Recession is back baby

Man with broke phone · 07-09-2020 9:16pm

Good apprentices are usually the last to go. The boys and men (and women) who miss alot if days will go first. The lads who make high profile mistakes will follow. Apprentices are usually kept until they sere their time.

ChikiChiki · 07-09-2020 9:24pm

landofthetree wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tech-giant-google-pulls-out-of-office-deal-in-dublin-docklands-1.4348998?mode=amp

Commercial property in Dublin is beyond screwed.

Who is going to want 202,000 sq ft of offices space in Dublin?

What will Marlet do now? The interest alone on the development must be huge?

Free article on Bloomberg about the meltdown of Dublin commercial property

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-07/google-abandons-plan-to-rent-dublin-office-for-2-000-workers

Thats a gigantic withdrawal, expect more like it. Surely existing leaseholders will see the opportunity off the back of this to get significant reductions in their terms. Ripple effect.

SEPT 23 1989 · 07-09-2020 9:26pm

tonycascarino wrote: »

A seemingly no deal Brexit will be on the way at the end of the year to finish us off anyway

Perfect storm

ChikiChiki · 07-09-2020 9:27pm

Feisar wrote: »

They are hiring because they need you now. If they don’t need you in a months time they’ll let you go and think nothing of it.

Exactly, whenever a company calls you an asset, just be aware that assets are disposable off the accounts too.

Goes for every single company on this planet.

Mongfinder General · 07-09-2020 9:31pm

Deebles McBeebles wrote: »

Strange way to take that post. I see nothing wrong in someone being happy their job is safe, although their pay may not be. We're not going to start this public v private war again at the first sign of an economic downturn are we?

Restoration, P!

Foolish move reneging on a pay deal with nurses. The 2% rise next month will see 60% clawed back In taxes. PAYE + PRSI + USC + Pension levy. Government took the piss out of unions on that one.

4068ac1elhodqr · 07-09-2020 9:33pm

Meanwhile, Chinyyaaa, home of the batsoup-wetmarket is expecting circa 7%+ for the end of year.
Asside from a Q1 negative blip, they were up and running again with positive growth for their Q2.

Plumbthedepths · 07-09-2020 9:34pm

Orlando Teeny Rhinestone wrote: »

Meanwhile, Chinyyaaa, home of the batsoup-wetmarket is expecting circa 7%+ for the end of year.
Asside from a Q1 negative blip, they were up and running again with positive growth for their Q2.

Massive sales of PPE.

Aron722 · 07-09-2020 9:35pm

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

My son is only a Guard 2 and half years, he's quite happy on circa 46k a year.
Retained fire fighters usually have full time jobs as did I when I was in it so did the rest of the lads. So none of us were relaying on the income for a living, long story short if you employer hasn't got the funds to increase your pay what's the alternative?

Wouldn't call it a great salary considering the job . Around 700 a week
Must be doing alot of over time, as takes 15 years to be on 49k

Plumbthedepths · 07-09-2020 9:39pm

Aron722 wrote: »

Wouldn't call it a great salary considering the job . Around 700 a week
Must be doing alot of over time, as takes 15 years to be on 49k

He seems to enjoy it so I imagine that has a value too.
He holds a master's so his basic was increased by I think 2 points on the scale. I never got into details with him about it. I think for a 29 year old it's not a bad wage in what's a secure and pensionable job.

07-09-2020 9:41pm

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

From memory mortgage lending will stop first, house prices will tank.

Great. My rent might go down.

DangerScouse · 07-09-2020 9:47pm

tonycascarino wrote: »

A seemingly no deal Brexit will be on the way at the end of the year to finish us off anyway

Will make 2008 seem like a walk in the park unfortunately

Noah G · 07-09-2020 9:56pm

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Exactly, whenever a company calls you an asset, just be aware that assets are disposable off the accounts too.

Goes for every single company on this planet.

True I still don't think I will get let go , I cant see it getting that bad sure just have to wait and see . Main goal would be to start my own business once qualified.

nthclare · 07-09-2020 10:03pm

salonfire wrote: »

The Irish State is forever repaying bonds as they fall due, even when it was running massive losses. Should those bondholders have been burned too, meaning no-one would lend to the State again?

How would we fund the pandemic spending in that case?

How about you engage your brain before parrotting something you heard someone else say but that you have no clue about.

Can you rephrase your response, sounds like you're a tad triggered by my mistake.

How about you learn more manners and accept I made a mistake instead of having that sociopathic attitude were all tired of.

Of course people will lend to the state again, but sure you're entitled to your agitated reaction to my post.

We won't go down any rabbit holes here just for you to get a few likes and validation from people like yourself.

We'll leave it there then

Necro · 07-09-2020 10:09pm

salonfire wrote: »

The Irish State is forever repaying bonds as they fall due, even when it was running massive losses. Should those bondholders have been burned too, meaning no-one would lend to the State again?

How would we fund the pandemic spending in that case?

How about you engage your brain before parrotting something you heard someone else say but that you have no clue about.

nthclare wrote: »

Can you rephrase your response, sounds like you're a tad triggered by my mistake.

How about you learn more manners and accept I made a mistake instead of having that sociopathic attitude were all tired of.

Of course people will lend to the state again, but sure you're entitled to your agitated reaction to my post.

We won't go down any rabbit holes here just for you to get a few likes and validation from people like yourself.

We'll leave it there then

Mod:

Indeed you both will, if you can't engage in civil discussion then don't post in this thread.

Man with broke phone · 07-09-2020 10:13pm

Noah G wrote: »

True I still don't think I will get let go , I cant see it getting that bad sure just have to wait and see . Main goal would be to start my own business once qualified.

In reality if you want a successful business after getting qualified you will really need a few years building a customer base. Small jobs in peoples houses is a mugs game. Every task you do keep a watch of how much time it takes. At the moment hotel rooms and office spaces have successful self employed electricians who can price how many men need to be there for how long. If yiu get it wrong you lose money. If you are desperate for the work you price it too lowand lose money.

If you go out in a van after 4 years chances are you will be scratching a living sometimes and having good weeks and bad weeks.

Get in the biggest company you can. Do good quality work. Be available for any overtime possible. Dont fall out with anybody. Ten years from being qualified you could be on 100 000 a year wage with nixers if you really want them. Recessions come and go. Lads earn that when its good then nothing when its bad.

Be a gentleman as well. Its the most important thing. If the gaffer sees you spitting on the street or leaving your breakfast roll wrapper on the floor even once you may aswell burn down a hotel with bad wiring because you will never get any sort of promotion after it. Remember as big rough building man an important skill to learn is making everybody in your company feel at ease and not threatened. If you want to act the hard man go to an agency and get work with all the lads who act like theyve been to jail. No middle aged middle class woman will pay you 200 euro to change her light fixture.

Montage of Feck · 07-09-2020 10:14pm

The US vulture funds are running wild here at the moment if the arse falls out of housing market they'll probably hover up the lot.

nthclare · 07-09-2020 10:16pm

Necro wrote: »

Mod:

Indeed you both will, if you can't engage in civil discussion then don't post in this thread.

Thanks point taken.
I'll leave it there and just engage with people who are more civil.
I should have ignored him, my own fault for reacting.
I won't do it again.

DangerScouse · 07-09-2020 10:19pm

Montage of Feck wrote: »

The US vulture funds are running wild here at the moment if the arse falls out of housing market they'll probably hover up the lot.

A lot of Chinese buying up property also.

buried · 07-09-2020 10:22pm

I knew it when the breakfast rolls was going down in price the $hite was heading deep

07-09-2020 10:23pm

Montage of Feck wrote: »

The US vulture funds are running wild here at the moment if the arse falls out of housing market they'll probably hover up the lot.

this is the fear

if the govt allows property to tank and be bought up by corporate interests there will rightly be havoc, and FG especially should take the brunt of it after setting the ground for it

Geuze · 07-09-2020 10:24pm

listermint wrote: »

As far as I know the definition of recession is negative growth for 2 consecutive quarters.

Q1 was plus 1.2%
Q2 was negative.

So I don't think that fits the definition. Hence my confusion about the premise of this thread.

Q1 was revised downwards in the Q2 release.

dulceetdecorum · 07-09-2020 10:41pm

DangerScouse wrote: »

Knew two lads who took their own lives in the last recession so I look back at it with a great sadness despite never losing my job or suffering financially personally.

Hope we aren't going back to that now

Was too young to really remember the last recession but a lot of people are struggling with problems that dont crop up if they have a distraction such as work or school, I myself had a suicide attempt and was struggling with drugs very badly. Things are looking up now but holy God, it's terrible where your mind can take you and I really underestimated how important being accountable for something is, you just don't know what to do with yourself without a job or somewhere to be during the day.

coolbeans · 07-09-2020 10:41pm

Errashareesh wrote: »

Maybe they're joking but yeah there are people who genuinely do think that. You're letting your country down if you don't stay here on the dole - totally bizarre.

It's pure begrudgery. Some fellas would prefer others to stay on the dole than go abroad and better themselves. Yer man who made the point, Greta I think, got nine thanks too. There's plenty of that type out there. I'd describe them as toxic.

ShatterAlan · 07-09-2020 10:42pm

Mr.S wrote: »

But the bounceback, the bounceback!

This is unique recession though, is it not? In the sense that some industries are largely unaffected and some people are actually better off due to income remaining stable / increasing and daily expenditure dropping?

(I am not a financial expert, thank god)

There is NO recession-proof job.

NONE.

Even undertakers (and we all die) will suffer because there's a shortage of imported wood to make coffins and forget those big beauquets of flowers that are in short supply too.

07-09-2020 10:43pm

Anyone think it will be possible to migrate anywhere else or will everywhere be closed off to us. I hear people are still making serious cash in Oz.

landofthetree · 07-09-2020 10:51pm

6541 wrote: »

Anyone think it will be possible to migrate anywhere else or will everywhere be closed off to us. I hear people are still making serious cash in Oz.

Well if there is a vaccine by early 2021 they will be opening up visas to the usual groups.

Oz is probably the best bet for an Irish person as they will have a quick recovery. They have a low national debt and wont need a decade of austerity like we might.

landofthetree · 07-09-2020 10:52pm

ShatterAlan wrote: »

There is NO recession-proof job.

NONE.

Even undertakers (and we all die) will suffer because there's a shortage of imported wood to make coffins and forget those big beauquets of flowers that are in short supply too.

Debt collector and debt management companies? They might do better in a recession?

Errashareesh · 07-09-2020 10:53pm

dulceetdecorum wrote: »

Was too young to really remember the last recession but a lot of people are struggling with problems that dont crop up if they have a distraction such as work or school, I myself had a suicide attempt and was struggling with drugs very badly. Things are looking up now but holy God, it's terrible where your mind can take you and I really underestimated how important being accountable for something is, you just don't know what to do with yourself without a job or somewhere to be during the day.

You're amazingly articulate for someone so young. I'm so sorry to read you went through that. Things can be crap at that stage of your life without all this carry-on. Delighted things are on the up.

Errashareesh · 07-09-2020 10:55pm

ShatterAlan wrote: »

There is NO recession-proof job.

NONE.

Even undertakers (and we all die) will suffer because there's a shortage of imported wood to make coffins and forget those big beauquets of flowers that are in short supply too.

What about tax related jobs? Certain public sector functions?

Risteard81 · 07-09-2020 11:08pm

tonycascarino wrote: »

A seemingly no deal Brexit will be on the way at the end of the year to finish us off anyway

A No Deal Brexit is the only positive thing in this.

It will help to sentence the so-called "EU" to death, which is entirely welcome.

shooter69 · 07-09-2020 11:11pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tech-giant-google-pulls-out-of-office-deal-in-dublin-docklands-1.4348998?mode=amp

Not a good sign of things to come..

IAMAMORON · 07-09-2020 11:19pm

I think we bounce out of this recession a lot quicker than the credit crunch. It is a different animal. As soon as the lockdown measures are eased you will see things back to normal.

Private companies however will experience different levels of growth and no doubt will use this crisis as an excuse to cull unwanted staff. If your boss does not like you hang as tough as you can, you are goosed though.

That does not mean that jobs will not be available however. All companies need to run at an efficient capacity to enable output. But they will also have seen where savings are capable. If you are or were a passenger hold tight.

lsjmhar · 07-09-2020 11:26pm

Risteard81 wrote: »

A No Deal Brexit is the only positive thing in this.

It will help to sentence the so-called "EU" to death, which is entirely welcome.

This is gonna be a popular opinion!! Lol!!

jamesbondings · 07-09-2020 11:39pm

shooter69 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tech-giant-google-pulls-out-of-office-deal-in-dublin-docklands-1.4348998?mode=amp

Not a good sign of things to come..

Not really. I mean tech companies will embrace work from home. The jobs will still be here but I suppose the tertiary services may suffer.

Tuco88 · 07-09-2020 11:59pm

I can't believe some of the lessons we learned the hard way last recession that we forgot.

Its the type that collect and spend nothing in boom times are the crafty type... Any person with cash will be rubbing his hands soon, cheap property, cars and equipment. Remember the auctions???

If the construction goes its going to be a bad one. Just because you hear the projects for the next 2 years talk means nothing. You'll be surprised how they will can the lot in two weeks.

Can/Aus citizenship is the golden ticket now.

Eleven Benevolent Elephants · 08-09-2020 12:19am

punisher5112 wrote: »

If I hear your lucky to have a job I'm going down for multiple homicide.....

Oh also I pay your wages and how long will the next one be or you're early.....

You're in a safe and secure job but it's not one I could ever do.

You need an iron will to deal with the crap you do on a daily basis. Bus drivers deserve our respect.

Atlantic Dawn · 08-09-2020 12:20am

The trawlers are starting to follow the seagulls.

Eleven Benevolent Elephants · 08-09-2020 12:20am

Risteard81 wrote: »

A No Deal Brexit is the only positive thing in this.

It will help to sentence the so-called "EU" to death, which is entirely welcome.

I take it you weren't alive pre 1973 and you've never read a history book.

PommieBast · 08-09-2020 4:40am

Short of some bailout of rent/rates/bills a large portion of companies are going to be insolvent. Not going to be pretty at the end of the financial year when accounts have to be signed off.

BuboBubo · 08-09-2020 4:46am

2021.

We are going to be taxed to death. It'll be like they dug up Squire Haughey to tell us we are living beyond our means.

KungPao · 08-09-2020 5:36am

Don’t worry folks. I’ve set up a Go Fund Me.

I’m sure the people of Earth will pull together for us.

ILoveYourVibes · 08-09-2020 5:40am

This recession isn't going to end until there is a vaccine. And one that knocks it out. That will be prob at least 2/4 years. Maybe more.

08-09-2020 9:05am

BuboBubo wrote: »

2021.

We are going to be taxed to death. It'll be like they dug up Squire Haughey to tell us we are living beyond our means.

Will be livestream on YouTube, Facebook.

08-09-2020 9:13am

It's times like these which is why I chose to work in the public sector.

ChikiChiki · 08-09-2020 9:14am

Deleted User wrote: »

It's times like these which is why I chose to work in the public sector.

****ing hell, like a broken record at this point. When you were choosing your career I suppose you thought to yourself "Once in a 100 year pandemic due so I'll join the PS".

Well done you. :rolleyes:

Gregor Samsa · 08-09-2020 9:16am

Deleted User wrote: »

It's times like these which is why I chose to work in the public sector.

Those with shorter memories might be reminded that the last recession had a significant negative effect on the public sector.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/warning-on-public-sector-job-losses-1.878315

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 08-09-2020 9:16am

Pauliedragon wrote: »

I never understood this line of thinking. Surely someone who feels that the only way to earn a living is to leave is not a problem. Plus everyone on welfare who leaves the country is saving a skint government money. What's wrong with that?

In some cultures the people stay and help to rebuild their country/community when bad things happen.

Here in Ireland, we seem to have a culture where many of our people think it's okay to run away and leave their problems behind. Different cultures, different values.

Each to their own. But imho, if you love the place where you come from, you should want to stay and be part of the rebuild/recovery.

Gregor Samsa · 08-09-2020 9:19am

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

In some cultures the people stay and help to rebuild their country/community when bad things happen.

Can you name the cultures in which the young people voluntarily stay at home unemployed en-mass out of patriotic duty during a recession? Or are you talking about the cleanup after flooding and volcanos and stuff?

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 08-09-2020 9:25am

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

Can you name the cultures in which the young people voluntarily stay at home unemployed en-mass out of patriotic duty during a recession? Or are you talking about the cleanup after flooding and volcanos and stuff?

There's plenty of countries whose economy has been pretty rubbish for decades, but most of the people stick around and don't run away.

And they especially don't run away, and then throw around empty rhetoric about how they love their country... despite having no interest in actually living there. Like many of our fine patriots do!

ChikiChiki · 08-09-2020 9:26am

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

In some cultures the people stay and help to rebuild their country/community when bad things happen.

Here in Ireland, we seem to have a culture where many of our people think it's okay to run away and leave their problems behind. Different cultures, different values.

Each to their own. But imho, if you love the place where you come from, you should want to stay and be part of the rebuild/recovery.

Not entirely sure you understand the problem with huge numbers of unemployed remaining on home soil. The argument is silly.

And to further elaborate - some economies are perenially in the toilet. People cannot leave these countries because they are poor. Luckily in Ireland, we have the means to go elsewhere to better our lives when we need to instead of hanging around damaging our mental health and letting a huge experience gap grow on the CV.

Recession is back baby

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