Summer 2015 - Long Range Forecasts

ComfortKid wrote: »

The weather can't be predicted for more than a few days, even at that it's rarely right. Any of these long range forecasts are completely made up. But going from previous years, usually when we get a sunny spring like this we have a fairly wet summer.

You're right 4 days ahead is as accurate as it gets but you may as well be talking to a brick wall trying to get it into a lot of peoples heads.

What sunny spring? Nothing but a cold miserable spring down south.

Right to everyone who doesnt believe in long range weather why are ye on this thread begrudging people who have a common interest in predicting long range weather for the summer.

For the past 4 weeks on 5 days met eireann got the weather forecast COMPLETELY wrong the DAY before. Three sundays in the past 2 months that were forecast wet on the saturday were indeed sunny everywhere .

Rainfall of 15mm that was presicted was trace.

Now im not picking on met eireann coz theyr class but forecasting weather can never be exact. Thats why let long rangw forecasts exist.

At the very least they are a guide to the weather that commonly occurs during the season at most they can predict obvious trends such as a barage of low pressures at present and a high pressure build in early june

Sorry for my poor typing. Samsung tiny letters

allthedoyles wrote: »

Well looking at June on accu , it seems to be a month of sunny spells and scattered showers with temps of 18-20 degrees .

Oh dear what did I say about forecasting after 4-5 days :mad:

A wet and windy may

Keeps the heat a bay

The same cold every day

For heating you must pay

NO sunshine not a ray

IRELAND says yes to gay

Lumi wrote: »

The Netweather long-range forecast up to July is available here

May - wetter than average, temps close to or slightly warmer than average
June - warmer than average, rainfall close to normal
July - wetter than average

Take this with the usual great big pinch of salt :pac:

May temperatures above average ciuldnt have been more wrong

July is looking pretty good on my accuweather app. Was not expecting yesterday..starting to think I might give up on any predictions, expect the worst and just enjoy any sunny days that come along

I think we are about to get some pay back for the last 2 months of grimness. Tonights ECM is a cracker with the country spending at least 10 days from Monday bathed in TM air giving temps into the 20's for nearly all(bar some coastal areas in the W and S at times). In fact its been many many years since we've seen a set up like this ie. the last 2 summer heat was more home grown under static HP centres with the odd bit of warm air coming in off the continent.

That idiot from up here gets press time every year.
Can't blame the idiot himself, people keep asking him for his opinion.

I wish they'd stop.

delahuntv wrote: »

Here we go - the most famous of all long range forecasters has spoken!

From Irish Times -

Donegal postman Michael Gallagher is saying all signs indicate we have a very good summer ahead.

Mr Gallagher, who has developed his weather forecasting expertise during his more than 40 years of working as postman, says a cold May is a strong indicator of a nice summer. His predictions are based on the behaviour of the Donegal wildlife, he says.

“Nature and animals are very knowledgeable, they know what’s going to happen with the weather,” said Mr Gallagher. “They have an instinct which we as human beings don’t have.”

He says sheep and cattle tend to retreat down the mountains in search of shelter when a cold snap is on the way. He added that the cry of the curlew bird is a traditional sign that rain is on the cards.

With no curlews audible and livestock exploring the upper plains of the Donegal hills, it looks like the good weather is here to stay, he says.

However, he warns that hot weather will inevitably bring heavy downpours and plenty of thunder.

That went well didn't it

joujoujou wrote: »

Sorry to say - one device indicates opposite:



Please forgive me, couldn't resist.

How come the paper never goes back to him and asks the question "What the hell happened to our summer Michael"

He should really stick to delivering the post, end of

* cancels trip to Donegal

pauldry wrote: »

2015 will be the coldest year for at least 50 in Ireland even though ROW will have warmest on record! I think 1958 is the last year as cold as 2015

Its Creepy.

Here in Seattle, where we normally have a climate very similar to Ireland, we've broken the record for days over 30 this year. The nights of the bedroom being 25 degs are getting wearying. Fans everywhere. Water spritzers in the fridge.

No rain for...2 months? There was a day of drizzle a few weeks ago. There's massive fires in the mountains around the city too.

And this is the second year like this. Practically no cold weather at all this winter, I can remember maybe five or six frosty mornings. total.

Gonzo wrote: »

Have to admit we get the rough end of the stick almost every year compared to any other European country. Summer has the entire continent at 25-42C with Ireland and perhaps the western fringes of UK & Scotland struggling on 16C all summer.
Winter see's a reverse of this with most of Europe and sometimes England, Scotland & Wales with plenty of snow and winter wonderland's while Ireland enjoys 13C, wind and mist.

I have found the last few winters to be quite reasonable though, generally dry and often clearer than summer days.

This is based on my daily commute involving cycling to and from Dart station and I can count the number of days I needed rain gear on one hand but the summer has been much worse.