August 2011 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

With the holiday weekend to start the month, the deadline is set for end of Tuesday 2 August, but the usual "late-late" rule will apply to Wed the 3rd.

1. Predict the mean "IMT" value (which has been 14.7 C 1961-90, 15.1 1971-2000, and 15.3 for 1981-2010, data thanks to DE).

2. Predict the maximum temperature at any official Met.ie station.

3. Predict the minimum temperature at any official Met.ie station.

4. Predict the rainfall at eleven reporting sites as percentage of normal.

5. Predict the sunshine at six reporting sites as percentage of normal.

6. BONUS: For a bit of fun, we'll try a long-long-range forecast this time. Predict the highest temperature in Ireland on the last day of August (Wed 31).

TEMPLATE that entrants can use:

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... MAX31

Once again, because of the holiday, no penalty to enter on the 2nd this month. By then, the forecast for the 31st will be every bit as difficult.

TheInquisitor

IMT 14.7..... MAX 28.3..... MIN 3.2..... PRC 137..... SUN 95..... MAX31 22

H2UMrsRobinson

IMT 14.7 MAX 25.5 MIN 6.6 PRC 110 SUN 98 MAX31 23.5

(as usual my numbers are plucked right out of where the sun shines from)

harr

IMT 15.3..... MAX 23.5 ..... MIN 4.5.... PRC 112..... SUN 92..... MAX31 19

Rebelbrowser

15.5..... 25.3 ..... 6.5.... 88..... 116 ..... 19.7

cherryghost

IMT 15.0..... MAX 26.5..... MIN 4.7..... PRC 110..... SUN 95..... MAX31 19

Harps

14.8 ..... 26.1 ..... 6.1 ..... 115 ..... 095 ..... 18.8

200motels

14.9.....26.5......4.2......141.....86......19.4

okla

IMT 15.2 MAX 28.5 MIN 5.3 PRC 112 SUN 105 MAX31 22.5

talkabout

IMT 15.3..... MAX 29.3..... MIN 4.2..... PRC 105..... SUN 100..... MAX31 19.2

Deep Easterly

14.6 ..... 24.9 ..... 3.7 ..... 110 ..... 90 ..... 19.3

fizzycyst

14.9 .....24.7..... 5.0 ..... 90 ..... 110 ..... 22.5

15 ..... 25.7 ..... 4.3 ..... 105 ..... 92 ..... 21.3

M.T. Cranium

15.3 ..... 24.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 120 ..... 080 ..... 18.8

mickger844posts

14.9 ..... 24.7 ..... 4.6 ..... 118 ..... 85 ..... 22.4

Lumi

15.0 ..... 24.2 ..... 3.9 ..... 103 ..... 085 ..... 20.1

rameire

14.9 ..... 25.2 ..... 3.6 ..... 95 ..... 92 ..... 14.2

homolumo

14.9 ..... 24.8 ..... 4.3 ..... 110 ..... 085 ..... 23.8

jd

15.1..... 26.8 ..... 5.3.... 106.....92 ..... 19.8

dacogawa

15.0 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.6 ..... 112 ..... 090 ..... 21.7

Joe Public

15.5 ..... 27.9 ..... 5.5 ..... 129 ..... 089 ..... 21.9

ch750536

14.2 ..... 24.6 ..... 3.2 ..... 10.6 ..... 93 ..... 18.7

Su Campu

14.7 ..... 26.0 ..... 5.8 ..... 100 ..... 80 ..... 19.5

Redsunset

15.2 26.5 5.0 150 100 20.0

thetonynator

15.0 ..... 23.9 ..... 2.4 ..... 90 ..... 95 ..... 22.6

pauldry

14.3 ..... 24.4 ..... 3.1 ..... 100 ..... 085 ..... 17.3

dasa29

14.5..... 24.5 ..... 3.0.... 100.....90 ..... 26.0

4Sheets

15.1..... 25.0 ..... 6.0.... 95..... 100 ..... 18.0

traecy1

14.9.....24.2.....3.8.....115.....90.....19.7

Strasser

14.7 ..... 23.2 ..... 5.1 ..... 92 ..... 98 ..... 19.3

John mac

14.8..... 25.1.....4.5 .....110 ..... 100..... 19.8

snowstreams

IMT 15.4..... MAX 25..... MIN 3.8..... PRC 115..... SUN 105..... MAX31 21

kindredspirit

14.9 ..... 23.0 ..... 6.00 ..... 120 ..... 90 ..... 19.5

MiNdGaM3

14.1 ..... 23.9 ..... 1.9 ..... 135 ..... 88 ..... 17.6

waterways

15.3 ..... 24.9 ..... 3.6 ..... 125 ..... 95 ..... 20.0

Speak Now

14.2 ..... 24.5 ..... 2.3 ..... 90 ..... 90 ..... 18.0

M.T. Cranium

Just a reminder, no late penalty applied this month for entries on the 2nd, and this means anyone who already entered has the right to edit their forecasts through today (Tuesday) ... the deadline will be 0300h Wed, after which regular entrants could use the "late late" option for the rest of the 3rd.

Table of entries will be available around 0400h Wednesday.

SeaFields

IMT 15.1..... MAX 27.5..... MIN 4.5..... PRC 70..... SUN 100..... MAX31 17

nilhg

14.8 ..... 24.9 ..... 5.6 ..... 109 ..... 109 ..... 17.9

Sponge Bob

14.9....24.8...3.8....88....101....18.9

Danno

IMT 15.0..... MAX 24.1..... MIN 2.2..... PRC 140..... SUN 85..... MAX31 17.9

DOCARCH

14.9c ..... 26.2c ..... 3.9c ..... 110% ..... 98% ..... 23.4c

M.T. Cranium

August forecast contest entries

FORECASTER ...... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... MAX-31st
______________________________________________________________

Rebelbrowser .... 15.5 ..... 25.3 ..... 6.5 ..... 088 ..... 116 ..... 19.7
Joe Public ........ 15.5 ..... 27.9 ..... 5.5 ..... 129 ..... 089 ..... 21.9
snowstreams .... 15.4 ..... 25.0 ..... 3.8 ..... 115 ..... 105 ..... 21.0
waterways ....... 15.3 ..... 24.9 ..... 3.6 ..... 125 ..... 095 ..... 20.0
harr ................ 15.3 ..... 23.5 ..... 4.5 ..... 112 ..... 092 ..... 19.0
talkabout ......... 15.3 ..... 29.3 ..... 4.2 ..... 105 ..... 100 ..... 19.2
M.T. Cranium .... 15.3 ..... 24.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 120 ..... 080 ..... 18.8
okla ................ 15.2 ..... 28.5 ..... 5.3 ..... 112 ..... 105 ..... 22.5
redsunset ........ 15.2 ..... 26.5 ..... 5.0 ..... 150 ..... 100 ..... 20.0
SeaFields ......... 15.1 ..... 27.5 ..... 4.5 ..... 070 ..... 100 ..... 17.0
4Sheets ........... 15.1 ..... 25.0 ..... 6.0 ..... 095 ..... 100 ..... 18.0
jd ................... 15.1 ..... 26.8 ..... 5.3 ..... 106 ..... 092 ..... 19.8
Danno ............. 15.0 ..... 24.1 ..... 2.2 ..... 140 ..... 085 ..... 17.9
cherryghost ..... 15.0 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.7 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 19.0
hellboy99 ......... 15.0 ..... 25.7 ..... 4.3 ..... 105 ..... 092 ..... 21.3
Fionagus .......... 15.0 ..... 24.2 ..... 3.9 ..... 103 ..... 085 ..... 20.1
dacogawa ........ 15.0 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.6 ..... 112 ..... 090 ..... 21.7
thetonynator .... 15.0 ..... 23.9 ..... 2.4 ..... 090 ..... 095 ..... 22.6
DOCARCH ......... 14.9 ..... 26.2 ..... 3.9 ..... 110 ..... 098 ..... 23.4
Sponge Bob ...... 14.9 ..... 24.8 ..... 3.8 ..... 088 ..... 101 ..... 18.9
kindredspirit ...... 14.9 ..... 23.0 ..... 6.0 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 19.5

Con Sensus ...... 14.9 ..... 24.9 ..... 4.3 ..... 110 ..... 093 ..... 19.7

traecy1 ........... 14.9 ..... 24.2 ..... 3.8 ..... 115 ..... 090 ..... 19.7
200motels ........ 14.9 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.2 ..... 141 ..... 086 ......19.4
fizzycyst .......... 14.9 ..... 24.7 ..... 5.0 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 22.5
Mickger844posts. 14.9 ..... 24.7 ..... 4.6 ..... 118 ..... 085 ..... 22.4
rameire ............ 14.9 ..... 25.2 ..... 3.6 ..... 095 ..... 092 ..... 14.2
homolumo ........ 14.9 ..... 24.8 ..... 4.3 ..... 110 ..... 085 ..... 23.8
John mac ......... 14.8 ..... 25.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 110 ..... 100 ..... 19.8
nilhg ............... 14.8 ..... 24.9 ..... 5.6 ..... 109 ..... 109 ..... 17.9
harps .............. 14.8 ..... 26.1 ..... 6.1 ..... 115 ..... 095 ..... 18.8
Su Campu ........ 14.7 ..... 26.0 ..... 5.8 ..... 100 ..... 080 ..... 19.5
Strasser .......... 14.7 ..... 23.2 ..... 5.1 ..... 092 ..... 098 ..... 19.3
TheInquisitor .... 14.7 ..... 28.3 ..... 3.2 ..... 137 ..... 095 ..... 22.0
H2UMrsRobinson. 14.7 ..... 25.5 ..... 6.6 ..... 110 ..... 098 ..... 23.5
DeepEasterly .... 14.6 ..... 24.9 ..... 3.7 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 19.3
dasa29 ............ 14.5 ..... 24.5 ..... 3.0 ..... 100 ..... 090 ..... 26.0
Tae laidir ......... 14.4 ..... 23.1 ..... 4.7 ..... 091 ..... 103 ..... 16.2
jambofc** ....... 14.4 ..... 26.5 ..... 5.7 ..... 110 ..... 095 ..... 16.9
pauldry ............ 14.3 ..... 24.4 ..... 3.1 ..... 100 ..... 085 ..... 17.3
Jerry Seinfeld .... 14.2 ..... 24.5 ..... 2.3 ..... 090 ..... 090 ..... 18.0
ch750536 ......... 14.2 ..... 24.6 ..... 3.2 ..... 106 ..... 093 ..... 18.7
MiNdGaM3 ........ 14.1 ..... 23.9 ..... 1.9 ..... 135 ..... 088 ..... 17.6

____________________________________________________________

Table may be updated for late late entries (you're on time until 0300)

Tae laidir

14.4 ..... 23.1 ..... 4.7 ..... 91 ..... 103 ..... 16.2

Thank you for the day,
The endless day....

jambofc

14.4 ..... 26.5 ..... 5.7 ..... 110 ..... 95 ..... 16.9

Blizzard 2010

Below Average:D

pauldry

low for the month so far 5.7 mullingar

thetonynator

IMT 14.2 up to the 7th, which is quite a bit cooler than would be expected for the first week of August.

M.T. Cranium

Summary for first seven days ... as tony said, IMT on 14.2 which is 0.5 below whatever normals are being used over at the ag report. The CET for the same period has been running around 17.5 which is an unusually large gradient between the two statistics, usually it's more like 1 to 1.5 deg in the summer and tends to flatten out to near zero on average in other seasons (often a bit milder in Ireland in winter).

Rainfall averaged 70% of normal for the stations used in the summary, and sunshine was quite low at 58% (Cork was down around 20%). I gather from the stats that 7-8 hours of sunshine a day is normal at this time of year.

This continues the trend established in July of having all three measures below normal (cool, dry, cloudy) although when it's cool and cloudy the below normal rainfall can seem near normal as the ground requires less of a soaking to maintain the water table.

Although I'm leaving soon for about three weeks of away time and such, I think my one or two days between segments of this roaming fall conveniently around the 15th and the 22nd so I may be able to pop in and update the weekly segments even if I'm otherwise out of the loop. Should be back in time to post a September forecast thread anyway.

pauldry

IMT 14.6c for August

thetonynator

Summary for first two weeks: (not guaranteed to be entirely factually accurate :P ), just in case M.T. is enjoying his holiday too much to stop by . . . :cool:


IMT 14.7 so far, which is 0.54 above normal for the first two weeks.

Rainfall averaged 112% of normal for the stations used in the summary (knock airport didnt update as a % of average so it's not exact) bringing it to 91% for the first two weeks.

Sunshine was quite low again at 64%, making it 61% for the first two weeks.