Marriage referendum 11/2 no vote

Hulk Hands · 19-05-2015 10:19am

Was with Boyles yesterday evening. Oddscheker isn't updating Boyles prices for some reason. Currently 1/6, 7/2

efb · 21-05-2015 1:06am

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2041388

Interesting constituency betting

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-05-2015 1:53am

That constituency betting looks wild, x3.25 Y and x17 N is some places.
The poll sampling was fairly small, so they must be based on age, social-economics or urbanisation.
Without knowing the area specifics, these all offhand look like possible value, but would need investigation...

(Semi-urban/commuter areas)

CORK NORTH-WEST x3.25 if Y
GALWAY EAST x3 Y

(Semi-rural/rural)

GALWAY WEST x6.5 if N
WICKLOW X9 N
CLARE x4 N
LAOIS-OFFALY x2.1 N

Galway is going to swing both ways, so to speak...
Betfair(Sportsbook) appears to have opened too.

efb · 21-05-2015 1:57am

Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »

That constituency betting looks wild, x3.25 Y and x17 N is some places.
The poll sampling was fairly small, so they must be based on age, social-economics or urbanisation.
Without knowing the area specifics, these all offhand look like possible value, but would need investigation...

(Semi-urban/commuter areas)
CORK NORTH-WEST x3.25 if Y
GALWAY EAST x3 Y

(Semi-rural/rural)
GALWAY WEST x6.5 if N
WICKLOW X9 N
CLARE x4 N
LAOIS-OFFALY x2.1 N

Galway is going to swing both ways, so to speak...
Betfair(Sportsbook) appears to have opened too.

Galway west has the city in it.

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-05-2015 2:07am

Ah, what about CLARE x4 N, value?
Surely there's only Ennis, older folks than average and overall more rural outlook.
Have only been there once, long time ago...

efb · 21-05-2015 2:18am

Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »

Ah, what about CLARE x4 N, value?
Surely there's only Ennis, older folks than average and overall more rural outlook.
Have only been there once, long time ago...

having canvassed Offaly 50/50 split, so the no value isn't dreadful

JONJO THE MISER · 21-05-2015 2:41pm

Ok here is my bet for the referendum.
Kerry south to vote yes at 5/4 fantastic value.
Dont know what the traders are thinking here it should be at least 1/3 on.
Maybe the Dublin based trader just thinks kerry south is backward country, but it is very liberal around Killarney, kenmare and Dingle the 3 biggest towns if anything it would be kerry north-west limerick that have a better chance to vote no than kerry south.
Ive been doing political bets for years and once you do your research you can often get fantastic value, one of the best markets around for betting.

Carlos Orange · 21-05-2015 2:54pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Dont know what the traders are thinking here it should be at least 1/3 on.
Maybe the Dublin based trader just thinks kerry south is backward country

They might be factoring in that 1 of 2 TDs that have said they are voting no is from Kerry South. Probably over factoring since he only got 15% of first prefs.

JONJO THE MISER · 21-05-2015 2:59pm

Well i know the place, have friends and cousins down there and from hearing from people who canvased its about 65% to 35% around killarney and kenmare.

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-05-2015 3:19pm

Agree value to be made in some of these areas, think I can remember getting x17 years ago, for one of the Dub-South areas (can't remember the specifics) for Y on the EU referendum. Will have to search the records...

Exchange has just opened, little matched/trading on it so far, couple of pennies so far at x9.2...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118889359

Limestone1 · 21-05-2015 11:09pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Ok here is my bet for the referendum.
Kerry south to vote yes at 5/4 fantastic value.
Dont know what the traders are thinking here it should be at least 1/3 on.
Maybe the Dublin based trader just thinks kerry south is backward country, but it is very liberal around Killarney, kenmare and Dingle the 3 biggest towns if anything it would be kerry north-west limerick that have a better chance to vote no than kerry south.
Ive been doing political bets for years and once you do your research you can often get fantastic value, one of the best markets around for betting.

11/10 now ....they are listening to you

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-05-2015 11:44pm

Clare cut back also from x4 to x3.5 for the No.

Slightly more youthful population, though 88% of the populace declaring themselves as followers of the c'church, (slightly above the national average). Largest town Ennis only 27k residents (2011), fairly rural, slightly remote compared to the other big smoke(s).

BFExchange slightly hotting up, matched so far: 2,382

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-05-2015 2:10am

[ in response to duckysauce's {now deleted} random query ]

e.g. 100 on Clare (rural church going Ireland) to vote No is 350, value, simples, comprende?

The recently opened BetfairExchange market is hotting up, Matched so far: GBP 3,575...

ianburke · 22-05-2015 2:45am

Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »

e.g. 100 on Clare (rural church going Ireland) to vote No is 350, value, simples, comprende?

The recently opened BetfairExchange market is hotting up, Matched so far: GBP 3,575...

what bets did you decide on and place in the end accum?

JONJO THE MISER · 22-05-2015 2:47am

I agree was looking at Clare yesterday and could not understand the big price on a no, its mostly a rural county.

JONJO THE MISER · 22-05-2015 4:43am

Now evs yes vote Kerry South, have a nice touch on at 5/4, had to get a few people to place the bets for me.

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-05-2015 12:49pm

ianburke wrote: »

what bets did you decide on and place in the end accum?

Mainly watching with interest as unable to accum this market with other events. Was hoping for x1.5Y combo with the x6N for 'entirely risk free venture'. It did reach x1.2Y which was still low risk offsetting.

So, just went Clare and a couple of small singles as they stood out:

1. Clare No @ x4 (now 3.5)
2. Dublin South-Central @ 21.00 (Highest Yes %)
3. Dublin Central @ 26.00 = (Highest Yes %)

If certain bookies offered this event would have added the x6N on to few safe 'fourfolds from 5+' accum, as per eurokaroke etc. Fairly uncharted territory too, and don't entirely trust erasable pencil markings on ballot papers.

retalivity · 22-05-2015 1:34pm

Threw some on my own constituency Donegal SW to vote yes at 7/4 earlier, never underestimate the power of Daniel O'Donnell!

The markets seems to be gone now from PP?

ianburke · 22-05-2015 6:28pm

1/25 in running now looks like hulk was right. wont bother even voting "no" now wont make a difference

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-05-2015 7:16pm

Expecting 60% circa total turnout before end of play, so the highest ever for a referendum.
Looks like being a highly emotive one. A pencil marking battle en masse
- between the liberal yoof and the golden oldies...

Can't imagine much interest in the other one for Presidential age of 21,
read somewhere of possibility to pulling a golden bye-bye/pension in before their late 20's.

Carlos Orange · 22-05-2015 8:00pm

60% would be very high by recent referendums but the highest ever was the EEC referendum at 71%.

Icepick · 22-05-2015 8:04pm

gravehold wrote: »

This seems like very good odds I put 20 euro down

JONJO THE MISER · 22-05-2015 8:21pm

Backed over 59.5 percent yes yesterday at 5/6 not as much as my other bet but enough to have a few good nights out.

ft9 · 23-05-2015 9:55am

PP now go 1/200 on yes.
Hulk was fairly spot on

JONJO THE MISER · 23-05-2015 10:02am

Kerry south going yes so far.

Hulk Hands · 23-05-2015 12:30pm

ft9 wrote: »

PP now go 1/200 on yes.
Hulk was fairly spot on

I usually don't like people gloating when the longshot they said wouldn't win doesn't. But this isn't like in the racing forum where the horses mentioned might be bad value but still have a realistic chance. There was absolutely minuscule chance of No winning here and it was funny seeing people acting like experts, showing no gambling tact whatsoever or understanding of polls etc. Hilarious thread all in all

Icepick · 23-05-2015 12:54pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I usually don't like people gloating when the longshot they said wouldn't win doesn't. But this isn't like in the racing forum where the horses mentioned might be bad value but still have a realistic chance. There was absolutely minuscule chance of No winning here and it was funny seeing people acting like experts, showing no gambling tact whatsoever or understanding of polls etc. Hilarious thread all in all

if the odds were for yes only winning 50-55% of the vote, they would still be terrible odds but at least we could have a discussion

ianburke · 23-05-2015 1:12pm

nice few bob made here. happy out

the groutch · 23-05-2015 3:53pm

gonna be very few NO vote constituencies, bookies will be taking a hammering.

JONJO THE MISER · 23-05-2015 3:55pm

As i have said traders dont have a bloody clue when it comes to political betting, ive made a killing in the last 10 years on these markets, only lost 2 in that time.
Ladbrokes used to be the best as there traders were so bad but they dont do as many markets anymore.
Anyway thats my summer trip to the states paid for, thanks to the bookies and they wont be getting it back from me.

JONJO THE MISER · 23-05-2015 5:26pm

Its official Kerry South votes yes.
Hope some of ye backed it at 5/4.
Now for a whiskey:cool:

Icepick · 23-05-2015 9:34pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Ive been doing political bets for years and once you do your research you can often get fantastic value, one of the best markets around for betting.

indeed
the Scottish independence referendum was another great earner

efb · 24-05-2015 5:14pm

Go on the faithful!

Well done on KS John Jo

Hope PP cleaned up on the No's!

efb · 24-05-2015 5:19pm

retalivity wrote: »

Threw some on my own constituency Donegal SW to vote yes at 7/4 earlier, never underestimate the power of Daniel O'Donnell!

The markets seems to be gone now from PP?

Hope you enjoy your winnings

Marriage referendum 11/2 no vote

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