Hurricane IRENE

amacachi wrote: »

"better" = stronger?

In better shape to get stronger. We'll find out when the recon planes report back their findings.

You can see how large she is starting to get now.

Irene: Worst Effects on Northeast in 50 Years Possible

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Aug 25, 2011; 2:40 PM ET


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There is potential for the worst hurricane impacts in 50 years along the northern part of the Atlantic Seaboard as Irene plows northward.
The impacts on lives, property, commerce and travel will be serious.
While Irene is not forecast to track as far west, nor as fast, as Hazel did in 1954, it will ride up along the mid-Atlantic coast in such a way as to inflict major damage in many coastal and some inland communities. In today's dollars, Hazel was a multi-billion-dollar storm and reached Category 4 at peak intensity.
Irene will track farther east than Hazel, and farther west than Bob (1991). Meteorologist Heather Buchman compares Irene to storms in the past.

While Irene is expected to weaken Saturday into Sunday after encountering cooler waters in northern latitudes, that will not happen fast enough to prevent serious problems from wind, rain and ocean water.
If you live near the projected path of Irene, you are at risk for power outages, flooding problems and property damage with this storm.



AccuTeam Irene is reporting live from Atlantic Beach, N.C.
Power Outages
Downed trees alone have potential to block many streets and secondary roads from eastern North Carolina northward to southeastern Quebec, running along the very heavily populated I-95 Northeast U.S. corridor.
With saturated soil, water-logged, heavy trees will topple and break, as will tree limbs.
When trees come down, they take power lines with them. There could be millions in the dark for hours and hundreds of thousands without power for days starting at the height of Irene, and in her wake.
Some people could be without tap water as a result of the power being out.
Flooding Rainfall
Irene will bring serious flooding from heavy rain in the coastal mid-Atlantic and portions of New England. It is not a question, not a risk; it is a certainty.
Many areas in the Northeast have been hit with record or near-record rainfall for the month of August, and a few are flirting with their wettest month ever. Rain from thunderstorms in advance of Irene will make matters worse.

This could be the scene in parts of the I-95 Northeast in the wake of Irene's rainfall. Photo by photos.com.
The saturated state of the ground will mean that water has nowhere to go but into yards, streets, streams and rivers.
The worst conditions will be in the stretch from the Delmarva northward through New Jersey, western New England and the Hudson Valley of New York. In part of this area, a foot of rain could fall over a 24- to 48-hour period.
Coastal Flooding, Beach Erosion
Serious coastal flooding and beach erosion are expected from North Carolina northward to Maine.
In a specific sense, the exact degree of above-normal tides is tricky and highly variable due to the highly varied shapes of the coast, barrier islands and back bays.
In a general sense, tides will average 2 to 4 feet above normal, but locally higher surge is likely with wave action on top of the mean level of the sea and open bays.
If you get coastal flooding during a strong nor'easter, you will likely get flooding with Irene. Some barrier islands may be cut off for a time.
Some beaches and boardwalks in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England could sustain damage so severe that they are un-repairable for the duration of the 2011 summer season.
High Winds
Many people along the Atlantic Seaboard probably have not experienced such a strong storm as we expect with Hurricane Irene. People in the path of Irene should stay indoors during the height of this storm.
Some of the youngest of the crowd were not around for Floyd (1999), Fran (1996), Gloria (1985) and others. Then there are the storms of the more distant generations of the 1960s and 1950s, which include Donna (1960), Diane (1955) and Hazel (1954).

While conditions are likely to be much less severe than this even in most coastal areas, falling trees could crash into homes, block intersections and cut power. Photo by photos.com.
In addition to the potential for a great number of downed trees and power lines, Irene can cause other property issues ranging from damaged roofs and siding to busted windows. These items, and others knocked loose, will become airborne projectiles.
High winds will affect air travel and high-profile vehicles in the path of Irene.
There are many bridges that reach sky-high in the major port cities. The higher up you are, the stronger the winds will be. Travel over these bridges for a time at the height of Irene could be halted.
We can only hope that people heed warnings and get out of harm's way in advance of Irene.
Keep checking in at AccuWeather.com as there may be further adjustments to Irene's path in the north, as the two-way impact between the hurricane and other weather systems becomes clearer.

Hi all,
She is looking very sloppy now, no visible eye wall and slipping of to the east a bit, could miss the eastern sea board altogether,
Look like glancing blow would the most likely outcome


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-vis.html

Yeah I think its all a storm in a teacup if you ask me

No chance of hitting New York IMO only windy and wet no hurricane.

But the remnants may reach us around Sept 3rd

mickger844posts wrote: »

Joe Bastardi is having none of this downgrade. Seems to think it will ramp up again. If you have Twitter give him a follow. Some of his recent tweets.

Joe has spent half his life talking about a big east coast setup like this. He's not going to downgrade his forecast in a hurry! :pac:

The window for intensifying is closing for Irene by the hour. Her pressure dropped last night but instead of that strengthening her, she has actually weakened and is now a Cat 2. Joe was calling for Cat 4 landfall, so she has a long way to go to intensify to meet his forecast, in a shortening period of time, and with no sign of it starting yet.

Recon has found 943, so a slight pressure rise. No strengthening at the moment anyway.

Edit : Up to 945 now

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...30.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

Weakening, not much, but still weakening.

11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 26
Location: 30.7°N 77.3°W
Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb

IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.

NHC no longer expecting Irene to regain Cat 3 status.

Still weakening.

2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 26
Location: 31.2°N 77.5°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb

No new tweets from Joe B? :pac:

Storm surge and not wind speeds will be the greatest threat anyway.

Mandatory evacuations now in NYC for all areas in Zone A.

http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/full/2011/08/25/150514-new-york-city-hurricane-evacuation-zones.jpg

Just to get us boardies in the mood for this weekends storm

My basic focus on this storm continues to be "close but not quite a major disaster" at least for NYC, NJ and the Mid-Atlantic states. The track seems likely to stay just far enough east to place all of those regions on the west side where heavy rain may be an issue but damaging winds and storm surge won't be that great.

The regions facing the stronger winds and storm surge would lie east of the track and that would mean a small part of NC, followed by eastern Long Island, Rhode Island and southeast MA. Here we may be dealing with some major damage especially to harbour and shoreline areas, for NC late tonight, and for the other regions Sunday (as the storm takes most of Saturday to move up the mid-Atlantic coast).

Rainfalls further west could be heavy enough to cause some flooding but this appears to be a fairly fast-moving storm by then and I don't see it as a worst-case scenario for VA, MD, PA or NJ -- but that's not to say one or two rivers might not overflow and cause a lot of flooding damage locally. Somewhere between major and minor flood potential so "moderate" would be the call here.

New York City will be in about the location that Cork might be in, should a similar cat-1 or cat-2 hurricane come ashore near Waterford from a SSW direction. I think that parallel would give you the idea of how the storm might play out in NYC and further east in Long Island. And then if you thought of Dublin being like Boston, and the track running northeast into Meath and Down, that would give a parallel for conditions later on Sunday into Monday in Boston.

I just hope the media don't pick this up and warn people in Wexford to flee from the coast. :eek:

Quite a serious step to take. All the while it does seem the hurricane is looking a little weaker than what previous forecasts were suggesting.

Will Ireland be hit? If so when and and how much of it do you all think we will feel here?