July 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

Still no updates on "monthly data" since 27th of July, but based on my estimates, this is a look at provisional scoring. Rikand entered a punt on the sixth which does not count for scoring purposes, I added it to the table for his information.

Estimates: IMT 14.6, PRC 140%, SUN 85%.

MAX and MIN are more reliable to be checked in MS on 5th, 24.0 and 2.1.

(edit _ Table updated from these slight changes -- PRC 170%, SUN 83%, MAX 24.1 and MIN 2.2 still require same adjustments)


Now Confirmed Scoring for August 2020


FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ max min, loc'n __ TOTALS


Gonzo _______ (-2) ___ 23 _ 19*_ 16*_ 11*_ 09 ___ 6+2 __86-2 = 84

Appledrop ___________ 23 _ 09*_ 19*_ 14*_ 08 ___ 7+0 _______ 80

Pauldry _____________ 24 _ 18*_ 10*_ 12*_ 08 ___ 5+0 _______ 77

Jpmarn _____________ 20 _ 15*_ 20*_ 08*_ 06 ___ 4+0 _______ 73

sryanbruen __________ 22 _ 17*_ 11*_ 05*_ 09 ___ 4+2 _______ 70

Bsal ________________21 _ 15*_ 10*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 5+0 _______ 67

Dasa29 _____________ 21 _ 09*_ 19*_ 12*_ 03 ___ 2+0 _______ 66

adam240610 _________13 _ 09*_ 19*_ 07*_ 09 ___ 7+0 _______ 64

Dacogawa ___________19 _ 01*_ 16*_ 15*_ 09 ___ 3+0 _______ 63

waterways ___________14 _ 10*_ 17*_ 09*_ 06 ___ 7+0 _______ 63

DOCARCH ___________ 19 _ 14*_ 08*_ 11*_ 08 ___ 2+0 _______ 62

Artane2002 __________14 _ 11*_ 08*_ 08*_ 10 ___ 7+2+1 _____ 61

200motels ___________23 _ 06*_ 11*_ 04*_ 10 ___ 4+2 _______ 60


NormaL _____________18 _ 09*_ 19*_ 03*_ 07 ___ 2+1 _______ 59

Con Sensus __________19 _ 09*_ 11*_ 05*_ 08 ___ 5+1 _______ 58


mickger844posts ______19 _ 16*_ 07*_ 03*_ 07 ___ 2+0 _______ 54

Eon1208 _____ (-5) ___ 15 _ 15*_ 05*_ 05*_ 09 ___ 6+0 __55-5 = 50

MrSkinner ___________ 15 _ 04*_ 14*_ 03*_ 08 ___ 5+0 _______ 49

M.T. Cranium _________13 _ 05*_ 14*_ 07*_ 06 ___ 1+0 _______ 46

john mac _______(-1) _ 16 _ 12*_ 01*_ 05*_ 07 ___ 1+0 __42-1 = 41

Kindred Spirit ___ (-1) _ 17 _ 00 _ 08*_ 02*_ 05 ___ 3+3 __38-1 = 37

Tae laidir ____________12 _ 02*_ 12*_ 02*_ 08 ___ 1+0 _______ 37

Sunflower3 __________ 16 _ 03*_ 02*_ 02*_ 05 ___ 4+0 _______ 32

WesternStorm ________11 _ 01*_ 00 __01*__06 ___ 1+0 _______ 20


Rikand _____ (late*) __ 16 _ 03*_ 14*_ 02*_ 03 ___ 7+0 __ (45) (not counted)

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For all scoring decisions, Rikand's entries were scored after the contest entrants and his positions in terms of minimum progression did not affect other scoring.

* scored by minimum progression (PRC reduced boost if outcome within 6% of 140 (Dacogawa)).

For the "max min" bonus, as nobody guessed Dublin A as location, points are based on 2nd (Valentia), 3rd (Shannon) and 4th (Mace Head or Belmullet but no guesses for these) for highest locations. Scores for temperatures in groups of three (Rikand added) with some distortion of the pattern caused by tied error amounts, as follows:

7 pts _ waterways (15.9 +0.1), (Rikand 16.0 +0.2), Adam240610 (16.1 +0.3), Artane2002 (16.2 +0.4), appledrop (15.4 -0.4)

6 pts _ Gonzo (16.5 +0.7) Eon1208 (15.1 -0.7)

5 pts _ MrSkinner (16.6 +0.8) Pauldry (16.6 +0.8) Bsal (15.0 -0.8) (Con Sensus 16.6)

4 pts _ JPmarn (16.8 +1.0), 200motels (16.8 +1.0) sunflower3 (16.9 +1.1) sryanbruen (16.9 +1.1)

3 pts _ Kindred Spirit (14.5 -1.3) dacogawa (17.3 +1.5),

2 pts _ DOCARCH (14.2 -1.6), mickger844posts (17.4 +1.6) (Normal 17.5) , dasa29 (14.0 -1.8)

1 pt __ Tae laidir (17.8 +2.0), Western Storm (18.0 +2.2), MTC (18.2 +2.4) John mac (13.2 -2.6)

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Congrats to Gonzo, appledrop and Pauldry for leading the way this month. These scores to be adjusted when I can obtain final monthly values. Will hold off on the annual update until then.



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(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ max min, loc'n


WesternStorm __________ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 6.0 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 18.0 Claremorris

Tae laidir _______________15.9 _ 28.7 _ 3.8 _ 083 _ 096 ___ 17.8 Johnstown Castle

M.T. Cranium ___________ 15.8 _ 27.8 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 18.2 Phoenix Park

adam240610 ___________ 15.8 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 16.1 Oak Park

waterways _____________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 111 _ 103 ___ 15.9 Oak Park

Artane2002 ____________ 15.7 _ 27.2 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 16.2 Shannon Airport

MrSkinner _____________ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 3.6 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 16.6 Phoenix

Eon1208 _____ (-5) _____ 15.6 _ 26.5 _ 4.5 _ 108 _ 088 ___ 15.1 Oak Park

Sunflower3 ____________ 15.5 _ 28.1 _ 5.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.9 Oak park

Rikand _____ (late*) ____ 15.5 _ 28.0 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 16.0 Mount Dillon

john mac _______(-1) ___ 15.5 _ 26.8 _ 5.4 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 13.2 Newport

Kindred Spirit ___ (-1) ___ 15.4 _ 29.8 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 14.5 Valentia.



NormaL _______________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.5 loc'n points by climatology


Dacogawa _____________ 15.2 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 17.3 Oak park


Con Sensus ____________ 15.2 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 16.6


DOCARCH _____________ 15.2 _ 26.8 _ 4.2 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 14.2 Malin Head

mickger844posts ________15.2 _ 26.4 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.4 Oak Park

Jpmarn _______________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 Oak Park

Dasa29 _______________ 15.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___ 14.0 Mullingar

Bsal __________________15.0 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 15.0 Casement

sryanbruen ____________ 14.9 _ 26.3 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 080 ___ 16.9 Shannon Airport

200motels _____________14.8 _ 27.7 _ 3.9 _ 101 _ 082 ___ 16.8 Shannon Airport

Appledrop _____________14.8 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 130 _ 075 ___ 15.4 Mullingar

Gonzo _______ (-2) _____14.8 _ 25.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 078 ___ 16.5 Shannon

Pauldry _______________ 14.7 _ 25.9 _ 4.0 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 16.6 Finner

___________________________________________


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Hoping to get updated info today and will tweak those scores, they are not necessarily carved in stone until I can check the information that is usually available a lot sooner than this month (still stuck at 27th July on the monthly data sheet, MS due out today).

(MS = Monthly Summary in case you're not recognizing my initials)

Updated Annual Scoring Summary January to July 2020


The number in brackets after your rank (total score) is last month's rank. The number in brackets after your best 6/7 total (end of the row) is your rank in that statistic. This will be tracked in similar proportions to September when it changes to best 7/9 and begins to order the table, at which point total score will be tracked as the secondary value.


rank _ FORECASTER ______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun _Jul __TOTAL___ Best 6/7 (rank)


(03)_(03)___ Con Sensus ___ 70 _ 62 _ 59 _ 69 _ 57 _ 64 _ 58 __ 439 ____ 382 (t4)

(03)_(03)__ NormaL _______ 70 _ 50 _ 73 _ 55 _ 52 _ 78 _ 59 __ 437 ____ 387 (3)


t01_(01)_ Mrskinner _______ 86 _ 54 _ 72 _ 61 _ 60 _ 49 _ 49 __ 431 ____ 382 (4)

t01_(04) _sryanbruen ______ 47 _ 58 _ 88 _ 71 _ 43 _ 54 _ 70 __ 431 ____ 388 (2)

03_(11) _Pauldry __________ 63 _ 36 _ 58 _ 69 _ 46 _ 79 _ 77 __ 428 ____ 392 (1)

04_(03)_Dacogawa _________73 _ 64 _ 53 _ 51 _ 62 _ 59 _ 63 __ 425 ____ 374 (7)

05_(t13)_Jpmarn __________ 86 _ 51 _ 50 _ 61 _ 39 _ 62 _ 73 __ 422 ____ 383 (3)

06_(t08) _Adam240610 _____62 _ 38 _ 58 _ 69 _ 47 _ 80 _ 64 __ 418 ____ 380 (5)

t07_(02)_ Kindred Spirit_____ 61 _ 63 _ 71 _ 71 _ 60 _ 53 _ 37 __ 416 ____ 379 (6)

t07_(07)_Artane2002 _______56 _ 63 _ 65 _ 69 _ 52 _ 50 _ 61 __ 416 ____ 366 (t9)

t07_(t08)_DOCARCH _______ 58 _ 61 _ 62 _ 50 _ 54 _ 69 _ 62 __ 416 ____ 366 (t9)

10_(05)_mickger844posts ___ 55 _ 63 _ 60 _ 48 _ 74 _ 59 _ 54 __ 413 ____ 365 (11)

11_(t13)_M.T. Cranium _____ 69 _ 59 _ 60 _ 51 _ 35 _ 75 _ 46 __ 395 ____ 360 (12)

12_(17)_Dasa29 ___________48 _ 70 _ 55 _ 38 _ 53 _ 63 _ 66 __ 393 ____ 355 (14)

t13_(06)_Sunflower3 _______ 68 _ 60 _ 50 _ 57 _ 51 _ 71 _ 32 __ 389 ____ 357 (13)

t13_(16)_Bsal _____________62 _ 54 _ 57 _ 52 _ 48 _ 49 _ 67 __ 389 ____ 341 (17)

15_(15) _john mac _________64 _ 46 _ 52 _ 61 _ 59 _ 57 _ 41 __ 380 ____ 339 (18)

16_(19) _200motels ________47 _ --- _ 75 _ 61 _ 60 _ 65 _ 60 __ 368 ____ 368 (08)

17_(10)_Joe Public _________70 _ 65 _ 42 _ 39 _ 78 _ 59 _ --- __ 353 ____ 353 (15)

18_(12)_Rikand ___________ 68 _ 38 _ 64 _ 73 _ 66 _ 41 _ --- __ 350 ____ 350 (16)

19_(18) _Tae laidir _________67 _ 49 _ 48 _ 49 _ 53 _ 45 _ 37 __ 348 ____ 311 (20)

20_(21) _waterways ________--- _ 54 _ 42 _ 44 _ 67 _ 42 _ 63 __ 312 ____ 312 (19)

21_(20) _BLIZZARD7 _______66 _ 36 _ 47 _ 44 _ 53 _ 15 _ --- __ 261 ____ 261 (21)


22_(27)_Appledrop ________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ 80 __127

23_(22)_Tazio ____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 35 _ --- __103

t24_(23)_Mr Stonewall ______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 34 _ 50 _ --- __ 84

t24_(---)_Gonzo ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 84 __ 84

26_(25)_WesternStorm _____ 54 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 20 __ 74

27_(24)_JCXBXC __________ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 58

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26_(26)_esposito __________ 49 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 49



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(In checking last month's table, I found that ranks below 17 had not been properly sorted, so in the above, the value in brackets -- last month's standing -- is correct where the June table may have been incorrect in ranks shown).

The annual contest has certainly tightened up with most of the leaders not adding much in July, and various others moving up to join the party. Although Con Sensus and Normal have moved ahead of all in total score, they may not be leading when we re-order the scoring table to best 7/9 after September's contest.