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The decline continues

IRE60

Via the Campaign site - report on the worsening state of print. (Cant find it on Neilsons' site). Some of the budget cuts are savage:

Newspaper revenues fall amid talk of joint ad sales

The national newspaper advertising slump has worsened since the Brexit vote, with revenues crashing 18% year on year in August, making it the worst-performing month of the year so far.

Print ad sales dived 14%, or £95m, in the first eight months of the year to £575m from £670m in the same period a year ago, according to Nielsen.

Newspapers got a brief respite around the Brexit referendum, when ad sales fell only 4.5% in June and 11% in July. Every other month this year has seen a fall of at least 14%.

The newspaper print ad market fell 13% in 2015 and 9% in 2014.

A number of high-profile brands abruptly slashed their print ad expenditure in favour of Facebook and other digital channels.

Tesco cut spend by 85% year on year in the first eight months of 2016 to £1.8m, O2 reduced its outlay on print ads by 45% to £4m and Marks & Spencer dropped its spend by 28% to £7m.

Worsening revenues will add to pressure on newspaper owners to consider pooling their ad sales in a single sales house in order to gain scale in their negotiations with media agencies, improve efficiency and cut costs.

News UK, Trinity Mirror, Telegraph Media Group, Guardian Media Group, DMGT and Northern & Shell have been in talks since at least May, when Campaign first reported that discussions had begun.

Steve Booth, chairman of MC&C and co-founder of BLM, has been leading the initiative, dubbed Project Juno.

Newspapers are understood to have commissioned Enders Analysis and lawyers to report on how a joint ad sales house might work and the likely obstacles emerging from a Competition

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An Ciarraioch

JTMan wrote: »

The latest ABCA UK newspapers in Ireland numbers are here. 10% YoY decline. The decline continues.

Separately, anyone any thoughts on what happens to these UK newspapers, well the ones that are imported, post a hard Brexit? Will distribution continue?

Most have Irish subsidiaries, anyway, so very few that come directly from the UK, I'd have thought?

JTMan

Yeah, some are locally printed but the Guardian, FT, Express, Telegraph and others are imported from the UK. What happens to their distribution post Brexit?

Prince William

Why were the newspapers exempt from the vat increase? Actually why were they included in the 2011 reduction in the first place?

L1011

Guardian is printed in NI rather than GB, dunno about the others. That may result in a different outcome depending what fudges are done for NI

Its not like there isn't plenty of print capacity here in Citywest and Cork if required! FTs paper stock may be an issue.

Who actually buys the Express in Ireland anyway? Or Telegraph for that matter.

IRE60

And don't forget as well.... The Daily Star, Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday print here in the Republic and ship daily editions to N.I. So, it's a two way street.

And more - last count 2,031 people buy the Express every day. Indeed, who are they - show yourselves!

Loafing Oaf

Irish Daily Mail really in free fall, even by the current standards of the market. I remember asking a few years how Mail HQ could justify pouring money into an Irish edition when all it could manage saleswise was hold steady at 50K. They'd kill for 50K circulation now...

Prince William

Newspapers need to go back to offering free stuff inside, in the 00s it was CDs & Dvds, I'm sure they could do a modern twist on that.

JTMan

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Irish Daily Mail really in free fall, even by the current standards of the market.

4,806 people stopped buying the Irish Daily Mail over the last year. 14% drop YoY. Freefall is probably an accurate word. The question is at what stage will the UK publications stop their Irish bubble wrapping?

Newspapers need to go back to offering free stuff inside, in the 00s it was CDs & Dvds, I'm sure they could do a modern twist on that.

Supermarket vouchers seems to be the modern day equivalent.

dohboy

The Mail's price has gone up by 40c in the last 18 months. I guess that insulates it from the sales collapse.

Loafing Oaf

dohboy wrote: »

The Mail's price has gone up by 40c in the last 18 months. I guess that insulates it from the sales collapse.

Hadn't noticed that. My Dad still buys it, mostly for the sudoku I think!:p

IRE60

Just for a bit of clarity and I’m not normally jumping to the defense of any particular title!

The Daily Mail’s circulation has to be looked at with a view on a policy change on their behalf - in 2018 their titles no longer carry ‘bulks’ which would have tallied about 6,000 copies per day – that’s why their circulation (in the main) is showing a double digit decline.

Likewise the meteoric rise in circulation of the Times (IRE edition) comes mainly from their adoption of bulks in 2018 whereas they did not use them in 2017.

doublej

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Hadn't noticed that. My Dad still buys it, mostly for the sudoku I think!:p

With regards to price and decline, the July 2017 Circulation for Irish Daily Mail stood at 40127, of which 842 were made available in N.I.The remaining 39,285 copies included 4,729 bulks.The RSP for Mon-Fri was €1.20 and the Saturday edition was €1.40.
Using the figures supplied by ABC to breakdown the M-F and Saturday sales, the total (VAT at 9% included) sales income for a one week(6 day) cycle in July 2017 was €256k.This is 34,273x€1.20x5 and 35,973x€1.40x1.

The Dec 2018 figures show Circulation of 29,441, of which 744 were N.I..The total sales in ROI were 28,697.There were no bulks.RSP was €1.60M-F and €1.80 Saturday.The total income for a 6day cycle in Dec 2018 was €271,418 on sales M-F of 28,327 and Sat 30,179.

What this shows is that even though there has been a 16.95% decline in sales in ROI, (26.63% decline in the bulk included Circulation figures), the income generated by the increase in cover price allowed for an actual improvement of 6% in weekly revenue when comparing Dec 18 to July 17.
It’s not correct to suggest that the decline in circulation of the IDM is primarily due to the discontinuation of bulks.
The total decline was 10,686 of which 10,588 were in the Republic.Only 4,729 of this decline were bulks, the remaining 5,859 were readers that had previously paid €1.20/€1.40 but were not willing to continue to buy the paper at a 40cent additional cost.
No doubt, there can be a variety of reasons for discontinuation of purchase( including death), but the inability of the publishers to migrate any appreciable cohort of bulk readers over to becoming paying consumers is remarkable.

L1011

Many bulks are either simply not read, or are left in common areas and possibly skimmed by large volumes of people who would not buy the paper at all

With no JNRS I don't see it as worth trying to claim those readers anymore

We get some in work - they may be skimmed on weekdays and they may as well be delivered to the recycle bin on Saturday

Loafing Oaf

doublej wrote: »

No doubt, there can be a variety of reasons for discontinuation of purchase( including death), but the inability of the publishers to migrate any appreciable cohort of bulk readers over to becoming paying consumers is remarkable.

I also find it somewhat surprising that papers have been able to jack up their prices so much apparently without significantly hitting circulation. It's given them a bit of room for maneuver amid the the current catastrophe. Although most seem to have taken this tactic as far as it can go: IIRC Irish Times and Indo haven't raised cover price in a while?

Prince William

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I also find it somewhat surprising that papers have been able to jack up their prices so much apparently without significantly hitting circulation. It's given them a bit of room for maneuver amid the the current catastrophe. Although most seem to have taken this tactic as far as it can go: IIRC Irish Times and Indo haven't raised cover price in a while?

The indo went up 20 cent a few weeks ago

Loafing Oaf

Prince William wrote: »

The indo went up 20 cent a few weeks ago

Oh right, I shouldn't be guessing at these things.:p

4068ac1elhodqr

The one thing that may save the print (news media) is large flexible screens.

e.g. If offered the choice between reading newspaper 'x' on an average 10" iPad screen
or a fresh free crispy newspaper to peruse, the newspaper wins hands down as an 'interface'.

Still a couple of years away yet, but a roll-up large screen might actually improve on traditional media.

Muahahaha

Prince William wrote: »

Why were the newspapers exempt from the vat increase? Actually why were they included in the 2011 reduction in the first place?

Cos Denis O'Brien. State owned AIB also gave Independent News & Media a €110m debt write off, literally taking taxpayers for mugs to pay his debts while he is a tax exile. Denis always gets preferable treatment when FG are in power and in return FG get favourable media coverage. And if journalists don't tow the line Denis will send them a legal letter-

Seamus Dooley of the National Union of Journalists has told RTE R1’s Drivetime that since 1998 Denis O’Brien has taken out 70 separate legal actions against Irish journalists/media outlets.

https://www.broadsheet.ie/2011/11/04/a-boy-named-sue/

Free media me arse when you've a billionaire tax exile threatening journalists with being personally sued.

IRE60

doublej wrote: »

With regards to price and decline, the July 2017 Circulation for Irish Daily Mail stood at 40127, of which 842 were made available in N.I.The remaining 39,285 copies included 4,729 bulks.The RSP for Mon-Fri was €1.20 and the Saturday edition was €1.40.
Using the figures supplied by ABC to breakdown the M-F and Saturday sales, the total (VAT at 9% included) sales income for a one week(6 day) cycle in July 2017 was €256k.This is 34,273x€1.20x5 and 35,973x€1.40x1.

The Dec 2018 figures show Circulation of 29,441, of which 744 were N.I..The total sales in ROI were 28,697.There were no bulks.RSP was €1.60M-F and €1.80 Saturday.The total income for a 6day cycle in Dec 2018 was €271,418 on sales M-F of 28,327 and Sat 30,179.

What this shows is that even though there has been a 16.95% decline in sales in ROI, (26.63% decline in the bulk included Circulation figures), the income generated by the increase in cover price allowed for an actual improvement of 6% in weekly revenue when comparing Dec 18 to July 17.
It’s not correct to suggest that the decline in circulation of the IDM is primarily due to the discontinuation of bulks.
The total decline was 10,686 of which 10,588 were in the Republic.Only 4,729 of this decline were bulks, the remaining 5,859 were readers that had previously paid €1.20/€1.40 but were not willing to continue to buy the paper at a 40cent additional cost.
No doubt, there can be a variety of reasons for discontinuation of purchase( including death), but the inability of the publishers to migrate any appreciable cohort of bulk readers over to becoming paying consumers is remarkable.

Correct, circulation decline comes from many avenues – price sensitivity being one, online migration etc.

My point was that it’s not correct to blame ‘all’ of the declines the Daily and Sunday titles are showing to ‘market forces’ – like their price increase.

In fact, if you strip out the bulks that both titles carried in December ’17 to bring it back to hand in pocket sales and compare it to the same metric in ’18 both the daily and Sunday are showing a 6% decline in core sales – with no smoke and mirrors in the circulation dep.

Given that the overall market is back -10%, you could reasonably argue that they are outperforming the market – given that it’s a declining one in the first place.

I await with relish to see what the Indo titles get up to with bulks when their numbers are out next month – have they been under pressure to increase the bulks?

JTMan

Ireland's last evening newspaper is no longer. The Evening Echo is to rebrand as The Echo ... https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/corks-evening-echo-newspaper-to-be-rebranded-the-echo-as-part-of-developing-offerings-in-print-and-online-899902.html

An Ciarraioch

JTMan wrote: »

Ireland's last evening newspaper is no longer. The Evening Echo is to rebrand as The Echo ... https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/corks-evening-echo-newspaper-to-be-rebranded-the-echo-as-part-of-developing-offerings-in-print-and-online-899902.html

AFAIK, it hasn't exactly been a great success for the Herald?

JTMan

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

AFAIK, it hasn't exactly been a great success for the Herald?

Total disaster for circulation for The Herald. Circulation was 31,946 for Jan to June 2018. It was 58,826 in 2012 when it was the Evening Herald. Back in 1999 the circulation was 110,500. Circulation is down circa 75% in the last 20 years.

Loafing Oaf

JTMan wrote: »

Ireland's last evening newspaper is no longer. The Evening Echo is to rebrand as The Echo ... https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/corks-evening-echo-newspaper-to-be-rebranded-the-echo-as-part-of-developing-offerings-in-print-and-online-899902.html

Maybe part of a broader plan to make the Examiner a full-on national paper and have the Echo fill the Munster-centric gap created as a result.

BarryD2

The newspaper & magazine publishers (which include some pretty large publishers as well as smaller entities) got a pretty sweet deal in Budget 2018. Not only do they retain the 9% VAT rate and therefore a higher return on print material, but 'e-newspapers' & 'e-magazines' have been reduced from 23% VAT to 9%, giving a decent extra margin assuming they don't reduce their retail prices on same.

JTMan

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Maybe part of a broader plan to make the Examiner a full-on national paper and have the Echo fill the Munster-centric gap created as a result.

It's a cost cutting ploy. Not a national ploy.

The Irish Times save on distribution and printing costs. Newspread are now going to do the distribution.

Loafing Oaf

JTMan wrote: »

It's a cost cutting ploy. Not a national ploy.

The Irish Times save on distribution and printing costs. Newspread are now going to do the distribution.

Okay, makes sense. Although I still not sure the IT's overall move to buy Landmark does...

IRE60

BarryD2 wrote: »

The newspaper & magazine publishers (which include some pretty large publishers as well as smaller entities) got a pretty sweet deal in Budget 2018. Not only do they retain the 9% VAT rate and therefore a higher return on print material, but 'e-newspapers' & 'e-magazines' have been reduced from 23% VAT to 9%, giving a decent extra margin assuming they don't reduce their retail prices on same.

Don't see it as a 'sweet deal' - 9% is high in comparison with other EU member states. Our nearest neighbor, the UK, has a 0% VAT rate.

The differences between the print VAT rate and digital rates had to be addressed in order to equalise them.

Mid last year, Timmy Dooley TD, did make a stab at trying to tackle the VAT and restrictions on some Media in comparison to the wild west rules of some of the online businesses. I wouldn't be in complete agreement with some of the propositions but it was a start!

IRE60

JTMan wrote: »

Ireland's last evening newspaper is no longer. The Evening Echo is to rebrand as The Echo ... https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/corks-evening-echo-newspaper-to-be-rebranded-the-echo-as-part-of-developing-offerings-in-print-and-online-899902.html

Why are publishers crowding the morning market! The Herald is a classic example of what happens moving an evening to the morning shelf. And I appreciate that, in this era, it's not efficient to distribute two times a day.

Are the 9k odd people who buy the Echo also Examiner buyers? if so, we're in for a bit of cannibalism.

BarryD2

IRE60 wrote: »

Don't see it as a 'sweet deal' - 9% is high in comparison with other EU member states.

It is a sweet deal - everyone else who was at the 9% rate got hiked back up to 13.5%. What makes the newspaper lobby so powerful? Oh well, let's see - they can slant a light one way or another on our political masters......

IRE60

BarryD2 wrote: »

It is a sweet deal - everyone else who was at the 9% rate got hiked back up to 13.5%. What makes the newspaper lobby so powerful? Oh well, let's see - they can slant a light one way or another on our political masters......

Yea - maybe the lobby is powerful - good for them! 9% it is!

Edit: The coffers will get about €25m from vat on newspaper this year. On the other hand RTE will receive €186m in license fees - where's the balance there