2:49pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

Met Eireann have removed the warning for next week, well, replaced it with a one liner !

[quoteNext week: There is a high risk of a very cold week ahead with some severe frosts. Some falls of snow possible also especially early in the week. However details are highly uncertain.

Probably because of the ECM downgrade. Still a lot of uncertainty.

munsterlegend · 17-01-2013 2:50pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Probably because of the ECM downgrade. Still a lot of uncertainty.

when was that downgrade?

jo06555 · 17-01-2013 2:52pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Probably because of the ECM downgrade. Still a lot of uncertainty.

So this is the start of the downgrades I take it .... ok coat in hand ready for the slideeeeeeee!!!!!!!

ninebeanrows · 17-01-2013 2:54pm

NAE will be crucial, some support for a milder sector moving back as the small low development stalls over Ulster.

Hopefully this will be ruled out on the NAE 12z.

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 2:54pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

when was that downgrade?

The strong, cold easterly for early next weekend looks a lot less impressive.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 17-01-2013 2:55pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

NAE will be crucial, some support for a milder sector moving back as the small low development stalls over Ulster.

Hopefully this will be ruled out on the NAE 12z.

Would you hope that the 12z NAE would pretty much give us the likely story WC ?

BEASTERLY · 17-01-2013 2:57pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

when was that downgrade?

This mornings ECM was not great for cold at all! Only brief encounters with air with 850hpa temps of -5 or lower. Can be seen here: http://en.vedur.is/weather/shipping/atlantic/#type=temp

GEM poor enough too in the short term for temps, good synoptics though. UKMO the coldest of the lot for Sunday

Musicman2000 · 17-01-2013 2:57pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The strong, cold easterly for early next weekend looks a lot less impressive.

So its a downgrade now? To good to be true last night.

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 3:01pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

So its a downgrade now? To good to be true last night.

0Z was just slackier, messier, less impressive. Still good overall in terms of the bigger picture since details several days away and will change again anyway, one way or the other.

Graupel · 17-01-2013 3:05pm

I think the word "downgrade" should be banned around here to prevent mass hysteria.

whitebriar · 17-01-2013 3:07pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

But have we not got colder air from the east meeting the air flow from the west over Ireland?

Yes,but only on the frontal boundary.
Wrong side of that and it's a tropical 5 to 8c.

Villain · 17-01-2013 3:10pm

This isn't the ramp thread, downgrades are likely, imo most areas of Ireland won't see lying snow in the next 48 hours with North East being the exception and higher areas in the East. Beyond that there is great potential/risk of a more widespread snow but that's too far away for any certainty.

Be realistic and you won't be too disappointed.

TeaCup2 · 17-01-2013 3:10pm

The pattern over the last week seems to be downgrades in the morning and upgrades in the evening, anyone know why this is the case?

gbee · 17-01-2013 3:13pm

lucy2010 wrote: »

Has anyone a link to MTs ramp on netweather earlier - was the bomb lol

A mischievous bomb imho.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 17-01-2013 3:14pm

Right, any 12z predictions ?

Myself I am going for a westward shift in the cold on the GFS, ECM and NAE

peteeeed · 17-01-2013 3:15pm

TeaCup2 wrote: »

The pattern over the last week seems to be downgrades in the morning and upgrades in the evening, anyone know why this is the case?

this fella?

Screen-shot-2012-05-10-at-16.03.21.png

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 3:17pm

Whos that, pic too small.

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 3:22pm

Higher precip in the east and northwest on the 12Z NAE. Looks like another adjustment west.

Conrach · 17-01-2013 3:24pm

Snow information UK have just tweeted that they expected the UKMO to upgrade to a red warning for NI for tomorrow.

ninebeanrows · 17-01-2013 3:24pm

Yep some high precip amounts, Wicklow mtn could get buried.

But still have to see the other data before we see where the crucial -5c line is and more importantly dewpoints.

The orientation of the low is not clear from the accum precip charts.

gbee · 17-01-2013 3:26pm

Only interested in Cork weather, so I've made my own

whitebriar · 17-01-2013 3:27pm

I think Lucy asked about this earlier,but for those who are interested in mt craniums posts on netweather,here's a link to his profile there.
Just click on posts on the left snd you'll have a list of the latest,click on any that interest you for the full post.

http://forum.netweather.tv/user/4238-roger-j-smith/

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 3:27pm

gbee, rain in measured in mm not cm

:P

Rebelbrowser · 17-01-2013 3:31pm

Just an observation on the fronts, after the present, due to pass over us on Sunday onwards.

The present front is here in Cork now where it is raining. Its quite mild out. In fact according to the 6z GFS the uppers at noon when the front landed were around +3. On Sunday, the present guidance is that the front landing will have -4 to -6 uppers accompanying it. That's a ca. 9 degree difference in accompanying uppers. It will also then run into the easterly -6s coming from the UK. You'd have to give that a helluva chance of falling as snow everywhere......

ninebeanrows · 17-01-2013 3:32pm

NAE could show disruptive for some areas.

Obviously usual coastal Dublin the last to see it etc..

jo06555 · 17-01-2013 3:33pm

Rain has arrived in Waterford too ...

Mr Benevolent · 17-01-2013 3:41pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Obviously usual coastal Dublin the last to see it etc..

*grumblegrumble*

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 3:45pm

6am. Almost identical to the last run so far.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 17-01-2013 3:46pm

12z NAE for tomorrow morning

Graupel · 17-01-2013 3:48pm

That pink is creeping closer to the south east on every run, I've an early start tomorrow so hopefully get a chance to catch it before it turns back to rain.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 17-01-2013 3:50pm

The pink has made a definite shift west at midday

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 3:52pm

Yes, shifted a little further west and a little further south.

Uppers slightly colder in those areas.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 17-01-2013 3:53pm

Also DPs and Uppers better

Saganist · 17-01-2013 3:56pm

Judging by 12Zh NAE, would I be right in saying that most of Dublin / Meath / Most of Leinster will get a good douse of the sneachta by Midday tomorrow ?

jo06555 · 17-01-2013 3:56pm

Graupel wrote: »

That pink is creeping closer to the south east on every run, I've an early start tomorrow so hopefully get a chance to catch it before it turns back to rain.

I noticed that too .. I know nothing about it but is it likely it could keep creeping closer??

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 3:58pm

Rain turning to snow over a wider area on the 12Z NAE.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 17-01-2013 3:59pm

At 15:00 the snow is still a tad further south than on the last run

Cold Spell Discussion (Ireland): Cold/Frosty/Icy with Snow for some

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