General Election Louth Constituency

Salary Negotiator · 09-02-2020 3:08pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Think we can say 4/5 seats are clear even at this early stage 2 SF, 1 FF and 1 FG. It also looks like a definite seat loss for FG with Nash and, a surprise for me, Dearey in with a shout. I'd go for Nash for the last seat.

I think Nash will struggle, hasn’t polled too well in Drogheda and unlikely to do much better in Dundalk.

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 3:10pm

White Horse wrote: »

Fianna Fail are in trouble. I don't understand why it was assumed that there is a FF seat given the tallies.

Tallies can swing support levels up and down depending on where they come from. Let's wait for an actual count. 12% might even be OK for them.

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 3:12pm

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

I think Nash will struggle, hasn’t polled too well in Drogheda and unlikely to do much better in Dundalk.

If he comes in anywhere where he was the last time he'll compete. The huge tranche of votes for SF is throwing everything out of whack.

White Horse · 09-02-2020 3:59pm

Final Tally

1. Imelda Munster - 16,538 (23.61%)
2. Ruairi O’Murchu - 12,461 (17.79%)
3. Fergus O’Dowd - 6,402 (9.14%)
4. Peter Fitzpatrick - 6,009 (8.58%)
5. Declan Breathnach - 5,697 (8.13%)
6. Ged Nash - 5,696 (8.13%)
7. Mark Dearey - 5,409 (7.73%)

Last two seats are anyone's guess.

Lord TSC · 09-02-2020 4:29pm

1 vote between Breathnach and Nash.

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 4:31pm

White Horse wrote: »

Final Tally

1. Imelda Munster - 16,538 (23.61%)
2. Ruairi O’Murchu - 12,461 (17.79%)
3. Fergus O’Dowd - 6,402 (9.14%)
4. Peter Fitzpatrick - 6,009 (8.58%)
5. Declan Breathnach - 5,697 (8.13%)
6. Ged Nash - 5,696 (8.13%)
7. Mark Dearey - 5,409 (7.73%)

Last two seats are anyone's guess.

Yep although Breathnach will have his insipid running mate to help him.

BQQ · 09-02-2020 4:58pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Yep although Breathnach will have his insipid running mate to help him.

May not help him that much.
Running mate is from Drogheda and may even transfer more to Nash

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 5:02pm

BQQ wrote: »

May not help him that much.
Running mate is from Drogheda and may even transfer more to Nash

He may not need that much. Even a thousand votes could put him above Fitzpatrick. All those SF transfers will be interesting but a lot of them will just go dead.

event · 09-02-2020 8:09pm

Fitzer

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 8:11pm

Breathnach should make it up from Byrne's transfers and Nash v Fitzer unless SF help Fitzer.

blinkwink · 09-02-2020 8:34pm

This is kind of a basic question but does the first count only take into account 1st preferences?

Salary Negotiator · 09-02-2020 8:47pm

blinkwink wrote: »

This is kind of a basic question but does the first count only take into account 1st preferences?

Yes.

10green bottles · 09-02-2020 9:52pm

is_that_so wrote: »

He may not need that much. Even a thousand votes could put him above Fitzpatrick. All those SF transfers will be interesting but a lot of them will just go dead.

don't know - SF peopl,e were generally saying transfer left after SF 1st pref so can see Nash and Deary picking up a good few.

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 10:41pm

10green bottles wrote: »

don't know - SF people were generally saying transfer left after SF 1st pref so can see Nash and Deary picking up a good few.

That didn't work for Gino Kenny in Dublin - he got next to none from SF.

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 11:32pm

Nash did get votes from SF - nearly 1100, now into that 3rd seat spot after 2 counts. Freedom Party got more than O'Dowd in transfers. So currently looking like Nash, O'Dowd and Breathnach to squeeze into that last seat.

Pighead · 09-02-2020 11:50pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Nash did get votes from SF - nearly 1100, now into that 3rd seat spot after 2 counts. Freedom Party got more than O'Dowd in transfers. So currently looking like Nash, O'Dowd and Breathnach to squeeze into that last seat.

I know you keep on insisting that Fitzer has no chance of getting in but I think it's getting to the stage where Breathnach must be getting extremely worried. Fitzpatrick gained some decent transfers from Munster. Getting very exciting.

PGE1970 · 10-02-2020 12:21am

Breathnach will get a lot of transfers from Byrne when he is eliminated. Nash should also pick up a few and might get some from Sweeney.

Fitzer will be looking to pick up transfers from McGahon. It is going to go right to the wire.

is_that_so · 10-02-2020 9:05am

Pighead wrote: »

I know you keep on insisting that Fitzer has no chance of getting in but I think it's getting to the stage where Breathnach must be getting extremely worried. Fitzpatrick gained some decent transfers from Munster. Getting very exciting.

Both FG &FF have running mates with sizeable totals which should see them pass him out and Nash is ahead so it doesn't look good for Fitzer.

Pighead · 10-02-2020 12:16pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Both FG &FF have running mates with sizeable totals which should see them pass him out and Nash is ahead so it doesn't look good for Fitzer.

I have a feeling it's gonna be a lot tighter than you seem to think. Fitzer almost a thousand ahead of Breathnach now. I think he's gonna do pretty well out of John McGahon's transfers. Time will tell though. It's going to be a nailbiter.

White Horse · 10-02-2020 12:20pm

Fitzer is picking up sizeable transfers from everywhere. Also, as Pighead said, a lot of John McGahon's transfers will stay in North Louth.

White Horse · 10-02-2020 1:00pm

6th count:

Fitzpatrick +615 = 7,571
Nash +217 = 7,190
O'Dowd +161 = 6,936
Dearey +244 = 6,680
Breathnach +101 = 6,124
McGahon +46 = 4,606
Byrne +93 = 4,325
Fergus +353 = 3,028

tayto lover · 10-02-2020 1:01pm

Looking like Fitzer might indeed make it.

White Horse · 10-02-2020 1:09pm

Fergus, a PBP candidate from Dundalk being eliminated. It's be interesting to see how many transfers Nash picks up. I reckon less that he would like. A lot of these transfers will go dead as they will be to SF, who already have their candidates elected.

Vital Transformation · 10-02-2020 1:14pm

Fitzer doing well off the Renua transfers, which isn't surprising.

White Horse · 10-02-2020 1:29pm

Vital Transformation wrote: »

Fitzer doing well off the Renua transfers, which isn't surprising.

True, but he picked up more transfers from the SF surpluses. The Democrat reported yesterday that Fitzer is the most transfer friendly candidate (An Lu abu?)

Breathnach is just picking up crumbs and he must be worried at how many of Byrne's transfers will stay in Drogheda.

Louth, a FF free zone?

White Horse · 10-02-2020 2:04pm

7th Count - Elimination of PBP candidate.

Fitzpatrick +630 = 8,201
Dearey +995 = 7,675
Nash +355 = 7,545
O'Dowd +44 = 6,980
Breathnach +54 = 6,178
McGahon +36 = 4,642
Byrne +30 = 4,355

is_that_so · 10-02-2020 2:36pm

White Horse wrote: »

True, but he picked up more transfers from the SF surpluses. The Democrat reported yesterday that Fitzer is the most transfer friendly candidate (An Lu abu?)

Breathnach is just picking up crumbs and he must be worried at how many of Byrne's transfers will stay in Drogheda.

Louth, a FF free zone?

If they have run the vote management properly he should get enough.

Pighead · 10-02-2020 2:45pm

is_that_so wrote: »

If they have run the vote management properly he should get enough.

He'll likely get between 2000 and 2500 transfers from Byrne. This will bring him back into the mix but where do his transfers come from after this count?

White Horse · 10-02-2020 3:03pm

Pighead wrote: »

He'll likely get between 2000 and 2500 transfers from Byrne. This will bring him back into the mix but where do his transfers come from after this count?

Bingo. He'll be stranded with no other sources of transfers.

is_that_so · 10-02-2020 3:22pm

Breathnach got 2225 so now 3rd. O'Dowd will jump him on the elimination of McGahon and down to Dearey transfers to decide it. O'Dowd will get in, Breathnach, Fitzer and Nash for the last two seats.

White Horse · 10-02-2020 3:23pm

8th Country - elimination of Byrne (FF)

Breathnach +2,225 = 8,403
Nash +844 = 8,389
Fitzpatrick +178 = 8,379
Dearey +242 = 7,917
O'Dowd +505 = 7,485
McGahon +96 = 4,738

White Horse · 10-02-2020 3:27pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Breathnach got 2225 so now 3rd. O'Dowd will jump him on the elimination of McGahon and down to Dearey transfers to decide it. O'Dowd will get in, Breathnach, Fitzer and Nash for the last two seats.

O'Dowd won't get near a quota on McGahon's transfers. It's a dogfight for the last three seats.

is_that_so · 10-02-2020 3:28pm

White Horse wrote: »

O'Dowd won't get near a quota on McGahon's transfers. It's a dogfight for the last three seats.

No, but he will be elected.

Salary Negotiator · 10-02-2020 3:29pm

White Horse wrote: »

8th Country - elimination of Byrne (FF)

Breathnach +2,225 = 8,403
Nash +844 = 8,389
Fitzpatrick +178 = 8,379
Dearey +242 = 7,917
O'Dowd +505 = 7,485
McGahon +96 = 4,738

Is Dearey in trouble now? He has to make up 462 on Fitzer to avoid being eliminated this round (O'Dowd gets most of the transfers).

White Horse · 10-02-2020 3:33pm

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

Is Dearey in trouble now? He has to make up 462 on Fitzer to avoid being eliminated this round (O'Dowd gets most of the transfers).

Yes, realistically he has to catch up with Nash on McGahon transfers. Fitzer will get quite a lot (geographical and former FG).

Not impossible, as both are Dundalk candidates and Nash is Drogheda.

is_that_so · 10-02-2020 3:35pm

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

Is Dearey in trouble now? He has to make up 462 on Fitzer to avoid being eliminated this round (O'Dowd gets most of the transfers).

May well be, it's longest he's been in. Usually he's long gone before now.

PGE1970 · 10-02-2020 3:35pm

Nash needs Deary to go out after McGahon.

There are no other Drogheda candidates left to transfer to Nash(as McGahon should bring O'Dowd home) but Green voters may transfer to Labour.

McGahon voters may transfer to Deary though as they are from the same "parish".

White Horse · 10-02-2020 3:36pm

is_that_so wrote: »

No, but he will be elected.

.

Dearey transfers will be key, if he is eliminated after McGahon. How many of those will go to FG and to Drogheda? You could be right, but I'd say O'Dowd is sweating.

White Horse · 10-02-2020 3:37pm

PGE1970 wrote: »

Nash needs Deary to go out after McGahon.

There are no other Drogheda candidates left to transfer to Nash(as McGahon should bring O'Dowd home) but Green voters may transfer to Labour.

McGahon voters may transfer to Deary though as they are from the same "parish".

Green votes are well distributed over the constituency and transfers may not be as geographical as in the case of many of the other candidates.

10-02-2020 3:39pm

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

Is Dearey in trouble now? He has to make up 462 on Fitzer to avoid being eliminated this round (O'Dowd gets most of the transfers).

Yeah he's probably gone.
Gonna be mad tight for the last couple of seats. Looks like Fitzer was very transfer-friendly than many thought.

is_that_so · 10-02-2020 3:45pm

White Horse wrote: »

.

Dearey transfers will be key, if he is eliminated after McGahon. How many of those will go to FG and to Drogheda? You could be right, but I'd say O'Dowd is sweating.

Even 2.5K off McGahon puts him well ahead and it'll require 2 out of the bottom three to get 2,000 in transfers to pass him. I'm more curious about the last two seats at this stage. Green voters would be from all over the constituency and I don't think you can apply simple geography to his vote. I do think Nash will get some from Dearey but it will all depend on what's non-transferable.

Salary Negotiator · 10-02-2020 3:46pm

Looks like there's 1 seat for either Nash or Dearey which leaves Breathnach, O'Dowd and Fitzer fighting it out for the other 2.

Hard to see where Breathnach picks up transfers over O'Dowd or Fitzer.

is_that_so · 10-02-2020 3:49pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah he's probably gone.
Gonna be mad tight for the last couple of seats. Looks like Fitzer was very transfer-friendly than many thought.

I am more surprised his FPVs held up so well.

10-02-2020 4:00pm

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

Looks like there's 1 seat for either Nash or Dearey which leaves Breathnach, O'Dowd and Fitzer fighting it out for the other 2.

Hard to see where Breathnach picks up transfers over O'Dowd or Fitzer.

Huh? Dearey is likely gone once McGahon's transfers are distributed.

Salary Negotiator · 10-02-2020 4:09pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Huh? Dearey is likely gone once McGahon's transfers are distributed.

And I think Nash will be the main beneficiary of his transfers.

White Horse · 10-02-2020 4:16pm

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

And I think Nash will be the main beneficiary of his transfers.

Not sure, Green voters in 2020 come from all over the political spectrum.

Transfers will go all over the place.

White Horse · 10-02-2020 4:18pm

8th Count:

Fergus O'Dowd (FG) +2,674 = 10,159
Peter Fitzpatrick (Ind) +609 = 8,988
Declan Breathnach (FF) +368 = 8,771
Ged Nash (Labour) +249 = 8,638
Mark Dearey (Green) +580 = 8,497

Looks like Nash, O'Dowd, and Fitzpatrick.

Salary Negotiator · 10-02-2020 4:22pm

White Horse wrote: »

Not sure, Green voters in 2020 come from all over the political spectrum.

Transfers will go all over the place.

We'll see. Dearey is gone, and Nash is in last place now 133 behind Breathnach.

I'd fancy Nash to close that gap considering the national split of first preference votes favouring the non-FF & FG parties.

(I've probably jinxed him now)

10-02-2020 4:27pm

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

We'll see. Dearey is gone, and Nash is in last place now 133 behind Breathnach.

I'd fancy Nash to close that gap considering the national split of first preference votes favouring the non-FF & FG parties.

(I've probably jinxed him now)

The Dundalk thing is all I can see saving Breathnach. At the same time I wouldn't have expected many Dearey supporters giving Fitzer their 2nd pref.

White Horse · 10-02-2020 4:29pm

Only 258 of McGahon's 4,738 notes were non transferable. On count 9!

I've never seen something like that before. The Louth count is crazy.

General Election Louth Constituency

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