July 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2019. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.3 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July.

6. BONUS ... What will be the highest minimum temperature at any location that reports on the met.ie website daily, and at which station? (normal overnight lows in July are around 10-12 C, in a typical July there might be some spells with warmer minima in the 15-17 range, 19-20 could be considered exceptional).

Entries for myself and NormaL follow.

MTC __________ 15.8 _ 27.8 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 18.2 Phoenix Park

NormaL _______ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.5 loc'n points by climatology

Sorry this was posted a bit later than usual, will see if the response justifies any leniency on late penalties which will kick in on Wednesday 1st of July, at 0300h.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 14.9 _ 26.3 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 80 ___ 16.9 Shannon Airport

Bsal

Bsal _______ 15.0 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 95 ___ 15.0 Casement

DOCARCH

DOCARCH __________ 15.2 _ 26.8 _ 4.2 _ 115 _ 95 ___ 14.2 Malin Head

sunflower3

Sunflower3__________ 15.5 _ 28.1_ 5.0 _ 85 _ 110 ___ 16.9 Oak park

WesternStorm

WesternStorm__ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 6.0 _ 75 _ 115 ___ 18.0 Claremorris

dasa29

Dasa29 _______ 15.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___ 14.0 Mullingar

Artane2002

Artane2002 _______ 15.7 _ 27.2 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 85 ___ 16.2 Shannon Airport

Jpmarn

Jpmarn_______ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.4_ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 Oak Park

waterways

waterways _______ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 111 _ 103 ___ 15.9

mickger844posts

mickger844posts __________ 15.2 _ 26.4 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.4 Oak Park

appledrop

Appledrop ___ 14.8 - 27.5- 3.0- 130%-75% -15.4Mullingar

pauldry

Pauldry_________14.7_ 25.9_ 4.0 _ 120_ 95___ 16.6 Finner

adam240610

adam240610___15.8_27.5_3_105_90_16.1_Oak Park

mrskinner

Skinner______15.6_____28°_____3.6°_____95%_____95%_____16.6° Phoenix

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _______ 15.9 _ 28.7 _ 3.8 _ 83 _ 96 ___ 17.8 Johnstown Castle

200motels

200motels __ 14.8_ 27.7_ 3.9 _ 101 _ 82— 16.8 Shannon Airport

dacogawa

Dacogawa _____ 15.2 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 140 _ 90 ___ 17.3 Oak park

John mac

john mac__________ 15.5 _ 26.8 _ 5.4 _ 105 _ 98 ___ 13.2 newport

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.4 ___ 29.8 ___ 4.1 ___ 80 ___ 110 ___ 14.5 Valentia.

waterways

Forgot to add Oak Park

Gonzo

Gonzo _______ 14.8 _ 25.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 78 ___ 16.5 Shannon

Tae laidir

Yesterday's Max Min was 12.9 at Phoenix Park

Tae laidir

Yesterday's Max Min 13.6 at Valentia.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for July, 2020


FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ max min, loc'n


WesternStorm __________ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 6.0 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 18.0 Claremorris

Tae laidir _______________15.9 _ 28.7 _ 3.8 _ 083 _ 096 ___ 17.8 Johnstown Castle

M.T. Cranium ___________ 15.8 _ 27.8 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 18.2 Phoenix Park

adam240610 ___________ 15.8 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 16.1 Oak Park

waterways _____________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 111 _ 103 ___ 15.9 Oak Park

Artane2002 ____________ 15.7 _ 27.2 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 16.2 Shannon Airport

MrSkinner _____________ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 3.6 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 16.6 Phoenix

Eon1208 _____ (-5) _____ 15.6 _ 26.5 _ 4.5 _ 108 _ 088 ___ 15.1 Oak Park

Sunflower3 ____________ 15.5 _ 28.1 _ 5.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.9 Oak park

john mac _______(-1) ___ 15.5 _ 26.8 _ 5.4 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 13.2 Newport

Kindred Spirit ___ (-1) ___ 15.4 _ 29.8 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 14.5 Valentia.



NormaL _______________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.5 loc'n points by climatology


Dacogawa _____________ 15.2 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 17.3 Oak park


Con Sensus ____________ 15.2 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 16.6


DOCARCH _____________ 15.2 _ 26.8 _ 4.2 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 14.2 Malin Head

mickger844posts ________15.2 _ 26.4 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.4 Oak Park

Jpmarn _______________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 Oak Park

Dasa29 _______________ 15.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___ 14.0 Mullingar

Bsal __________________15.0 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 15.0 Casement

sryanbruen ____________ 14.9 _ 26.3 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 080 ___ 16.9 Shannon Airport

200motels _____________14.8 _ 27.7 _ 3.9 _ 101 _ 082 ___ 16.8 Shannon Airport

Appledrop _____________14.8 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 130 _ 075 ___ 15.4 Mullingar

Gonzo _______ (-2) _____14.8 _ 25.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 078 ___ 16.5 Shannon

Pauldry _______________ 14.7 _ 25.9 _ 4.0 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 16.6 Finner

___________________________________________

For the location of the highest minimum, of 21 forecasts, we have these choices:

Oak Park ___ 6 (con scores 3)

Shannon ___ 4 (con scores 3)

Mullingar ___2 (con scores 2)

Phoenix Pk _ 2 (con scores 2)

Valentia ____1 (con scores 1 to end of list)

Newport ____1

Claremorris _ 1

Finner _____ 1

Johnstown __ 1

Cassement __1

Malin Head _ 1

For any other locations, Con Sensus scores 0.

Your score will be 3 if you're right, 2 if your choice is second highest and 1 if it's third highest.

If nobody scores 3 this way, ranks will move up one (3 for second highest etc).

=======================================================

note: I have included a late forecast from Eon1208 (below) but Con Sensus remains based on the regular timetable of entries. Since Eon1208 can't qualify to play the annual contest, I thought it would not matter if I reduced the hefty late penalty that would apply to any regular entrant who showed up on 4th. By the way, welcome back to Gonzo, Appledrop and Western Storm who have done at least one contest in the past.

eon1208

Bit late. Never tried before. Here goes..


15.6 - 26.5 - 4.5 - 108 - 88 - 15.1 (Oak Park)

M.T. Cranium

Okay if you were a regular entrant that would be subject to a pretty large late penalty but I'll just apply five points as you're new and can't factor into the annual results. (It would be more like 30 points which is a big bite indeed).

Note to Rikand and BLIZZARD7 who are regulars that have not entered July, can't extend this concession to your good selves and would say if you do stumble in at this point, just hold off as your score is likely to become one of two discards anyway at this point.

Tae laidir

By a strange coincidence, the 3 Parks had a Max Min of 14.8 yesterday.
Oak, Moore and Phoenix!

Rikand

Yep, forgot all about it. Oh well


probably would have went for :: 15.5 ___ 28.0 ___ 3.5 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 16.0 Mount Dillon

M.T. Cranium

Will let you know what that might score, almost up to full score removal territory in terms of late penalty. As I said, it's a discard either way. Apologies for not letting you know you were running late, I was also running late in terms of gathering the forecasts into a table. Company and day trips, yada yada.

Joe Public

Somehow I thought I did the July forecast but now realise I didn't, strange times!

M.T. Cranium

Joe Public wrote: »

Somehow I thought I did the July forecast but now realise I didn't, strange times!

Oops, I can tell you why I didn't notice that, I saw 21 forecasters in the contest (before Eon1208) and thought, there's 21 regular entrants, but then got distracted and thought it was 21 from two occasionals which must mean 19 regulars, so then I started to think whose names are missing, and came up with two, however, it was actually three occasionals so I should have been looking for three regulars. In any case by the time I went through all that it was the 4th and late penalties by then are almost 50 points.

It's not a crippling blow to anyone's chances in the best ten of twelve, just means you can only discard one instead of two scores now.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week of July (so they tell us) ...

IMT on 14.1, which is 0.9 below normal for the week.

MAX and MIN have not made an appearance yet.

PRC was 186% of normal.

SUN only 58% of normal (347/600).

The highest MIN so far (thanks to Tae laidir for tracking them) is 14.8 at various locations (all __ Park).

Tae laidir

Claremorris recorded a min of 3.1 yesterday. Not sure if it's min so far.

M.T. Cranium

I think that 3.1 is lowest so far and stands a chance of remaining to the end.

No real sign of MAX yet, he's been delayed on his travels.

pauldry

Its always 24 or more around the week of 19th to 26th

M.T. Cranium

After the second week of July ...

IMT a rather chilly 13.7, the second week average was 13.3, which was 2.1 below normal.

MAX remains undetected, MIN 3.1

PRC now at 155% with the second week average 124% of normal. With no further rainfall this would only guarantee about 70% so a fairly dry outlook could see this down to normal or even into the 90s.

SUN has improved slightly to 69% with this past week at 79% (474/600).

The highest minimum remains 14.8 at the three Park locations.

Tae laidir

And keeping with the Park theme, Phoenix Park recorded 24.0 yesterday.

pauldry

And that could take some beating.

Maybe Moore Park will beat it or Oak Park.

Gonzo

24C at Phoenix Park will be hard to beat, not many chances of getting temperatures into the 20's between now and the end of the month.

pauldry

Max Min 15.1c Valentia

M.T. Cranium

Also for scoring purposes, Shannon at 15.0 moves into second, the three parks remain tied for third at 14.8.

pauldry

Mt Dillon 2.2c min

brrrrr

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks of July ...

IMT on 14.0, the third week averaged 14.6 which was 0.9 below normal.

MAX 24.0 and MIN 2.2

PRC now down to 124% with the third week rather dry, 61% of normal.

SUN has improved to 91% thanks to the third week being sunnier for a change, 134.5% (807/600).

The "max min" remains 15.1.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 14.3 with fourth week 15.1 (0.5 below normal). Will finish around 14.5

MAX remains 24.0 and MIN 2.2

PRC back up to 144% with this past week 206%. Should finish around there.

SUN has slipped back to 87% with this past week around 78% (470/600). Should finish around 85%.

The "max min" remains 15.1 but I suspect a higher value may occur tomorrow or Friday.

Will be posting the August contest thread soon.

pauldry

A Max Max might also happen tomorrow or Friday depending on sunshine

Jpmarn

New Max Min for bonus question 15.6°c at Shannon Airport. Will edit this post if there is a higher figure posted on Met.ie yesterday’s weather page. Edit Shannon has be beaten by Valentia at 15.7°C

M.T. Cranium

There was one higher, top three are now all from 30th ...

Valentia 15.7
Shannon 15.6
Mace Head & Belmullet 15.5

There is some chance of these being overturned today, as some stations have not been below 16 so far. Remains to be seen what they will have by midnight however.

Tae laidir

Mace Head now showing 15.5 for yesterday along with Belmullet.

pauldry

Min temp in Casement so far is 16.8c

With just 10 hours left in July its going to go right to the wire what the max min will be

Pheonix Park likely in with a shout too

appledrop

I think it will be Phoneix Park or dare I say it Dublin airport!

Still very warm here 18 degrees.