Cold Spell Discussion (Ireland): Cold/Frosty/Icy with Snow for some

ninebeanrows

Enough model guidance this morning to open a warning/chat thread for likely cold spell which could arrive with a bang as early as tomorrow.

Initial guidance is showing the chance for snow to fall in some areas as early as 6am Friday, however there remains uncertainty over where the border between rain and snow will be and with timing.

Overnight Thursday heavy rain will push from the west to affect most areas. During Friday morning cold air will begin to be pushed in to the northeast and this will continue through Friday slowly turning the rain to snow from the northeast. The extend southwest of the transition remains uncertain. Areas right on eastern coastal fringes will take a little longer for a full transition to snow due to sea influence.

There is potential for significant accumulations of snow in places through Friday evening and overnight.

Through Friday night the cold air will steadily track over much of the country, particularly more northern parts with periods of snow coming onto the east coast at times.

Saturday will see Ireland in a bitter east flow with snow showers at times on the east coast. Extremely icy overnight Saturday with minima towards -6c.

Late Sunday frontal features from the southwest will bring further risk of snow to many areas, but track and detail will be best kept for later.


So initial risk tomorrow, with the NAE map for 6pm Friday used as rough guidance (but expect some change to snow-line between now and T0)

Duiske

Just a word on the temps forecast for late Sat night / early Sunday morning. I would not be surprised if temps of -10 were recorded in inland areas with snow cover. If I had to pick an area most at risk of snow cover and extreme low temps, County Monaghan would be a good bet.

DOCARCH

To kick things off, at least Evelyn is on duty this morning.

Just caught the end of her sea area forecast on Radio 1 and she said ' tune in at 5 to 8...looks like some very wintry weather on the way'.

Larbre34

Crikey, had to check I wasnt still dreaming when I read here and MetE, sounds like things got very serious overnight

force eleven

DOCARCH wrote: »

To kick things off, at least Evelyn is on duty this morning.

Just caught the end of her sea area forecast on Radio 1 and she said ' tune in at 5 to 8...looks like some very wintry weather on the way'.

Certainly when ME start talking about sub zero daytime maxes later next week, you start to sit up. But see how quickly they changed from yesterday morning. FI is 48-72 hours.

Pangea

and Im in the pink zone! Nice

Tom Cruises Left Nut

NAE for Friday at 6am

pad199207

Oh that's delicious !!!

average_runner

t|nt|n wrote: »

NAE for Friday at 6am

But is that rain after it?

DOCARCH

average_runner wrote: »

But is that rain after it?

It is, but, in theory the front should be stalled and/or move back west or fizzle out.

The Nutty M

:D

I can't help but singing it this morning.Come on you bustard and SNOW.

ninebeanrows

The MetE website forecast a world away from last nights New Forecast.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

The MetE website forecast a world away from last nights New Forecast.

Evelyn in a good mood !

Finally we see something we can track on the hi-res models, its been emotional up to now

BLIZZARD7

Radio forecast sounds nice!! and she at least stresses uncertainty unlike Gerry- also says high possibility of severe weather.

Possible disruptive Snow tomorrow!

Snow showers in the east on Saturday...




Dan

Slashermcguirk

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Radio forecast sounds nice!! and she at least stresses uncertainty unlike Gerry- also says high possibility of severe weather.

Possible disruptive Snow tomorrow!

Snow showers in the east on Saturday...




Dan

Never seem such a dramatic change of forecast. Met eireann all rain yesterday, now snow. Unreal

Pangea

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VS4X5_-OAE8








Also The Main BBC forecast said Conditions will be atrocious in NI tomorrow!

gerrybhoy

better get my snow gear ehm let my wee fella get his snow gear at the ready

Cheers folks

If this comes off you have made a 38 year old ehmm 3 year old very happy:cool::D

maquiladora

The UK Met Office only has a rain warning for N.I. after downgrading it from an earlier snow warning. They will have to change that now today. Just like Met Eireann have changed their forecast.

When the models change, it makes the official forecasters a soft target no matter where they are.

ninebeanrows

Now the initial snow pivot line Friday is still up for debate. It could be Wicklow or it could be Down. The snow line has conensus support to drift quickly south through Saturday morning, but for Friday, the exact pivot point is still uncertain. So Dubliners should not be counting their snowflakes for tomorrow yet.

Villain

Go on Evelyn ya good thing

pad199207

Weathercheck wrote: »

Now the initial snow pivot line Friday is still up for debate. It could be Wicklow or it could be Down. The snow line has conensus support to drift quickly south through Saturday morning, but for Friday, the exact pivot point is still uncertain. So Dubliners should not be counting their snowflakes for tomorrow yet.

Especially coastal areas!

ninebeanrows

pad199207 wrote: »

Especially coastal areas!

Yep we'll be the last to see the rain turn to snow. But hey it's always been the case, we're well used to it by now.

Big Daddy Cool

Weathercheck wrote: »

Now the initial snow pivot line Friday is still up for debate. It could be Wicklow or it could be Down. The snow line has conensus support to drift quickly south through Saturday morning, but for Friday, the exact pivot point is still uncertain. So Dubliners should not be counting their snowflakes for tomorrow yet.

how about us in North Meath?

inabina

Villain wrote: »

Go on Evelyn ya good thing

Beat's Gerry's incredibly mild ramping on 9pm news last night...he will not be comfortable with this!

pad199207

Maybe Evelyn has the snowy weather pre-booked for herself

mickger844posts

What a change in forecasts overnight from the Met. Looking good for the East and North East in the next few days and into the weekend. A quick scan through Dew Points and 850 temps temper my excitement somewhat imby especially and for the south in general. Still potential into next week as the cold deepens.

irish1967

Ok. Seems like a good time to sign in on my phone for the first time this winter. Greetings old friends. Nice to see you again this year.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

irish1967 wrote: »

Ok. Seems like a good time to sign in on my phone for the first time this winter. Greetings old friends. Nice to see you again this year.

Yay ! Welcome back

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

What a change in forecasts overnight from the Met. Looking good for the East and North East in the next few days and into the weekend. A quick scan through Dew Points and 850 temps temper my excitement somewhat imby especially and for the south in general. Still potential into next week as the cold deepens.

Regarding 850 temps, I'd use hi-res models like the NAE. For example, 0Z NAE has -9 uppers in Ulster at 48 hours where the GFS has -5. And for frontal snow you don't need uppers as cold as you do for showers anyway.

rainbowdash

Can somebody explain what uppers means, does -9 uppers mean higher or lower temps than that on the streets of Ireland

maquiladora

rainbowdash wrote: »

Can somebody explain what uppers means, does -9 uppers mean higher or lower temps than that on the streets of Ireland

It's the upper air temperature, about 1.5km up. One of the important factors that make the difference between rain/snow.

Rebelbrowser

rainbowdash wrote: »

Can somebody explain what uppers means, does -9 uppers mean higher or lower temps than that on the streets of Ireland

-9 would be about 0 at street level normally but here will feel a helluva lot colder given source of the air etc

ninebeanrows

I suspect the 6z NAE is making more of the small Irish Sea LP again on the 6z.

Could increase precip/snow totals Friday.

Although i can't see the pivot point yet.

ninebeanrows

6am tomorrow NAE

pad199207

Eh some people on NW expecting the snow are saying " its so unfair" the cheek of em! Have they no idea what we have been going through past few days!

Rebelbrowser

Is the more westward (than anticipated) snow going to prevent the UK turning into one big snowfield and will that have knock on effects for us? I know last night much was being made of the very cold winds likely to emanate from the UK over snowfields there. In particular, from an imby perspective, I'm thinking of Sunday and onwards as I can't see us down here seeing anything before then (though GFS precipitation and accumulated snow charts suggest otherwise surprisingly). Any thoughts folks on what effect if any this might have?

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

6am tomorrow NAE

Looking very good for the East..I am still very wary of any front for later in the weekend especially with air coming from the Atlantic. It will be interesting to watch..

aboyro

it is unfair, coastal waterford loses out again!!!!!:(

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

Looking very good for the East..I am still very wary of any front for later in the weekend especially with air coming from the Atlantic. It will be interesting to watch..

On that point, Evelyn at 7.55 was talking about this as a classic cold east air meets mild moist west air scenario. But isn't it a bit different this time as, certainly on Monday, it looks like cold moist western air (-4/-5 uppers, etc)? This is what I am basing most of my optimism on for these here parts.....

maquiladora

30 hours :



Rain to snow line is a little further south on this run.

Looks like some areas would see snow turning back to rain. So don't expect to be making snowmen just yet!

Rebelbrowser

aboyro wrote: »

it is unfair, coastal waterford loses out again!!!!!:(

Patience. Every dog has its day. Yours should be Monday.

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

On that point, Evelyn at 7.55 was talking about this as a classic cold east air meets mild moist west air scenario. But isn't it a bit different this time as, certainly on Monday, it looks like cold moist western air (-4/-5 uppers, etc)? This is what I am basing most of my optimism on for these here parts.....

Still a long way out so will probably subject to change! I suppose its an 80's set up which did deliver snow down south on a few occasions especially inland. Interesting times anyway but we're really not in the mix until Sunday on..

ninebeanrows

6z NAE really pumping up that circulation. Some parts of NI look set for a plastering.

Coastal Dublin remains a marginality concern as usual.

maquiladora

Out to 42 hours, looking good for N.I., border counties in the Republic and the Wicklow Mountains. Other areas might be rain/snow/rain without accumulations.

Slashermcguirk

maquiladora wrote: »

Out to 42 hours, looking good for N.I., border counties in the Republic and the Wicklow Mountains. Other areas might be rain/snow/rain without accumulations.

Can see the Wicklow mountains getting an absolute pummelling!! I suspect visitor numbers to glendalough might take a slight hit. Would be amazing to get photos up there in this type of weather event

Big Daddy Cool

I live in quite a hilly part of North east Meath, should i expect much snow from this or will it rain, i'm hoping snow, cos the field next door cant hold much more rain before it comes in around the house.

ninebeanrows

How far north the small circulation moves before retreating south is going to be a real now-cast situation.

A really exciting 48hrs coming up, real knife edge stuff for many. And the bonus being somewhere looks like it will get plastered with 40mm of precip predicted to fall in some parts of the north.

hollster2

come on you beautiful white stuff hurry up weve been waiting since 2010 well i have lol

Pangea

Belfast City Centre at rush hour tomorrow evening (and not a flag in sight)

Iancar29

Very interesting runs this morning indeed. Precip totals for the NE would be about 16mm according to the charts... so if that was in the hill areas being snow that would be roughly 16cms.... thats..... a HALF A FOOT !

OH wait... this aint the ramping thread!

davidsr20

Still doesnt look promising for most of us in the country , still a lot off if buts and maybes, I don't think we will ever see a repeat of 2010, people are getting the hopes up for nothing really unless everyone drives up north.
Was there not more of a chance for us all Sunday night or is that gone?