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August 2011 Boards forecast contest

  • 27-07-2011 3:18pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭


    With the holiday weekend to start the month, the deadline is set for end of Tuesday 2 August, but the usual "late-late" rule will apply to Wed the 3rd.

    1. Predict the mean "IMT" value (which has been 14.7 C 1961-90, 15.1 1971-2000, and 15.3 for 1981-2010, data thanks to DE).

    2. Predict the maximum temperature at any official Met.ie station.

    3. Predict the minimum temperature at any official Met.ie station.

    4. Predict the rainfall at eleven reporting sites as percentage of normal.

    5. Predict the sunshine at six reporting sites as percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS: For a bit of fun, we'll try a long-long-range forecast this time. Predict the highest temperature in Ireland on the last day of August (Wed 31).

    TEMPLATE that entrants can use:

    IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... MAX31

    Once again, because of the holiday, no penalty to enter on the 2nd this month. By then, the forecast for the 31st will be every bit as difficult. :D


«1

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    IMT 14.7..... MAX 28.3..... MIN 3.2..... PRC 137..... SUN 95..... MAX31 22


  • Registered Users Posts: 777 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    IMT 14.7 MAX 25.5 MIN 6.6 PRC 110 SUN 98 MAX31 23.5

    :D (as usual my numbers are plucked right out of where the sun shines from)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,485 ✭✭✭harr


    IMT 15.3..... MAX 23.5 ..... MIN 4.5.... PRC 112..... SUN 92..... MAX31 19


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    15.5..... 25.3 ..... 6.5.... 88..... 116 ..... 19.7


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    IMT 15.0..... MAX 26.5..... MIN 4.7..... PRC 110..... SUN 95..... MAX31 19


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    14.8 ..... 26.1 ..... 6.1 ..... 115 ..... 095 ..... 18.8


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    14.9.....26.5......4.2......141.....86......19.4


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 207 ✭✭okla


    IMT 15.2 MAX 28.5 MIN 5.3 PRC 112 SUN 105 MAX31 22.5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 695 ✭✭✭talkabout


    IMT 15.3..... MAX 29.3..... MIN 4.2..... PRC 105..... SUN 100..... MAX31 19.2


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    14.6 ..... 24.9 ..... 3.7 ..... 110 ..... 90 ..... 19.3


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    14.9 .....24.7..... 5.0 ..... 90 ..... 110 ..... 22.5


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    15 ..... 25.7 ..... 4.3 ..... 105 ..... 92 ..... 21.3


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    15.3 ..... 24.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 120 ..... 080 ..... 18.8


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    14.9 ..... 24.7 ..... 4.6 ..... 118 ..... 85 ..... 22.4


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    15.0 ..... 24.2 ..... 3.9 ..... 103 ..... 085 ..... 20.1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,183 ✭✭✭rameire


    14.9 ..... 25.2 ..... 3.6 ..... 95 ..... 92 ..... 14.2

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭homolumo


    14.9 ..... 24.8 ..... 4.3 ..... 110 ..... 085 ..... 23.8


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,709 ✭✭✭jd


    15.1..... 26.8 ..... 5.3.... 106.....92 ..... 19.8


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    15.0 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.6 ..... 112 ..... 090 ..... 21.7


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    15.5 ..... 27.9 ..... 5.5 ..... 129 ..... 089 ..... 21.9


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    14.2 ..... 24.6 ..... 3.2 ..... 10.6 ..... 93 ..... 18.7


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    14.7 ..... 26.0 ..... 5.8 ..... 100 ..... 80 ..... 19.5


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    15.2 26.5 5.0 150 100 20.0


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    15.0 ..... 23.9 ..... 2.4 ..... 90 ..... 95 ..... 22.6


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,175 ✭✭✭pauldry


    14.3 ..... 24.4 ..... 3.1 ..... 100 ..... 085 ..... 17.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭dasa29


    14.5..... 24.5 ..... 3.0.... 100.....90 ..... 26.0


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 613 ✭✭✭4Sheets


    15.1..... 25.0 ..... 6.0.... 95..... 100 ..... 18.0


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 99 ✭✭traecy1


    14.9.....24.2.....3.8.....115.....90.....19.7


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 240 ✭✭Strasser


    14.7 ..... 23.2 ..... 5.1 ..... 92 ..... 98 ..... 19.3


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,130 ✭✭✭John mac


    14.8..... 25.1.....4.5 .....110 ..... 100..... 19.8


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,320 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    IMT 15.4..... MAX 25..... MIN 3.8..... PRC 115..... SUN 105..... MAX31 21


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 345 ✭✭kindredspirit


    14.9 ..... 23.0 ..... 6.00 ..... 120 ..... 90 ..... 19.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    14.1 ..... 23.9 ..... 1.9 ..... 135 ..... 88 ..... 17.6


  • Registered Users Posts: 377 ✭✭waterways


    15.3 ..... 24.9 ..... 3.6 ..... 125 ..... 95 ..... 20.0


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    14.2 ..... 24.5 ..... 2.3 ..... 90 ..... 90 ..... 18.0


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just a reminder, no late penalty applied this month for entries on the 2nd, and this means anyone who already entered has the right to edit their forecasts through today (Tuesday) ... the deadline will be 0300h Wed, after which regular entrants could use the "late late" option for the rest of the 3rd.

    Table of entries will be available around 0400h Wednesday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭SeaFields


    IMT 15.1..... MAX 27.5..... MIN 4.5..... PRC 70..... SUN 100..... MAX31 17


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,160 ✭✭✭nilhg


    14.8 ..... 24.9 ..... 5.6 ..... 109 ..... 109 ..... 17.9


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    14.9....24.8...3.8....88....101....18.9


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    IMT 15.0..... MAX 24.1..... MIN 2.2..... PRC 140..... SUN 85..... MAX31 17.9


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    14.9c ..... 26.2c ..... 3.9c ..... 110% ..... 98% ..... 23.4c


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    August forecast contest entries

    FORECASTER ...... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... MAX-31st
    ______________________________________________________________

    Rebelbrowser .... 15.5 ..... 25.3 ..... 6.5 ..... 088 ..... 116 ..... 19.7
    Joe Public ........ 15.5 ..... 27.9 ..... 5.5 ..... 129 ..... 089 ..... 21.9
    snowstreams .... 15.4 ..... 25.0 ..... 3.8 ..... 115 ..... 105 ..... 21.0
    waterways ....... 15.3 ..... 24.9 ..... 3.6 ..... 125 ..... 095 ..... 20.0
    harr ................ 15.3 ..... 23.5 ..... 4.5 ..... 112 ..... 092 ..... 19.0
    talkabout ......... 15.3 ..... 29.3 ..... 4.2 ..... 105 ..... 100 ..... 19.2
    M.T. Cranium .... 15.3 ..... 24.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 120 ..... 080 ..... 18.8
    okla ................ 15.2 ..... 28.5 ..... 5.3 ..... 112 ..... 105 ..... 22.5
    redsunset ........ 15.2 ..... 26.5 ..... 5.0 ..... 150 ..... 100 ..... 20.0
    SeaFields ......... 15.1 ..... 27.5 ..... 4.5 ..... 070 ..... 100 ..... 17.0
    4Sheets ........... 15.1 ..... 25.0 ..... 6.0 ..... 095 ..... 100 ..... 18.0
    jd ................... 15.1 ..... 26.8 ..... 5.3 ..... 106 ..... 092 ..... 19.8
    Danno ............. 15.0 ..... 24.1 ..... 2.2 ..... 140 ..... 085 ..... 17.9
    cherryghost ..... 15.0 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.7 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 19.0
    hellboy99 ......... 15.0 ..... 25.7 ..... 4.3 ..... 105 ..... 092 ..... 21.3
    Fionagus .......... 15.0 ..... 24.2 ..... 3.9 ..... 103 ..... 085 ..... 20.1
    dacogawa ........ 15.0 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.6 ..... 112 ..... 090 ..... 21.7
    thetonynator .... 15.0 ..... 23.9 ..... 2.4 ..... 090 ..... 095 ..... 22.6
    DOCARCH ......... 14.9 ..... 26.2 ..... 3.9 ..... 110 ..... 098 ..... 23.4
    Sponge Bob ...... 14.9 ..... 24.8 ..... 3.8 ..... 088 ..... 101 ..... 18.9
    kindredspirit ...... 14.9 ..... 23.0 ..... 6.0 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 19.5

    Con Sensus ...... 14.9 ..... 24.9 ..... 4.3 ..... 110 ..... 093 ..... 19.7

    traecy1 ........... 14.9 ..... 24.2 ..... 3.8 ..... 115 ..... 090 ..... 19.7
    200motels ........ 14.9 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.2 ..... 141 ..... 086 ......19.4
    fizzycyst .......... 14.9 ..... 24.7 ..... 5.0 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 22.5
    Mickger844posts. 14.9 ..... 24.7 ..... 4.6 ..... 118 ..... 085 ..... 22.4
    rameire ............ 14.9 ..... 25.2 ..... 3.6 ..... 095 ..... 092 ..... 14.2
    homolumo ........ 14.9 ..... 24.8 ..... 4.3 ..... 110 ..... 085 ..... 23.8
    John mac ......... 14.8 ..... 25.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 110 ..... 100 ..... 19.8
    nilhg ............... 14.8 ..... 24.9 ..... 5.6 ..... 109 ..... 109 ..... 17.9
    harps .............. 14.8 ..... 26.1 ..... 6.1 ..... 115 ..... 095 ..... 18.8
    Su Campu ........ 14.7 ..... 26.0 ..... 5.8 ..... 100 ..... 080 ..... 19.5
    Strasser .......... 14.7 ..... 23.2 ..... 5.1 ..... 092 ..... 098 ..... 19.3
    TheInquisitor .... 14.7 ..... 28.3 ..... 3.2 ..... 137 ..... 095 ..... 22.0
    H2UMrsRobinson. 14.7 ..... 25.5 ..... 6.6 ..... 110 ..... 098 ..... 23.5
    DeepEasterly .... 14.6 ..... 24.9 ..... 3.7 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 19.3
    dasa29 ............ 14.5 ..... 24.5 ..... 3.0 ..... 100 ..... 090 ..... 26.0
    Tae laidir ......... 14.4 ..... 23.1 ..... 4.7 ..... 091 ..... 103 ..... 16.2
    jambofc** ....... 14.4 ..... 26.5 ..... 5.7 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 16.9
    pauldry ............ 14.3 ..... 24.4 ..... 3.1 ..... 100 ..... 085 ..... 17.3
    Jerry Seinfeld .... 14.2 ..... 24.5 ..... 2.3 ..... 090 ..... 090 ..... 18.0
    ch750536 ......... 14.2 ..... 24.6 ..... 3.2 ..... 106 ..... 093 ..... 18.7
    MiNdGaM3 ........ 14.1 ..... 23.9 ..... 1.9 ..... 135 ..... 088 ..... 17.6

    ____________________________________________________________

    Table may be updated for late late entries (you're on time until 0300)


  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    14.4 ..... 23.1 ..... 4.7 ..... 91 ..... 103 ..... 16.2

    Thank you for the day,
    The endless day....


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    14.4 ..... 26.5 ..... 5.7 ..... 110 ..... 95 ..... 16.9 :o


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    Below Average:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,175 ✭✭✭pauldry


    low for the month so far 5.7 mullingar


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    IMT 14.2 up to the 7th, which is quite a bit cooler than would be expected for the first week of August.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Summary for first seven days ... as tony said, IMT on 14.2 which is 0.5 below whatever normals are being used over at the ag report. The CET for the same period has been running around 17.5 which is an unusually large gradient between the two statistics, usually it's more like 1 to 1.5 deg in the summer and tends to flatten out to near zero on average in other seasons (often a bit milder in Ireland in winter).

    Rainfall averaged 70% of normal for the stations used in the summary, and sunshine was quite low at 58% (Cork was down around 20%). I gather from the stats that 7-8 hours of sunshine a day is normal at this time of year.

    This continues the trend established in July of having all three measures below normal (cool, dry, cloudy) although when it's cool and cloudy the below normal rainfall can seem near normal as the ground requires less of a soaking to maintain the water table.

    Although I'm leaving soon for about three weeks of away time and such, I think my one or two days between segments of this roaming fall conveniently around the 15th and the 22nd so I may be able to pop in and update the weekly segments even if I'm otherwise out of the loop. Should be back in time to post a September forecast thread anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,175 ✭✭✭pauldry


    IMT 14.6c for August


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Summary for first two weeks: (not guaranteed to be entirely factually accurate :P ), just in case M.T. is enjoying his holiday too much to stop by . . . :cool:


    IMT 14.7 so far, which is 0.54 above normal for the first two weeks.

    Rainfall averaged 112% of normal for the stations used in the summary (knock airport didnt update as a % of average so it's not exact) bringing it to 91% for the first two weeks.

    Sunshine was quite low again at 64%, making it 61% for the first two weeks.


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