Hurricane IRENE

tomcosgrave

This is has just been declared by the NHC and they are presently suggesting that it will become a hurricane just before it passes over Hispaniola. This would make it the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season, but it would appear it wouldn't remain as one for long, based on the current forecast - there's too much land, so if it makes Florida along the present model, it should be as a tropical storm.

Evil Phil

We are 336 miles NW of the center and it is lashing rain. Power went out for about an hour but is back now (not that is weather news). Lots of lightening, if it hasn't moved on too far once the sun rises I'll try post some photos.

Follow it on twitter #irene, I'm going to use #skirene also as I'm in St Kitts.

eilejh

Arlene Discussion thread
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111515&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1440

Arlene Model thread
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111516&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2080

maquiladora

12Z GFS misses Florida, slams into Georgia.

maquiladora

HWRF also misses Florida. Sends Irene into South Carolina as a major hurricane at landfall.

TheInquisitor

My god 933 pressure that would be a devastating hurricane!

thetonynator

TheInquisitor wrote: »

My god 933 pressure that would be a devastating hurricane!

Big difference between he 933 on one chart and 974 on the other . . .

maquiladora

TheInquisitor wrote: »

My god 933 pressure that would be a devastating hurricane!

It could even end up being deeper than that. Or way weaker.

Mostly depends on the exact track she takes due to land interaction (islands). The more land the core passes over the weaker it will become, esp high terrain. Though she could rapidly restrengthen again then beyond the islands if she gets to spend enough time over some of that very, very warm water.

Worrying days ahead first for the Islanders and then later for coastal residents in the US.

dmaprelude

Fantastic! I'm flying to Florida on Saturday

maquiladora

Radar : http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

drkpower

Im in Florida in 2 weeks:eek:.

Does the fact that there has been a recent 'big one' mean that a 'big one' when I am there less likely?

(or is that ridiculous wishful thinking.....?!)

Harps

The storms this season have been weak so far and September is the peak of the season so chances are there'll be a big storm during the month.

maquiladora

0Z HWRF showing a high end Cat 4, maybe even Cat 5 about to make landfall, Georgia/S Carolina.

Would be catastropic if that came off. Hopefully this changes.

maquiladora

...IRENE STRENGTHENS OVER PUERTO RICO...BECOMING THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC SEASON...

So much for land interaction weakening her. She has actually become a hurricane while still over Puerto Rico.

Upgraded intensity from the NHC, but some models are showing it a lot stronger at landfall.

snowstreams

Looks like its eyeing up Savannah Georgia. They havent had a hurricane in a long time. Could do alot of damage anywhere along Georgia or the Carolinas though if its as low as 924! :eek:

maquiladora

From the official forcast :

SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE
FORECASTING.

She was dangerous for Puerto Rico even at this early stage :

PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE
DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED ON PUERTO RICO...AND MORE THAN 800 THOUSAND
HOMES ARE WITHOUT POWER ON THE ISLAND.

ALSO...FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS TO NEAR MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Update Statement From NHC

maquiladora

NHC now forecasting Irene to deepen to a major hurricane, Cat 3, over Bahamas on Thursday with a Cat 3 landfall in S Carolina on Saturday.

maquiladora

Models are all over the place. Some models have shifted east, some have shifted west.

The latest model out is the GFDL and its horrific.

Borderline Cat 5 landfall south Florida. Unbelievable.



Floridians will be thankful this is the only model currently showing anything like this.

dsmythy

thetonynator

Still some hope it could veer away and miss Florida and georgia as a major hurricane. . . wishful thinking maybe?!

damiansynnott

Video from NASA of Hurricane Irene from the ISS

http://www.universetoday.com/88359/views-of-hurricane-irene-from-the-international-space-station/

maquiladora

Latest HWRF run has shifted closer to Florida.

Cat 5 just off the east Florida coast, would be serious storm surge and hurricane force winds all up along the Florida coast there, and then a major landfall into Georgia. Not a good run....

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

Still some hope it could veer away and miss Florida and georgia as a major hurricane. . . wishful thinking maybe?!

There is very much a chance she could still recurve without making landfall in the US, some models showed that today.

The latest models have been showing a slight shift to the west though. Will have to wait for tomorrows models I think.

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Latest HWRF run has shifted closer to Florida.

Cat 5 just off the east Florida coast, would be serious storm surge and hurricane force winds all up along the Florida coast there, and then a major landfall into Georgia. Not a good run....

And that's from a model that supposedly usually has a east biased track. Along with the slight westwards shift from other models, Irene is starting to look like a very dangerous hurricane. GFDL should be interesting.

maquiladora

The GFDL destroys south Florida, then by this stage the core of the storm is halfway up the middle of the peninsula and its still a major hurricane. You can't even see Florida under Irene here.



I really don't think were going to see an outcome like these. So extreme.

Meanwhile, right now :

...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

eskimocat

Certainly one to watch! Thanks for the updates folks! Keep them comin!

maquiladora

NHC has upgraded intensity, expected to reach Cat 4 status on Thursday.

Models are trending to the east so Florida may be in the clear.

Starting to look more like an east coast or even north east coast storm now. However if the models keep trending east Irene could end up missing the US east coast and recurving out to sea.

Faolchu

I'm flying out to Tampa on Thursday morning


Bay News 9 just posted the following on Twitter:

Hurricane Irene is near the Dominican Republic this morning. Winds 100
mph. Moving WNW at 12 mph. Could become a major hurricane by tonight.


Latest advisory from the NHC is here

NHC Atlantic wrote:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230832
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...20.3N 70.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

---

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CORE OF IRENE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. EARLIER THIS MORNING...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...
93 KM/H WAS REPORTED AT PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY

---

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

maquiladora

Faolchu wrote: »

I'm flying out to Tampa on Thursday morning

The good news for you is that its looking more and more likely that she will miss Florida. Tampa is outside the cone now and the trend with the models is eastward.

Could all change again but at the moment its looking like either an east coast landfall or the classic recurve out to sea.

Faolchu

maquiladora wrote: »

The good news for you is that its looking more and more likely that she will miss Florida. Tampa is outside the cone now and the trend with the models is eastward.

.

yeah but we also planned on doing a few days in Orlando which at the minute may still be in the path and our light is due to land in Orlando (MCO). I've been glued to the twitter fot NHC atlantic all through the night.

fingeres crossed she heads back out to sea

tomcosgrave

NHC just posted Advisory 12A, here's the essentials -

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...20.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

maquiladora

Faolchu wrote: »

yeah but we also planned on doing a few days in Orlando which at the minute may still be in the path and our light is due to land in Orlando (MCO). I've been glued to the twitter fot NHC atlantic all through the night.

fingeres crossed she heads back out to sea

I don't think there is any model taking Irene to Florida now today. There was some new data injected into the models from data collected by a Gulfsteam jet on a special mission around the area. Since then all the models (afaik) have shifted east.

Keep your fingers crossed but at the moment there would need to be some dramatic changes for Florida to be in play again.



Trend continuing east with every run, if this keeps up for a few more runs then the US eastcoat will be safe.

tomcosgrave

NHC Advisory 13 is in. Looks like Florida is definitely out at this point and North Carolina will get the brunt - but it will still be a hurricane and will impact Virginia. Unless of course, the models pointing to a recurve out to see are proven accurate.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 231500
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A HINT OF AN EYE... WHILE
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW AN EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TO THE SOUTH.
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE 77
AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS MORNING HAD ISSUES WITH THE ON-BOARD RADAR.
THIS REQUIRED A CHANGE IN AIRCRAFT AND THE NEW PLANE JUST PASSED
THROUGH THE CENTER...REPORTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB...ABOUT
THE SAME AS DURING THE PREVIOUS MISSION.

A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE
IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IRENE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
INCREASES BY DAY THREE...RANGING FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TO WELL OFFSHORE...WITH THE UKMET ALONG THE LEFT SIDE AND
THE GFS/NOGAPS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE
UPDATED TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE
THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE
200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 20.5N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 21.3N 72.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 22.3N 73.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 23.6N 75.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 25.3N 76.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 29.2N 77.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 33.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 37.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

maquiladora

Latest forecast track has shifted to the east again. The trend continues.

If you want to follow Irene to see how she is tracking compared to the forecast track go here :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

And tick the box Trop Pts box, this will overlay the current forecast points where her postions are expected to be.

Su Campu

This morning's official forecast has her making a second landfall in New York City on Sunday!

maquiladora

Eastward trend continues. Looking more and more likely that Irene will recurve out to sea. A huge change from only a couple of days ago when a Florida/SE hit looked almost certain.

sirpsycho

Clearly defined eyewall visible again in the latest image.

Keep this website bookmarked for tropical cyclones. Great site with the most uptodate images and data. (Click the various green/yellow/red boxes for different images).

dmaprelude

looks like Florida is safe bring on the holidays!

snowstreams

Irene is starting to look a lot like Earl from last year. It was forecast to hit the outer banks of north carolina and then make a second landfall near martha vineyard.
But it ended up going more and more east until it missed all of the coastal US and made landfall in nova scotia Canada.
It looks quite likely that the US coast will be lucky again, but it is still too early to tell.

maquiladora

Yeah its looking better and better for the US east coast as long as the trend continues and nothing happens that would send her more westward.

The Bahamas on the other hand are not going to be so lucky. I would not fancy being on those islands with a large, strengthening hurricane on the way...

maquiladora

Got to love the way Irene's eye suddenly wobbles to avoid the little island near the end of this loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

gbee

Almost like a live thing ... mad!

maquiladora

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE
CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...

Irene is now a major hurricane.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Got to love the way Irene's eye suddenly wobbles to avoid the little island near the end of this loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

The wobble is a great effect that land can hav on hurricances going at a such slow pace.
BUt to be honest it would have been better i think if the eye went fully over that island as the NE side winds of a hurricane are the strongest .( in the N. Hemisphere) If it had went directly over the island it would of been calm for a time.

I agree with other posts, resembles Earl alot. Cant see it heading into the Carolinas

Gandhi

PITA summer we've had over here. June and July were sweltering, and this August is already Philly's wettest August on record, and is .07 inches away from being Philly's wettest month ever (beating September '99 when Hurricane Floyd soaked the place). They are saying we could get another two inches of rain between Thursday and Saturday, and that is BEFORE Irene arrives on Sunday.

tomcosgrave

NHC Advisory 17. Irene will be a Cat 4 Hurricane in 24 hours.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS. BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS
MORNING. THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 112 KT JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC...AND THIS SUPPORTED THE
UPGRADE TO A 100-KT CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. SINCE
THAT TIME THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED 115 KT AT 750 MB. THE
PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 956 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS 100 KT.

THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE HURRICANE AND IRENE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
FAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY DUE
TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL
FORMATION TECHNIQUE SHOWS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT OCCURRING
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS BY 96 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS MADE
THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
305/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 2-3
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
IRENE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST HEADING OR TURNS BACK TOWARD
THE NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A TRACK OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
AND KEEP THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE TYPICAL
MODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACK ERRORS...BOTH SCENARIOS ARE VIABLE OPTIONS
AT THIS TIME...AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM. THE TVCA
CONSENSUS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT
PROJECT CONSENSUS WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96 AND
120 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THOSE TWO CONSENSUS AIDS.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 22.4N 73.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

J6P

http://www.nasa.gov/mov/581936main_20110824_IreneVideo.mov

maquiladora

Looks like Irene may weaken slightly and/or undergoe an eyewall replacement. So far she seems to be sticking pretty much to the official forecast track once you flatten out all the wobbles.

12Z ECM looks nasty but it's only one run.

maquiladora

Eastward model trend seems to have ended, for now at least. 12Z ECM and 18Z GFS have shifted west a bit.

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Eastward model trend seems to have ended, for now at least. 12Z ECM and 18Z GFS have shifted west a bit.

Could be a trend wobble but definitely looking ominous for the Northeast at the moment. Worst case scenario would have it staying just offshore past North Carolina and smashing into the Long island area.

maquiladora

I think I've seen it all now.

The 18Z HWRF is showing the center of a very large hurricane Irene right at Long Island, New York, with a pressure of 932.



There's no way thats going to happen.