The decline continues

An Ciarraioch · 18-01-2019 8:17pm

JTMan wrote: »

The latest ABCA UK newspapers in Ireland numbers are here. 10% YoY decline. The decline continues.

Separately, anyone any thoughts on what happens to these UK newspapers, well the ones that are imported, post a hard Brexit? Will distribution continue?

Most have Irish subsidiaries, anyway, so very few that come directly from the UK, I'd have thought?

JTMan · 18-01-2019 8:22pm

Yeah, some are locally printed but the Guardian, FT, Express, Telegraph and others are imported from the UK. What happens to their distribution post Brexit?

Prince William · 18-01-2019 8:48pm

Why were the newspapers exempt from the vat increase? Actually why were they included in the 2011 reduction in the first place?

L1011 · 18-01-2019 10:11pm

Guardian is printed in NI rather than GB, dunno about the others. That may result in a different outcome depending what fudges are done for NI

Its not like there isn't plenty of print capacity here in Citywest and Cork if required! FTs paper stock may be an issue.

Who actually buys the Express in Ireland anyway? Or Telegraph for that matter.

IRE60 · 20-01-2019 2:27pm

And don't forget as well.... The Daily Star, Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday print here in the Republic and ship daily editions to N.I. So, it's a two way street.

And more - last count 2,031 people buy the Express every day. Indeed, who are they - show yourselves!

Loafing Oaf · 20-01-2019 2:36pm

Irish Daily Mail really in free fall, even by the current standards of the market. I remember asking a few years how Mail HQ could justify pouring money into an Irish edition when all it could manage saleswise was hold steady at 50K. They'd kill for 50K circulation now...

Prince William · 20-01-2019 3:32pm

Newspapers need to go back to offering free stuff inside, in the 00s it was CDs & Dvds, I'm sure they could do a modern twist on that.

JTMan · 20-01-2019 8:14pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Irish Daily Mail really in free fall, even by the current standards of the market.

4,806 people stopped buying the Irish Daily Mail over the last year. 14% drop YoY. Freefall is probably an accurate word. The question is at what stage will the UK publications stop their Irish bubble wrapping?

Newspapers need to go back to offering free stuff inside, in the 00s it was CDs & Dvds, I'm sure they could do a modern twist on that.

Supermarket vouchers seems to be the modern day equivalent.

dohboy · 21-01-2019 1:31am

The Mail's price has gone up by 40c in the last 18 months. I guess that insulates it from the sales collapse.

Loafing Oaf · 21-01-2019 10:56am

dohboy wrote: »

The Mail's price has gone up by 40c in the last 18 months. I guess that insulates it from the sales collapse.

Hadn't noticed that. My Dad still buys it, mostly for the sudoku I think!:p

IRE60 · 21-01-2019 11:19am

Just for a bit of clarity and I’m not normally jumping to the defense of any particular title!

The Daily Mail’s circulation has to be looked at with a view on a policy change on their behalf - in 2018 their titles no longer carry ‘bulks’ which would have tallied about 6,000 copies per day – that’s why their circulation (in the main) is showing a double digit decline.

Likewise the meteoric rise in circulation of the Times (IRE edition) comes mainly from their adoption of bulks in 2018 whereas they did not use them in 2017.

doublej · 22-01-2019 7:42am

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Hadn't noticed that. My Dad still buys it, mostly for the sudoku I think!:p

With regards to price and decline, the July 2017 Circulation for Irish Daily Mail stood at 40127, of which 842 were made available in N.I.The remaining 39,285 copies included 4,729 bulks.The RSP for Mon-Fri was €1.20 and the Saturday edition was €1.40.
Using the figures supplied by ABC to breakdown the M-F and Saturday sales, the total (VAT at 9% included) sales income for a one week(6 day) cycle in July 2017 was €256k.This is 34,273x€1.20x5 and 35,973x€1.40x1.

The Dec 2018 figures show Circulation of 29,441, of which 744 were N.I..The total sales in ROI were 28,697.There were no bulks.RSP was €1.60M-F and €1.80 Saturday.The total income for a 6day cycle in Dec 2018 was €271,418 on sales M-F of 28,327 and Sat 30,179.

What this shows is that even though there has been a 16.95% decline in sales in ROI, (26.63% decline in the bulk included Circulation figures), the income generated by the increase in cover price allowed for an actual improvement of 6% in weekly revenue when comparing Dec 18 to July 17.
It’s not correct to suggest that the decline in circulation of the IDM is primarily due to the discontinuation of bulks.
The total decline was 10,686 of which 10,588 were in the Republic.Only 4,729 of this decline were bulks, the remaining 5,859 were readers that had previously paid €1.20/€1.40 but were not willing to continue to buy the paper at a 40cent additional cost.
No doubt, there can be a variety of reasons for discontinuation of purchase( including death), but the inability of the publishers to migrate any appreciable cohort of bulk readers over to becoming paying consumers is remarkable.

L1011 · 22-01-2019 9:04am

Many bulks are either simply not read, or are left in common areas and possibly skimmed by large volumes of people who would not buy the paper at all

With no JNRS I don't see it as worth trying to claim those readers anymore

We get some in work - they may be skimmed on weekdays and they may as well be delivered to the recycle bin on Saturday

Loafing Oaf · 22-01-2019 1:51pm

doublej wrote: »

No doubt, there can be a variety of reasons for discontinuation of purchase( including death), but the inability of the publishers to migrate any appreciable cohort of bulk readers over to becoming paying consumers is remarkable.

I also find it somewhat surprising that papers have been able to jack up their prices so much apparently without significantly hitting circulation. It's given them a bit of room for maneuver amid the the current catastrophe. Although most seem to have taken this tactic as far as it can go: IIRC Irish Times and Indo haven't raised cover price in a while?

Prince William · 22-01-2019 2:00pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I also find it somewhat surprising that papers have been able to jack up their prices so much apparently without significantly hitting circulation. It's given them a bit of room for maneuver amid the the current catastrophe. Although most seem to have taken this tactic as far as it can go: IIRC Irish Times and Indo haven't raised cover price in a while?

The indo went up 20 cent a few weeks ago

Loafing Oaf · 22-01-2019 2:08pm

Prince William wrote: »

The indo went up 20 cent a few weeks ago

Oh right, I shouldn't be guessing at these things.:p

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-01-2019 2:40pm

The one thing that may save the print (news media) is large flexible screens.

e.g. If offered the choice between reading newspaper 'x' on an average 10" iPad screen
or a fresh free crispy newspaper to peruse, the newspaper wins hands down as an 'interface'.

Still a couple of years away yet, but a roll-up large screen might actually improve on traditional media.

Muahahaha · 22-01-2019 3:34pm

Prince William wrote: »

Why were the newspapers exempt from the vat increase? Actually why were they included in the 2011 reduction in the first place?

Cos Denis O'Brien. State owned AIB also gave Independent News & Media a €110m debt write off, literally taking taxpayers for mugs to pay his debts while he is a tax exile. Denis always gets preferable treatment when FG are in power and in return FG get favourable media coverage. And if journalists don't tow the line Denis will send them a legal letter-

Seamus Dooley of the National Union of Journalists has told RTE R1’s Drivetime that since 1998 Denis O’Brien has taken out 70 separate legal actions against Irish journalists/media outlets.

https://www.broadsheet.ie/2011/11/04/a-boy-named-sue/

Free media me arse when you've a billionaire tax exile threatening journalists with being personally sued.

IRE60 · 23-01-2019 1:09pm

doublej wrote: »

With regards to price and decline, the July 2017 Circulation for Irish Daily Mail stood at 40127, of which 842 were made available in N.I.The remaining 39,285 copies included 4,729 bulks.The RSP for Mon-Fri was €1.20 and the Saturday edition was €1.40.
Using the figures supplied by ABC to breakdown the M-F and Saturday sales, the total (VAT at 9% included) sales income for a one week(6 day) cycle in July 2017 was €256k.This is 34,273x€1.20x5 and 35,973x€1.40x1.

The Dec 2018 figures show Circulation of 29,441, of which 744 were N.I..The total sales in ROI were 28,697.There were no bulks.RSP was €1.60M-F and €1.80 Saturday.The total income for a 6day cycle in Dec 2018 was €271,418 on sales M-F of 28,327 and Sat 30,179.

What this shows is that even though there has been a 16.95% decline in sales in ROI, (26.63% decline in the bulk included Circulation figures), the income generated by the increase in cover price allowed for an actual improvement of 6% in weekly revenue when comparing Dec 18 to July 17.
It’s not correct to suggest that the decline in circulation of the IDM is primarily due to the discontinuation of bulks.
The total decline was 10,686 of which 10,588 were in the Republic.Only 4,729 of this decline were bulks, the remaining 5,859 were readers that had previously paid €1.20/€1.40 but were not willing to continue to buy the paper at a 40cent additional cost.
No doubt, there can be a variety of reasons for discontinuation of purchase( including death), but the inability of the publishers to migrate any appreciable cohort of bulk readers over to becoming paying consumers is remarkable.

Correct, circulation decline comes from many avenues – price sensitivity being one, online migration etc.

My point was that it’s not correct to blame ‘all’ of the declines the Daily and Sunday titles are showing to ‘market forces’ – like their price increase.

In fact, if you strip out the bulks that both titles carried in December ’17 to bring it back to hand in pocket sales and compare it to the same metric in ’18 both the daily and Sunday are showing a 6% decline in core sales – with no smoke and mirrors in the circulation dep.

Given that the overall market is back -10%, you could reasonably argue that they are outperforming the market – given that it’s a declining one in the first place.

I await with relish to see what the Indo titles get up to with bulks when their numbers are out next month – have they been under pressure to increase the bulks?

JTMan · 24-01-2019 7:57pm

Ireland's last evening newspaper is no longer. The Evening Echo is to rebrand as The Echo ... https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/corks-evening-echo-newspaper-to-be-rebranded-the-echo-as-part-of-developing-offerings-in-print-and-online-899902.html

An Ciarraioch · 24-01-2019 8:24pm

JTMan wrote: »

Ireland's last evening newspaper is no longer. The Evening Echo is to rebrand as The Echo ... https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/corks-evening-echo-newspaper-to-be-rebranded-the-echo-as-part-of-developing-offerings-in-print-and-online-899902.html

AFAIK, it hasn't exactly been a great success for the Herald?

JTMan · 24-01-2019 8:35pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

AFAIK, it hasn't exactly been a great success for the Herald?

Total disaster for circulation for The Herald. Circulation was 31,946 for Jan to June 2018. It was 58,826 in 2012 when it was the Evening Herald. Back in 1999 the circulation was 110,500. Circulation is down circa 75% in the last 20 years.

Loafing Oaf · 24-01-2019 8:38pm

JTMan wrote: »

Ireland's last evening newspaper is no longer. The Evening Echo is to rebrand as The Echo ... https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/corks-evening-echo-newspaper-to-be-rebranded-the-echo-as-part-of-developing-offerings-in-print-and-online-899902.html

Maybe part of a broader plan to make the Examiner a full-on national paper and have the Echo fill the Munster-centric gap created as a result.

BarryD2 · 24-01-2019 8:43pm

The newspaper & magazine publishers (which include some pretty large publishers as well as smaller entities) got a pretty sweet deal in Budget 2018. Not only do they retain the 9% VAT rate and therefore a higher return on print material, but 'e-newspapers' & 'e-magazines' have been reduced from 23% VAT to 9%, giving a decent extra margin assuming they don't reduce their retail prices on same.

JTMan · 24-01-2019 8:47pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Maybe part of a broader plan to make the Examiner a full-on national paper and have the Echo fill the Munster-centric gap created as a result.

It's a cost cutting ploy. Not a national ploy.

The Irish Times save on distribution and printing costs. Newspread are now going to do the distribution.

Loafing Oaf · 24-01-2019 8:52pm

JTMan wrote: »

It's a cost cutting ploy. Not a national ploy.

The Irish Times save on distribution and printing costs. Newspread are now going to do the distribution.

Okay, makes sense. Although I still not sure the IT's overall move to buy Landmark does...

IRE60 · 25-01-2019 11:03am

BarryD2 wrote: »

The newspaper & magazine publishers (which include some pretty large publishers as well as smaller entities) got a pretty sweet deal in Budget 2018. Not only do they retain the 9% VAT rate and therefore a higher return on print material, but 'e-newspapers' & 'e-magazines' have been reduced from 23% VAT to 9%, giving a decent extra margin assuming they don't reduce their retail prices on same.

Don't see it as a 'sweet deal' - 9% is high in comparison with other EU member states. Our nearest neighbor, the UK, has a 0% VAT rate.

The differences between the print VAT rate and digital rates had to be addressed in order to equalise them.

Mid last year, Timmy Dooley TD, did make a stab at trying to tackle the VAT and restrictions on some Media in comparison to the wild west rules of some of the online businesses. I wouldn't be in complete agreement with some of the propositions but it was a start!

IRE60 · 25-01-2019 11:13am

JTMan wrote: »

Ireland's last evening newspaper is no longer. The Evening Echo is to rebrand as The Echo ... https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/corks-evening-echo-newspaper-to-be-rebranded-the-echo-as-part-of-developing-offerings-in-print-and-online-899902.html

Why are publishers crowding the morning market! The Herald is a classic example of what happens moving an evening to the morning shelf. And I appreciate that, in this era, it's not efficient to distribute two times a day.

Are the 9k odd people who buy the Echo also Examiner buyers? if so, we're in for a bit of cannibalism.

BarryD2 · 25-01-2019 3:15pm

IRE60 wrote: »

Don't see it as a 'sweet deal' - 9% is high in comparison with other EU member states.

It is a sweet deal - everyone else who was at the 9% rate got hiked back up to 13.5%. What makes the newspaper lobby so powerful? Oh well, let's see - they can slant a light one way or another on our political masters......

IRE60 · 25-01-2019 3:33pm

BarryD2 wrote: »

It is a sweet deal - everyone else who was at the 9% rate got hiked back up to 13.5%. What makes the newspaper lobby so powerful? Oh well, let's see - they can slant a light one way or another on our political masters......

Yea - maybe the lobby is powerful - good for them! 9% it is!

Edit: The coffers will get about €25m from vat on newspaper this year. On the other hand RTE will receive €186m in license fees - where's the balance there

Blanchguy · 25-01-2019 4:43pm

Well when the increase was imposed, the newspaper had some claim to being on their knees, the hotel industry, not so much.

dulpit · 25-01-2019 4:51pm

IRE60 wrote: »

Are the 9k odd people who buy the Echo also Examiner buyers? if so, we're in for a bit of cannibalism.

Probably not, the echo is much more local news, if you want to know what's going on in the world you wouldn't read it. But if you want to know what's going on locally you wouldn't get that in the examiner.

IRE60 · 25-01-2019 7:30pm

dulpit wrote: »

Probably not, the echo is much more local news, if you want to know what's going on in the world you wouldn't read it. But if you want to know what's going on locally you wouldn't get that in the examiner.

Does the world not begin and end in the People's Republic of Cork!?

BarryD2 · 26-01-2019 4:22pm

Blanchguy wrote: »

Well when the increase was imposed, the newspaper had some claim to being on their knees, the hotel industry, not so much.

On their knees?: Independent News & Media?? Rupert Murdoch?? etc etc etc. Remember the VAT rate applies to all the British publishers than sell their wares here - for the moment anyway. Look down the magazine rack of any decent sized newsagent - dominated by publishers from UK and elsewhere.

JTMan · 04-02-2019 7:22pm

Great Washington Post article about the destruction of the local newspaper industry in the states.

Loafing Oaf · 08-02-2019 11:17am

https://www.rte.ie/news/courts/2019/0206/1027901-denis-obrien-courts/

Wonder could the SBP's future be jeopardised if the DOB defamation case goes against them.

JTMan · 08-02-2019 12:19pm

The owner of the SBP put the paper under a 4 month review as to it's future recently. No news on the outcome of the review yet.

IRE60 · 09-02-2019 2:38pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/courts/2019/0206/1027901-denis-obrien-courts/

Wonder could the SBP's future be jeopardised if the DOB defamation case goes against them.

They should give DOB his own seat on the Golden Arches! All depends on the level of damages (if any). Remember, DOB scalped the Mirror for 750k - I doubt SBP could take a hit like that.

JTMan · 09-02-2019 2:49pm

Kilcullen, who now owns the SBP, can afford a 750k hit! That is if he is willing to pump more capital into Post Publications.

Loafing Oaf · 09-02-2019 2:57pm

IRE60 wrote: »

They should give DOB his own seat on the Golden Arches! All depends on the level of damages (if any). Remember, DOB scalped the Mirror for 750k - I doubt SBP could take a hit like that.

His lawyers told the jury they should award Mr O'Brien substantial damages to reflect the seriousness of allegations made in a number of articles in the newspaper almost four years ago.

They also claimed the articles were published maliciously and presented in a lurid way and the jurors should also award aggravated damages as a result.

I guess there's no way of knowing what these terms might mean in pounds, shillings and pence unless and until the case goes DOB's way...

L1011 · 09-02-2019 10:37pm

I can only but wish for a Reynolds-grade award - either the original or the appeal!

JTMan · 21-02-2019 4:43pm

Irish Newspaper Circulation July-Dec 2018 Island of Ireland Report published.

10% YoY declines. The journey into the sunset for newspapers continues.

Great analysis by iLevel.ie here.

An Ciarraioch · 21-02-2019 5:39pm

Are regional titles showing similar declines, or does the comparative scarcity of digital alternatives insulate them?

JTMan · 21-02-2019 6:04pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Are regional titles showing similar declines, or does the comparative scarcity of digital alternatives insulate them?

The vast majority of regionals are not ABC audited anymore. One exception is the Evening Echo which showed a 9% decline YoY.

Regionals are hurting too.

IRE60 · 21-02-2019 6:50pm

Timmy Dooley in his submission 'A Policy To Sustain High Quality Journalism In Irish Public Life' cites that:

'National Newspaper circulation is down 50% over the past 10 years, and down 35% for local newspapers'

I don't know where he gets his figures - but the 50% for nationals is correct - so one could reasonably argue that his 35% is from a decent source also

IRE60 · 21-02-2019 7:08pm

I just can’t understand the duplicity involved here. The Irish Times go to great lengths to extrapolate the ROI numbers only (even though it’s called the Island of Ireland Report) in the following paragraph - which is online here

"The Irish Daily Star sells 39,039 copies in the Republic, down 10 per cent, while the Irish Daily Mail’s circulation south of the Border was 29,654, down 19 per cent. The Irish Sun had sales of 52,121 in the Republic, down 8 per cent year on year, while the Irish Daily Mirror’s circulation was 28,632, down 11 per cent"

However, they quote their own sales as a combined digital and print – but never actually mention the print figure which is 58,131.

Furthermore, when quoting their numbers they don’t extend the courtesy they extended to the other papers by shaving 2,300 from their own number as those sales occur in Northern Ireland.

So for clarity - their newspaper sales n the Republic are in fact 41,337 - stripping out NI and bulks from their Circulation.

L1011 · 21-02-2019 7:20pm

Adding print and digital subscriptions is disingenuous too as most delivery customers are also digital subs. These will be double counted

JTMan · 21-02-2019 7:48pm

A few thought on the ABC numbers ...

-> 26,652 is just not a sustainable number for the SBP. The new owner has said that he might end the print run. Surely, this number only increases the likelihood of that.
-> The Heralds numbers are catastrophic. 17% decline YoY. They heavily discounted the paper to 50 cent in several major supermarket chains and this seems to have made little difference.
-> The Irish Daily Star was just about profitable before the latest drop. More cuts will be needed to keep its head above water.
-> With Brexit a few weeks away - The Guardian (and similar scale) must be thinking is it worthwhile paying the tariffs to export to Ireland anymore.
-> Really difficult to tell what will give next but The Irish Daily Star, Sunday World, Examiner and Herald surely have a matter of years left before the inevitable.

IRE60 · 21-02-2019 8:11pm

I'd be of the opinion that INM will throw the Daly Star under the bus before the Herald - wrongly IMO.

The tariffs they are an unknown quantity but only hit a few publications on the face of it. The Sunday Times prints the Mag in Bligty and ships it over on a Wednesday - thats going to be interesting. Likewise the DS and DM throw papers across the border every night - whats the deal there?
SBP - thats a strange one - little or no movement in the digital subs and for a paper with a digital future!

Loafing Oaf · 21-02-2019 8:28pm

JTMan wrote: »

A few thought on the ABC numbers ...

-> 26,652 is just not a sustainable number for the SBP. The new owner has said that he might end the print run. Surely, this number only increases the likelihood of that.

Especially if it coincides with a right cleaning out in the DOB defamation trial. One might think...

The decline continues

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