Property Market 2020

GreeBo · 23-04-2020 2:01pm

lomb wrote: »

All these arguments are false. Property is in many cases cheaper than the rebuild cost. Ergo land has a zero value in many cases.

In my experience the rebuild costs is significantly cheaper than the property cost. Ergo land is very expensive in many cases.

Dwarf.Shortage · 23-04-2020 2:02pm

GreeBo wrote: »

Unless I have missed it, you havent explained how a 20 year mortgage makes houses cheaper.

People can no longer borrow as much stifling the effective demand in parts of the market these people previously inhabited.

It’s not all good though because most of them still need houses and everyone gets compressed into a smaller segment of the market.

If you look at the figures on loss of exemptions for example is going to take a lot of heat out of the 375-450 segment that the 4.5x people were reaching into but they’re just forced back into the already crowded 300-375 space.

eagle eye · 23-04-2020 2:03pm

ittakestwo wrote:

Miltown golf club has the luas line beside it. You could also cycle into town within 10/15 mins. It's a perfect place to put a high density housing similar to Dun Laoghaire golf club.

Why not close down every gym and turn them into apartments, what about soccer stadiums. We could get rid of two from Shels, St Pat's and Bohs and they all play in the one stadium? How about we get rid of Croke Park and move all major gaa matches to somewhere in the middle of the country which makes it easier for everybody to travel?
What about all the Phoenix park, close it and open a new park in ballygobackwards?
Why are you talking about golf courses. It's a good healthy activity with lots of paid up members. It's not costing the state anything. The others I mention are all getting state money in one form or another.

voluntary · 23-04-2020 2:05pm

KaiserSochez wrote: »

I’m in a similar position. Wondering how you went about the negotiation? The vendor on mine was firm on their asking to begin with as I went in 5k less than asking and they came back with a no. That was a week ago. I was planning on seeing how things played out for a few weeks and maybe broaching the subject again...

Unless you're desperate just walks away, keep searching and this one may cormay not come back to you. Desperate people hardly ever get good deals.

JimmyVik · 23-04-2020 2:07pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Why not close down every gym and turn them into apartments, what about soccer stadiums. We could get rid of two from Shels, St Pat's and Bohs and they all play in the one stadium? How about we get rid of Croke Park and move all major gaa matches to somewhere in the middle of the country which makes it easier for everybody to travel?
What about all the Phoenix park, close it and open a new park in ballygobackwards?
Why are you talking about golf courses. It's a good healthy activity with lots of paid up members. It's not costing the state anything. The others I mention are all getting state money in one form or another.

Never argue with a non economist who fancies himself as an economist.
Pissing into the wind there.

Villa05 · 23-04-2020 2:08pm

Personally I think a windfall tax of 70/80% on land designated commercial/residential or industrial as was the case from 2009 up to 2016 as the best option

Anyone now why the current sitting Gov abolished it. Was it just their links with wealthy large farmers or was there something more important

FVP3 · 23-04-2020 2:10pm

old_house wrote: »

...after having diminished the value before by restricting the possible uses. Government doesn't give value to anything, it just extracts value.

Surely you are not advocating a free for all with no land zoning.

And of course government adds value, although any farmer and landowner is welcome to build their own roads and train-lines if they wish and can fund it. An unaccessible land would be worth nothing.

Land has been traded long before "authorities" introduced formal rules and taxes.

Whenever land was traded there was come kind of government or legal system guaranteeing legal ownership. Otherwise land wasn't traded it was taken by the guys with the biggest armies.

I'm not necessarily against measures to make development land more affordable where needed, but that argument doesn't cut it.
Does anyone remember the development land windfall tax we had after the last recession? Did it work? Did it make housing cheaper? There must be data on this somewhere.

It was removed ( by Noonan, natch), but isnt what we I am asking for. This isnt a land tax.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/government-to-axe-80-development-land-windfall-tax-1.1963043

FVP3 · 23-04-2020 2:12pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

Never argue with a non economist who fancies himself as an economist.
Pissing into the wind there.

Who knows who is an economist or not here, or whether we should take every economic theory seriously anyway.

JimmyVik wrote: »

Everybody always wants to tax someone else for their own benefit.
Usually when you see someone spouting about taxing something or someone, you will find that its for their personal gain and of course they wont be the ones taxed with their suggestion.

Best ignored tbh

Obviously people don't want to tax themselves over much, but given that workers pay 51% marginal, they clearly would be interested in other groups stepping up to the plate. And any tax can be debated on its merits or not.

GreeBo · 23-04-2020 2:15pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

People can no longer borrow as much stifling the effective demand in parts of the market these people previously inhabited.

It’s not all good though because most of them still need houses and everyone gets compressed into a smaller segment of the market.

If you look at the figures on loss of exemptions for example is going to take a lot of heat out of the 375-450 segment that the 4.5x people were reaching into but they’re just forced back into the already crowded 300-375 space.

I dont think its good at all, which is why Im questioning it.
There is a lower bound in all this, the price it costs a builder to build a house and still make enough profit for it to be worthwhile.

Making it harder for people to afford a house just pushed more people down into the lower priced houses and so increases demand there.
Those same people how get forced into a lower band have, by definition, more money than those who were already there, so the people with less money are more impacted.

But it was his idea, so I will wait for him to explain...

Donald Trump · 23-04-2020 2:15pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Personally I think a windfall tax of 70/80% on land designated commercial/residential or industrial as was the case from 2009 up to 2016 as the best option

Anyone now why the current sitting Gov abolished it. Was it just their links with wealthy large farmers or was there something more important

I agree a windfall tax could be an option, but for a different reason. ONe argument against it would be that it would be a a disincentive to people from selling their land. And it also doesn't directly help anyway because it would only be when the rezoning happens. It won't prevent a developer buying for 1m an acre and sitting on it until it is at 2m an acre. The real likelihood would be that it would completely slow down the release of land for building. If I have the most suitable land for housing and you are going to tax me at 80 if I realise the capital gain....I might just hold onto it until you reduce that tax! In order for you to incentivise me to use it, you have to have a recurring charge

By and large it is not "wealthy large farmers" who are getting those windfalls. It is developers. Some farmers do get their land away for building but they usually wouldn't be classed as otherwise wealthy. Anyone who gets such a windfall is, by definition, wealthy.

Your granny could have left you what was her cottage and 3 acres that used to be just outside the village of ballygobackward which became surrounded by estates in the last boom and sold for a million quid. Which makes you wealthy. It hardly retrospectively makes you a wealthy farmer with the government in your pocket does it?

fifth · 23-04-2020 2:16pm

KaiserSochez wrote: »

I’m in a similar position. Wondering how you went about the negotiation? The vendor on mine was firm on their asking to begin with as I went in 5k less than asking and they came back with a no. That was a week ago. I was planning on seeing how things played out for a few weeks and maybe broaching the subject again...

So for context - it's a high end new build property and has been sitting for a few months. The last of a small development of 8 homes. I figured if I could negotiate 5-10% off the price it would fall nicely within my budget, with everything going on in the market now I thought maybe I'd chance asking.

I called the EA and asked if the vendor would consider an offer of 8% off the asking. She came back and said no deal, asked if I'd be interested in some other properties, I said no & thank you for enquiring for me. I'd sit out for a while and see how the market goes.

She called me back a couple of days later and asked if I'd be willing to up my offer on the property and I said no, I couldn't stretch to it. So she said she would "go and speak to the builder again"

This time they came back and said they would be willing to deal at a 6% discount and this was acceptable to me. I think the property is exceptional. Whole process took around 7 days with the back and forth.

fliball123 · 23-04-2020 2:22pm

FVP3 wrote: »

You didn't "deal with" anything. There is no landlord tax of 51%, there is an income tax for all.

All your arguments on this thread are badly thought out.

I argued that if someone has a buy to let then they must have a job that pays a good salary as they will have had to get a deposit for 2 houses. Therefore as we know the higher rate of tax kicks in at a very low level in this country it would safe to assume that most landlords are already on the higher rate of tax or close to it and any income garnered by a rental would be or at the very least partially subject tot he higher rate of tax. So there is a tax on rental income. Even if they are not on the higher income bracket their rental income is still income and is subject to tax.

If there was no tax for landlords rental income then why did the govenment create this page on the revenue website?

https://www.revenue.ie/en/property/rental-income/irish-rental-income/how-do-you-calculate-your-taxable-income.aspx

Is this phucking coherent enough for you?

ittakestwo · 23-04-2020 2:24pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Why not close down every gym and turn them into apartments, what about soccer stadiums. We could get rid of two from Shels, St Pat's and Bohs and they all play in the one stadium? How about we get rid of Croke Park and move all major gaa matches to somewhere in the middle of the country which makes it easier for everybody to travel?
What about all the Phoenix park, close it and open a new park in ballygobackwards?
Why are you talking about golf courses. It's a good healthy activity with lots of paid up members. It's not costing the state anything. The others I mention are all getting state money in one form or another.

Because golf clubs take up huge amounts of land. You would fit about a 100 gyms in the space of one golf club. The Avia Stadium and Croker which both would fit into a golf club a few times over hold annual events where 50/80k turn up to, Miltown golf club doesn't. Go there during the weekday and there might be 10 Oap's on it...great use of land 4km from the CC? Visit the old DL golf club, they put in 1000 residential units, also created a public park and have shopping facility. Golf clubs belong out the N11, M1 or M4, not 4km from Dublin CC

GreeBo · 23-04-2020 2:24pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

Miltown golf club has the luas line beside it. You could also cycle into town within 10/15 mins. It's a perfect place to put a high density housing similar to Dun Laoghaire golf club.

They would be expensive given the location but it would have an effect on the whole market as the people buying/living there would not have to go somewhere else.

Ever at the end of a very long que for a supermarket checkout, then they open another till. Will only the people at the top of the que benefit from the extra till being opened?

You mean the above capacity green line that is about to have cherrywood lupmed into it? That luas?

I gave some example prices from the Dun Laoghaire development, arguably Milltown is a better location, so prices will be even higher. The people buy in this development for, lets say 500K are were looking at other developments for 500K, they didnt go from a 250K buyer to a 500K one.

It doesnt help me queueing in Lidl if BT open another till, no.

ittakestwo · 23-04-2020 2:29pm

GreeBo wrote: »

You mean the above capacity green line that is about to have cherrywood lupmed into it? That luas?

I gave some example prices from the Dun Laoghaire development, arguably Milltown is a better location, so prices will be even higher. The people buy in this development for, lets say 500K are were looking at other developments for 500K, they didnt go from a 250K buyer to a 500K one.

It doesnt help me queueing in Lidl if BT open another till, no.

I don't know what your point is. If they build on any land it will increase supply and have a knock on effect on the whole market. No?

kevinc565 · 23-04-2020 2:42pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Personally I think a windfall tax of 70/80% on land designated commercial/residential or industrial as was the case from 2009 up to 2016 as the best option

Anyone now why the current sitting Gov abolished it. Was it just their links with wealthy large farmers or was there something more important

Another problem is the constant changes in the law. Why build and suffer a 70%(?) windfall tax when you know you can wait for the next government in 4-5 year who will change it.

This is one reason why i support the current CB mortgage rules, when they don't flip flop every year they create certainty.

GreeBo · 23-04-2020 2:47pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

I don't know what your point is. If they build on any land it will increase supply and have a knock on effect on the whole market. No?

My point is that building more expensive, high end houses doesnt do much for the people who cany find a 250K house to buy.

GreeBo · 23-04-2020 2:57pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

Because golf clubs take up huge amounts of land. You would fit about a 100 gyms in the space of one golf club. The Avia Stadium and Croker which both would fit into a golf club a few times over hold annual events where 50/80k turn up to, Miltown golf club doesn't. Go there during the weekday and there might be 10 Oap's on it...great use of land 4km from the CC? Visit the old DL golf club, they put in 1000 residential units, also created a public park and have shopping facility. Golf clubs belong out the N11, M1 or M4, not 4km from Dublin CC

again I'll ask, how much do you think units are going to cost on a site in Milltown, given the cost of the Dun Laoghaire ones?

Your argument is that this is prime real estate, just 4km from the city...so you reckon they are going to build a couple of hundred 2 bed apartments for 200K?
Or do you think they are going to build modern "village" with luxury houses and some apartments and have units from 500K well into the millions?

and your nonsense points about 10 OAPS are nonsense and dont help your argument.

eagle eye · 23-04-2020 3:00pm

ittakestwo wrote:

Because golf clubs take up huge amounts of land. You would fit about a 100 gyms in the space of one golf club. The Avia Stadium and Croker which both would fit into a golf club a few times over hold annual events where 50/80k turn up to, Miltown golf club doesn't. Go there during the weekday and there might be 10 Oap's on it...great use of land 4km from the CC? Visit the old DL golf club, they put in 1000 residential units, also created a public park and have shopping facility. Golf clubs belong out the N11, M1 or M4, not 4km from Dublin CC

You never mentioned the Phoenix park, you'd easily fit 20 golf courses in there.

ittakestwo · 23-04-2020 3:01pm

GreeBo wrote: »

My point is that building more expensive, high end houses doesnt do much for the people who cany find a 250K house to buy.

Of course it will. People who buy these new houses will leave the market meaning less demand for all other property on the market. There would be a trickle down affect on the price of a €250k house if they started building a load of €500k houses.

ittakestwo · 23-04-2020 3:02pm

eagle eye wrote: »

You never mentioned the Phoenix park, you'd easily fit 20 golf courses in there.

Thats a public space.... I am not a trespasser if I walk/run through the Phonix Park

JimmyVik · 23-04-2020 3:05pm

kevinc565 wrote: »

Another problem is the constant changes in the law. Why build and suffer a 70%(?) windfall tax when you know you can wait for the next government in 4-5 year who will change it.

This is one reason why i support the current CB mortgage rules, when they don't flip flop every year they create certainty.

Agreed

Never underestimate certainty. Everything needs certainty to thrive. Thats why landlords have been leaving the market for some time now. Watch what happens pension contributions if FG touch pensions again. Certainty is paramount.

JimmyVik · 23-04-2020 3:07pm

eagle eye wrote: »

You never mentioned the Phoenix park, you'd easily fit 20 golf courses in there.

How many apartments would you get in a high rise in Stephens green.

JimmyVik · 23-04-2020 3:09pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

Of course it will. People who buy these new houses will leave the market meaning less demand for all other property on the market. There would be a trickle down affect on the price of a €250k house if they started building a load of €500k houses.

Im thinking house building is going to be severely cut back. I may be wrong, but i dont see how it wont be.

ittakestwo · 23-04-2020 3:12pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

How many apartments would you get in a high rise in Stephens green.

Green public space in the center of the city...no problem with it. At any given during the weekday you will have a few hundred people walking through it.

JimmyVik · 23-04-2020 3:13pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

Green public space in the center of the city...no problem with it. At any given during the weekday you will have a few hundred people walking through it.

What about fitzwillian square then? Or Dartmouth square.
Might as well tax the builders a bit more and make them put the parks back on top of the buildings with the proceeds.
Jaysus we have the green spaces in Dublin sorted along with housing.
We are making great progress here.
Id tax people for walking near a green space too. Better yet, CPO their gardens, and their parents gardens. Or Eamonn Ryans windowsill.
We wont stop til we CPO them all. Or tax them for having it. The bare faced cheek of them.

Me and you would make a great team.

Just kidding

Dwarf.Shortage · 23-04-2020 3:21pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

Thats a public space.... I am not a trespasser if I walk/run through the Phonix Park

Pay a green fee in Milltown you're not trespassing they're happy to have you I'm sure. Just because it isn't free doesn't mean it shouldn't be there.

ittakestwo · 23-04-2020 3:23pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

What about fitzwillian square then? Or Dartmouth square.

To get an idea of my point go to google satellite and look at the size of those parks which are being used as green areas and compare it to the area of golf club.

Sure the public park they left over in the old DL golf club after they build a 1000 residential units is bigger than both Fitzwilliam and Dartmouth park. And funny enough as a local from there the only time I have been on the grounds of the old DL golf club was to use the new public park and the Tesco they built there.

Dwarf.Shortage · 23-04-2020 3:26pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

To get an idea of my point go to google satellite and look at the size of those parks which are being used as green areas and compare it to the area of golf club.

Sure the public park they left over in the old DL golf club after they build a 1000 residential units is bigger than both Fitzwilliam and Dartmouth park. And funny enough as a local from there the only time I have been on the grounds of the old DL golf club was to use the new public park and the Tesco they built there.

So if someone is from Malahide but has never used the tennis courts they should be torn down? If you're from Whitehall and don't go near the GAA St. Vincents GAA Club should be CPO'd for the greater good and apartments built on it?

You not using it doesn't mean it should be repurposed.

23-04-2020 3:28pm

As far as I am aware, Dun Laoghaire golf club was bought by a developer for a massive amount of money, he also included a new site for them to move to.
So, nothing to do with the local council or government, just a private business deal.

mcbert · 23-04-2020 3:33pm

So the 2020 Property Market. What about that then eh?

GreeBo · 23-04-2020 3:35pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

Of course it will. People who buy these new houses will leave the market meaning less demand for all other property on the market. There would be a trickle down affect on the price of a €250k house if they started building a load of €500k houses.

They leave the 500K market, they dont do squat for the 250K market.
Unless you reckon people who want to buy a 500K house in milltown, instead just go to a 250K in jobstown?

ittakestwo · 23-04-2020 3:36pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

So if someone is from Malahide but has never used the tennis courts they should be torn down? If you're from Whitehall and don't go near the GAA St. Vincents GAA Club should be CPO'd for the greater good and apartments built on it?

You not using it doesn't mean it should be repurposed.

The argument is being missed, Golf clubs take up HUGE amounts of land. They are not comparable to tennis clubs or gyms in the amount of land they take up.

They are also private, you cant go onto them unless you are a member. Given the huge amount of land they take up and the lack of public access to this huge amount of land it's obvious they are better off away from the city. Having Elm Pak, Miltown and Clontarf GP's all of which are 4km from the CC is such an inefficient use of urban land.

GreeBo · 23-04-2020 3:38pm

bubblypop wrote: »

As far as I am aware, Dun Laoghaire golf club was bought by a developer for a massive amount of money, he also included a new site for them to move to.
So, nothing to do with the local council or government, just a private business deal.

Shhhh dont ruin it with facts.

ittakestwo · 23-04-2020 3:39pm

bubblypop wrote: »

As far as I am aware, Dun Laoghaire golf club was bought by a developer for a massive amount of money, he also included a new site for them to move to.
So, nothing to do with the local council or government, just a private business deal.

The local council had to rezone the land residential for it all to happen. It was a really good move on behalf of DLRcoco, pity other councils aren't following.

23-04-2020 3:41pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

The local council had to rezone the land residential for it all to happen. It was a really good move on behalf of DLRcoco, pity other councils aren't following.

Sure that was never going to be an issue. It happened because a private developer could make lots of money by doing it.
Dun Laoghaire Rathdown were hardly going to refuse to rezone?

FVP3 · 23-04-2020 3:43pm

fliball123 wrote: »

I argued that if someone has a buy to let then they must have a job that pays a good salary as they will have had to get a deposit for 2 houses.

There are other ways of owning property, its often inherited, or bought for cash ( which doesn't mean the person has otherwise a big income).

Plenty of landlords dont pay 51% so there isn't a landlord tax of 51%.

GreeBo · 23-04-2020 3:43pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

The local council had to rezone the land residential for it all to happen. It was a really good move on behalf of DLRcoco, pity other councils aren't following.

The council may have rezoned it, but the developer paid through the nose for it, and each unit owner is paying a significant amount of money to live there.

You are still ignoring the cost of units that are built by private developers on expensive land such as a golf club.

Also, the land was bought in 2002.....FOURTEEN years later units became available to purchase.

Dwarf.Shortage · 23-04-2020 3:49pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

The argument is being missed, Golf clubs take up HUGE amounts of land. They are not comparable to tennis clubs or gyms in the amount of land they take up.

They are also private, you cant go onto them unless you are a member. Given the huge amount of land they take up and the lack of public access to this huge amount of land it's obvious they are better off away from the city. Having Elm Pak, Miltown and Clontarf GP's all of which are 4km from the CC is such an inefficient use of urban land.

As I said in a previous post this is completely untrue, there are no truly private golf clubs in Ireland. From Milltown all the way up to Adare Manor a member of the public can play them having paid the requisite green fee. The only reason walking on them is trespassing is if you are not a member and/or haven't paid a green fee you're not insured if struck by a golf ball.

They are no different to the Botanic Gardens or any other space that requires a lot of maintenance and hence has to charge for their use. This idea that someone from Milltown who's not a member cannot use the golf course is completely incorrect.

GreeBo · 23-04-2020 3:52pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

They are no different to the Botanic Gardens or any other space that requires a lot of maintenance and hence has to charge for their use.

Or Phoenix park that the taxpayer pays for...

Claw Hammer · 23-04-2020 4:09pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

As I said in a previous post this is completely untrue, there are no truly private golf clubs in Ireland. From Milltown all the way up to Adare Manor a member of the public can play them having paid the requisite green fee. The only reason walking on them is trespassing is if you are not a member and/or haven't paid a green fee you're not insured if struck by a golf ball.

They are no different to the Botanic Gardens or any other space that requires a lot of maintenance and hence has to charge for their use. This idea that someone from Milltown who's not a member cannot use the golf course is completely incorrect.

There is no right to insist on paying a green fee. The members retain the right to refuse to admit anyone should they so desire.

Dwarf.Shortage · 23-04-2020 4:11pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There is no right to insist on paying a green fee. The members retain the right to refuse to admit anyone should they so desire.

Doesn't happen in practice though does it.

You can book a tee time online and rock up with your clubs and tee off, anyone with a debit card can play the golf course for €40/€50 it's publicly available.

ittakestwo · 23-04-2020 4:13pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

This idea that someone from Milltown who's not a member cannot use the golf course is completely incorrect.

Attached is a sign on the Miltown gate

Summer2020 · 23-04-2020 4:14pm

People thinking they’ll pick up a bargain are going to be disappointed I think. Two out of three properties I was bidding on previously have been taken down off the market. They can afford to sit it out and wait a few years rather than accept low ball offers of asking -10% or so.

Graham · 23-04-2020 4:19pm

Mod Note

Woohooo, a post discussing the property market

Ursabear · 23-04-2020 4:46pm

Thank you Graham! On newstalk today they were having a discussion about 75% more rental units added to the market, I know this has been discussed already in terms of air BnB but it really shows how affecting it was. I do hope that it will be better regulated should it ever return. I thought the interview with Rory Hearne was interesting https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/highlights-from-lunchtime-live/75-increase-number-homes-rent-dublin-city

GreeBo · 23-04-2020 4:52pm

Personally I think there are enough people with money and REITs to eat up a large percentage of discount properties which will prevent the major drop people are expecting.

Maitguel · 23-04-2020 4:55pm

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

Woohooo, a post discussing the property market

Paddy Power should do a fan denial of this thread!

JP100 · 23-04-2020 5:19pm

I'd say they'll be an initial backlog of house builds that will need to be finished and cleared first when things start to somewhat get back to normal. After that for anyone hoping to build and approaching builders, they should be trying to drive a hard bargain with such builders. I just can't see builders been out the door with work for the foreseeable future.

Graham · 23-04-2020 5:20pm

Mod Note

Some off topic posts deleted.

Feel free to start a separate thread discussing the redevelopment of golf courses.

Property Market 2020

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