The Golf Tips Thread

Waccamacca3 · 03-01-2020 3:41pm

Sincere Howling Reformer wrote: »

If already backed any of these JT/Fowler/Rahm, then could be a decent Alt/Arb/Offset acca-builder, and it does have 40% market availabily @17.0 (16/1), not just default 14/1.

Supposed to be windy next 3 days can't see winner coming from outside top 5

Waccamacca3 · 04-01-2020 5:07pm

Kuchar was shocking yesterday has won in wind before. He ain't defending next week I find strange.

zimmermania · 06-01-2020 1:31am

Reed fighting back after shocker yesterday.
I am hopeful as he is scrambling well and if he hits a few greens who knows.

zimmermania · 06-01-2020 1:39am

The other bet is more likely to pay off but nothing certain with Paddy. Rahm is one of the 5 betting without I just left it off the docket.

zimmermania · 06-01-2020 5:00pm

Paddy nearly pulled off the two bets for me,the without market was some bet as things turned out.

zimmermania · 07-01-2020 7:44pm

Waialae,is somewhat different to Kapalua insofar as those who do not hit the ball out of sight are not at a disadvantage and accuracy is essential.

The betting "without" market is the way to go, for me at least this week even though we may never get it as easy again with a small field.last week.

PP is betting without Thomas,Reed,Simpson,Morikawa,Matsuyama and IM and there may be a bit of value in backing Matt Kuchar at 17/1 5 places,Kuchar is only 22/1 with PP to win outright and this type of tournament (when a lot of the stars are missing)is up Kuchars alley as he showed when winning here last year.

Kuchar did ok last week in finishing 14th and can do better this week on a more suitable course.

Imay back another one or 2 but i will leave Joburg alone because 240 players on two courses is not ideal.

Waccamacca3 · 08-01-2020 3:45pm

zimmermania wrote: »

Waialae,is somewhat different to Kapalua insofar as those who do not hit the ball out of sight are not at a disadvantage and accuracy is essential.

The betting "without" market is the way to go, for me at least this week even though we may never get it as easy again with a small field.last week.

PP is betting without Thomas,Reed,Simpson,Morikawa,Matsuyama and IM and there may be a bit of value in backing Matt Kuchar at 17/1 5 places,Kuchar is only 22/1 with PP to win outright and this type of tournament (when a lot of the stars are missing)is up Kuchars alley as he showed when winning here last year.

Kuchar did ok last week in finishing 14th and can do better this week on a more suitable course.

Imay back another one or 2 but i will leave Joburg alone because 240 players on two courses is not ideal.

Niemenen this week for me think course will suit

zimmermania · 08-01-2020 4:18pm

Added 2 more betting without.
PUTNAM 35 to1 Sony and H Porteus without 5 in South Africa 50 to1.

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-01-2020 4:39pm

Instead of 8pl in SA (for hundreds of contenders), split the field using 1stR per course, and still get a reasonable 6pl: e.g. Pulk & Pepp/'Jager

Sony is only 3/5 the field size of SA: Conners@36(8pl), or the Sky people (7pl) have C.Smith +20% @51.

Banner2theend · 08-01-2020 6:29pm

I like the chances of Talor Gooch, this week in the Sony Open In Hawaii. He is a very good player in tournaments where high winds were a factor. Comes from Oklahoma where wind is always a factor and is a good all round player.

Around 150/1 in places and with good e/w terms also, he certainly looks a good bet. Looks like Thursday and Friday are going to be very rough weather wise with gusts of over 40 mph or higher in Waialae in Honolulu. Add to it the likelihood of thunderstorms also, it will be a very tough week for players, caddies, patrons and officials and ground staff.

Connor Syme at the South African Open and Gunn Charoenkul in the Hong Kong Open, are also golfers that I feel will do well and are well worth a each-way bet this week. Syme at 66/1 generally while Charoenkul is around 20/1.

PopePalpatine · 08-01-2020 10:24pm

^Taylor's 175/1 (7 places, 1/5 odds) with Fred.

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-01-2020 11:37am

Sincere Howling Reformer wrote: »

....
Sony is only 3/5 the field size of SA: Conners@36(8pl), or the Sky people (7pl) have C.Smith +20% @51.

zimmermania · 16-01-2020 8:15pm

I had a €20 free bet from PP and i used it to have a tenner ew D Bozzelli who was placed here twice in the American Express at 150/1 8 places and i see that he is 2 under after 4,lets hope i get a bit of a run.

abarkie · 22-01-2020 10:13pm

Couple of good tournaments this week, so starting the year off

Dubai Desert Classic - Sergio Garcia & Martin Kaymer

Farmers Insurance - Gary Woodland & Jason Day

Good luck all

abarkie · 29-01-2020 9:29pm

Couple of good tournaments this week, although the Saudi one is a bit of a shot in the dark

Saudi International - Sergio Garcia & Tom Lewis

Phoenix Open - Gary Woodland & Bubba Watson

Good luck all

zimmermania · 30-01-2020 12:18am

S.Im a tenner ew 5 places 25 to1 betting without Fowler Matsuyama Rahm ,Simpson and Thomas. Phoenix Open.

sydthebeat · 30-01-2020 9:04am

zimmermania wrote: »

S.Im a tenner ew 5 places 25 to1 betting without Fowler Matsuyama Rahm ,Simpson and Thomas. Phoenix Open.

Same bet but An instead of Im.

E/w @ 50/1

zimmermania · 12-02-2020 9:40pm

Backed Kevin Na ew without Johnson.McIlroy,Rahm,Thomas and Woods at 45/1 and also backed him at 1/1 to be in the top 40. in the Genesis.

The real mccoy 91 · 13-02-2020 2:45pm

Cantlay my main dart this week 22/1

Smaller stake on rose 35/1

And a few small silly outsiders
Hoffman 200/1
Wise 200/1
Stanley 300/1

Banner2theend · 19-02-2020 8:07pm

Wgc Mexico championship: Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100-1

Sunshine tour championship: Jean Paul Strydom 55-1

Puerto Rico Open: Tim Wilkinson 66-1

All each-way

zimmermania · 20-02-2020 2:49am

A tenner ew P Casey without Dusti Rory Rahm and Thomas 25 to 1 5 places Pp.

A fiver ew J Wagner 100 to 1 Puerto Rico open for an interest.Will be keeping an eye on it in the sunny Algarve sat and sunday as I escape the crap weather here.

The real mccoy 91 · 20-02-2020 6:16pm

Dechambeau 33/1
Jazz 140/1
Leishmann 50/1

My 3 for this week

The real mccoy 91 · 23-02-2020 7:37pm

Deshambles showed up on the 5th yesterday looks to have blown his chance. Gonna have a few bob on Hatton without Reed and Thomas each way 3 places @20/1

IAMAMORON · 24-02-2020 2:24pm

I cannot believe that Mcllroy is so short for the masters. I get that they are covering their arse from the ew money, but given most are only offering 5 places he really is no value. I personally would love to see him get into contention again for a masters. But you could not be backing him at those prices.

I have had small nibbles for both Sawgrass 80's and the Masters 125's on Erik Van Rooyen. He keeps turning up and South Africans always have great bottle.

Pogue eile · 25-02-2020 3:48pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I cannot believe that Mcllroy is so short for the masters. I get that they are covering their arse from the ew money, but given most are only offering 5 places he really is no value. I personally would love to see him get into contention again for a masters. But you could not be backing him at those prices.

I have had small nibbles for both Sawgrass 80's and the Masters 125's on Erik Van Rooyen. He keeps turning up and South Africans always have great bottle.

World Number 1, in top form, Top 10 five of the last six years at the Masters, I certainly wouldn't want to lay him at any bigger than 8's, price seems just about right but no reason to back him now, will be lots of extra place value that week.

Iang87 · 26-02-2020 2:34pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

World Number 1, in top form, Top 10 five of the last six years at the Masters, I certainly wouldn't want to lay him at any bigger than 8's, price seems just about right but no reason to back him now, will be lots of extra place value that week.

You're 100% correct in your assessment but isn't it crazy that i don't recall him in contention to win the tournaments where he finished top 10 in that time

IAMAMORON · 26-02-2020 2:59pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

World Number 1, in top form, Top 10 five of the last six years at the Masters, I certainly wouldn't want to lay him at any bigger than 8's, price seems just about right but no reason to back him now, will be lots of extra place value that week.

As a punter I am not seeing any value in his price. He looks to have developed a poor mental game as he has gotten older. He was a far braver player when he was younger. It happens. He looks to be doubting his short game. The 8's available at 5 places is atrocious.

Surely he will shorten when the extra places go in?

Pogue eile · 26-02-2020 3:14pm

Iang87 wrote: »

You're 100% correct in your assessment but isn't it crazy that i don't recall him in contention to win the tournaments where he finished top 10 in that time

I think that particular stat is over played a little, just like those that say he can't deliver from the final group on Sunday. Of the 6 tournaments in question I would say in 2018 he was in 2nd going into the final 18, definitely in contention. 2016 he was 2nd at half way again was a short priced fav at the time so definitely in contention. 2015 was 5th going into the final round, yes way behind the runaway leader but they all were really no one ever got into contention in that one apart from the winner. 2019 and 2014 are the ones that fit your description, hot 4th round to soar through the field.

Thing is you still get paid the place part no matter where he came from, I get that you are saying that from your memory the win part is as good as dead from an early point but that's actually not been the case at all.

Don't get me wrong I am not for a second advocating backing him at 8/1 but not a hope in hell I would want to lay him any bigger.

Pogue eile · 26-02-2020 3:16pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

As a punter I am not seeing any value in his price. He looks to have developed a poor mental game as he has gotten older. He was a far braver player when he was younger. It happens. He looks to be doubting his short game. The 8's available at 5 places is atrocious.

Pogue eile wrote: »

Don't get me wrong I am not for a second advocating backing him at 8/1 but not a hope in hell I would want to lay him any bigger.

See my reply to Iang87 - I am also not seeing any obvious value, nor would I want to lay him at any bigger, the price is pretty much exactly what it should be. All in my opinion of course.

zimmermania · 27-02-2020 2:37am

Backed Luiten to finish in top 10 at 11 to 5 in the Oman contest as he seems to like it there.

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-02-2020 3:08pm

Couple of Italian lads are doing very well in Oman for the European Tour, however would only back as far as end of R2.

IAMAMORON · 01-03-2020 1:25pm

Have backed 3 at prices to see who survives the Bear Trap in Florida tonight.

While Fleetwood's Dendrophobia should not be an issue, he does have minor bottling issues which the Trap has the potential to expose.

I have had small ew's on 3 players within shooting distance. Russell Henley (35's) former winner needs 4 shots but that is a one hole swing around the Bear Trap. I also went Byeong Hun An at 66's, he is classy at best.

Also at a fatter price I couldn't get away from major winner Jason Dufner at 150/1. He will be finished an hour before the leaders but if he shoots another 68 or better he could sit back and watch them crawl over the line. He has oodles of bottle so he is well capable of navigating the Trap.

I thought Luke Donald's price was big as well at 16's. I have not made up my mind yet, but 2 shots is nothing around there, especially with the Bear Trap. I think if I win a few bob on the soccer this afternoon I might have a go at win only. he either shoots 67 or 77, we simply can't tell yet.

zimmermania · 01-03-2020 9:09pm

Fleetwood looks strong but i have to hope he falters as i have backed Im at 12s ew 3 places 1/4.

zimmermania · 02-03-2020 1:13am

zimmermania wrote: »

Fleetwood looks strong but i have to hope he falters as i have backed Im at 12s ew 3 places 1/4.

IM hung on.

zimmermania · 05-03-2020 2:50am

Im 22 to1 Pp 10ew
An 35 to 1Pp 10ew
Cabrero Bello 7 to1 to finish top 10 Pp 10.
Arnold Palmer.

10 ew G Green 30 to 1 Qatar masters.

The real mccoy 91 · 05-03-2020 9:48am

Stenson 35/1
Koepka 25/1
Schauffele 18/1

Bit of a leap of faith on koepka but surely his form has to pick up a bit before the masters. Stenson has a lovely record here and Xander seems to save his best weeks for big tournaments with strong fields

zimmermania · 08-03-2020 9:48pm

Some carnage in the golf,i am hoping Im can do it again for me this week but all nerves seem to be jangling.

The real mccoy 91 · 12-03-2020 10:22am

Dechambeau 20/1
Kuchar 50/1
Berger 66/1

My darts for this week all 7 places

4068ac1elhodqr · 12-03-2020 2:51pm

Won't be backing any Italians this week.

10pl is nuts, still 8pl even in running for R1-live.

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-03-2020 2:36pm

Stick ball is over, in case someone should sneeze or fall over
at least until July, my oh my.
Void are any bets, likely same too for balls in back of nets
Save your money, for Leminsip and honey.

ShamoBuc · 13-03-2020 10:07pm

Less of the chatter and nonsense please.

zimmermania · 01-07-2020 7:19pm

Not as many big names this week at the tricky North Course at Detroit golf club.

Accuracy is required at this course where those who hit it out of sight do not have such a big advantage.

I took a simple straightforward approach by backing 3 players who have form here.

Rory Sabbatini has 3 top tens here fom 5 starts and was 2nd here last year,a tenner ew at 40/1 PP 8 places.
Sabbatini has also played well in the 2 tounaments he played since golf re-started and looks a sound ew bet.

Doc Redman is a 22 year old who was a monday qualifier for for this last year and did very well finishing 2nd.
The young man has a big future,in two recent spins he was 21st at the Heritage and 11th at the Travellers where he was ranked 3rd from tee to green,a tenner ew at 40/1.

My third bet is a fiver ew Brian Stuard who also has form here at 90/1 making a total 50 euro invested.

4068ac1elhodqr · 01-07-2020 7:42pm

Sky have a decent offering, you can exculde the top8, then opt for a wild cards and still get 5pl and at 1/4.
Using this, have a wide array of wildcards on the mixed accas.

The W/O(8) market, ignores/nulls the results of any of these chaps:
Bryson Dechambeau / Webb Simpson / Patrick Reed / Tyrrell Hatton / Hideki Matsuyama / Viktor Hovland / Sung-Jae Im / Tony Finau
Subject to dead heats, some bigger wildcards could still deliver 40-50/1 just for their place positions.

unplayable · 01-07-2020 9:52pm

Gwan Seamus power for the craic

Hovland is short but I like him.
Bit of juice in fowler price I think.
List won recently on kornferry price seems big.
EVR likes birdie fests.

GL to all.

sydthebeat · 02-07-2020 8:45am

A few long shots for the weekend.

Power and a couple of local boys e/w

Power @400
Stuard @90
Brehm @400

abarkie · 02-07-2020 9:34am

Anyone know where you can get previous years form from for tournaments?

Used to use smartgolfbets.com bur he has gone to subscription model of $100 a year

Not the cost that bothers me but will it continue

Always use prior years, so would be great if anyone knows where can get spreadsheets or sites detailing this

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-07-2020 2:58pm

Just for the lols, slapped a couple of wildcards on the tail end of a small mixed e/w acca.
Both in the upper end of the leaderboard, probably unlikely to place, even so, a small chance with very appealing digits:
Kevin Chappell 200/1 (PP), Scott Harrington 400/1 (Sky) or 100/1 W/O W&D. All 3pl on 1/4 terms.

chancer007 · 06-07-2020 5:21pm

abarkie wrote: »

Anyone know where you can get previous years form from for tournaments?

Used to use smartgolfbets.com bur he has gone to subscription model of $100 a year

Not the cost that bothers me but will it continue

Always use prior years, so would be great if anyone knows where can get spreadsheets or sites detailing this

just click on year & then the tournament
https://www.espn.co.uk/golf/leaderboard/_/tournamentId/401056553

chancer007 · 07-07-2020 9:21am

also came across this last night:
https://jpegtips.wordpress.com/form-spreadsheets/
great data if your having a abet this week..

abarkie · 07-07-2020 9:13pm

chancer007 wrote: »

also came across this last night:
https://jpegtips.wordpress.com/form-spreadsheets/
great data if your having a abet this week..

This is very similar to smartgolfbets.com

Thank you

The Golf Tips Thread

Comments