Property Market 2018

Wanderer78 · 11-04-2018 5:38pm

Augeo wrote: »

Job security might be decreasing (I remember a chat on boards about that previously that you participated in, we are no doubt moving away from the jobs for life thing if that ever was a thing) but the tax take is increasing and that's what pays the public debt. The public debt is undoubtedly a burden and a problem for us but as a nation we are plugging away at it.

Folks being priced out of the market won't increase the overall private debt.

if you actually look at the levels of private v's public debt globally, trends are very similar, i can understand why people such as steve keen calls us 'the walking dead of debt', in relation to our growing private debt levels, its also important to realise, increasing job insecurity is one thing, but the pay of many younger generations is relatively stagnant or not growing quickly enough to even begin to be able to buy a home, theyre effectively priced out of the market, and many may never be able to buy.

to personalise it, some older generations seem to think theyre home and dry, but you will find most of these people are indeed parents and grandparents themselves, and their kids and grand kids housing security is in fact decreasing overtime, and if our housing systems fail to house them, theres an increasing chance they ll turn to their parents and grandparents to provide them with that essential need, i.e. we all have skin in this game, i know a couple of families in this situation right now, and id imagine im not the only one that knows somebody.

Arthur Daley · 11-04-2018 5:41pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Not sure I was selectively quoting it. The article says Household Loans are covered by deposits. This is in response to the idea that there is massive amounts of Private debt. My point is that there may well be, but we are discussing Household formation and House prices here, rather than the wider Private debt in the economy.

A big reason why new lending is not coming on faster than people are paying back, is because Ireland has the most lax repossession regime in the World. The Arrears lobby we saw all over the news yesterday has made it very unattractive for domestic or international banks to lend into this market at regular mortgage rates, when they can't claim title to the security they own.

Ronaldinho · 11-04-2018 6:18pm

Augeo wrote: »

The public debt is undoubtedly a burden and a problem for us but as a nation we are plugging away at it.

We're not really: http://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/debt-profile/historical-debt/

the_syco · 11-04-2018 6:20pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Saying our property crash was caused by the financial crisis is like saying the pothole caused my accident. It is convenient to escape responsability but the reality is that many counties went through the same crisis without such a property crash and many people have been driving on that pothole without crashing. In both cases the crash was meant to happen.

Losing credit would be like losing consciousness. We were hurtling down the road in a car, and losing consciousness meant a large crash. Other countries were going at a slower speed, so when their consciousness was removed, their car slowed and only had a small bump when it hit a tree.

OwlsZat wrote: »

The recession changed very little. We restructured our debt agreements. We are still saddled with an extraordinary amount of debt as are many of the worlds leading economies.

One of the things that still puzzles me is how people are not evicted for failure to pay their mortgages. They get to keep all of their things but those that scrape by with paying their bills seem to almost be penalized for abiding by their mortgage agreement?

In turn, this means that no banks outside of Ireland would want to lend to the Irish, because like the current LL's; if the tenant/home owner stops paying rent/mortgage, there's not much the LL/bank can do about it.

And how much public debt is for building social houses houses in the past, and then selling said houses for a fraction of the cost many years later. And then finding out due to this sell off, they don't have a social housing stock to house people who need it now?

11-04-2018 8:18pm

the_syco wrote: »

And how much public debt is for building social houses houses in the past, and then selling said houses for a fraction of the cost many years later. And then finding out due to this sell off, they don't have a social housing stock to house people who need it now?

I think it's important to point out that this is possibly a non-financial idea. Anti social behaviour is prominent in council estates.

The good tenants generally will get to buy their houses, and the scummers can't. Effectively you force (slowly) gentrification upon an area and there's less scum in it (resulting in less money being spent dealing with anti social issues).

For example, I bought a council house, and among the rules to be eligible, i have to have an income. Money from the dole doesn't count. Unless there's a non-welfare income, they won't sell you the house.

Also, the house is sold at a big discount, up to 60% off. But if you sell the house within 5 years, you owe all of the discount back to the Council (to prevent people buying and selling the houses overnight). And if you sell the house within 25 years, you owe a percentage of the discount (it reduces over time, by 2% each year).

Plus it saves the council money on maintenance as they don't have to take care of the house anymore. Also, if I decide to sell the house, the council get first refusal. So it can go back into the social house stock.

Assetbacked · 12-04-2018 12:54am

Inheritance tax at a level of 100% would be a great leveler in society. The dead should not be allowed disrupt opportunities for the living.

Bob24 · 12-04-2018 1:01am

Assetbacked wrote: »

Inheritance tax at a level of 100% would be a great leveler in society. The dead should not be allowed disrupt opportunities for the living.

This thread: "Property Market 2018"

Villa05 · 12-04-2018 7:40am

Boatswain wrote:

CB rules + chronic lack of supply are the major differences now. Demand is one of the most powerful market forces on the planet. Lack of supply = increased demand. So no, the circumstances are very different now than in 2007. 2007 prices were largely set by people borrowing up to 10 times their income and not requiring any deposits. This is a fundamental point because people are assuming we are in 2007 again because prices are near that level, and 2008-2013 will repeat itself soon. The recession started in 2008 was one of the worst in global history, events like that don't just come around every 10 years. Lessons have been learned by central banks and governments around the world to try prevent a repeat.

Demand you describe is what is driving the price bubble. Price is being dictated by the top 20/30% income earners very often with financial assistance from parents. This is not sustainable

Superlow abnormal interest rates will not last forever especially in a market where 12000 borrowers are 5 years behind in repayments.

Lessons have not been learned. The central bank rules were imposed by Europe. Everything is been done by political forces in Ireland to get around/relax these rules

We are one of the most indebted countries in the world a far cry from our position in 2007. Our public services/infrastructure are for the most part not fit for purpose despite massive spending

When the next crash happens due to runaway house prices I don't think the EU will be as willing to fill our begging bowl

draiochtanois wrote:

This post has been deleted.

I note from your quote that 87% of bank lending is to property. I think you may be focusing on the wrong issue. A healthy dose of diversification needed there I think

12-04-2018 8:01am

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

What I referred to is the comfort of living in a modern house compared with a drafty old/Celtic Tiger build. No comparison there. Funnily enough, these cost similar money so the ROI argument is not relevant. I brought the heating cost to give proof of what I was saying about thermal efficiency. As I said, you'd change your view quickly if you lived in one, there's no coming back.

In the mcmansion I live atm 200l of oil had gone through in the last 20 days and it was uncomfortably cold most of that time, what a waste.

My flat is 20 years old, far from drafty.
My ole lads house is 1930s/1940s, that's drafty.

What's a McMansion? As in size and number of bedrooms etc?

sunnyday1234 · 12-04-2018 8:41am

Augeo wrote: »

My flat is 20 years old, far from drafty.
My ole lads house is 1930s/1940s, that's drafty.

What's a McMansion? As in size and number of bedrooms etc?

I live in a 3300 sq foot house in County Cork, built in 2008 to A standard and we bought unfinished and finished it 2 years ago.

Very warm house, about 450 euro a year on oil. 6 bedrooms i think :-)

Samuel T. Cogley · 12-04-2018 8:53am

sunnyday1234 wrote: »

I live in a 3300 sq foot house in County Cork, built in 2008 to A standard and we bought unfinished and finished it 2 years ago.

Very warm house, about 450 euro a year on oil. 6 bedrooms i think :-)

What do you mean you think? This just proves my point that these houses are stupidly large. This lad has got lost on the way to one, or more, of his bedrooms. :pac:

sunnyday1234 · 12-04-2018 9:07am

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

What do you mean you think? This just proves my point that these houses are stupidly large. This lad has got lost on the way to one, or more, of his bedrooms. :pac:

Well we only have 4 beds but there are other rooms which we converted to a large bathroom, large office and large dressing room for the wife so these could all be bedrooms also

How is it stupidly large ? We have loads of space and its cheap to run. Its paradise

MayoSalmon · 12-04-2018 9:09am

sunnyday1234 wrote: »

Well we only have 4 beds but there are other rooms which we converted to a large bathroom, large office and large dressing room for the wife so these could all be bedrooms also

How is it stupidly large ? We have loads of space and its cheap to run. Its paradise

So you have a 4 bed then

sunnyday1234 · 12-04-2018 9:17am

MayoSalmon wrote: »

So you have a 4 bed then

We have a 7 bedroom house but converted 3 bedrooms into other kinds of rooms.

LirW · 12-04-2018 10:21am

My granny back home lives in a house with approx. one million bedrooms that they built 30 years ago. It has 7 or 8 bedrooms, a large unfinished attic conversion, it has a vineyard, a large wood workshop, wine cellar, huge basement areas, 2 garages. While it's a pretty and tasteful house, she now lives there on her own and uses the kitchen, sitting room and her own bedroom. The other rooms are unused, especially since her husband passed a few years back.
The house was largely unused since the kids were gone and even then it was stupidly big and most of the gimmicks were unused.
Nobody wants to inherit this house because it's large, a pain to maintain and a lot more expensive to run than the smaller city houses they have.
For her it's a burden by now but it's her house and she doesn't wanna move.

I wouldn't want to have that house either, I'd have no use for this insane amount of space. The views are pretty nice though and it's well built.

Cyrus · 12-04-2018 10:24am

well personally speaking we have a 2100 sq foot house and id happily take another 1500 to 2000 sq feet, and there is just me, my wife, our daughter and one more on the way

LirW · 12-04-2018 10:26am

Cyrus wrote: »

well personally speaking we have a 2100 sq foot house and id happily take another 1500 to 2000 sq feet, and there is just me, my wife, our daughter and one more on the way

Hey, congrats!

Cyrus · 12-04-2018 10:30am

LirW wrote: »

Hey, congrats!

thanks, our daughter is just turning 4, sleeps all night, gets her self dressed and a very engaging conversationalist

back to the start again :eek:with the new one!

no.8 · 12-04-2018 10:40am

MayoSalmon wrote:

So you have a 4 bed then

Why are we do fixated by the number of bedrooms a house has in this country. Sq. Floor area is a far more telling.

accensi0n · 12-04-2018 10:48am

LirW wrote: »

My granny back home lives in a house with approx. one million bedrooms

:eek:

LirW · 12-04-2018 10:51am

no.8 wrote: »

Why are we do fixated by the number of bedrooms a house has in this country. Sq. Floor area is a far more telling.

Yes and no. There are places with a huge floor area and only 1 or 2 bedrooms.
Generally I agree but it's not uncommon that people live in 80-100 sqm apartments with a very open plan layout and only one bedroom and that of course is clearly not suitable for a family.
Back home they advertise the floor area and the number of all rooms in the apartment when it turns out that sometimes it includes the kitchen or it's an open plan living-dining situation or the living room too which wouldn't be suitable as bedroom and this can be incredibly confusing. When it says 3 or 4 rooms that can mean that there are only 1 or 2 bedrooms.

keane2097 · 12-04-2018 11:42am

Is it not plain as the nose on your face that the number of bedrooms is very important to almost everyone?

Not sure what the fixation is on this forum with pooh-poohing every metric about a house bar your own favourite one.

MayoSalmon · 12-04-2018 11:47am

Biggest growth in 3 years..

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0412/953971-residential-price-prices-cso/

sunnyday1234 · 12-04-2018 11:59am

LirW wrote: »

My granny back home lives in a house with approx. one million bedrooms that they built 30 years ago. It has 7 or 8 bedrooms, a large unfinished attic conversion, it has a vineyard, a large wood workshop, wine cellar, huge basement areas, 2 garages. While it's a pretty and tasteful house, she now lives there on her own and uses the kitchen, sitting room and her own bedroom. The other rooms are unused, especially since her husband passed a few years back.
The house was largely unused since the kids were gone and even then it was stupidly big and most of the gimmicks were unused.
Nobody wants to inherit this house because it's large, a pain to maintain and a lot more expensive to run than the smaller city houses they have.
For her it's a burden by now but it's her house and she doesn't wanna move.

I wouldn't want to have that house either, I'd have no use for this insane amount of space. The views are pretty nice though and it's well built.

You inherit it and sell it. Why would you not want to inherit it ?

Also im sure it was a lovely place for her children to grow up but i do agree that poeple need to downsize when they get older .

LirW · 12-04-2018 12:05pm

I'm not going to inherit anything :P
Apparently, but that's a family thing, they moved from the city out into the middle of nowhere where they had over 1,5 hours journey to school by public transport in the morning and the kids hated it, especially as teenagers. But that also comes down to difficult family relationships.

Wanderer78 · 12-04-2018 12:07pm

MayoSalmon wrote: »

Biggest growth in 3 years..

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0412/953971-residential-price-prices-cso/

not always a good thing

Bubbaclaus · 12-04-2018 12:08pm

I really need it to slow down to 6-7%p.a.. I can keep up with it when it's that much, anything in excess of that my opportunity to buy is just moving further and further away.

Diarmuid · 12-04-2018 12:34pm

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

I really need it to slow down to 6-7%p.a.. I can keep up with it when it's that much, anything in excess of that my opportunity to buy is just moving further and further away.

It's a rare job that's delivering 6-7% wage inflation to keep up with the housing market.

Arthur Daley · 12-04-2018 12:42pm

Diarmuid wrote: »

It's a rare job that's delivering 6-7% wage inflation to keep up with the housing market.

and this is why we are heading for another bust, at an in determined point in the future. It won't be as bad as the last time, but this cannot continue, or if it does hobble along there will be substantial socio-political consequences elsewhere.

Think England where there is political chaos, totally lame duck government, Brexit and the Corbyn factor in response to the working class and squeezed middle being put to the pin of their collar while being 'managed' to believe they never had it so good, so shut it, and get on with the party. And this is only the beginning we are seeing over the last 2-3 years. It's bubbling under.

koheim · 12-04-2018 12:52pm

keane2097 wrote: »

Is it not plain as the nose on your face that the number of bedrooms is very important to almost everyone?

Not sure what the fixation is on this forum with pooh-poohing every metric about a house bar your own favourite one.

https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/why-price-per-square-metre-matters-36093335.html
In Ireland it is different to all other countries, I just do not get it. Of course it is more important to know how much space you have and what you pay for it extra... Bedrooms are a metric to be included, but price per sqm tells you the actual size of the living area.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 12-04-2018 12:56pm

MayoSalmon wrote: »

Biggest growth in 3 years..

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0412/953971-residential-price-prices-cso/

I'm confused. Did the most recent daft report not say that things were stagnant in Dublin? This seems to be saying the exact opposite.

LirW · 12-04-2018 12:59pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

I'm confused. Did the most recent daft report not say that things were stagnant in Dublin? This seems to be saying the exact opposite.

I might be wrong but I think that was focussing on rentals?

Wanderer78 · 12-04-2018 1:02pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

I'm confused. Did the most recent daft report not say that things were stagnant in Dublin? This seems to be saying the exact opposite.

LirW wrote: »

I might be wrong but I think that was focussing on rentals?

ronan lyons twitter feed might explain things to us all a bit better, confused here myself

https://twitter.com/ronanlyons?lang=en

Shurimgreat · 12-04-2018 1:18pm

Government policy when it comes to national development is usually the default lazy option of trying to put more jobs and people into Dublin without a fraction of the houses needed to house them. Cue disaster, chaos and house shortages.

At the very least companies and government departments need to be encouraged to move out of Dublin City centre to surrounding areas OUTSIDE the M50. It doesn't have to be down the country, it can be within a 10-20 minute drive of Dublin.

LirW · 12-04-2018 1:39pm

Shurimgreat wrote: »

Government policy when it comes to national development is usually the default lazy option of trying to put more jobs and people into Dublin without a fraction of the houses needed to house them. Cue disaster, chaos and house shortages.

At the very least companies and government departments need to be encouraged to move out of Dublin City centre to surrounding areas OUTSIDE the M50. It doesn't have to be down the country, it can be within a 10-20 minute drive of Dublin.

I agree, West Dublin would be a perfect place with so many opportunities and I can't understand why there's no investment into a sustainable infrastructure that allows people to fly into the city centre. The poxy train connections that are way too packed are not going to cut it. West Dublin is in such a bad place with traffic that you'd really need a quick connection locally on several points from city centre to west. Create a proper hub ffs.

LirW · 12-04-2018 1:45pm

Boatswain wrote: »

You can't blame the government for the large multinationals with offices in New York, London, Berlin, Paris, etc. preferring to locate in Dublin city centre over some BallyGoBackwards country town in Roscommon.

The point was to locate outside of the M50, not in Roscommon. The western part of Dublin is huge and it would definitely take some pressure off the traffic network into the city centre. It's still in Dublin, just not within the M50.

draiochtanois · 12-04-2018 1:48pm

This post has been deleted.

Bob24 · 12-04-2018 1:59pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

I'm confused. Did the most recent daft report not say that things were stagnant in Dublin? This seems to be saying the exact opposite.

CSO figures are based on actual selling prices whereas daft doesn’t have those figures and has to rely on asking prices. Don’t know if that’s the only reason but it could explain the gap if actual selling prices are rising faster than asking prices.

Bob24 · 12-04-2018 2:03pm

MayoSalmon wrote: »

Biggest growth in 3 years..

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0412/953971-residential-price-prices-cso/

This is madness. Especially if you consider that a 10% increase today means a lot more in actual value that 10% a few years back.

(i.e. a 10% increase on a 300k house 3 years ago was 30k, but if that house is now worth 400k a 10% increase today means 40k in actual value).

The other things is that CSO figures are lagging behind a few weeks compared to Daft ones so a sudden change in the market could explain it, but since the CSO reports comes a few weeks after the other ones anyway I don’t think that is a major factor.

And lastly I am too lazy to check but it would be worth making sure they are looking at comparable time periods.

keane2097 · 12-04-2018 2:06pm

koheim wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/why-price-per-square-metre-matters-36093335.html
In Ireland it is different to all other countries, I just do not get it. Of course it is more important to know how much space you have and what you pay for it extra... Bedrooms are a metric to be included, but price per sqm tells you the actual size of the living area.

Which isn't worth a fiddler's fart if you have four people and one bedroom.

Obviously loads of things are important but number of bedrooms is often if not always the absolute basic criterion. Your floorspace requirement may be somewhat flexible one way or another, but how many people you have to sleep isn't. It's about the most sensible first box to tick there could be.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 12-04-2018 2:42pm

Bob24 wrote: »

CSO figures are based on actual selling prices whereas daft doesn’t have those figures and has to rely on asking prices. Don’t know if that’s the only reason but it could explain the gap if actual selling prices are rising faster than asking prices.

I've been closely involved with three purchases in the last 6 months in the greater Dublin area. One apartment and two houses. All have gone above asking. The smallest above was 10 k, the greatest 30 k. I don't think asking prices are telling the full story at all.

Bubbaclaus · 12-04-2018 2:49pm

Diarmuid wrote: »

It's a rare job that's delivering 6-7% wage inflation to keep up with the housing market.

I am factoring in my savings increasing on a monthly basis covering a certain chunk of the increase. So I'm certainly not expecting 6-7% wage inflation.

OwlsZat · 12-04-2018 4:02pm

Cyrus wrote: »

well if its like the last time the banks wont be lending so you wont be buying a house anyway

I've heard that mentioned a few times, but my friend got a mortgage approved in the crash years (2010). Obviously his interest rate is a couple of points higher than what's on offer now. However, the idea they don't lend at all in crashes is simply wrong.

Cyrus · 12-04-2018 4:04pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

I've heard that mentioned a few times, but my friend got a mortgage approved in the crash years (2010). Obviously his interest rate is a couple of points higher than what's on offer now. However, the idea they don't lend at all in crashes is simply wrong.

of course they lent but it was at very low levels to a certain type of borrower who had a decent amount of equity,

i meant it more generally rather than specific, there will always be people who were good bets to lend to but the no of houses that sold at the bottom of the market was relatively low.

Plus you have the issue of people waiting on the bottom, missing it and then reluctant to buy as prices increase!

Sleepy · 12-04-2018 4:35pm

In my view the most direct threat to property values in Ireland is a sharp rise in unemployment. We're a very open economy and heavily (overly?) reliant on FDI for employment.

Should, for example, Trump manage to get punitive taxation levels passed on the American MNCs headquartered here, or the EU manage to impose corporate tax rate harmonisation, we could have real problems and even those of us in good, stable jobs could find ourselves in trouble.

Bob24 · 12-04-2018 10:42pm

Sleepy wrote: »

In my view the most direct threat to property values in Ireland is a sharp rise in unemployment. We're a very open economy and heavily (overly?) reliant on FDI for employment.

Assuming we maintain more or less decent lending rules, yes definitely that is the biggest risk. It would at the same time reduce the number of buyers + their budget, and generate oversupply because the population would stop growing or shrink. Exact same as 2007 onwards.

But the thing is many different factors could trigger this so it is hard top predict.

Henbabani · 13-04-2018 8:55am

With all the news about people queuing and the prices come up you can see on daft more and more available units to sale, i just moved to carrickmines and there's apartments for sale 3BDR for 345,000, which isn't cheap but still my point is that those apartments are already ready for delivery or supposed to be really soon, but still they have 10 units available for sale.
People should read carefully all the data came from the media, there's still plenty of new builds on daft available, and more to come in this year and the next years.
I'm new here in Ireland but really surprised to see so many cranes here, which mean that the government is building, maybe not to much as needed but with a bit patience the prices will fell.
We should remember that every day a war can open in Syria between the American and Russia, the brexit is on the way, so before people go to negative equity they should think.

mel123 · 13-04-2018 9:22am

Are we going to have a rental crisis for the foreseeable?
I see it as a bit of a catch 22. I do agree about lending criteria to an extent, but say for example a couple out renting now on average or even a bit above average salaries, how are they going to save to buy a house in the next few years? Are these people stuck in a renting bubble now rather than being able to buy?

Wanderer78 · 13-04-2018 9:23am

Henbabani wrote:

With all the news about people queuing and the prices come up you can see on daft more and more available units to sale, i just moved to carrickmines and there's apartments for sale 3BDR for 345,000, which isn't cheap but still my point is that those apartments are already ready for delivery or supposed to be really soon, but still they have 10 units available for sale. People should read carefully all the data came from the media, there's still plenty of new builds on daft available, and more to come in this year and the next years. I'm new here in Ireland but really surprised to see so many cranes here, which mean that the government is building, maybe not to much as needed but with a bit patience the prices will fell. We should remember that every day a war can open in Syria between the American and Russia, the brexit is on the way, so before people go to negative equity they should think.

The government isn't building much at all, most, if not all of those cranes are for private commercial builds, some of course are for apartments etc, 'the market' is gonna mysteriously start building thousands of homes at some stage, but at this rate, it's looking like it could be next century

izzyflusky · 13-04-2018 9:26am

Those daft ads for new builds are very misleading. I bought in a development which has an ad to this day mentioning their 3 and 4 beds available, when in reality ALL 3 beds went quickly and only a hanful of the 4 beds are available (the less desirable ones). Not only that but the prices have not been updated, they are at least 10k more than advertised.

Property Market 2018

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