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July 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-06-2020 7:51pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2019. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.3 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see 2 above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July.

    6. BONUS ... What will be the highest minimum temperature at any location that reports on the met.ie website daily, and at which station? (normal overnight lows in July are around 10-12 C, in a typical July there might be some spells with warmer minima in the 15-17 range, 19-20 could be considered exceptional).

    Entries for myself and NormaL follow.

    MTC __________ 15.8 _ 27.8 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 18.2 Phoenix Park

    NormaL _______ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.5 loc'n points by climatology

    Sorry this was posted a bit later than usual, will see if the response justifies any leniency on late penalties which will kick in on Wednesday 1st of July, at 0300h.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 14.9 _ 26.3 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 80 ___ 16.9 Shannon Airport

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _______ 15.0 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 95 ___ 15.0 Casement


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH __________ 15.2 _ 26.8 _ 4.2 _ 115 _ 95 ___ 14.2 Malin Head


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3__________ 15.5 _ 28.1_ 5.0 _ 85 _ 110 ___ 16.9 Oak park


  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm__ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 6.0 _ 75 _ 115 ___ 18.0 Claremorris


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  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 _______ 15.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___ 14.0 Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 _______ 15.7 _ 27.2 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 85 ___ 16.2 Shannon Airport


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn_______ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.4_ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 111 _ 103 ___ 15.9


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __________ 15.2 _ 26.4 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.4 Oak Park


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,622 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop ___ 14.8 - 27.5- 3.0- 130%-75% -15.4Mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_________14.7_ 25.9_ 4.0 _ 120_ 95___ 16.6 Finner


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    adam240610___15.8_27.5_3_105_90_16.1_Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner______15.6_____28°_____3.6°_____95%_____95%_____16.6° Phoenix


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 15.9 _ 28.7 _ 3.8 _ 83 _ 96 ___ 17.8 Johnstown Castle


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels __ 14.8_ 27.7_ 3.9 _ 101 _ 82— 16.8 Shannon Airport


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _____ 15.2 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 140 _ 90 ___ 17.3 Oak park


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac__________ 15.5 _ 26.8 _ 5.4 _ 105 _ 98 ___ 13.2 newport


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 15.4 ___ 29.8 ___ 4.1 ___ 80 ___ 110 ___ 14.5 Valentia.


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    Forgot to add Oak Park


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo _______ 14.8 _ 25.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 78 ___ 16.5 Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Yesterday's Max Min was 12.9 at Phoenix Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Yesterday's Max Min 13.6 at Valentia.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for July, 2020


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ max min, loc'n


    WesternStorm __________ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 6.0 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 18.0 Claremorris

    Tae laidir _______________15.9 _ 28.7 _ 3.8 _ 083 _ 096 ___ 17.8 Johnstown Castle

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 15.8 _ 27.8 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 18.2 Phoenix Park

    adam240610 ___________ 15.8 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 16.1 Oak Park

    waterways _____________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 111 _ 103 ___ 15.9 Oak Park

    Artane2002 ____________ 15.7 _ 27.2 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 16.2 Shannon Airport

    MrSkinner _____________ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 3.6 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 16.6 Phoenix

    Eon1208 _____ (-5) _____ 15.6 _ 26.5 _ 4.5 _ 108 _ 088 ___ 15.1 Oak Park

    Sunflower3 ____________ 15.5 _ 28.1 _ 5.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.9 Oak park

    john mac _______(-1) ___ 15.5 _ 26.8 _ 5.4 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 13.2 Newport

    Kindred Spirit ___ (-1) ___ 15.4 _ 29.8 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 14.5 Valentia.



    NormaL _______________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.5 loc'n points by climatology


    Dacogawa _____________ 15.2 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 17.3 Oak park


    Con Sensus ____________ 15.2 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 16.6


    DOCARCH _____________ 15.2 _ 26.8 _ 4.2 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 14.2 Malin Head

    mickger844posts ________15.2 _ 26.4 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.4 Oak Park

    Jpmarn _______________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 Oak Park

    Dasa29 _______________ 15.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___ 14.0 Mullingar

    Bsal __________________15.0 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 15.0 Casement

    sryanbruen ____________ 14.9 _ 26.3 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 080 ___ 16.9 Shannon Airport

    200motels _____________14.8 _ 27.7 _ 3.9 _ 101 _ 082 ___ 16.8 Shannon Airport

    Appledrop _____________14.8 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 130 _ 075 ___ 15.4 Mullingar

    Gonzo _______ (-2) _____14.8 _ 25.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 078 ___ 16.5 Shannon

    Pauldry _______________ 14.7 _ 25.9 _ 4.0 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 16.6 Finner

    ___________________________________________

    For the location of the highest minimum, of 21 forecasts, we have these choices:

    Oak Park ___ 6 (con scores 3)

    Shannon ___ 4 (con scores 3)

    Mullingar ___2 (con scores 2)

    Phoenix Pk _ 2 (con scores 2)

    Valentia ____1 (con scores 1 to end of list)

    Newport ____1

    Claremorris _ 1

    Finner _____ 1

    Johnstown __ 1

    Cassement __1

    Malin Head _ 1

    For any other locations, Con Sensus scores 0.

    Your score will be 3 if you're right, 2 if your choice is second highest and 1 if it's third highest.

    If nobody scores 3 this way, ranks will move up one (3 for second highest etc).

    =======================================================

    note: I have included a late forecast from Eon1208 (below) but Con Sensus remains based on the regular timetable of entries. Since Eon1208 can't qualify to play the annual contest, I thought it would not matter if I reduced the hefty late penalty that would apply to any regular entrant who showed up on 4th. By the way, welcome back to Gonzo, Appledrop and Western Storm who have done at least one contest in the past.


  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    Bit late. Never tried before. Here goes..


    15.6 - 26.5 - 4.5 - 108 - 88 - 15.1 (Oak Park)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Okay if you were a regular entrant that would be subject to a pretty large late penalty but I'll just apply five points as you're new and can't factor into the annual results. (It would be more like 30 points which is a big bite indeed).

    Note to Rikand and BLIZZARD7 who are regulars that have not entered July, can't extend this concession to your good selves and would say if you do stumble in at this point, just hold off as your score is likely to become one of two discards anyway at this point.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    By a strange coincidence, the 3 Parks had a Max Min of 14.8 yesterday.
    Oak, Moore and Phoenix!


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,564 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Yep, forgot all about it. Oh well :)


    probably would have went for :: 15.5 ___ 28.0 ___ 3.5 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 16.0 Mount Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Will let you know what that might score, almost up to full score removal territory in terms of late penalty. As I said, it's a discard either way. Apologies for not letting you know you were running late, I was also running late in terms of gathering the forecasts into a table. Company and day trips, yada yada.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Somehow I thought I did the July forecast but now realise I didn't, strange times!


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