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General Election Louth Constituency

1235

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭Salary Negotiator


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Think we can say 4/5 seats are clear even at this early stage 2 SF, 1 FF and 1 FG. It also looks like a definite seat loss for FG with Nash and, a surprise for me, Dearey in with a shout. I'd go for Nash for the last seat.

    I think Nash will struggle, hasn’t polled too well in Drogheda and unlikely to do much better in Dundalk.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Fianna Fail are in trouble. I don't understand why it was assumed that there is a FF seat given the tallies.
    Tallies can swing support levels up and down depending on where they come from. Let's wait for an actual count. 12% might even be OK for them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    I think Nash will struggle, hasn’t polled too well in Drogheda and unlikely to do much better in Dundalk.
    If he comes in anywhere where he was the last time he'll compete. The huge tranche of votes for SF is throwing everything out of whack.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    Final Tally

    1. Imelda Munster - 16,538 (23.61%)
    2. Ruairi O’Murchu - 12,461 (17.79%)
    3. Fergus O’Dowd - 6,402 (9.14%)
    4. Peter Fitzpatrick - 6,009 (8.58%)
    5. Declan Breathnach - 5,697 (8.13%)
    6. Ged Nash - 5,696 (8.13%)
    7. Mark Dearey - 5,409 (7.73%)

    Last two seats are anyone's guess.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 42,602 Mod ✭✭✭✭Lord TSC


    1 vote between Breathnach and Nash.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Final Tally

    1. Imelda Munster - 16,538 (23.61%)
    2. Ruairi O’Murchu - 12,461 (17.79%)
    3. Fergus O’Dowd - 6,402 (9.14%)
    4. Peter Fitzpatrick - 6,009 (8.58%)
    5. Declan Breathnach - 5,697 (8.13%)
    6. Ged Nash - 5,696 (8.13%)
    7. Mark Dearey - 5,409 (7.73%)

    Last two seats are anyone's guess.
    Yep although Breathnach will have his insipid running mate to help him.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭BQQ


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Yep although Breathnach will have his insipid running mate to help him.

    May not help him that much.
    Running mate is from Drogheda and may even transfer more to Nash


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    BQQ wrote: »
    May not help him that much.
    Running mate is from Drogheda and may even transfer more to Nash
    He may not need that much. Even a thousand votes could put him above Fitzpatrick. All those SF transfers will be interesting but a lot of them will just go dead.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,064 ✭✭✭✭event


    Fitzer :|


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Breathnach should make it up from Byrne's transfers and Nash v Fitzer unless SF help Fitzer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 128 ✭✭blinkwink


    This is kind of a basic question but does the first count only take into account 1st preferences?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭Salary Negotiator


    blinkwink wrote: »
    This is kind of a basic question but does the first count only take into account 1st preferences?

    Yes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭10green bottles


    is_that_so wrote: »
    He may not need that much. Even a thousand votes could put him above Fitzpatrick. All those SF transfers will be interesting but a lot of them will just go dead.

    don't know - SF peopl,e were generally saying transfer left after SF 1st pref so can see Nash and Deary picking up a good few.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    don't know - SF people were generally saying transfer left after SF 1st pref so can see Nash and Deary picking up a good few.
    That didn't work for Gino Kenny in Dublin - he got next to none from SF.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Nash did get votes from SF - nearly 1100, now into that 3rd seat spot after 2 counts. Freedom Party got more than O'Dowd in transfers. So currently looking like Nash, O'Dowd and Breathnach to squeeze into that last seat.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,184 ✭✭✭✭Pighead


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Nash did get votes from SF - nearly 1100, now into that 3rd seat spot after 2 counts. Freedom Party got more than O'Dowd in transfers. So currently looking like Nash, O'Dowd and Breathnach to squeeze into that last seat.
    I know you keep on insisting that Fitzer has no chance of getting in but I think it's getting to the stage where Breathnach must be getting extremely worried. Fitzpatrick gained some decent transfers from Munster. Getting very exciting.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,382 ✭✭✭PGE1970


    Breathnach will get a lot of transfers from Byrne when he is eliminated. Nash should also pick up a few and might get some from Sweeney.

    Fitzer will be looking to pick up transfers from McGahon. It is going to go right to the wire.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Pighead wrote: »
    I know you keep on insisting that Fitzer has no chance of getting in but I think it's getting to the stage where Breathnach must be getting extremely worried. Fitzpatrick gained some decent transfers from Munster. Getting very exciting.
    Both FG &FF have running mates with sizeable totals which should see them pass him out and Nash is ahead so it doesn't look good for Fitzer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,184 ✭✭✭✭Pighead


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Both FG &FF have running mates with sizeable totals which should see them pass him out and Nash is ahead so it doesn't look good for Fitzer.
    I have a feeling it's gonna be a lot tighter than you seem to think. Fitzer almost a thousand ahead of Breathnach now. I think he's gonna do pretty well out of John McGahon's transfers. Time will tell though. It's going to be a nailbiter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    Fitzer is picking up sizeable transfers from everywhere. Also, as Pighead said, a lot of John McGahon's transfers will stay in North Louth.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    6th count:

    Fitzpatrick +615 = 7,571
    Nash +217 = 7,190
    O'Dowd +161 = 6,936
    Dearey +244 = 6,680
    Breathnach +101 = 6,124
    McGahon +46 = 4,606
    Byrne +93 = 4,325
    Fergus +353 = 3,028


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 52,222 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    Looking like Fitzer might indeed make it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    Fergus, a PBP candidate from Dundalk being eliminated. It's be interesting to see how many transfers Nash picks up. I reckon less that he would like. A lot of these transfers will go dead as they will be to SF, who already have their candidates elected.


  • Registered Users Posts: 431 ✭✭Vital Transformation


    Fitzer doing well off the Renua transfers, which isn't surprising.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    Fitzer doing well off the Renua transfers, which isn't surprising.

    True, but he picked up more transfers from the SF surpluses. The Democrat reported yesterday that Fitzer is the most transfer friendly candidate (An Lu abu?)

    Breathnach is just picking up crumbs and he must be worried at how many of Byrne's transfers will stay in Drogheda.

    Louth, a FF free zone?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    7th Count - Elimination of PBP candidate.

    Fitzpatrick +630 = 8,201
    Dearey +995 = 7,675
    Nash +355 = 7,545
    O'Dowd +44 = 6,980
    Breathnach +54 = 6,178
    McGahon +36 = 4,642
    Byrne +30 = 4,355


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    True, but he picked up more transfers from the SF surpluses. The Democrat reported yesterday that Fitzer is the most transfer friendly candidate (An Lu abu?)

    Breathnach is just picking up crumbs and he must be worried at how many of Byrne's transfers will stay in Drogheda.

    Louth, a FF free zone?
    If they have run the vote management properly he should get enough.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,184 ✭✭✭✭Pighead


    is_that_so wrote: »
    If they have run the vote management properly he should get enough.
    He'll likely get between 2000 and 2500 transfers from Byrne. This will bring him back into the mix but where do his transfers come from after this count?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    Pighead wrote: »
    He'll likely get between 2000 and 2500 transfers from Byrne. This will bring him back into the mix but where do his transfers come from after this count?

    Bingo. He'll be stranded with no other sources of transfers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Breathnach got 2225 so now 3rd. O'Dowd will jump him on the elimination of McGahon and down to Dearey transfers to decide it. O'Dowd will get in, Breathnach, Fitzer and Nash for the last two seats.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    8th Country - elimination of Byrne (FF)

    Breathnach +2,225 = 8,403
    Nash +844 = 8,389
    Fitzpatrick +178 = 8,379
    Dearey +242 = 7,917
    O'Dowd +505 = 7,485
    McGahon +96 = 4,738


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Breathnach got 2225 so now 3rd. O'Dowd will jump him on the elimination of McGahon and down to Dearey transfers to decide it. O'Dowd will get in, Breathnach, Fitzer and Nash for the last two seats.

    O'Dowd won't get near a quota on McGahon's transfers. It's a dogfight for the last three seats.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    O'Dowd won't get near a quota on McGahon's transfers. It's a dogfight for the last three seats.
    No, but he will be elected.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭Salary Negotiator


    8th Country - elimination of Byrne (FF)

    Breathnach +2,225 = 8,403
    Nash +844 = 8,389
    Fitzpatrick +178 = 8,379
    Dearey +242 = 7,917
    O'Dowd +505 = 7,485
    McGahon +96 = 4,738

    Is Dearey in trouble now? He has to make up 462 on Fitzer to avoid being eliminated this round (O'Dowd gets most of the transfers).


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    Is Dearey in trouble now? He has to make up 462 on Fitzer to avoid being eliminated this round (O'Dowd gets most of the transfers).

    Yes, realistically he has to catch up with Nash on McGahon transfers. Fitzer will get quite a lot (geographical and former FG).

    Not impossible, as both are Dundalk candidates and Nash is Drogheda.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Is Dearey in trouble now? He has to make up 462 on Fitzer to avoid being eliminated this round (O'Dowd gets most of the transfers).
    May well be, it's longest he's been in. Usually he's long gone before now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,382 ✭✭✭PGE1970


    Nash needs Deary to go out after McGahon.

    There are no other Drogheda candidates left to transfer to Nash(as McGahon should bring O'Dowd home) but Green voters may transfer to Labour.

    McGahon voters may transfer to Deary though as they are from the same "parish".


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    is_that_so wrote: »
    No, but he will be elected.
    .

    Dearey transfers will be key, if he is eliminated after McGahon. How many of those will go to FG and to Drogheda? You could be right, but I'd say O'Dowd is sweating.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    PGE1970 wrote: »
    Nash needs Deary to go out after McGahon.

    There are no other Drogheda candidates left to transfer to Nash(as McGahon should bring O'Dowd home) but Green voters may transfer to Labour.

    McGahon voters may transfer to Deary though as they are from the same "parish".

    Green votes are well distributed over the constituency and transfers may not be as geographical as in the case of many of the other candidates.


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  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Is Dearey in trouble now? He has to make up 462 on Fitzer to avoid being eliminated this round (O'Dowd gets most of the transfers).

    Yeah he's probably gone.
    Gonna be mad tight for the last couple of seats. Looks like Fitzer was very transfer-friendly than many thought.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    .

    Dearey transfers will be key, if he is eliminated after McGahon. How many of those will go to FG and to Drogheda? You could be right, but I'd say O'Dowd is sweating.
    Even 2.5K off McGahon puts him well ahead and it'll require 2 out of the bottom three to get 2,000 in transfers to pass him. I'm more curious about the last two seats at this stage. Green voters would be from all over the constituency and I don't think you can apply simple geography to his vote. I do think Nash will get some from Dearey but it will all depend on what's non-transferable.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭Salary Negotiator


    Looks like there's 1 seat for either Nash or Dearey which leaves Breathnach, O'Dowd and Fitzer fighting it out for the other 2.

    Hard to see where Breathnach picks up transfers over O'Dowd or Fitzer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Yeah he's probably gone.
    Gonna be mad tight for the last couple of seats. Looks like Fitzer was very transfer-friendly than many thought.
    I am more surprised his FPVs held up so well.


  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Looks like there's 1 seat for either Nash or Dearey which leaves Breathnach, O'Dowd and Fitzer fighting it out for the other 2.

    Hard to see where Breathnach picks up transfers over O'Dowd or Fitzer.

    Huh? Dearey is likely gone once McGahon's transfers are distributed.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭Salary Negotiator


    Huh? Dearey is likely gone once McGahon's transfers are distributed.

    And I think Nash will be the main beneficiary of his transfers.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    And I think Nash will be the main beneficiary of his transfers.

    Not sure, Green voters in 2020 come from all over the political spectrum.

    Transfers will go all over the place.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    8th Count:

    Fergus O'Dowd (FG) +2,674 = 10,159
    Peter Fitzpatrick (Ind) +609 = 8,988
    Declan Breathnach (FF) +368 = 8,771
    Ged Nash (Labour) +249 = 8,638
    Mark Dearey (Green) +580 = 8,497

    Looks like Nash, O'Dowd, and Fitzpatrick.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭Salary Negotiator


    Not sure, Green voters in 2020 come from all over the political spectrum.

    Transfers will go all over the place.

    We'll see. Dearey is gone, and Nash is in last place now 133 behind Breathnach.

    I'd fancy Nash to close that gap considering the national split of first preference votes favouring the non-FF & FG parties.

    (I've probably jinxed him now)


  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    We'll see. Dearey is gone, and Nash is in last place now 133 behind Breathnach.

    I'd fancy Nash to close that gap considering the national split of first preference votes favouring the non-FF & FG parties.

    (I've probably jinxed him now)

    The Dundalk thing is all I can see saving Breathnach. At the same time I wouldn't have expected many Dearey supporters giving Fitzer their 2nd pref.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭White Horse


    Only 258 of McGahon's 4,738 notes were non transferable. On count 9!

    I've never seen something like that before. The Louth count is crazy.


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