Hurricane IRENE

tomcosgrave · 21-08-2011 12:57am #1

This is has just been declared by the NHC and they are presently suggesting that it will become a hurricane just before it passes over Hispaniola. This would make it the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season, but it would appear it wouldn't remain as one for long, based on the current forecast - there's too much land, so if it makes Florida along the present model, it should be as a tropical storm.

Evil Phil · 21-08-2011 1:24am

We are 336 miles NW of the center and it is lashing rain. Power went out for about an hour but is back now (not that is weather news). Lots of lightening, if it hasn't moved on too far once the sun rises I'll try post some photos.

Follow it on twitter #irene, I'm going to use #skirene also as I'm in St Kitts.

eilejh · 21-08-2011 6:29am

Arlene Discussion thread
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111515&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1440

Arlene Model thread
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111516&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2080

maquiladora · 21-08-2011 5:45pm

12Z GFS misses Florida, slams into Georgia.

maquiladora · 21-08-2011 6:43pm

HWRF also misses Florida. Sends Irene into South Carolina as a major hurricane at landfall.

TheInquisitor · 21-08-2011 9:29pm

My god 933 pressure that would be a devastating hurricane!

thetonynator · 21-08-2011 10:04pm

TheInquisitor wrote: »

My god 933 pressure that would be a devastating hurricane!

Big difference between he 933 on one chart and 974 on the other . . .

maquiladora · 21-08-2011 10:27pm

TheInquisitor wrote: »

My god 933 pressure that would be a devastating hurricane!

It could even end up being deeper than that. Or way weaker.

Mostly depends on the exact track she takes due to land interaction (islands). The more land the core passes over the weaker it will become, esp high terrain. Though she could rapidly restrengthen again then beyond the islands if she gets to spend enough time over some of that very, very warm water.

Worrying days ahead first for the Islanders and then later for coastal residents in the US.

dmaprelude · 21-08-2011 10:35pm

Fantastic! I'm flying to Florida on Saturday

maquiladora · 21-08-2011 10:57pm

Radar : http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

drkpower · 21-08-2011 11:02pm

Im in Florida in 2 weeks:eek:.

Does the fact that there has been a recent 'big one' mean that a 'big one' when I am there less likely?

(or is that ridiculous wishful thinking.....?!)

Harps · 21-08-2011 11:22pm

The storms this season have been weak so far and September is the peak of the season so chances are there'll be a big storm during the month.

maquiladora · 22-08-2011 7:41am

0Z HWRF showing a high end Cat 4, maybe even Cat 5 about to make landfall, Georgia/S Carolina.

Would be catastropic if that came off. Hopefully this changes.

maquiladora · 22-08-2011 10:03am

...IRENE STRENGTHENS OVER PUERTO RICO...BECOMING THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC SEASON...

So much for land interaction weakening her. She has actually become a hurricane while still over Puerto Rico.

Upgraded intensity from the NHC, but some models are showing it a lot stronger at landfall.

snowstreams · 22-08-2011 10:37am

Looks like its eyeing up Savannah Georgia. They havent had a hurricane in a long time. Could do alot of damage anywhere along Georgia or the Carolinas though if its as low as 924! :eek:

maquiladora · 22-08-2011 10:57am

From the official forcast :

SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE
FORECASTING.

She was dangerous for Puerto Rico even at this early stage :

PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE
DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED ON PUERTO RICO...AND MORE THAN 800 THOUSAND
HOMES ARE WITHOUT POWER ON THE ISLAND.

ALSO...FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS TO NEAR MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Update Statement From NHC

maquiladora · 22-08-2011 4:09pm

NHC now forecasting Irene to deepen to a major hurricane, Cat 3, over Bahamas on Thursday with a Cat 3 landfall in S Carolina on Saturday.

maquiladora · 22-08-2011 7:00pm

Models are all over the place. Some models have shifted east, some have shifted west.

The latest model out is the GFDL and its horrific.

Borderline Cat 5 landfall south Florida. Unbelievable.

Floridians will be thankful this is the only model currently showing anything like this.

dsmythy · 22-08-2011 11:22pm

thetonynator · 22-08-2011 11:46pm

Still some hope it could veer away and miss Florida and georgia as a major hurricane. . . wishful thinking maybe?!

damiansynnott · 23-08-2011 12:15am

Video from NASA of Hurricane Irene from the ISS

http://www.universetoday.com/88359/views-of-hurricane-irene-from-the-international-space-station/

maquiladora · 23-08-2011 12:33am

Latest HWRF run has shifted closer to Florida.

Cat 5 just off the east Florida coast, would be serious storm surge and hurricane force winds all up along the Florida coast there, and then a major landfall into Georgia. Not a good run....

maquiladora · 23-08-2011 12:46am

thetonynator wrote: »

Still some hope it could veer away and miss Florida and georgia as a major hurricane. . . wishful thinking maybe?!

There is very much a chance she could still recurve without making landfall in the US, some models showed that today.

The latest models have been showing a slight shift to the west though. Will have to wait for tomorrows models I think.

Rougies · 23-08-2011 12:52am

maquiladora wrote: »

Latest HWRF run has shifted closer to Florida.

Cat 5 just off the east Florida coast, would be serious storm surge and hurricane force winds all up along the Florida coast there, and then a major landfall into Georgia. Not a good run....

And that's from a model that supposedly usually has a east biased track. Along with the slight westwards shift from other models, Irene is starting to look like a very dangerous hurricane. GFDL should be interesting.

maquiladora · 23-08-2011 1:10am

The GFDL destroys south Florida, then by this stage the core of the storm is halfway up the middle of the peninsula and its still a major hurricane. You can't even see Florida under Irene here.

I really don't think were going to see an outcome like these. So extreme.

Meanwhile, right now :

...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

eskimocat · 23-08-2011 2:32am

Certainly one to watch! Thanks for the updates folks! Keep them comin!

maquiladora · 23-08-2011 8:58am

NHC has upgraded intensity, expected to reach Cat 4 status on Thursday.

Models are trending to the east so Florida may be in the clear.

Starting to look more like an east coast or even north east coast storm now. However if the models keep trending east Irene could end up missing the US east coast and recurving out to sea.

Faolchu · 23-08-2011 11:16am

I'm flying out to Tampa on Thursday morning

Bay News 9 just posted the following on Twitter:

Hurricane Irene is near the Dominican Republic this morning. Winds 100
mph. Moving WNW at 12 mph. Could become a major hurricane by tonight.

Latest advisory from the NHC is here

NHC Atlantic wrote:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230832
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...20.3N 70.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CORE OF IRENE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. EARLIER THIS MORNING...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...
93 KM/H WAS REPORTED AT PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

maquiladora · 23-08-2011 11:47am

Faolchu wrote: »

I'm flying out to Tampa on Thursday morning

The good news for you is that its looking more and more likely that she will miss Florida. Tampa is outside the cone now and the trend with the models is eastward.

Could all change again but at the moment its looking like either an east coast landfall or the classic recurve out to sea.

Faolchu · 23-08-2011 12:21pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The good news for you is that its looking more and more likely that she will miss Florida. Tampa is outside the cone now and the trend with the models is eastward.

.

yeah but we also planned on doing a few days in Orlando which at the minute may still be in the path and our light is due to land in Orlando (MCO). I've been glued to the twitter fot NHC atlantic all through the night.

fingeres crossed she heads back out to sea

tomcosgrave · 23-08-2011 12:56pm

NHC just posted Advisory 12A, here's the essentials -

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...20.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

Hurricane IRENE

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