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12-11-2019, 16:48   #226
Captain Snow
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Been keeping an eye on this for awhile.

Large amount of cold predicted to flood into western Russia Next week. With HP from Scandinavia forecast to move west and join up with Greenland HP.....could be coming our way early December....



As long as the LPs keeping going in the that Direction. We could pull in very cold air.
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14-11-2019, 18:10   #227
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From the Beijing climate centre.

Looks like snowy Christmas Period on this run. Showing cold to our NE and E. We could be tapping into that cold from Russia or Scandinavia....

High Pressure Centred out in the Atlantic and ridging North to Greenland.



Colder then average. Pulling in cold NE




Paddy Power is 6/1 for snow on Christmas day Dublin...….lol
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15-11-2019, 09:35   #228
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Is MT Cranium due to give an update to his winter forecast?
He might be confident enough in it that he doesn't need to update it either I suppose.
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15-11-2019, 10:50   #229
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I have to admit I am becoming very intrigued by what the models are hinting at this last few weeks. While no exceptional cold and snow is forecast in the foreseeable, there is a real trend in the modelling to force northern blocking, scandinavian blocking, greenland and iceland. This trend is unwavering across the model output. Unfortunately it is not yet modelled to draw in any exceptionally cold air, but bear in mind it is only the 15th of November. The jet stream wants to stay south, and low pressure over the iberian peninsula is very much our friend in this scenario. I genuinely see an interesting winter ahead. It feels a different set-up. I mean even this rain we have been experiencing, the thing of note is that it is cold rain, circulating in from east to west often as low pressure systems are diving south east. This has not been the norm in the last several years, at least not to this extent. Something is afoot, and if it does deliver cold it may well be this side of Christmas in my opinion. We have already seen snow from a marginal set up just 2 days ago in the Irish midlands.
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15-11-2019, 11:43   #230
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I have seen the difference already this year in how my usual daily life is affected. Always the last winters it has been mild and dry enough days of the week for me to walk the lanes early almost every dayy. This year I have managed one walk in two weeks, . Bitter cold, high winds that make being out unsafe, deluges.
Because of the situation here weather dictates so much

Like being in a different country at times.

I have no technical input just close observation.

More like, and even more extreme than, my years up in the outer Orkney islands.

We shall see but agreeing with thee

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I have to admit I am becoming very intrigued by what the models are hinting at this last few weeks. While no exceptional cold and snow is forecast in the foreseeable, there is a real trend in the modelling to force northern blocking, scandinavian blocking, greenland and iceland. This trend is unwavering across the model output. Unfortunately it is not yet modelled to draw in any exceptionally cold air, but bear in mind it is only the 15th of November. The jet stream wants to stay south, and low pressure over the iberian peninsula is very much our friend in this scenario. I genuinely see an interesting winter ahead. It feels a different set-up. I mean even this rain we have been experiencing, the thing of note is that it is cold rain, circulating in from east to west often as low pressure systems are diving south east. This has not been the norm in the last several years, at least not to this extent. Something is afoot, and if it does deliver cold it may well be this side of Christmas in my opinion. We have already seen snow from a marginal set up just 2 days ago in the Irish midlands.
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15-11-2019, 12:21   #231
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In my area this autumn has been exceptional in terms of rainfall, one of the wettest autumn's in my lifetime and yesterday I spent the whole day digging trying to get rid of surface water from the garden and the driveway. Our road is still partially flooded, it's been in this state for the past week or more. It's certainly been cold too, although no snow here and very little frost so far this season. The UK is also experiencing exceptional levels of flooding too with over 300 flood warnings yesterday.

The milder trend is still showing up on this mornings charts, however it's beginning to look temporary with temperatures possibly sliding below average once again into the first week of December, after a brief warm up in the final week of November. We may see a trend to something much colder in December, we shall wait and see.
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15-11-2019, 12:40   #232
Elmer Blooker
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I have to admit I am becoming very intrigued by what the models are hinting at this last few weeks. While no exceptional cold and snow is forecast in the foreseeable, there is a real trend in the modelling to force northern blocking, scandinavian blocking, greenland and iceland.
I've been thinking the same lately as the current set up is very similar to December 1978 ....
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15-11-2019, 13:21   #233
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November 2019 500mb height anomaly reanalysis up to 12th vs November 2002 & 1995 reanalysed (two similar QBO years to 2019). Some big similarities including Aleutian High stretching down to the western United States and trough over Canada. There is evidence of some above average heights close to or over Greenland in both charts but obviously the signal was way stronger in Novembers 2002 and 1995.

Trough in Novembers 2002 and 1995 was centred further westwards allowing a milder push of southwest to southerly winds. This meant that whilst both were very wet much like November 2019 so far, they were also quite significantly milder.

The November 2019 pattern is actually what I had in mind for this winter.



For clarity, both winters 2002/03 and 1995/96 featured easterly episodes at one point or another but 1995/96 was far colder than 2002/03 with the latter being a near miss winter for Ireland although eastern Europe had a bitterly cold and snowy season. 1995/96 was an on and off cold winter with wintry episodes each month from December to April and even May had well below average temperatures. First three weeks of January were notably mild and damp though.

The stratosphere remains a very confusing but intriguing picture with a weakening initially coming out of this record breaking strong Polar Vortex but what happens thereafter? GFS operational run is keen on a strengthening again and is a huge outlier in its ensemble even as soon as days 3 or 4. GEFS meanwhile show the SPV just further weakening. Remember that the GFS operational run was the one that forecast this strong SPV event first before anything else. ECM has backed away from its strengthening after the initial weakening too going by the latest available update at the University of Berlin and keeps it at a fairly stable weak level throughout the rest of its run.

Keep up to date with the latest stratospheric news in the stratosphere watch thread here as well as read my first post if you want to know how the stratosphere influences the weather.
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15-11-2019, 14:22   #234
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Is MT Cranium due to give an update to his winter forecast?
He might be confident enough in it that he doesn't need to update it either I suppose.
Could you point me in the direction of his 2019/20 winter forecast please?
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15-11-2019, 14:27   #235
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Could you point me in the direction of his 2019/20 winter forecast please?
Here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
This is what I have come up with after the usual process. The mid-November update might be more than just a tweak this time, I could see this going several different ways as there are some unusual synoptics in various regions of the hemisphere. But the emphasis in my research study was on high-energy events. I don't think low pressure areas this winter will be fooling around, they are going to be packed with energy and moisture compared to some winters. Possibly 2013-14 is somewhat of an analogue, although I would say, shifted a bit south of that onslaught of storms. This is copied from my post on Net-weather which explains a Britain and Ireland focus in the wording.

The following is a preliminary long-range forecast for winter 2019-20, If it seems necessary, I will amend or update this forecast in mid-November.

This appears likely to be a season where high energy weather events will be grappling with a fairly robust supply of colder air at high latitudes.

Britain and Ireland can expect a very unsettled winter with frequent low pressure systems steered by a strong jet stream running a little south of its average position.

This favours a split north-south outcome where the south is often on the milder side of the storm track getting strong southwest winds and rain, while the north is more open to snow, ice and easterly winds.

The north-south divide may be enhanced by the likely appearance of strong blocking highs over eastern Scandinavia and western Russia. I don't think these are going to dominate the circulation but they will come into conflict with the zonal regime at times, forcing it to dive southeast around 5-10W and into France and the western Mediterranean. This may be another winter of heavy Alpine snowfalls and frequent severe cold spells in Germany and possibly Belgium and Netherlands into northeast France.

Battleground conditions seem likely at times across southeast England into Wales and central to northern Ireland. Frequent snow events may occur in northern and even central England, and southern Scotland, also Northern Ireland and some adjacent parts of the Republic of Ireland.

Some heavy precipitation is likely in this scenario, heavy rain in most cases in southern England, especially the southwest, and the southern third of Ireland (Munster and south Leinster).

A set-up like this may not remain steady-state, but could fluctuate north-south bringing the milder conditions further north at times, while setting the battleground further south at other times. However, the tendency will be for temperatures to average closer to normal or above in the southwest, and below normal in Scotland.

This pattern could evolve into a colder February or even March if the strong jet stream loses energy, then the blocking may be able to assert more control.

North America can expect a rather harsh winter in general, with severe cold waves at times, colliding with an active storm track from Texas northeast towards Virginia and southeastern New England. There could therefore be heavier than average snowfalls in the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and inland Mid-Atlantic to northeastern states. A pattern like this would not rule out one or two coastal blizzards in the mix. The west will be dominated by persistent cold high pressure trapped in valleys, and coastal areas will have a fairly average winter with a lot of rain, low cloud and moderate southeast winds. Snow on western mountains will be generally a bit above average but might be twice normal in the southern Rockies and northern Arizona around Flagstaff. Drought will break during the winter for California.

This may also be one of those winters where extreme cold moves south from Siberia into China, Korea and Japan.
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15-11-2019, 15:23   #236
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Here.
Many thanks!
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15-11-2019, 16:18   #237
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I have to admit I am becoming very intrigued by what the models are hinting at this last few weeks. While no exceptional cold and snow is forecast in the foreseeable, there is a real trend in the modelling to force northern blocking, scandinavian blocking, greenland and iceland. This trend is unwavering across the model output. Unfortunately it is not yet modelled to draw in any exceptionally cold air, but bear in mind it is only the 15th of November. The jet stream wants to stay south, and low pressure over the iberian peninsula is very much our friend in this scenario. I genuinely see an interesting winter ahead. It feels a different set-up. I mean even this rain we have been experiencing, the thing of note is that it is cold rain, circulating in from east to west often as low pressure systems are diving south east. This has not been the norm in the last several years, at least not to this extent. Something is afoot, and if it does deliver cold it may well be this side of Christmas in my opinion. We have already seen snow from a marginal set up just 2 days ago in the Irish midlands.
Steady on, if Kermit reads this he'll trip over himself to start a 'Snow Roller-Coaster' thread.
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