FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Rebelbrowser · 05-01-2019 11:26am

Is it just me or is it hard to square MTs daily forecast of cold and possible snow mid month with this mornings models? Very underwhelming models for those wanting sneachta...... In the next 10 days uppers hardly go negative at any stage.

Captain Snow · 05-01-2019 11:35am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Is it just me or is it hard to square MTs daily forecast of cold and possible snow mid month with this mornings models? Very underwhelming models for those wanting sneachta...... In the next 10 days uppers hardly go negative at any stage.

Wouldn't look beyond 5 days. After that anything can happen. Morning runs are usual crap then evening runs are up grades. Its all because of the SSW. The models cant handle it.

MidMan25 · 05-01-2019 11:57am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Is it just me or is it hard to square MTs daily forecast of cold and possible snow mid month with this mornings models? Very underwhelming models for those wanting sneachta...... In the next 10 days uppers hardly go negative at any stage.

Yep the models and some of the posts above.

Mortelaro · 05-01-2019 12:07pm

Mt is using intuition and a lot more model experience than most of us and tying it in with his winter forecast
He's posting more often on netweather than he used to

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1080604426870628353?s=09

YanSno · 05-01-2019 12:57pm

IMO i don't think we will have any prolonged cold spell this month With NAO expected to go positive for the next 2 weeks.

Easterly Beasterly · 05-01-2019 1:14pm

YanSno wrote: »

IMO i don't think we will have any prolonged cold spell this month With NAO expected to go positive for the next 2 weeks.

I think we will see something from about the 20th onwards! No science behind it, just a hunch.

It's based on what I've seen on the week 3/4 long range ECM and the Met UK's cold outlook for the end of the month.

JCX BXC · 05-01-2019 1:14pm

You realise it's the 5th of January right?

Some of the stages that people go through here with model watching are akin to bereavement!

nacho libre · 05-01-2019 1:14pm

YanSno wrote: »

IMO i don't think we will have any prolonged cold spell this month With NAO expected to go positive for the next 2 weeks.

That takes us to the 19th. If it trends positive for all the month then obviously you will have been right. As i keep saying until the UK Met Office abandon the idea of a cold spell towards the last week of January i remain hopeful. Also it maybe that troptical forcing along with a moderate el nino will favour blocking towards the back end of winter, irrespective of whether the effects of this SSW propgate down to the lower troposphere

snowstorm445 · 05-01-2019 2:37pm

nacho libre wrote: »

That takes us to the 19th. If it trends positive for all the month then obviously you will have been right. As i keep saying until the UK Met Office abandon the idea of a cold spell towards the last week of January i remain hopeful. Also it maybe that troptical forcing along with a moderate el nino will favour blocking towards the back end of winter, irrespective of whether the effects of this SSW propgate down to the lower troposphere

In fairness the Met Office as far as I can tell were unusually confident in a cold spell unfolding in the New Year over a fortnight ago, it’s been moved backwards now until the end of January. Before that people were suggesting something just after Christmas

There’s a pattern emerging; any cold is constantly being forecasted for 15-20 days ahead, never any closer. This has been the pattern at least since the middle of December. In fact it’s so bad that it is out of even long term model ranges, usually described as something that “will show up in the models soon”, when it has only ever cropped up sporadically in the long range.

This winter so far has been frankly unremarkable if the current pattern prevails as it has been for over a month it is going to be mild dominated overall (although not the worst in recent years considering the bizarre run of non-winters we’ve been having recently). Considering the much promised background signals and the hype that this winter in particular has generated (more so than any winter I can remember for a while) it’s particularly disappointing.

December and January in particular have been largely bland and non-wintery for many years now, which is also disappointing for me tbh, I’ve always felt them to be the best months to have snow in tbh seeing as it’s such a dark time of year.

gabeeg · 05-01-2019 4:29pm

I really don't understand the gloom around here.
There's some great model watching to be had right now. Bags of potential.

Here's the GFS. Highly unlikely to pan out exactly like this, but still

Villain · 05-01-2019 5:57pm

YanSno wrote: »

IMO i don't think we will have any prolonged cold spell this month With NAO expected to go positive for the next 2 weeks.

[ Mod Snip ] ,it doesn’t exactly look overly positive.

nao.sprd2.gif

Mod Note: Keep it civil please.

gabeeg · 05-01-2019 6:01pm

384 on the 12z

YanSno · 05-01-2019 6:06pm

Villain wrote: »

B] Mod Snip [/B, and it doesn’t exactly look overly positive.

Thank you for posting the chart. Mean line looks positive close to neutral with AO negative More of a North westerly flow with HP sitting South / South West of Ireland

gabeeg · 05-01-2019 6:06pm

GFS has a cold westerly on the 16th bringing snow

Defaulter1831 · 05-01-2019 6:48pm

For me it's like many 5th January when it's settled and relatively mild. FI remains 5-7 days, approximately, and after that anything can happen, regardless of the SSW impacting.

Villain · 05-01-2019 7:36pm

The GEFS Mean is certainly trending down in FI

sdanseo · 05-01-2019 7:50pm

gabeeg wrote: »

GFS has a cold westerly on the 16th bringing snow

If it snowed every time GFS suggested it, we'd have the coldest climate in Western Europe :pac:

gabeeg · 05-01-2019 8:10pm

The ECM is crappy

sdanseo · 05-01-2019 8:48pm

Interesting 12Z ECM. HP sends cold air spinning from Iceland to France in a nice circular motion avoiding us completely.
Then next weekend temps down to -4 at 850hpa, 4 degrees more or so needed there.

In deep FI signs of what the GFS showed, cold incursion from due West...but that seems incredibly unlikely.

I would post pics from Weather US but they have gone from no ads to adverts on steroids (even through adblock) over the last few months. Premium version is disappointingly expensive.

Meteorite58 · 05-01-2019 9:03pm

Just looking at that too sdanseo. Been showing that pattern for next weekend for a couple of runs now. Would imagine better chance of getting cold W / NW'lys than E'lys atm. Some strong winds showing up there too , would be very cold windchill and probably wintry on high ground , possible hail and thunder thrown into the mix also if it were to verify. The West best chance of snow on elevated ground perhaps. Those cold uppers usually get modified somewhat over the long fetch across the Atlantic but interesting nonetheless , could do with a bit of a shake up. Looks a lot different to what we have been experiencing the last couple of weeks for sure.

Sycamore Tree · 05-01-2019 9:06pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Just looking at that too sdanseo. Been showing that pattern for next weekend for a couple of runs now. Would imagine better chance of getting cold NW'lys than E'lys atm. Some strong winds showing up there too , would be very cold windchill and probably wintry on high ground , possible hail and thunder thrown into the mix also if it were to verify. The West best chance of snow on elevated ground perhaps. Those cold uppers usually get modified somewhat over the long fetch across the Atlantic but interesting nonetheless , could do with a bit of a shake up. Looks a lot different to what we have been experiencing the last couple of weeks for sure.

Music to my ears Meteorite!! I have just been waiting for someone to finally say the magic words "on higher ground". I will be up on the Connemara hills as soon as I see white gold. I plan to do Rocky IV style training this winter!

Nabber · 06-01-2019 3:46am

Scanning some of the ensembles for some FI material.
Edit: These don't show the same run or time. One is perb 14 (top) +348hrs the bottom is perb (20) +300hrs
Just in case some folks are unsure.

sdanseo · 06-01-2019 4:13am

Nabber wrote: »

Scanning some of the ensembles for some FI material.
Edit: These don't show the same run or time. One is perb 14 (top) +348hrs the bottom is perb (20) +300hrs
Just in case some folks are unsure.

Just imagining if they were to come off and be at the same time.

The word "snowicane" would be invented. You read it here first.

Edit: aww, no you didn't. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_25%E2%80%9327,_2010_North_American_blizzard
(point of note, that gave 135cm of snow in the USA at just 972mb deepest pressure :pac: )

RobertKK · 06-01-2019 4:10pm

On the weekly forecast on the BBC, they finished with a look ahead to what is expected to happen from next weekend.
They said the jet stream starts heading south, as it passes over the UK it will bring unsettled weather and it’s possible some wintry weather.
But the main thing was the jet stream is going to start moving south from the north of us. If it keeps moving south the floodgates for the cold would be wide open.

pauldry · 06-01-2019 5:07pm

Ya its looking more active from next weekend too so looking at satellite at least wont be as boring.

Looking at average temperatures on Met Eireann website most stations have been milder than average for the best part of a month and it is only logical that some colder weather is now imminent to offset this.

sdanseo · 06-01-2019 5:56pm

RobertKK wrote: »

On the weekly forecast on the BBC, they finished with a look ahead to what is expected to happen from next weekend.
They said the jet stream starts heading south, as it passes over the UK it will bring unsettled weather and it’s possible some wintry weather.
But the main thing was the jet stream is going to start moving south from the north of us. If it keeps moving south the floodgates for the cold would be wide open.

A northerly flowing (N->S) jet stream over western and Central Europe (see charts posted by meteorite and myself above) is no use to us.

Omega blocking keeps the cold well at bay.

If the jet is to move south, we need it to do so entirely well to the south of us, but in a generally westerly flow.

Mortelaro · 06-01-2019 6:16pm

sdanseo wrote: »

A northerly flowing (N->S) jet stream over western and Central Europe (see charts posted by meteorite and myself above) is no use to us.

Omega blocking keeps the cold well at bay.

If the jet is to move south, we need it to do so entirely well to the south of us, but in a generally westerly flow.

Yes last march the jet was into Morocco and the med
A u shaped jet would promote a Euro high,commonly known on weather fora as a Bartlett which would bring a very mild spell to Ireland

Today is the 6th of January, let's see what modeis have on the 16th which is a week before the last week of January ,the time frame generally touted as a turning point
It will still be FI but pointers on any strat impact will be a lot clearer
One thing is probable now though and that is,it's going to be a different impact to last February but will it be cold or severe?

YanSno · 06-01-2019 8:20pm

CFS is forecasting for a cold February, taking it with a pinch of salt but signals are there. With blocking to the north. I think around the beginning of February we could be looking at something quite cold coming from the north east.

gabeeg · 07-01-2019 4:35pm

Check out the CFS daily for the craic

I know, I know, I know.

gabeeg · 07-01-2019 4:55pm

I figured out how to hack the meteociel gif maker to produce longer gifs, if anyone's interested

Comhrá · 07-01-2019 5:02pm

gabeeg wrote: »

I figured out how to hack the meteociel gif maker to produce longer gifs, if anyone's interested

Oops! Expect a visit from the Internet Police soon.

gabeeg · 07-01-2019 5:04pm

they'll never take me alive

Rebelbrowser · 07-01-2019 5:22pm

gabeeg wrote: »

Check out the CFS daily for the craic

I know, I know, I know.

Just did. As Don McLean put it, "February made me shiver...."

gabeeg · 07-01-2019 6:23pm

Ok, so to create longer gifs on meteociel, you just follow these steps.
I'm using Chrome on a Mac, but it should be very similar on PC

1. Open the gif-maker

2. Right click and hit inspect. This brings up the dev tools window.

3. Click the selection tool, and then select the dropdown menu next to 'Encheance debut'

4. Expand the element you've selected in the dev tool window, and change the value to 6 (as in hours).

5. All done. Just hit the generate button

You should get something like this

Easterly Beasterly · 07-01-2019 11:27pm

Latest ECMWF Weekly increases the chances of a cold spell.

It's been very consistent with this!

Mortelaro · 07-01-2019 11:44pm

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

Latest ECMWF Weekly increases the chances of a cold spell.

It's been very consistent with this!

You're getting better at this;)

Modeling of the strat is supposed to be less chaotic and more reliable than the trop and latterly the gfs is showing downwelling right into the trop
Shiver me timbers for what that could mean

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1082302112090996737?s=19

nacho libre · 08-01-2019 12:01am

The GFS is just playing catch up with the Glosea5 model;)

hatrickpatrick · 08-01-2019 1:48pm

6z FV3 is a massive upgrade, let's see if the 12z can follow:

Some incredible GEFS members as well - GFS finally picking up on what's been happening in the strat?

gabeeg · 08-01-2019 3:23pm

Not just cold according to the ECM long-term anomalies, but a fair bit of precipitation around too

Villain · 08-01-2019 6:05pm

These are at the very end of Fantasy Island so posting them purely for fun! If I tweeted them I'm sure the media would cause a bread shortage

Andrew00 · 08-01-2019 6:07pm

Stunning

squarecircles · 08-01-2019 6:33pm

looks like the gfs is starting to finally react to the SSW.
the minus 10 850 hpa spilling down over the uk and ireland as the high out in the atlantic ridges up to greenland.

sryanbruen · 08-01-2019 7:13pm

GEFS 12z looking cool.....

YanSno · 08-01-2019 8:34pm

Had a look at the latest NAO, Some members (outliner) really going for negative territory by the end January. Trend downwards anyway, with AO also on the negative side. That would bring a very cold weather from the north east with blocking on the the Artic and north Atlantic. Very long way off though

konman · 08-01-2019 9:09pm

The ECM, GFS and GEM all look very similar at T240 unless I'm reading them wrong. Not often that happens.

hatrickpatrick · 09-01-2019 7:03am

The overnight GFS hasn't been as good, but in my view it should be ignored as the FV3 wasn't run yesterday due to the government shutdown in the US. So all we have GFS-wise is the outdated version of the model, IMO not much use without the new one to compare. Hopefully they'll be able to switch the FV3 back on ASAP!

sryanbruen · 09-01-2019 6:02pm

The "World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model" - IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF) - is now live.

The model will be the first hourly-updating weather model that is able to predict something as small as a thunderstorm virtually anywhere on the planet.

The data to the charts is not publicly available and it probably won't be.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1083028560355282945

wing52 · 09-01-2019 6:06pm

I'd love to see what the subscription fees are! 200k for the ecm.

gabeeg · 09-01-2019 6:06pm

Not publicly available

sdanseo · 09-01-2019 7:08pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

The overnight GFS hasn't been as good, but in my view it should be ignored as the FV3 wasn't run yesterday due to the government shutdown in the US. So all we have GFS-wise is the outdated version of the model, IMO not much use without the new one to compare. Hopefully they'll be able to switch the FV3 back on ASAP!

Strange:

US Department of Commerce wrote:

https://www.commerce.gov/news/blog/2018/12/shutdown-due-lapse-congressional-appropriations

In compliance with the restrictions of the Antideficiency Act, the Department of Commerce will maintain the following services and activities during a lapse in appropriations:

Weather, water, and climate observing, prediction, forecast, warning and support

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST