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Munster Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread III

13567…195

Comments

  • #102
    irishbucsfan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,978 ✭✭✭✭irishbucsfan


    Lelantos wrote: »
    Just because there is a chance, doesn't mean it will happen. Makes Munsters win even greater ;)

    If the probability of being in a car crash every week was 1 in 4 then there would be 2478125299 crashes every year in the usa. There are actually about 11 million. 1 for every 20 drivers or so. And by my estimation (im no emmet) thats about a 0.44% chance every week.


  • #103
    Cookiemunster
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cookiemunster


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Underdog the wrong word there as it was a 1v1 event, what I meant was that 1 in 10 chances happen all the time.

    1 in 10 isn't massively unlikely whatsoever.

    If I told you you had a 1 in 10 chance of getting in a car crash every time you drove to work, would you do it?

    In sporting terms when any team that is 10/1 to win when there's only two teams involved it means they're massive underdogs.

    For example in last Sundays community shield Wigan were 10/1, while Utd were 4/11 on to win. Wigan were massive underdogs and not expected to win.


  • #104
    justsomebloke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,407 ✭✭✭✭justsomebloke


    Can we please keep this on the Topic of Munster please.


    i.e. so on average at least 5 Munster players are in a crash every day


  • #105
    irishbucsfan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,978 ✭✭✭✭irishbucsfan


    Cookiemunster wrote: »
    In sporting terms when any team that is 10/1 to win when there's only two teams involved it means they're massive underdogs.

    For example in last Sundays community shield Wigan were 10/1, while Utd were 4/11 on to win. Wigan were massive underdogs and not expected to win.

    And that team will win about 10% of the time. Or 8-9% if the bookies are doing a good job.


  • #106
    Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop


    Cookiemunster wrote: »
    In sporting terms when any team that is 10/1 to win when there's only two teams involved it means they're massive underdogs.

    For example in last Sundays community shield Wigan were 10/1, while Utd were 4/11 on to win. Wigan were massive underdogs and not expected to win.

    which is exactly why I corrected the post....


  • #107
    Micky Dolenz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,080 ✭✭✭✭Micky Dolenz


    Deleted User wrote: »
    well maybe if you multiply those second set of digits by ~ 10Exp16

    You're a right barrel of laughs.


  • #108
    Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop


    Personal comments aren't really very useful.

    Expect more from a Mod tbh


  • #109
    irishbucsfan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,978 ✭✭✭✭irishbucsfan


    jm08 wrote: »
    Munster were massive underdogs - listen to Paul O'Connell's after match interview. He talks about how delighted he was for his young team as everyone had written them off and it was hard on them and their families.

    Sport is different though. Logic doesn't dictate who you support - emotions do. Logic would be to support Manchester United because they win a lot, emotion would be to support Celtic - they are never going to win the Champions League, yet they have a massive following.

    Choosing which team you support may be emotional (although in a lot of cases it doesnt seem to be!).

    But predicting how well they will do should be logical.


  • #110
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    jm08 wrote: »
    Sport is different though. Before the Quins v Munster game, the rational thought was that Munster hadn't a hope particularly after some poor performances in the League and scraping through their group and this was in the Stoop.

    It turned out different though.

    Thats sport - anything can happen.

    Yes, of course sport is different.

    You have just nailed it. In the most recent example JBM told his young cork hurlers to believe in themselves,,,,no one gave them a chance,, bookies had them at 10/1 a few weeks ago ,,and bingo,,,,they are now favourites @ 8/11


  • #111
    Micky Dolenz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,080 ✭✭✭✭Micky Dolenz


    irishbucsfan wrote: »
    Choosing which team you support may be emotional (although in a lot of cases it doesnt seem to be!).

    But predicting how well they will do should be logical.

    Logic and sport don't always go hand in hand. If it did, there would be no such things as book makers.


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  • #112
    irishbucsfan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,978 ✭✭✭✭irishbucsfan


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Yes, of course sport is different.

    You have just nailed it. In the most recent example JBM told his young cork hurlers to believe in themselves,,,,no one gave them a chance,, bookies had them at 10/1 a few weeks ago ,,and bingo,,,,they are now favourites @ 8/11

    Dublin and Cork were Evens. So the bookies gave them a pretty good chance!


  • #113
    irishbucsfan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,978 ✭✭✭✭irishbucsfan


    Micky Dolenz wrote: »
    Logic and sport don't always go hand in hand. If it did, there would be no such things as book makers.

    It does go hand in hand. And that is exactly why there are bookies.


  • #114
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    irishbucsfan wrote: »
    Dublin and Cork were Evens. So the bookies gave them a pretty good chance!

    In that one yes,,,the bookies learnt after getting spanked whe cork destroyed KK. This is why jm08 is entirely correct.


  • #115
    Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop


    Micky Dolenz wrote: »
    Logic and sport don't always go hand in hand. If it did, there would be no such things as book makers.

    I think that you may need to read up on logic.


  • #116
    Micky Dolenz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,080 ✭✭✭✭Micky Dolenz


    irishbucsfan wrote: »
    It does go hand in hand. And that is exactly why there are bookies.

    How so?

    Logically speaking, the strongest team would win against a wreaking team. Or the fastest horse would win.

    Munster, logically speaking should not have gotten anywhere near a HC final last year.


  • #117
    Buer
    Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    Rightwing wrote: »
    In that one yes,,,the bookies learnt after getting spanked whe cork destroyed KK. This is why jm08 is entirely correct.

    How could the bookies get spanked when the favourites lose?


  • #118
    .ak
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Micky Dolenz wrote: »
    How so?

    Logically speaking, the strongest team would win against a wreaking team. Or the fastest horse would win.

    Munster, logically speaking should not have gotten anywhere near a HC final last year.



    Yeah, but the reason bookies are generally do well is because they apply logic to their odds. The Munster v Quins game obviously flew in the face of that, but those games are the exception, not the norm.

    In short, I don't think think the bookies would ever turn around and go "Okay, I think we need to relook at the odds for the Munster game, I've heard they have a lot of 'belief'.", however, it's perfectly acceptable to think they would've applied the 'POC' effect to the odds, but that's a logical decision.


  • #119
    thomond2006
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Rightwing wrote: »
    In that one yes,,,the bookies learnt after getting spanked whe cork destroyed KK. This is why jm08 is entirely correct.

    The bookies lose money when favourites lose. In your example they would have wanted cork to win.


  • #120
    Micky Dolenz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,080 ✭✭✭✭Micky Dolenz


    True. But sport often transcends logic. Mentality and morale are hugely important.

    I wonder, in the last 10 HC, how often was it won by the starting favourite.


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  • #121
    .ak
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    The bookies lose money when favourites lose. In your example they would have wanted kk to win.

    Is it not the other way around? So when 100 people bet on Quins, but 5 bet on Munster, then the bookies have made more money in only having to pay out to 5 punters (albeit at higher odds)


  • #122
    irishbucsfan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,978 ✭✭✭✭irishbucsfan


    Micky Dolenz wrote: »
    True. But sport often transcends logic. Mentality and morale are hugely important.

    I wonder, in the last 10 HC, how often was it won by the starting favourite.

    It doesn't often transcend logic.

    The bookies give about a 20% chance of thr favourite to win the H Cup.


  • #123
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Buer wrote: »
    How could the bookies get spanked when the favourites lose?

    The money went on Cork both to win it outright (10/1) and to win the match (3/1). Odds were shortening but they took a hit.

    I should point it out that there's a huge difference between being 10/1 to win a tournament and 10/1 in a 1 off match.

    Also the car crash scenario that someone brought up....that's a 1 off over a perios of time. So there's a 20% probability that you will be involved in some sort of crash over a defined period of time,,,,,not ot be confused with every time you are in a car.


  • #124
    thomond2006
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    .ak wrote: »
    Is it not the other way around? So when 100 people bet on Quins, but 5 bet on Munster, then the bookies have made more money in only having to pay out to 5 punters (albeit at higher odds)

    I'm pretty certain I'm correct. Hopefully the resident expert will clarify either way!


  • #125
    Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop


    Micky Dolenz wrote: »
    True. But sport often transcends logic. Mentality and morale are hugely important.

    I wonder, in the last 10 HC, how often was it won by the starting favourite.

    If one had already shown an inability to understand logic, one probably shouldn't go about saying things like the above. If one can't understand something, how could one feel qualified to make the statement that sport goes beyond the limits of logic? (and often!).


  • #126
    thomond2006
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Human beings are irrational, therefore they would transcend logic in any field or context.

    That's the way I'd look at it anyway.


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  • #127
    Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop


    A balanced book is covered regardless of result.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting is an example of an "always balanced" book.

    But due to free information, this type of bookmaking is now almost completely extinct.

    If the punters were - as correct as possible - the GTO bookmaking book would be balanced.


  • #128
    Micky Dolenz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,080 ✭✭✭✭Micky Dolenz


    Deleted User wrote: »
    If one had already shown an inability to understand logic, one probably shouldn't go about saying things like the above. If one can't understand something, how could one feel qualified to make the statement that sport goes beyond the limits of logic? (and often!).

    Heh.

    One does understand logic, one also understands the logical result is not always achieved.


  • #129
    Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Fernanda Ripe Gumdrop


    Micky Dolenz wrote: »
    Heh.

    One does understand logic, one also understands the logical expected result is not always achieved.

    which is clearly logical.

    By your reasoning, a fair die is illogical. As the expected result is 3.5, yet a die can never show 3.5.


  • #130
    Risteard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,698 ✭✭✭Risteard


    tumblr_leetnv21it1qdoghio1_400.gif


  • #131
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,300 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    There was nothing illogical about Munster beating Quins (particularly considering Quins were doing a bit **** at the time), just unexpected.


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  • #132
    jm08
    Registered Users Posts: 11,301 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    There was nothing illogical about Munster beating Quins (particularly considering Quins were doing a bit **** at the time), just unexpected.

    But Munster were very **** at the time.


  • #133
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    jm08 wrote: »
    But Munster were very **** at the time.

    I would term that match an upset. But not a big upset.

    Munster have proven over the years they can rise the challenge in a 1 off match.


  • #134
    .ak
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Micky Dolenz wrote: »
    Heh.

    One does understand logic, one also understands the logical result is not always achieved.
    Deleted User wrote: »
    which is clearly logical.

    By your reasoning, a fair die is illogical. As the expected result is 3.5, yet a die can never show 3.5.

    Okay, you're melting my brain now, and this totally fits in this thread: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056950241


  • #135
    Micky Dolenz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,080 ✭✭✭✭Micky Dolenz


    .ak wrote: »
    Okay, you're melting my brain now, and this totally fits in this thread: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056950241

    Deadly. Perfect place for my math equation that sums up my thoughts. :D


  • #136
    Tomfla
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭Tomfla


    The bookies don't lose when a favourite wins. The trick, as I understand it, is that if the favourite wins the losing stakes from the other losers would cover their payout.

    If one of the non-favourites win, the bookie needs to make sure that the large amount of favourite stakes cover most or all of the large payout.

    The bookie won't always be able to balance things like that but if they do it more often than not they are in profit.


  • #137
    Unapologetic
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 15 ✭Unapologetic


    Was anyone really that surprised when Munster beat Quins?

    I certainly wasn't, was more surprised by Munster being able to compete so well against Clermont. But I thought Clermont had overcome their playoff problems, which clearly they hadn't.

    Those two games showed that on their day Munster can give anyone a run for their money, is that a surprise? No.


  • #138
    who_me
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭who_me


    Unapologetic wrote: »
    Was anyone really that surprised when Munster beat Quins?

    I certainly wasn't, was more surprised by Munster being able to compete so well against Clermont. But I thought Clermont had overcome their playoff problems, which clearly they hadn't.

    Those two games showed that on their day Munster can give anyone a run for their money, is that a surprise? No.

    You have to remember how badly Munster played in the Pro12 in the previous rounds, including being beaten by the Dragons, hammered by Treviso and absolutely destroyed by Glasgow. In light of those results, it was very hard to know which Munster team would show up. There's always been this "they'll get it together on the day" for the Heineken Cup, but you can only go to that well so often.


  • #139
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The money went on Cork both to win it outright (10/1) and to win the match (3/1). Odds were shortening but they took a hit.

    I should point it out that there's a huge difference between being 10/1 to win a tournament and 10/1 in a 1 off match.

    Also the car crash scenario that someone brought up....that's a 1 off over a perios of time. So there's a 20% probability that you will be involved in some sort of crash over a defined period of time,,,,,not ot be confused with every time you are in a car.

    Some serious codology going on there. You don't really know what you're on about in the above

    I don't know much about how bookmakers operate internally but it's common knowledge that favorites are backed more, and hence the bookies always like to see an outisder win


  • #140
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Buer wrote: »
    How could the bookies get spanked when the favourites lose?
    thomond2006 wrote: »
    The bookies lose money when favourites lose. In your example they would have wanted cork to win.

    I see I've been beaten to it. Although I don't expect logic and facts to prevail


  • #141
    .ak
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Micky Dolenz wrote: »
    You're a right barrel of laughs.

    Attack the post not the poster please.


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  • #142
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Unapologetic wrote: »
    Was anyone really that surprised when Munster beat Quins?

    I certainly wasn't, was more surprised by Munster being able to compete so well against Clermont. But I thought Clermont had overcome their playoff problems, which clearly they hadn't.

    Those two games showed that on their day Munster can give anyone a run for their money, is that a surprise? No.

    I agree. We had them rattled, if Murray had a little more composure we'd have got a try and prob gone on to win it out.


  • #143
    former legend
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,309 ✭✭✭former legend


    Rightwing wrote: »
    I agree. We had them rattled, if Murray had a little more composure we'd have got a try and prob gone on to win it out.

    And if Clermont had any composure at all, they'd have been out of sight.


  • #144
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    former legend wrote: »
    And if Clermont had any composure at all, they'd have been out of sight.

    That's why we got in their face ;)


  • #145
    kooga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,905 ✭✭✭kooga


    munster squad training in UCC Mardyke pitches


  • #146
    phog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,377 ✭✭✭✭phog


    From MRSC Facebook page
    To celebrate Bank of Ireland’s return as Main Sponsor of Munster Rugby, we have new Munster jerseys to give away all week. Visit this page from Monday and check out our “Munster Memories” as we look back at some of the most memorable moments from the previous periods of the bank’s sponsorship:)


  • #147
    phog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,377 ✭✭✭✭phog


    kooga wrote: »
    munster squad training in UCC Mardyke pitches

    From MR tweeter

    BRy1m0lCAAAiXEQ.jpg:large

    I suppose a few more will be added to MR.ie later.


  • #148
    CZ 453
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,753 ✭✭✭CZ 453


    Alright lads. Just buying a season ticket there.Which terrace in Thomond is the home terrace or more of a home terrace? Thanks


  • #149
    who_me
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭who_me


    shezer wrote: »
    Alright lads. Just buying a season ticket there.Which terrace in Thomond is the home terrace or more of a home terrace? Thanks

    Not sure there's such a thing really. Given the East terrace as it is has been around for longer, there's probably more of an established crowd there. I prefer it too as the layout is more open, whereas the West terrace is divided up into 'pods' which I find really annoying. The East terrace is probably better for getting into / out of the ground quickly.

    On the West side, you're closer to the supporter's club bar (if you're a member, probably not) which can have quicker service than the other bars on HC games. Also, the West terrace is probably a bit more sheltered from the rain than the East. Both are technically covered, but the East in particular is susceptible to the wind driving rain into your face.

    So basically, I'm no help. :)


  • #150
    CZ 453
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,753 ✭✭✭CZ 453


    who_me wrote: »
    Not sure there's such a thing really. Given the East terrace as it is has been around for longer, there's probably more of an established crowd there. I prefer it too as the layout is more open, whereas the West terrace is divided up into 'pods' which I find really annoying. The East terrace is probably better for getting into / out of the ground quickly.

    On the West side, you're closer to the supporter's club bar (if you're a member, probably not) which can have quicker service than the other bars on HC games. Also, the West terrace is probably a bit more sheltered from the rain than the East. Both are technically covered, but the East in particular is susceptible to the wind driving rain into your face.

    So basically, I'm no help. :)

    So the East??? :)


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  • #151
    Benny Cake
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,144 ✭✭✭Benny Cake


    shezer wrote: »
    So the East??? :)

    East terrace is the best spot in the ground. No question.


This discussion has been closed.
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