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2018 Hurricane Season
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24-05-2018 11:59pm#1The season kicks off on June 1st and goes until November 30th. The NHC have forecast this year's to be near to above normal (35% chance of above normal, 40% chance of near normal, 25% chance of below normal).
Sea-surface temperatures (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC) are around normal at the moment.
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Was surprised to see Alberto actually managed to cause $50m + worth of damage, if you believe Wikipedia.
Two new areas of interest popping up today, other than after a brief low chance dissapeared a few days ago the Atlantic has been eerily quiet.
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Tropical Depression 3 now forecast to achieve near or Hurricane strength winds in the next few days. Will be interesting on our part to see how it might influence our weather around next weekend , if any. Nothing big showing up at present and could well track up towards Greenland or Iceland but these remnants can pump a bit of energy into the atmosphere and carry a lot of moisture with them. The models can find it hard to compute their influence sometimes sending out mixed signals until they lock on better and get to grips with them . Could easily turn out to be quite benign. Interesting nonetheless.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 070853
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018
A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes at 0136 UTC and 0216 UTC
revealed the the depression has not yet strengthened, and its
circulation remains very broad. Although the larger-scale
circulation of the cyclone is well-defined, it lacks an inner core,
and the center of circulation consists of a wide area of light
winds. The initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based primarily
on the ASCAT data, and this is also supported by the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB.
While the cyclone was nearly devoid of deep convection for several
hours late last night and early this morning, a broken convective
band has since developed to the south of the low-level center. This
could indicate that the depression is beginning to become better
organized and will begin to slowly strengthen. Warm SSTs will
likely allow the depression to gradually strengthen through the next
3 to 4 days, however moderate shear and the lack of an existing
inner-core will likely limit the intensification rate. The
intensity guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday,
and now most of the models show the cyclone nearing or reaching
hurricane strength. No change has been made to the NHC intensity
forecast, which is now near the middle of the guidance and very
close to HCCA throughout the forecast.
Nighttime Proxy-Vis imagery has been very helpful in tracking the
depression this morning, which has slowed down and is now estimated
to be moving north-northwestward or 345/4 kt. For the first 48 h,
the track models remain in fairly good agreement that the cyclone
will meander off the coast of the Carolinas, as it becomes trapped
in the light steering flow between a cold front passing to the north
and the subtropical ridge to the east. Beyond that time, there has
been a significant change in the track models, all of which now
depict a much faster northeastward motion beginning on Tuesday as
the cyclone recurves ahead of a mid-level trough approaching from
the northwest. Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to
show a faster motion at day 4 and 5, it is now much slower than all
of the global models in an effort to maintain continuity from our
earlier forecasts. If this trend continues, larger changes will
need to be made to the track forecast in future advisories.
Most of the guidance continues to suggest that the
tropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will occur
primarily to the east of the cyclone's center well away from the
U.S. coast. Therefore, no watches or warnings are required for the
U.S coast at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina
coast should monitor the progress of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 33.2N 74.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 33.6N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 33.8N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 33.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 34.0N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 34.5N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 37.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 41.0N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH0 -
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Tropical Storm Chris becomes the third named storm of the season and set to become a Hurricane over the next 72hrs as it passes over warm sst's. The NHC noting :
The track guidance has once again made a large shift with the latest
forecast cycle. While Chris is generally expected to continue to
meander off the coast of the Carolinas for the next couple of days
before accelerating to the northeast ahead of a deep-layer trough
approaching from the northwest, the timing of this acceleration is
highly uncertain. Nearly all of the dynamical models have now
shifted to the south and west of their previous forecasts throughout
most of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction, but now lies on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope, and shows a faster motion than most of the
models. Given the large run-to-run inconsistency of the guidance
over the past 24 hours, I would prefer to wait to make a more
significant change to the forecast until a more clear pattern
emerges.
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Not posing a risk to land at this stage, set to meander off the coasts for a few days before tracking towards the NE by about Tues. Swells and gales on coasts up along the Eastern states .
Will be interesting to see it's track later in the week and how it might influence our weather.
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Given the very hot weather that we have had for a few weeks now will that fuel any storm that comes close to Ireland in the Months ahead making them more powerful, the sea is bound to be warmer than normal with all the sunshine we had, any thoughts on this.
It's more the "cold blob" of sea surface temperature anomalies to the south of Greenland that would cause an enhancement in storm development as them kind of SST anomalies are more conducive to storms - just look at 2015.
The National Hurricane Center latest update for Chris now show it travelling near the west of Ireland by Sunday afternoon.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Any one got any idea what the likely wind speeds in something like that would be?
GFS 12Z taking it away from our shores and not looking windy on this run , bit to go yet though to know for certain but on the lead up to this over the last number of days it has never looked that windy. ECM the same keeping it away from our shores yet a different track. ( ECM 12Z coming out shortly will see the latest )
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Some debate coming out of America on will it reach Hurricane status.
https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1016719830655922181
https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1016729054152667136
The Jet not looking particularly strong going into the weekend so not giving the remnants of Chris a bit of oomph to keep up the wind speeds.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/10167499713353318400 -
Officially Hurricane Chris now making it the second Hurricane of the season. Set to be a short lived Hurricane even after intensifying over the next 12 hrs or so. Big difference in the water temp off Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
The models showing the remnants getting a bit closer to Ireland , winds not too strong at present ( showing up to 50 60 km/h along the coasts atm )
NHC
Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Chris has finally attained hurricane status, making it the
second hurricane thus far this season, which is ahead of climatology
by more than six weeks. The aircraft found 850-mb flight-level winds
of 88 kt in the southeastern quadrant, along with SFMR winds of
73-77 kt. Dropsondes in the the same area found equivalent surface
winds of 73-74 kt, and the most recent central pressure observed was
980 mb. Furthermore, satellite intensity estimates are a consensus
T4.5/77 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, based on a well-defined
20-nmi-diameter clear eye. These data support a solid 75-kt advisory
intensity.
The initial motion is a slightly faster 050/09 kt. Chris is north of
a narrow subtropical ridge, and water vapor imagery also indicates
that Chris is beginning to feel the influence of a digging trough
over the northeastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic states. The combination
of these two features should gradually accelerate the hurricane
northeastward at a faster forward speed through 96 hours. By the
time Chris passes well southeast of Nova Scotia in 36 hours or so,
the hurricane will be moving at a forward speed of more than 25 kt.
On the new forecast track, Chris is still expected to move near or
over southeastern Newfoundland in about 48-60 hours. The latest
model guidance has a much larger spread in both cross-track and
along-track motions. To smooth out these differences, the new
forecast track is down the middle of the tighter HCCA, FSSE, and
TVCN consensus model suite.
Now that Chris has moved away from the cold upwelling region, some
additional intensification is forecast for the next 12 hours or so
due to 27-28 deg C SSTs beneath the cyclone and the well-established
current outflow pattern that is expected to persist during that
time. Slow weakening should begin shortly after Chris peaks in
intensity due to the cyclone moving over cooler waters, creating
some modest upwelling as a result. By 36 hours, Chris will have
moved well north of the Gulfstream and be moving over SSTs colder
than 15 deg C. The combination of the much colder water and
southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt should induce a
rapid transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity
forecast is above the intensity guidance through 12 hours, and then
shows weakening after that similar to the LGEM and IVCN models.
Now that Chris is moving away from the United States, the
previously scheduled aircraft mission for 11/0600 UTC has been
canceled.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 33.7N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 34.9N 70.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 37.1N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 40.5N 62.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 44.7N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 51.0N 41.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z 55.2N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z 59.0N 12.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart0 -
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A shift more towards Iceland on the latest guidance , well away from Ireland. Interesting reading from the NHC how it passes over an ocean thermal ridge of 28C around now associated with the gulf Stream maintaining strength and within 24 hrs will be passing over SST's colder than 12C coupled with a strong SW'ly wind shear which will bring about rapid weakening and transition to extra tropical cyclone.
Worth keeping an eye on the remnants of Beryl which has a chance of cyclone development in the days ahead.
NHC
1. The remnants of Beryl continue to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Bahamas
and extending northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few
hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but
conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week
and over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly northward
and northeastward over the western Atlantic. Additional information
on this disturbance can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Forecaster Stewart0 -
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So it looks like Ernesto largely missed most of the country and that associated rain was fairly short lived - storm seems to have not only ended up further North, but accelerated far more quickly than previously expected, robbing it of enough time to give us a proper deluge. From what I can see on satellite, the North and Northwest got a decent blast from the rain but it's already beginning to clear away, far from the nightlong torrent which was being forecast just a few days ago by most forecasting sites.
The question is though, with Hurricane Season not even close to peaking yet, will we get any more remnants this year? Or even a repeat of last year's bizarre Ophelia scenario, with a hurricane hitting us only just barely after becoming post-tropical?
Personally I'd say we're somewhat unlikely to see too much tropical action in our neck of the woods this year. The Atlantic is a very different place than it was last year - temperatures in the East Pacific are far higher compared with 2017's La Nina conditions and this is causing rampant activity off the American West Coast, with consequent upper outflow driving up wind shear across much of the tropical Atlantic. Furthermore, sea surface temperatures are actually below average this year for the first time in a while - this apparently caused by the incredible NAO and freakishly strong Azores High throughout the early summer, causing stronger ocean currents than usual and thus carrying heat away from the tropics without giving it a chance to concentrate and pool in specific areas as it did last year.
It seems to me that you need a hyperactive season in order to have any real chance of unusual Northeast Atlantic tropical systems - 2005 and 2017, for instance, had Hurricane Vince and Hurricane Ophelia respectively. Remnants which have traversed the Atlantic after riding around the edge of the Azores High are far less likely to retain much of their strength for various reasons - and with fewer storms expected to form in the Atlantic this year, the chances of oddballs forming seems even lower than usual.
What does anyone else think?
Unfortunately I will add one prediction - we could see an incredibly stormy Winter this year with a lot of named storms. I don't know for sure if there's a correlation, but it seems to me that El Nino years, as this is shaping up to be, tend to have stronger Polar Vortex activity (and thus more intense lows with stormy, but irritatingly mild, conditions
) in Winter than neutral or La Nina years. But I'd love if someone could refute this theory 0 -
hatrickpatrick wrote: »Unfortunately I will add one prediction - we could see an incredibly stormy Winter this year with a lot of named storms. I don't know for sure if there's a correlation, but it seems to me that El Nino years, as this is shaping up to be, tend to have stronger Polar Vortex activity (and thus more intense lows with stormy, but irritatingly mild, conditions ) in Winter than neutral or La Nina years. But I'd love if someone could refute this theory
El Nino years tend to be the opposite of La Nina, colder weather later in the Winter whereas La Nina is colder weather earlier in the Winter. This is just an average and there are many deviations. For example, for El Nino, there was 2009-10, 1939-40, 1887-88. Or La Nina, 2017-18.... February was the coldest of the Winter when it was forecasted to be the mildest month, primarily down to La Nina but in the end it wasn't. Another La Nina example being 1954-55, December was the mildest and wettest, February was very cold.
Thing is, ocean is not really showing its hand in El Nino state: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057875863
Moderate El Nino, El Nino Modoki, ENSO neutral or weak La Nina are the safest bets historically for a cold and snowy Winter.
I think ENSO will be the least of our problems this Winter unlike something such as the Atlantic sea surface temperatures which are a current issue.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Potential tropical cyclone 6 is forecast to become a Hurricane in the coming days.
nhc discussion...
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/11. The trade winds
on the south side of the subtropical ridge should steer the system
west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the
next 3-4 days, passing near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands
Friday or Friday night. Near the end of the forecast period, a
turn toward the northwest is forecast as the system approaches a
weakness in the ridge. The new track forecast is again little
changed from the previous forecast and lies near the various
consensus models. It should be noted that some adjustments to the
early parts of the forecast track may occur until the center
becomes better defined.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0300Z 13.2N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/1200Z 13.7N 22.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 01/0000Z 14.5N 24.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 15.3N 27.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 16.0N 30.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.5N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 19.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 21.5N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven0 -
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ECM 0Z raised a few eyebrows in the US with a more W'ly route for now Tropical Storm Florence. Early days. GFS way out in FI keeping it on a NW'ly track and veering it back out to sea with it's remnants heading towards Europe, long long way off as may not even cross the Atlantic.
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Florence set to remain a Tropical Storm for a number of days before a chance of becoming a Hurricane, if it does.
https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1035605047034490881
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1035855372337082368
https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/10357800534964101130 -
Lots of speculation from commentators on if Florence is going to strengthen and what track it is going to take. Looks to make slow progress for a number of days as it strengthens a bit but set to weaken around +96hr. Suggestions that it may become a major Hurricane but others saying not. Good to put up latest maps and tracks so can look back and see how the models fared. Could end up in this part of the Atlantic in a couple of weeks or just about anywhere for that manner. Seems to be a consensus that it will veer to the WNW initially .
NHCBy day 3, a
west-northwest to northwest motion is forecast to begin, as the
aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough influences the track of
the tropical storm. While all of the global models show this
general scenario, the extent to which Florence will gain latitude is
less certain. A stronger Florence will likely turn more toward the
northwest, while a weaker, shallower system should continue on a
more westward to west-northwestward track. For now, the NHC
forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to
all of the consensus models. This track is also generally in line
with the official intensity forecast, which shows a somewhat weaker
system than the GFS (on the north side of the guidance), but a
stronger one than the ECMWF (on the south side).
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The ECM keeping Florence on course for the US ( North Carolina the last couple of runs ). The NHC not getting too ahead of itself at this stage with such a wide spread of tracks from the models. GFS suite and HWRF taking it more NW so the NHC keeping a central track to these . Little change in strength in the next few days but should strengthen when it gets over warmer SST's in 4 or 5 days.
Edit: By the way the GFS showing the remnants of the system heading towards Greenland on this run, just shows you the spread of tracks being churned out being so far out. Interesting to see such a difference between the main models .
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The ECM is showing a cyclone of tropical origin, but not developing a closed circulation until it's North of the Azores, near us.
If this storm were to remain a mere disturbance and not develop as a proper cyclone until it reached the position indicated by this chart, would it still be named by the NHC as a subtropical storm, or would it now fall under the purview of ourselves and the UK to name it as part of the 2018-19 European Windstorm Season?
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Tropical Storm Gordon forecast to become a Hurricane just before landfall as it passes over SST's of 30C .
So surge warnings in effect, rainfall warning of up to 8 inches ( southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana) and winds of 65 kts / 75mph as the then forecast Hurricane makes landfall.
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ECM and GFS now similar track at +240hrs ,looks like potential to become a major Hurricane. GFS crazy deep at 930 hPa, GFS sends it up into Greenland on this run but has been chopping and changing track. Now looking more like missing the US coastline.
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Hurricane Florence did in fact intensify further and is now forecast to remain a Hurricane through the next five days. There's still uncertainty about where it will go after five days, go further West towards the US, go North and eventually back into the Atlantic includng possibly go over Bermuda and then onwards.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1037257908663332864
How much stronger will it get now that it is already a category 2 Hurricane, though some weakening is forecast, it can regain strength over warmer waters later on.
Minimum entral pressure 976mb. Max sustained winds 165km/h 105mph. Forward speed 20km/h 13mph.
Gordon made landfall probably just under Hurricane strength with a lot of rain on mostly the Eastern side of its track.
Watch out for one or two more potentials developing in the Atlantic off the West coast of Africa.0 -
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UKMET is a real outlier right now with an almost due-westward track - but as one of the top three models, it surely can't be ignored. ECM isn't on this particular spaghetti graphic - does anyone know of a non paywalled source for ECM spaghetti models?
EDIT: Not a spaghetti model, but the ECM is now going for the UKMET solution. Long way out, but big trouble for the southeastern US if this verifies.
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