Lions Tour

lawrencesummers · 14-02-2021 7:58am

Louis Friend wrote: »

Ryan?

As in James Ryan?

Well Hardly Gerry.

Louis Friend · 14-02-2021 10:11am

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Well Hardly Gerry.

Lottie or Bonnie would probably force their way onto the plane with Barry Egan of the Sunday Independent cheering them on.

Buddy Bubs · 14-02-2021 10:16am

I don't think James Ryan is the nailed on test starter people think he is, if tour even happens.
I wouldn't put him on another level to most of our forwards to be honest. Good player but wouldn't consider him massively better than Henderson or Beirne really.
Then you've Itoje, AWJ, Grey to compete with for Lions.

Louis Friend · 14-02-2021 10:19am

Buddy Bubs wrote: »

I don't think James Ryan is the nailed on test starter people think he is, if tour even happens.
I wouldn't put him on another level to most of our forwards to be honest. Good player but wouldn't consider him massively better than Henderson or Beirne really.
Then you've Itoje, AWJ, Grey to compete with for Lions.

The argument that was being made is that he’s not nailed on to make it onto the plane which I think is wrong. The Test XV, we’ll see (if it goes ahead), but James Ryan isn’t missing out, injury permitting.

14-02-2021 10:22am

Ryan a starter for me, Furlong if fit, Henshaw on the bench. Apart from that, any other Irish guys who travel will be squad players for non-test games.

irishbucsfan · 14-02-2021 10:30am

Dav010 wrote: »

Ryan a starter for me, Furlong if fit, Henshaw on the bench. Apart from that, any other Irish guys who travel will be squad players for non-test games.

Assuming Farrell is going to be 10, who would start at 12 over Henshaw?

It's South Africa we'd be playing in a fantasy situation where this tour happens, so the midfield is going to need size. And its Gatland who is picking the side who has always considered that a big priority in midfield.

I'd say the ideal starting midfield for Gatland would be Henshaw and Davies if they're both fit. I think the back 3 is the big open question, Liam Williams is the only cert there that I can see.

Louis Friend · 14-02-2021 10:36am

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Assuming Farrell is going to be 10, who would start at 12 over Henshaw?

It's South Africa we'd be playing in a fantasy situation where this tour happens, so the midfield is going to need size. And its Gatland who is picking the side who has always considered that a big priority in midfield.

I'd say the ideal starting midfield for Gatland would be Henshaw and Davies if they're both fit. I think the back 3 is the big open question, Liam Williams is the only cert there that I can see.

Ah, I’d say Johnny May is a shoo-in.

Louis Rees-Zammit is seriously putting his hand up for the right wing.

Buer · 14-02-2021 11:16am

After watching the opening two rounds, I'm sure of only one thing.

Warren Gatland is praying this tour is cancelled.

Lucas44 · 16-02-2021 9:54pm

My 35 man lions squad

Props
Wyn Jones
Furlong
Mako
Sinkler
Sutherland
Porter

Hookers
George
Cowan dickie
G turner/mcinally

Second rows
Lawes
Itoje
Ryan
Awj - C
Henderson/gray/kruis

Br
Curry
Underhill
Tipuric
Falateu
Earl
Cj

Halfbacks
Davies
Webb
Murray
Farrell
Russel
Biggar

Centres
Manu
Davies
Ringrose
Henshaw or slade

OB
Daly
Watson
May
Williams
Rees zammit

sydthebeat · 16-02-2021 10:42pm

For those talking "dead certs" to travel.

Henshaw is 6/5
James Ryan 1/10
Beirne 3/1
Ringrose 4/7
Furlong 1/5
Porter 13/8
CJ 8/11
Harry Byrne 100/1

Paul Smeenus · 16-02-2021 10:55pm

On current form, Gray should start ahead of Ryan.

RugbyLover123 · 16-02-2021 11:44pm

I’m usually a sucker for a Lions squad prediction but there is little point in even speculating at the moment considering we don’t know if it’ll happen and even if it does it most certainly won’t be in the format we know, so the squad will be a lot smaller. And anyway, we are only 2 rounds in!

theVersatile · 17-02-2021 12:15am

Paul Smeenus wrote: »

On current form, Gray should start ahead of Ryan.

Yeah but Grey is Scottish, so that's a no go.

Lucas44 wrote: »

My 35 man lions squad

Props
Wyn Jones
Furlong
Mako
Sinkler
Sutherland
Porter

Hookers
George
Cowan dickie
G turner/mcinally

Second rows
Lawes
Itoje
Ryan
Awj - C
Henderson/gray/kruis

Br
Curry
Underhill
Tipuric
Falateu
Earl
Cj

Halfbacks
Davies
Webb
Murray
Farrell
Russel
Biggar

Centres
Manu
Davies
Ringrose
Henshaw or slade

OB
Daly
Watson
May
Williams
Rees zammit

Ignoring my Scotland joke above, Hogg has to travel. Playing out of his skin at the moment. He probably gets in ahead of Williams or Daly on this list (more than likely Williams since Daly's long range kicking is so useful). I reckon Billy gets in ahead of Earl too

Downlinz · 17-02-2021 1:24am

No Irish player is nailed on and very few are likely based on current form. I think the most likely are Furlong, Murray, Stander and POM since they were trusted as test players 4 years ago and are still around at a similar level now. Henshaw and Henderson failed to make an impression last time so not sure why they'd be invited back.

Ryan, Stockdale and Ringrose are probably the pick of young players who have emerged since but they're in heavily contested positions so might be more likely on the standby list.

Lucas44 · 17-02-2021 1:42am

theVersatile wrote: »

Yeah but Grey is Scottish, so that's a no go.

Ignoring my Scotland joke above, Hogg has to travel. Playing out of his skin at the moment. He probably gets in ahead of Williams or Daly on this list (more than likely Williams since Daly's long range kicking is so useful). I reckon Billy gets in ahead of Earl too

Completely forgot about Hogg would have him in there but would keep Daly, his kicking at altitude is a serious weapon.. billy could go alright but only if he’s a nailed on started can’t see them bringing 3 specialist 8s, would still keep Earl as he can play all 3

Louis Friend · 17-02-2021 8:38am

Downlinz wrote: »

Ryan, Stockdale and Ringrose are probably the pick of young players who have emerged since but they're in heavily contested positions so might be more likely on the standby list.

How on earth can you say that Ryan isn’t nailed on?

Unless he’s injured, he’s travelling.

Ryan is in every pundit’s Test XV, nevermind the squad.

Someone posted the odds here recently and he’s 1/10 to make the squad!

aloooof · 17-02-2021 12:08pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

How on earth can you say that Ryan isn’t nailed on?

Unless he’s injured, he’s travelling.

Ryan is in every pundit’s Test XV, nevermind the squad.

Someone posted the odds here recently and he’s 1/10 to make the squad!

I fully expect Ryan to travel (if it goes ahead) but that's just not true. An awful lot of pundits had AWJ and Itoje whenever I've seen it discussed.

Louis Friend · 17-02-2021 12:43pm

aloooof wrote: »

I fully expect Ryan to travel (if it goes ahead) but that's just not true. An awful lot of pundits had AWJ and Itoje whenever I've seen it discussed.

The point is that he’s a nailed-on tourist.

A lot of the XVs I’ve seen have Itoje at 6 because of the physical challenge the Boks will present.

bilston · 17-02-2021 3:18pm

As I see it we have 4 guys who really should be nailed on
..about half a dozen who are maybes and two possible bolters.

Likely Tourists
Furlong
Ryan
Henshaw
Ringrose

Possible Tourists
Porter
Henderson
Beirne
Stander
Murray
Sexton
Stockdale

Bolters
Doris
Kelleher

Squidgy Black · 17-02-2021 3:40pm

bilston wrote: »

As I see it we have 4 guys who really should be nailed on
..about half a dozen who are maybes and two possible bolters.

Likely Tourists
Furlong
Ryan
Henshaw
Ringrose

Possible Tourists
Porter
Henderson
Beirne
Stander
Murray
Sexton
Stockdale

Bolters
Doris
Kelleher

I'd probably put Ringrose in the maybe/possibles to be honest, not so much down to performances but moreso Gatland's preference for centres.

ec18 · 17-02-2021 3:54pm

bilston wrote: »

As I see it we have 4 guys who really should be nailed on
..about half a dozen who are maybes and two possible bolters.

Likely Tourists
Furlong
Ryan
Henshaw
Ringrose

Possible Tourists
Porter
Henderson
Beirne
Stander
Murray
Sexton
Stockdale

Bolters
Doris
Kelleher

Likely Tourists
Furlong all dependent on how his return from injury goes obviously
CJ
Henshaw

Possible Tourists
Porter
Beirne
Ryan
Murray
Ringrose

Bolters
Lowe
Aki

I don't think Ryan is nailed on, he's not been performing to his previous level since coming back from the shoulder injury last October. Same with Ringrose and Sexton, I think both miss out

bilston · 17-02-2021 4:06pm

Squidgy Black wrote: »

I'd probably put Ringrose in the maybe/possibles to be honest, not so much down to performances but moreso Gatland's preference for centres.

I don't see a lot out there in the other countries in the centre.

Isn't Davies injured? Has he shown any form in the last 12 months? I like Slade as a player and would bring him, but he doesn't strike me as a typical 13, maybe a footballing 12? I like what I saw of Cameron Redpath against England and could see him as a possible bolter...but IMO there is a strong case for Henshaw and Ringrose to be the test midfield.

But as you say Gatland will have a certain style which might open the door for Bundee actually.

Louis Friend · 17-02-2021 4:11pm

ec18 wrote: »

Likely Tourists
Furlong all dependent on how his return from injury goes obviously
CJ
Henshaw

Possible Tourists
Porter
Beirne
Ryan
Murray
Ringrose

Bolters
Lowe
Aki

I don't think Ryan is nailed on, he's not been performing to his previous level since coming back from the shoulder injury last October. Same with Ringrose and Sexton, I think both miss out

He’s 1/10 to be selected so why not join Betfair and make a fortune laying it?

Buer · 17-02-2021 4:46pm

If a player has appeared on a tour before, they're at a huge advantage over others. For guys who have been on a couple of tours, they're in a better position again.

Someone like Jonathan Davies will travel if he's fit. The options at 13 are not particularly strong. There isn't another 13 (Jonathan Joseph aside) who has been on a Lions tour previously and is contention unless Tuilagi is selected and he might well be given the lack of established options. Payne and Te'o are both gone who were on the last tour so I'd fully expect JD to be on the plane even at 33.

Similarly, don't be surprised to see a guy like Murray or Sexton on the plane; particularly Murray who is a big unit against South Africa. The options for halfback are really weak at the moment. Farrell is going to travel on reputation and past performance. There may be no other English halfback. One or both Scottish halfbacks could travel. Biggar might. Tomos Williams has a shot but he doesn't have history on his side. Gatland could well go ahead with only 2 outhalves as per 2009 and 2013 due to a real lack of stand out options. I wouldn't rule out someone like Henry Slade as a guy who can cover 10 in a pinch for Gatland whilst being a test level centre.

Overall, I'd be very worried if I was Gatland based on what he has seen over the past few months. His star players really haven't been hitting the levels they previously were and the lack of game time for Saracens has been key to that. He's going to have some difficult decisions to make if the tour goes ahead.

Burkie1203 · 23-02-2021 8:43am

4 SA franchises might also have difficulties entering UK unless resident there at the moment too.

https://twitter.com/FoyChris/status/1363988789677408259?s=19

The Inbetween is mine · 23-02-2021 9:06am

I think the English have already lost the run of themselves since BoJo announced his opening of the country inside 4 months...
I'm kind of wondering how the UK government is going to underwrite a game played in Dublin...or is that just their get out and have another game in London....

Sheep Shagger · 23-02-2021 9:28am

Are the Lions so desperate to have a 'tour' to fulfill commercial obligations? Sounds like it.

Must love hardship · 23-02-2021 9:29am

The Inbetween is mine wrote: »

I think the English have already lost the run of themselves since BoJo announced his opening of the country inside 4 months...
I'm kind of wondering how the UK government is going to underwrite a game played in Dublin...or is that just their get out and have another game in London....

Could Play it in Belfast.

The Inbetween is mine · 23-02-2021 9:33am

Must love hardship wrote: »

Could Play it in Belfast.

Not really

Paul Smeenus · 23-02-2021 10:14am

The Inbetween is mine wrote: »

Not really

Why not,?

The Inbetween is mine · 23-02-2021 10:27am

Paul Smeenus wrote: »

Why not,?

Logistics, better to keep everything on the one island , who owns ravenhill..how does it work out with using IRFU facilities....it would be equally as disastrous as Dublin imo

Paul Smeenus · 23-02-2021 10:39am

The Inbetween is mine wrote: »

Logistics, better to keep everything on the one island , who owns ravenhill..how does it work out with using IRFU facilities....it would be equally as disastrous as Dublin imo

No, don't think so. I understand the "one island" logic, but it's ultimately just an arbitrary line.

Those IRFU facilities - Ravenhill - were rebuilt and expanded with money from the UK government. You might think of them as absolutely separate, but the reality is, like 99% percent of life up here, the demarcation isn't that simplistic. Ulster Rugby/the IRFU couldn't operate without an ongoing, working relationship with Stormont and the UK government and as it stands , they operate year in, year out with no real issues.

Boscoirl · 23-02-2021 10:40am

If they move the games up here, there is no point moving the games around unless you can get limited fans in to the grounds, that definately wont happen in Dublin, and Ravenhill is too small. so Edinburgh, Cardiff and London would make sense.

but if there is no fans, have the 3 tests in the same ground, set up the 2 squads in their own camps, in a complete bubble, I would even avoid hotels, look at student accom or holiday villages that have training facilities , limit their interaction/movement for the the series.

RugbyLover123 · 23-02-2021 10:45am

There’s not a hope a test match will be played in Ravenhill! The Lions are desperate for this to go ahead for commercial reasons, they won’t be having 1 test in a stadium the size of Ravenhill.

If it’s full stadiums, which according to the UK will be possible by then. It’ll be Murrayfield, Millenium Stadium and Twickenham.

Also, if anyone is playing midweeks games it’ll be the Boks, not the Lions.

Paul Smeenus · 23-02-2021 10:45am

I don't think there's any point in it at all. How does it benefit SA Rugby if they aren't getting bums on seats? Just let it go.

But if they are talking about a "tour", and they are organising it leading up to the Tests, don't see why we shouldn't play a mid-week game against the Sharks etc in Ravenhill.

ArmaniJeanss · 23-02-2021 12:13pm

It's not a very appetising prospect for the non-test Lions is it?
A month stuck in a Milton Keynes hotel without any real chance of playing a test match. Without getting any of the 'touristy' benefits that you'd get if you were in that situation on a real away tour to SA/Oz/NZ. Why would you bother?
Could see plenty of withdrawals when it becomes clear that you're not close to the matchday XV/bench.

Paul Smeenus · 23-02-2021 12:18pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

It's not a very appetising prospect for the non-test Lions is it?
A month stuck in a Milton Keynes hotel without any real chance of playing a test match. Without getting any of the 'touristy' benefits that you'd get if you were in that situation on a real away tour to SA/Oz/NZ. Why would you bother?
Could see plenty of withdrawals when it becomes clear that you're not close to the matchday XV/bench.

I honestly can't see that it's worth it.

thomond2006 · 23-02-2021 12:38pm

SA and the European unions need the broadcast money and it's far better for the broadcasters to have the games in UK/Ireland than in Perth.

Louis Friend · 23-02-2021 1:45pm

It’s pretty obvious how it’s worth it.

You have a public gagging to go to events.

I have tickets to the mickey mouse warm up game in Edinburgh and was due to go to South Africa.

Face value on those tickets was £150. At, say, Twickenham, Cardiff, and, say, Wembley, they can sell 250,000 tickets at an average of, say, £150. Some tickets might be cheaper but then there’s the corporate stuff.

That’s £38m. At a time when the Unions are goosed moneywise. The South Africans will get a decent slug of that and then there’s the broadcasting revenue plus commercial side.

It makes enormous financial sense.

ArmaniJeanss · 23-02-2021 3:41pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

It’s pretty obvious how it’s worth it.

You have a public gagging to go to events.

I have tickets to the mickey mouse warm up game in Edinburgh and was due to go to South Africa.

Face value on those tickets was £150. At, say, Twickenham, Cardiff, and, say, Wembley, they can sell 250,000 tickets at an average of, say, £150. Some tickets might be cheaper but then there’s the corporate stuff.

That’s £38m. At a time when the Unions are goosed moneywise. The South Africans will get a decent slug of that and then there’s the broadcasting revenue plus commercial side.

It makes enormous financial sense.

Is a combined England/Wales/Scotland/Ireland side actually that attractive a prospect for a home tour that it would sell out in such figures, plus corporate.

The uniqueness of the Lions was always the concept of the 4 nations coming together for an expedition to the southern hemisphere. Surely playing in their own stadia takes that usp away?

Looking at it purely from an Irish pov - I'd like to see Ireland v SA in Dublin, and I'd also like to see SA v The Lions in say Cape Town. But I'd have just marginal interest in seeing The Lions v SA in Dublin.

But I may very well be underestimating the attractiveness of it.

Paul Smeenus · 23-02-2021 3:41pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

It’s pretty obvious how it’s worth it.

You have a public gagging to go to events.

I have tickets to the mickey mouse warm up game in Edinburgh and was due to go to South Africa.

Face value on those tickets was £150. At, say, Twickenham, Cardiff, and, say, Wembley, they can sell 250,000 tickets at an average of, say, £150. Some tickets might be cheaper but then there’s the corporate stuff.

That’s £38m. At a time when the Unions are goosed moneywise. The South Africans will get a decent slug of that and then there’s the broadcasting revenue plus commercial side.

It makes enormous financial sense.

Provided you have crowds.

penybont exile · 23-02-2021 3:58pm

As someone who has been on three Lions tours, albeit some time ago now & enjoyed every minute of it (3 months in total) ...... I would have very little interest in attending even one game of a three test home series.

Money talks however ....... so I'm sure there will be plenty of people who would fork out the big bucks to go see it.

hahashake · 23-02-2021 3:59pm

Can see 10k but not capacity this summer in the UK. But that all depends on the numbers.

Jump_In_Jack · 23-02-2021 5:41pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

It's not a very appetising prospect for the non-test Lions is it?
A month stuck in a Milton Keynes hotel without any real chance of playing a test match. Without getting any of the 'touristy' benefits that you'd get if you were in that situation on a real away tour to SA/Oz/NZ. Why would you bother?
Could see plenty of withdrawals when it becomes clear that you're not close to the matchday XV/bench.

Surely the Lions squad will be reduced down to the bare minimum, maybe 33 at the most.
There surely won't be any mid-week games, unless the four franchises come North to play the Rainbow Cup and stick around for the Lions to play mid-week tests?

ArmaniJeanss · 23-02-2021 6:06pm

Jump_In_Jack wrote: »

Surely the Lions squad will be reduced down to the bare minimum, maybe 33 at the most.
There surely won't be any mid-week games, unless the four franchises come North to play the Rainbow Cup and stick around for the Lions to play mid-week tests?

As someone else said, if there are any midweek games it would surely be for the touring side e.g., South Africa v Glasgow or Leicester etc. That's the tradition.
Though unlikely those Pro14/AP teams will have strong squads available in summer.

Can't see any chance of multiple clubs sides coming from South Africa for midweek games v the Lions. Possible I suppose.

Even with a pared down Lions squad (33 as you suggest) it will still be obvious to some players that they aren't getting a run. So it's a long time to be stuck in a bubble if that's the way they do it. Maybe the UK will be so open by then that it won't have to be a bubble.

Paul Smeenus · 23-02-2021 6:23pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

As someone else said, if there are any midweek games it would surely be for the touring side e.g., South Africa v Glasgow or Leicester etc. That's the tradition.
Though unlikely those Pro14/AP teams will have strong squads available in summer.

Can't see any chance of multiple clubs sides coming from South Africa for midweek games v the Lions. Possible I suppose.

Even with a pared down Lions squad (33 as you suggest) it will still be obvious to some players that they aren't getting a run. So it's a long time to be stuck in a bubble if that's the way they do it. Maybe the UK will be so open by then that it won't have to be a bubble.

The Lions is, by definition, the touring side. That's precisely what a Lions side is. So the whole shebang is without precedent. We'll see if it goes head, but if it does, I'd very, very happily turn out for Ulster vs SA.

Louis Friend · 23-02-2021 9:02pm

These are not normal times though

PTH2009 · 01-03-2021 9:26pm

Jesus there not rushing the decision on what's happening

I'll hold off on buying any Lions merch till a decision is made, might be selling it off or something

Louis Friend · 01-03-2021 10:13pm

PTH2009 wrote: »

Jesus there not rushing the decision on what's happening

I'll hold off on buying any Lions merch till a decision is made, might be selling it off or something

It’s very strange, isn’t it?

Like today’s the 1st of March!

Former Former Former · 01-03-2021 10:41pm

PTH2009 wrote: »

Jesus there not rushing the decision on what's happening

I'll hold off on buying any Lions merch till a decision is made, might be selling it off or something

The only decision that can be made right now is to pull the plug entirely.

If there's something that can be salvaged by holding off for a few more weeks, then it's worth it. No?

Lions Tour

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