Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Hubertj · 03-09-2020 10:31am

schmittel wrote: »

Spot the difference...

and

ah, Sky, that explains it

PropQueries · 03-09-2020 10:39am

gourcuff wrote: »

Similarly with new builds, the better units go quick , those little red stickers fly up on the board and you get left with the mid-terrace with tiny garden thats way over-priced.

I would advise you budget a year for house hunting.

I'm not sure you're correct about the new builds selling out quickly. Last year the Irish Times published an article titled "Despite shortage, houses being left unsold", where they stated:

"Perhaps the most notable part of the latest Goodbody report on housing is its conclusion that the stock of unsold properties are firmly on the rise. There have been plenty of reports from the industry of developments not selling out, but Goodbody crunched the numbers and found that in the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide. Most of this occurred in Dublin, where new supply was 6,905 and purchases were 5,093."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592

IAmTheReign · 03-09-2020 10:41am

PropQueries wrote: »

Are landlords really leaving the market due to unprofitability or are we reading the landlord registration statistics incorrectly?

Here's the number of landlords registered by year. As you can see, the number of registered landlords fell by only c. 3% between 2016 and 2020. Hardly an avalanche of landlords leaving the sector:

2016: 175,250
2017: 176,946
2018: 173,951
2019: 173 675
2020: 169,593

However, there are some other numbers that are interesting and may skew these figures:

1. REITS and and Pension funds now own and rent out thousands of units. They would be counted as one landlord for hundreds of individual apartments.

2. The investors who purchased investment properties between 2012 and 2014 to avail of the capital gains tax reliefs would most likely have been existing landlords who added to their existing portfolio of rental properties. For example, if an investor previously owned two investment properties and bought a third from another landlord, the number of landlords has gone down by one, but the number of rental properties has not fallen as the three investment properties are now counted as having one landlord in total, while previously, there were two registered landlords.

3. Approved Housing Bodies: The number of these type of tenancies increased by 6,771 from 27,129 to 33,900 between 2018 and 2020.

4. The number of landlords registered between 2019 and 2020 fell by 4,082 i.e only c. 2%. However, this seems to correspond nicely with property investors who purchased between 2012 and 2014 and may now be selling to avail of the tax free capital gain which they can claim c. 6 years after they made their purchase.

5. The county councils. How many have they been renting directly and may not be included in the statistics as individual landlords.

6. Student Accommodation. These are also not included in the RTB landlord statistics and amount to thousands of additional rental units over the past couple of years.

Link to RTB landlord registration statistics is here: https://www.rtb.ie/research/rtb-registration-statistics

Attack at will. I don't mind being corrected. It's how we learn.

It's worth looking at the total number of tenancies registered too, since as you say the number of landlords can be skewed by large investment companies.

The number of private tenancies is down from 310k in Q1 2019 to 302k in Q1 2020. If you include housing bodies it's down from 340k to 336k.See here

So we have a situation where the number of people operating as landlords is down 4k in the last year and the number of properties in private rental is down 8k in the same period. These numbers might not be massive but they are significant.

This despite the fact that rentals across Ireland are at an all time high, and that there was an estimated population increase of 64k in 2019 and these people need somewhere to live. See here

If we know rents are high and there's a demand in the market the question is why are any landlords leaving the market at all?

03-09-2020 10:42am

schmittel wrote: »

Spot the difference........

As I said, in 2011 it was as it was for decades before. It got more then a paint job

Bass Reeves · 03-09-2020 10:49am

Augeo wrote: »

Extension, attic conversion ........... lots more then painting was likely done. In 2011 it could have been as it was when it was built

More than likely all the work was done after buying. What looks like having being done is an attic extension, paving, outside landscaping, new doors and windows.I imagine there was some money spend inside as well, new Kitchen, flooring, tiling bathrooms etc. If it was done in the he 2012-14 period 50k would have completed a lot if that. Even up to 2017 100k would have covered it. It unlikely that the money was spend in the last 2-3 years as selling a house is not a spontaneous decision.

IAmTheReign · 03-09-2020 10:54am

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm not sure you're correct about the new builds selling out quickly. Last year the Irish Times published an article titled "Despite shortage, houses being left unsold", where they stated:

"Perhaps the most notable part of the latest Goodbody report on housing is its conclusion that the stock of unsold properties are firmly on the rise. There have been plenty of reports from the industry of developments not selling out, but Goodbody crunched the numbers and found that in the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide. Most of this occurred in Dublin, where new supply was 6,905 and purchases were 5,093."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592

From my experience new builds aren't selling out quickly at all.

As an example, I'm from Lucan originally so naturally I keep an eye on things there as I know the area. There's a recent development Shackleton Park that is aimed squarely at first time buyers that has multiple units available, despite the fact that they were advertising in February of last year that there was only a few left/

At the other end of the scale there is a 'luxury' development of large detached houses called Rokeby Park that still hasn't sold out despite first coming onto the market in 2015!

hometruths · 03-09-2020 10:58am

Augeo wrote: »

As I said, in 2011 it was as it was for decades before. It got more then a paint job

Of course neither of us know exactly what it got, for all I know the owners could have gold plated the shower, but I think it looks unlikely.

There are three roads in that area all with pretty much identical houses - Eden Park Road, Drive and Avenue. It is very clear looking at the other houses that if you are seeking to spend substantial money to add value on these houses you convert the garage and add a bedroom above. It's just the obvious thing to do.

The fact that they didn't do this, and that the EA refers to a refurbishment and that this "distinctive home has been beautifully styled" rather than anything more substantial suggests they did not spend big money on it.

Of course I may be wrong on all of the above and they spent the guts of 400k on the house to achieve a shinier version of what was there before.

But the interesting point here is that this is the second example of a property I have posted where the seller has clearly done very well having bought a bargain in the last recession, and both occasions a few posters have chimed in to say "Pfft, whats the big deal, probably didn't make much at all."

If I posted an example of somebody who paid €750k for their property and then sold it 9 years later for €350k you can be sure that various posters would pop up and say:

"Good for them, think of the money they saved on renting, you cannot put a value on that."

PropQueries · 03-09-2020 10:59am

IAmTheReign wrote: »

This despite the fact that rentals across Ireland are at an all time high, and that there was an estimated population increase of 64k in 2019 and these people need somewhere to live. See here

Good points. In relation to the "estimated population increase of 64k in 2019 and these people need somewhere to live."

Between 2011 and 2016, the population of Ireland increased by c. 173,000. However of this increase, c. 100,000 was attributable to the over 65's.

So, I guess, the question is, of this 64k increase in the population up to August 2019, how many really need a place to live? For example, how much of this increase was attributable to the over 65's and how much to the under 10's, both groups I assume are already housed.

In 2019, we built 21,133 units. If an average of two persons (the average couple excl. children) live in each of these units, that's enough new build units to accommodate 42,266 people.

hometruths · 03-09-2020 11:00am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

More than likely all the work was done after buying. What looks like having being done is an attic extension, paving, outside landscaping, new doors and windows.I imagine there was some money spend inside as well, new Kitchen, flooring, tiling bathrooms etc. If it was done in the he 2012-14 period 50k would have completed a lot if that. Even up to 2017 100k would have covered it. It unlikely that the money was spend in the last 2-3 years as selling a house is not a spontaneous decision.

The dormer attic is clearly present in the earlier streetview. The most they'd have been in for would be slabbing and plastering etc. Small money.

But I totally agree with you that it looks like a €50k - €100k (at absolute most) job to me.

Marius34 · 03-09-2020 11:29am

IAmTheReign wrote: »

From my experience new builds aren't selling out quickly at all.

As an example, I'm from Lucan originally so naturally I keep an eye on things there as I know the area. There's a recent development Shackleton Park that is aimed squarely at first time buyers that has multiple units available, despite the fact that they were advertising in February of last year that there was only a few left/

At the other end of the scale there is a 'luxury' development of large detached houses called Rokeby Park that still hasn't sold out despite first coming onto the market in 2015!

I have no clue about Lucan, but houses next to me in Dublin 13, gets sold before completion. Although Lucan might be not a case, and might be that houses in Lucan doesn't sell well.
But my question on which basis do you know that houses in those development are not selling well? Do you see many empty completed new builds (not show house) that has not been sold for a while? which street? From what i see it's an ongoing development, so it's normal to see adds until development gets completed.

DelBoy Trotter · 03-09-2020 12:24pm

gourcuff wrote: »

when people say they would have bought if it wasn't for Covid, i am not sure they understand how competitive it is for housing when you are trying to buy.

Even if you find a place you really like, in my experience there are 20+ other couples at the viewings all with the same idea, and many with deeper pockets than you.

We got outbid on maybe 7 properties before we got our place. In the end we had to increase the amount we wanted to spend to get a nice place in an area we liked and to outbid the competiton.

Similarly with new builds, the better units go quick , those little red stickers fly up on the board and you get left with the mid-terrace with tiny garden thats way over-priced.

I would advise you budget a year for house hunting.

I agree with the above. We have been looking for a year (well 6 months in reality up until Covid hit). We didn't even get to the point of actually putting in an offer on any house as anything we liked was in a bidding war within the first week

03-09-2020 12:29pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

More than likely all the work was done after buying. What looks like having being done is an attic extension, paving, outside landscaping, new doors and windows.I imagine there was some money spend inside as well, new Kitchen, flooring, tiling bathrooms etc. If it was done in the he 2012-14 period 50k would have completed a lot if that. Even up to 2017 100k would have covered it. It unlikely that the money was spend in the last 2-3 years as selling a house is not a spontaneous decision.

I'm not suggesting it was done recently, I never even hinted that the work was done in the last 2 to 3 years.

schmittel wrote: »

.........

Of course I may be wrong on all of the above and they spent the guts of 400k on the house to achieve a shinier version of what was there before..........

Obviously property rose in value from 2011 to 2018/9

2011 was rock bottom.

From the outside 2011 picture the house was nothing like the recent interior pictures.

PropQueries · 03-09-2020 12:44pm

IAmTheReign wrote: »

From my experience new builds aren't selling out quickly at all.

As an example, I'm from Lucan originally so naturally I keep an eye on things there as I know the area. There's a recent development Shackleton Park that is aimed squarely at first time buyers that has multiple units available, despite the fact that they were advertising in February of last year that there was only a few left/

At the other end of the scale there is a 'luxury' development of large detached houses called Rokeby Park that still hasn't sold out despite first coming onto the market in 2015!

I think most people living in Dublin have noticed the ever increasing number of unsold/ unrented new built units over the past three years. This was then backed up by the Goodbody report last year.

I would assume the number of unsold units in Dublin would be even higher if the county councils weren't buying up or renting a significant proportion of them.

Marius34 · 03-09-2020 12:59pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I think most people living in Dublin have noticed the ever increasing number of unsold/ unrented new built units over the past three years. This was then backed up by the Goodbody report last year.

I would assume the number of unsold units in Dublin would be even higher if the county councils weren't buying up or renting a significant proportion of them.

Goodbody report probably tells that large number of property are not getting sold in open market. There is growing number of BTL, self builts, government programs like PPP.
This is backed as well by Property price register, there is always less registered sales, than numbers of new build completions.
In addition the vacancy rate in country is going down, so nothing to back up on the numbers of increase on empty new build units.

Cuddlesworth · 03-09-2020 1:11pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Link to RTB landlord registration statistics is here: https://www.rtb.ie/research/rtb-registration-statistics

Attack at will. I don't mind being corrected. It's how we learn.

1- REIT's are mostly purchasing developments, so I would be making a assumption they would count for new tenancies in new housing stock, not existing tenancies in exisiting housing stock.

2- Sure, I'm not sure that many private landlords have really continued investing but its a possibility.

3- Housing body's have been purchasing and adding to exisiting stock, their tenancies are shown now days though and their impact is minimal.

4- They fell. Will get back to this.

5- Councils don't register with the RTB. And councils are not adding stock, housing associations have taken over that role.

6- I think there will be a lot of this coming online using the new planning laws but I don't think there would be significant impact on the market.

Lets get back to the landlords fell during the last 4 years and why it significant. First thing is that the number of private tenancies fell during that period too, trending with the decrease in landlord numbers. REIT's and housing body's should have added significantly to the number of tenancies but they still fell.

The rent to own ratio is currently around 20% in this country. So if you get 20k new homes in 2019, you expect to see a increase of 4k in private tenancies as new landlords enter the market. If in a 4 year period you build 60k new homes, you expect to see a rough increase of 12k new tenancies, REIT, housing body, private landlord etc.

Lastly, RTB don't publish the number of landlords who register pre-existing tenancies who were not registered before. I don't know what the impact

So what do we know with certainty.

Significantly high rents across the country in the last 4 years.
Significant legislation put in place regulating the rental market in the last 4 years.
New housing stock being added at a increasing rate across the country in the last 4 years.
Number of private tenancies decreasing during that period.
Number of private landlords decreasing during that period.

Seems fairly easy to extrapolate that something is wrong, most likely smaller scale landlords bailing hard.

IAmTheReign · 03-09-2020 1:12pm

Marius34 wrote: »

I have no clue about Lucan, but houses next to me in Dublin 13, gets sold before completion. Although Lucan might be not a case, and might be that houses in Lucan doesn't sell well.
But my question on which basis do you know that houses in those development are not selling well? Do you see many empty completed new builds (not show house) that has not been sold for a while? which street? From what i see it's an ongoing development, so it's normal to see adds until development gets completed.

Well for Rokeby Park I mean I don't need to wander around the estate to know not fully selling a development of 71 houses in 5 years isn't good!

The Shackleton development was started so long ago there's already some coming up for sale second hand. It's not an area of Lucan I would want to live but the quality of houses seem to be very good for the price. It all reminds me of the Adamstown development in the lead up the recession where there was houses and apartments lying empty for years before they eventually sold.

PropQueries · 03-09-2020 1:17pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Goodbody report probably tells that large number of property are not getting sold in open market. There is growing number of BTL, self builts, government programs like PPP.
This is backed as well by Property price register, there is always less registered sales, than numbers of new build completions.
In addition the vacancy rate in country is going down, so nothing to back up on the numbers of increase on empty new build units.

Maybe. But this developer in Dublin, back in February (pre-covid), would disagree with you:

"Two Dublin 4 apartment blocks where apartments went for sale last year are now being offered exclusively as rentals.

Deerfield on Sandymount Avenue, Ballsbridge, with nine units, and 19 Pembroke Road, with a mix of six period units and six new-build units, both looked set to sell well, with booking deposits quickly paid on about half the units at 19 Pembroke Road, and a smaller number reserved at Deerfield.

But sales failed to materialise in line with expectations and developer Agricula has withdrawn the properties from the market and returned booking deposits to intending buyers. As of mid-January they have been advertised for rent through agent Bergins."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/plan-b-for-d4-boutique-apartments-as-buyers-become-renters-instead-1.4161644

PropQueries · 03-09-2020 1:22pm

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

1- REIT's are mostly purchasing developments, so I would be making a assumption they would count for new tenancies in new housing stock, not existing tenancies in exisiting housing stock.

2- Sure, I'm not sure that many private landlords have really continued investing but its a possibility.

3- Housing body's have been purchasing and adding to exisiting stock, their tenancies are shown now days though and their impact is minimal.

4- They fell. Will get back to this.

5- Councils don't register with the RTB. And councils are not adding stock, housing associations have taken over that role.

6- I think there will be a lot of this coming online using the new planning laws but I don't think there would be significant impact on the market.

Lets get back to the landlords fell during the last 4 years and why it significant. First thing is that the number of private tenancies fell during that period too, trending with the decrease in landlord numbers. REIT's and housing body's should have added significantly to the number of tenancies but they still fell.

The rent to own ratio is currently around 20% in this country. So if you get 20k new homes in 2019, you expect to see a increase of 4k in private tenancies as new landlords enter the market. If in a 4 year period you build 60k new homes, you expect to see a rough increase of 12k new tenancies, REIT, housing body, private landlord etc.

Lastly, RTB don't publish the number of landlords who register pre-existing tenancies who were not registered before. I don't know what the impact

So what do we know with certainty.

Significantly high rents across the country in the last 4 years.
Significant legislation put in place regulating the rental market in the last 4 years.
New housing stock being added at a increasing rate across the country in the last 4 years.
Number of private tenancies decreasing during that period.
Number of private landlords decreasing during that period.

Seems fairly easy to extrapolate that something is wrong, most likely smaller scale landlords bailing hard.

Maybe. But would a c. 3% fall in the number of landlords between 2016 and 2020 be regarded as "bailing hard"?

I think it's more to do with landlords buying investment properties between 2012 and 2014 to take advantage of the capital gains tax reliefs.

They initially had to hold onto them for 7 years to take advantage of this tax relief. Two budgets ago, that was reduced to 5 years. I think this explains the slight c. 3% fall in registered landlords between 2016 and 2020.

awec · 03-09-2020 1:25pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I think most people living in Dublin have noticed the ever increasing number of unsold/ unrented new built units over the past three years. This was then backed up by the Goodbody report last year.

I would assume the number of unsold units in Dublin would be even higher if the county councils weren't buying up or renting a significant proportion of them.

Um, obviously? The number of unsold units would be higher if houses weren't being bought to house the people who need housing.

In other news, the number of unsold units would increase if we started to colonize mars.

Marius34 · 03-09-2020 1:29pm

IAmTheReign wrote: »

Well for Rokeby Park I mean I don't need to wander around the estate to know not fully selling a development of 71 houses in 5 years isn't good!

The Shackleton development was started so long ago there's already some coming up for sale second hand. It's not an area of Lucan I would want to live but the quality of houses seem to be very good for the price. It all reminds me of the Adamstown development in the lead up the recession where there was houses and apartments lying empty for years before they eventually sold.

One thing would be that they have 71 houses for 5 years empty that not selling, another thing is that the development is slow, developed by smaller constructions teams. It still ongoing development.
Although it's very common that houses over 500K, takes much longer to sell.

awec · 03-09-2020 1:30pm

I am pretty sure the number of landlords has been trending down every year for almost a decade? Even when prices were going up, and rents going up, the number of landlords was going down. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong I'm sure.

I think a significant factor is the accidental landlords after the 2008 crash finally getting back into equity, selling up and moving on with their lives. But this is just a hunch, nothing to back it up.

PropQueries · 03-09-2020 1:42pm

awec wrote: »

Um, obviously? The number of unsold units would be higher if houses weren't being bought to house the people who need housing.

Deleted. Replied to wrong post. Apologies.

PropQueries · 03-09-2020 1:43pm

awec wrote: »

I am pretty sure the number of landlords has been trending down every year for almost a decade? Even when prices were going up, and rents going up, the number of landlords was going down. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong I'm sure.

I think a significant factor is the accidental landlords after the 2008 crash finally getting back into equity, selling up and moving on with their lives. But this is just a hunch, nothing to back it up.

Here's the landlord registration figures 2016 - 2020. The number of registered landlords actually increased between 2016 and 2017. Fell between 2017 and 2018. Remained fairly static between 2018 and 2019. Then fell 2% between 2019 and 2020.

Hardly the avalanche of private landlords leaving the sector that some commentators want everyone to believe.

It also doesn't take into account the thousands of apartments owned by REITS etc., who would be counted as one landlord instead of thousands of additional individual landlords as would have been the case prior to them entering the market.

2016: 175,250
2017: 176,946
2018: 173,951
2019: 173 675
2020: 169,593

In relation to the 2% fall between 2019 and 2020, I think it's more to do with landlords/ investors who bought investment properties between 2012 and 2014 to take advantage of the capital gains tax reliefs.

They initially had to hold onto them for 7 years to take advantage of this tax relief. Two budgets ago, that was reduced to 5 years. I think this explains the slight c. 3% fall in registered landlords between 2016 and 2020.

Yes, some are selling up (3% between 2016 and 2020). But it appears to be primarily to capitalise on the tax free profit they can now crystalise.

awec · 03-09-2020 1:51pm

Do you have the figures from 2008-2016?

PropQueries · 03-09-2020 2:03pm

awec wrote: »

Do you have the figures from 2008-2016?

I do. Hard to find as the RTB seems to hide them well. But I provide the RTB link below:

2007: 92,000
2008: 100,000
2009: 116,577
2010: 145,000
2011: 182,000
2012: 212,000
2013: 179,000
2014: 160,000
2015: 170,000
2016: 175,250
2017: 176,946
2018: 173,951
2019: 173 675
2020: 169,593

As you can see from the above, the big drop between 2012 and 2014 coincides with the landlords and other property investors who bought between 2012 and 2014 to capitalise on the capital gains tax reliefs.

That's why I think the small fall in the number of registered landlords between 2016 and 2020 is more to do with landlords/ investors who bought investment properties between 2012 and 2014 to take advantage of these capital gains tax reliefs. This tax relief only applies to properties purchased between 2012 and 2014.

They initially had to hold onto them for 7 years to take advantage of this tax relief. Two budgets ago, that was reduced to 5 years. I think this explains the slight c. 3% fall in registered landlords between 2016 and 2020.

Yes, some are selling up (3% between 2016 and 2020). But it appears to be primarily to capitalise on the tax free profit they can now crystalise rather than the "unprofitability" in the sector that some commentators put forward.

RTB Link for 2007 - 2015 here: https://www.rtb.ie/images/uploads/general/RTB_Annual_Report_2016.pdf

2016 - 2020 figures are on their website here: https://www.rtb.ie/research/rtb-registration-statistics

Wanderer78 · 03-09-2020 2:06pm

awec wrote:

I think a significant factor is the accidental landlords after the 2008 crash finally getting back into equity, selling up and moving on with their lives. But this is just a hunch, nothing to back it up.

Sure why would you be landlord, what a train wreck of a business, the market is not truly capable of providing us with all our needs, particularly in relation to housing

IAmTheReign · 03-09-2020 2:39pm

Marius34 wrote: »

One thing would be that they have 71 houses for 5 years empty that not selling, another thing is that the development is slow, developed by smaller constructions teams. It still ongoing development.
Although it's very common that houses over 500K, takes much longer to sell.

My point was in response to a poster claiming new builds were selling quickly. Now that might be the case for some developments but I was pointing out that this is not the case for all new builds.

In 2017 the first phase at Shackleton Park sold out off plans. The latest phase has units lying empty. The demand that was there 3 years ago has calmed.

Units in Rokeby Park have been ready to move into since 2015 and there is still some available. Yes, they're expensive so you would expect them to sell slower than other developments but 5 years is a long time to shift 71 houses in a period of supposed high demand.

Cuddlesworth · 03-09-2020 2:48pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe. But would a c. 3% fall in the number of landlords between 2016 and 2020 be regarded as "bailing hard"?

I think it's more to do with landlords buying investment properties between 2012 and 2014 to take advantage of the capital gains tax reliefs.

They initially had to hold onto them for 7 years to take advantage of this tax relief. Two budgets ago, that was reduced to 5 years. I think this explains the slight c. 3% fall in registered landlords between 2016 and 2020.

The fall in landlords could be attributed to capital gains. But they are not being replaced and the number of tenancies is falling, meaning decreasing supply. The country is still growing, one of the stats should at least be increasing, not decreasing. Even if they remained static over 4 years, its still a relative decrease.

PropQueries · 03-09-2020 3:10pm

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

The fall in landlords could be attributed to capital gains. But they are not being replaced and the number of tenancies is falling, meaning decreasing supply. The country is still growing, one of the stats should at least be increasing, not decreasing. Even if they remained static over 4 years, its still a relative decrease.

Maybe. But if a landlord who owns three properties buys two more rental properties off another landlord, the number of registered landlords falls by one, but the number of rental properties remains the same i.e. 5.

So, even if the number of registered landlords falls, it doesn't mean the number of rental properties falls.

There's one thing I've noticed over the past three years. The media haven't done much reporting with photos of queues and queues of people standing outside properties for sale or rent.

MacronvFrugals · 03-09-2020 3:21pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Sure why would you be landlord, what a train wreck of a business, the market is not truly capable of providing us with all our needs, particularly in relation to housing

37% of FG TDs being landlords might answer some of those questions.

Hubertj · 03-09-2020 3:46pm

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

37% of FG TDs being landlords might answer some of those questions.

12.95 Fine Gael TDs are landlords? Who is the 0.95?

brisan · 03-09-2020 3:48pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

With a semi lockdown still in place people will still continue to build up savings. Any vaccine will be another 9-12 months before general population are vaccinated and total lockdown ends.

From that savings will continue to climb. What posters are failing to accept is that while all the savings will not effect property prices some of it will. Not everyone is savings extra but some are. Not everyone is saving a deposit but some are. Savings are more likely to be spend on big ticket items rather than whittle away on weekends away. Some will spend this extra savings on cars or once in a lifetime holidays. But for other its will help them to reach there deposit sooner. It will also help breach( or maybe increase them) differences between house prices and mortgages.

If only a faction of those extra savings are directed at house purchases it will impact the market through higher labour and building costs and extra house buyers

It will not protect against inflation

I think someone stated we are heading for deflation ?????

Wanderer78 · 03-09-2020 3:54pm

brisan wrote: »

I think someone stated we are heading for deflation ?????

it looks like thats the story, but i guess we ll know in time

Wanderer78 · 03-09-2020 3:55pm

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

37% of FG TDs being landlords might answer some of those questions.

our housing issues, are far more complicated than just our td's, this the market thing is done, time for us to move on from it

Marius34 · 03-09-2020 4:07pm

IAmTheReign wrote: »

My point was in response to a poster claiming new builds were selling quickly. Now that might be the case for some developments but I was pointing out that this is not the case for all new builds.

In 2017 the first phase at Shackleton Park sold out off plans. The latest phase has units lying empty. The demand that was there 3 years ago has calmed.

Units in Rokeby Park have been ready to move into since 2015 and there is still some available. Yes, they're expensive so you would expect them to sell slower than other developments but 5 years is a long time to shift 71 houses in a period of supposed high demand.

What you mean, that there are multiple houses built in 2015, that still lies empty in development?
Or the ones completed in 2020?

PropQueries · 03-09-2020 4:21pm

brisan wrote: »

I think someone stated we are heading for deflation ?????

Well, if we do go into a long period of deflation, prices and wages fall. Given that interest rates are already at zero, that's bad news for Irish house prices going forward as potential buyers will be approved for lower value mortgages.

If inflation rises just in Ireland, we will become even more uncompetitive relative to our eurozone trading partners. Exporting businesses will close or leave and this is also bad news for Irish house prices going forward.

If inflation rises across the eurozone, interest rates will rise and this is also bad news for Irish house prices going forward.

Inflation or deflation, I believe it's bad news all round for Irish house prices going forward.

I could be wrong.

Rossvet · 03-09-2020 4:28pm

By "bad news" do you mean that they wont be rising like mad?
That would surely be good news as it will help young people buy houses father than being priced out.

Springy Turf · 03-09-2020 4:38pm

Rossvet wrote: »

By "bad news" do you mean that they wont be rising like mad?
That would surely be good news as it will help young people buy houses father than being priced out.

Not necessarily. This could give rise to a situation where cash buyers / value investors might see value at a higher price point then is affordable to your typical mortgage dependant FTB.

A big recession with job losses suits only a very small group of people. The people who think they won't be touched in a mega recession / housing crash scenario are delusional. There would be many more losers than winners.

Assetbacked · 03-09-2020 5:12pm

The S&P 500 is down a few percent today with the big tech stocks . The thing is that it is likely to continue to correct; Apple phones, Tesla cars, Netflix new shows etc. aren't subject to increased demand the past few weeks but the stocks have been climbing like crazy. It appears to have been a bit of a dead cat bounce of a recovery aided by QE and this hysteria has run its course. The problem is that a 20% correction in the stock market isn't anything scary considering how high it has climbed but it will lead to panic selling and could start a chain reaction in the system. The "W" shaped recovery is likely to be the outcome with covid and we are going to start moving into that 2nd dip. Perhaps this recession talk might start to be seen in more job losses outside of the airline, tourism and retail sectors as well as asset price declines. It's going to be a bumpy few months as we are at the tail end of the covid crisis and returning to normal - buckle up!

hometruths · 03-09-2020 5:37pm

Springy Turf wrote: »

Not necessarily. This could give rise to a situation where cash buyers / value investors might see value at a higher price point then is affordable to your typical mortgage dependant FTB.

A big recession with job losses suits only a very small group of people. The people who think they won't be touched in a mega recession / housing crash scenario are delusional. There would be many more losers than winners.

Surely it will suit those people who are in secure employment and can comfortably afford to take on a mortgage?

i.e the banks will lend less, because there are less people in employment, but they will continue to lend affordable mortgages to people with secure incomes.

coolshannagh28 · 03-09-2020 5:44pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The S&P 500 is down a few percent today with the big tech stocks . The thing is that it is likely to continue to correct; Apple phones, Tesla cars, Netflix new shows etc. aren't subject to increased demand the past few weeks but the stocks have been climbing like crazy. It appears to have been a bit of a dead cat bounce of a recovery aided by QE and this hysteria has run its course. The problem is that a 20% correction in the stock market isn't anything scary considering how high it has climbed but it will lead to panic selling and could start a chain reaction in the system. The "W" shaped recovery is likely to be the outcome with covid and we are going to start moving into that 2nd dip. Perhaps this recession talk might start to be seen in more job losses outside of the airline, tourism and retail sectors as well as asset price declines. It's going to be a bumpy few months as we are at the tail end of the covid crisis and returning to normal - buckle up!

Agree with everything you say , the wildcard is Trump , he needs the markets to remain high if he is to have any chance of re election ;he is putting extreme pressure on Jerome Powell the FED Chairman to pump QE in order to achieve this . Somehow he may achieve his aim but things could get very rocky post election.

Springy Turf · 03-09-2020 7:03pm

schmittel wrote: »

Surely it will suit those people who are in secure employment and can comfortably afford to take on a mortgage?

i.e the banks will lend less, because there are less people in employment, but they will continue to lend affordable mortgages to people with secure incomes.

Sure, if you are still in secure employment when everything else burns around you, you'll be in a good position. But if it gets to that stage, there will have to be tax hikes, public sector pay cuts and freezes, layoffs in industries that right now seem secure and so on. Pick most jobs, and you will be able to see how a couple of vulnerable industries crashing will hurt them. (for example most big tech is dependant on advertising. if the advertisers are hit, big tech is hit. If companies are getting squeezed, advertising spend gets squeezed).

The_Conductor · 03-09-2020 7:09pm

Springy Turf wrote: »

Sure, if you are still in secure employment when everything else burns around you, you'll be in a good position. But if it gets to that stage, there will have to be tax hikes, public sector pay cuts and freezes, layoffs in industries that right now seem secure and so on. Pick most jobs, and you will be able to see how a couple of vulnerable industries crashing will hurt them. (for example most big tech is dependant on advertising. if the advertisers are hit, big tech is hit).

They've already cancelled the tax cuts for the 'squeezed middle' that were highlighted in the general election. The public sector have been informed they are having a complete freeze on recruitment (but no job cuts) and the use of contract staff is to be wound down as expeditiously as possible. There is a 2% pay restoration for the public sector under the last pay agreement, due to be paid on the 1st of October- which hasn't been cancelled/postponed (yet) but it has been highlighted that any futher pay restoration will be put off for at least a number of years. The big spending Departments (esp. DSEAP) are being told to identify savings- and for the purpose of this exercise- identifying fraud is not to be considered a saving- but active steps should be taken to manage disbursements under the various subheads. The HSE and health in general- are going to have to adjust to living within their means- and we still have a deficit of 28-30 billion for 2020 and at least 20 billion for 2021 (and thats making a working assumption that we don't get slaughtered over Brexit from the 1st Jan.

There are torrid times ahead of us.

Pelezico · 03-09-2020 7:16pm

27 falls today
11 rises.

Springy Turf · 03-09-2020 7:18pm

Pelezico wrote: »

27 falls today
11 rises.

There seems to be more price drops then rises in general - but I don't see any correlation between this and prices. The average asking and selling price seems pretty much unchanged (within 3-4%) over the last few months.

cubatahavana · 03-09-2020 7:18pm

Pelezico wrote: »

27 falls today
11 rises.

How many with no change?

Dwarf.Shortage · 03-09-2020 7:26pm

Hubertj wrote: »

12.95 Fine Gael TDs are landlords? Who is the 0.95?

13/47 = .3714, spurious accuracy to not round to 37%.

Very little value in being difficult for the sake of it.

Hubertj · 03-09-2020 7:57pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

13/47 = .3714, spurious accuracy to not round to 37%.

Very little value in being difficult for the sake of it.

what? wheres 47 coming from? TDs? I thought they had 35?

i was taking the p*ss anyway.

Mic 1972 · 03-09-2020 7:57pm

brisan wrote: »

I think someone stated we are heading for deflation ?????

The consensus view among economists is that sustained inflation occurs when a nation's money supply growth outpaces economic growth.

If we are all printing a lot of money while the economy is shrinking we are going to face high inflation.

That's what we are going to see

PropQueries · 03-09-2020 8:05pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The consensus view among economists is that sustained inflation occurs when a nation's money supply growth outpaces economic growth.

If we are all printing a lot of money while the economy is shrinking we are going to face high inflation.

That's what we are going to see

Maybe. But, if that is true, interest rates rise and the impact on Irish property values will be significant (on the downside).

*** Disclaimer - I have made the below point numerous times and I fully understand this. If you're a regular poster, you don't need to read the below. I'm adding it in for the benefit of new posters and the younger generation. ***

I put some numbers into a mortgage repayment calculator. As you can see below, if a couple that is approved for a maximum €300,000 mortgage and buys today, a similar couple with a similar repayment capacity would only be approved for a mortgage of €200,000 in 5 years time if mortgage interest rates did increase by 3%. This doesn't impact the buyer today but it does impact them if they wish to sell in 5 years times as most similar potential buyers with a similar repayment capacity would be approved for a significantly lower value mortgage. If interest rates rise, it will have a a very very negative impact on Irish residential house prices.

Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €300,000 at 3% = €1,264.81

Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €200,000 at 6% = €1,199.10

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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