Summer 2015 - Long Range Forecasts

johndeere3350

Anyone see any forecasts?
I suppose it may be a bit too early

ComfortKid

The weather can't be predicted for more than a few days, even at that it's rarely right. Any of these long range forecasts are completely made up. But going from previous years, usually when we get a sunny spring like this we have a fairly wet summer.

NIMAN

What he/she said.

The most advanced weather forecasting can only see 10 days ahead, and thats not 100% accurate.

Any story you see now in the media that "Ireland due to bask in a summer heatwave" is all populist nonsense.

And don't listen to people chatting about them "hearing the swallows singing in March so that means its going to be a great summer" - again all bullplop.

ComfortKid

NIMAN wrote:

What he/she said.

NIMAN wrote:

The most advanced weather forecasting can only see 10 days ahead, and thats not 100% accurate.

NIMAN wrote:

Any story you see now in the media that "Ireland due to bask in a summer heatwave" is all populist nonsense.

What was the point of that? I'm sure he/she could understand what I said.

johndeere3350

ComfortKid wrote: »

The weather can't be predicted for more than a few days, even at that it's rarely right. Any of these long range forecasts are completely made up. But going from previous years, usually when we get a sunny spring like this we have a fairly wet summer.

Aye I know that but didn't MT have a summer forecast up for a few years??
I certainly recall reading one in 2013 anyway and it was bang on for the summer.

I wouldnt agree last year we got a touch of warmth like we have now before it turned ****e again.

NIMAN

ComfortKid wrote: »

What was the point of that? I'm sure he/she could understand what I said.

Get over yourself
:rolleyes:

So the thread should be closed after you replied?

NIMAN

johndeere3350 wrote: »

Aye I know that but didn't MT have a summer forecast up for a few years??
I certainly recall reading one in 2013 anyway and it was bang on for the summer.

I wouldnt agree last year we got a touch of warmth like we have now before it turned ****e again.

Guess often enough and you'll get it right sometimes.

ComfortKid

NIMAN wrote:

So the thread should be closed after you replied?

No. I didn't say that. You said "Here's what he/she said" and then repeated what I had said in different words.

ComfortKid

johndeere3350 wrote:

Aye I know that but didn't MT have a summer forecast up for a few years?? I certainly recall reading one in 2013 anyway and it was bang on for the summer.

In fairness, when they tell us every year is going to be a scorcher, they're bound to get it right once. Hope these last few weeks isn't our summer anyway.

Cee-Jay-Cee

ComfortKid wrote: »

No. I didn't say that. You said "Here's what he/she said" and then repeated what I had said in different words.

So what???? Quit clogging up a topical subject with petty issues.

ComfortKid

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote:

So what???? Quit clogging up a topical subject with petty issues.

Why would he put "Here's what he/she said" ?

And il clog up what I like,thanks.

NIMAN

ComfortKid wrote: »

In fairness, when they tell us every year is going to be a scorcher, they're bound to get it right once. Hope these last few weeks isn't our summer anyway.

Why are you repeating what I said in #7 just using different words?;)

Lumi

Quit the bickering guys.
If you have an issue with a post then report it and let the mods deal with it - that's what we're here for.

Thanks

NIMAN

Let's hug and make up, what you say!

gerrybhoy

get a room folks, maybe the heat is getting to some of us;)

Wont be long til the Express has the "Ireland to bask in 80+ degree's heat"

"Breaking all records since records began"


Then we will be ball deep in snow

Lumi

The Netweather long-range forecast up to July is available here

May - wetter than average, temps close to or slightly warmer than average
June - warmer than average, rainfall close to normal
July - wetter than average

Take this with the usual great big pinch of salt :pac:

NIMAN

But Lumi, is that website any more credible than me or you having a guess?

Lumi

NIMAN wrote: »

But Lumi, is that website any more credible than me or you having a guess?

You mean is the long-range forecast credible and not the website because as a company Netweather are well respected.

The beginning of the forecast states that

It is important to bear in mind that forecasting at this range is still in its infancy so can effectively be considered experimental.

so that probably answers your question. Personally I don't put much faith in long-range seasonal forecasts but each to their own. The OP asked a question and I pointed them in the direction of one

NIMAN

I wonder what Evelyn Cusack would have to say about it!

Rikand

NIMAN wrote: »

I wonder what Evelyn Cusack would have to say about it!

5starpool

ComfortKid wrote: »

No. I didn't say that. You said "Here's what he/she said" and then repeated what I had said in different words.

Sorry to drag this up again, but I think there was just confusion on your part.

They didn't post to rephrase you. The line "What he/she said" is basically just NIMAN saying that he/she agrees with you, and then they gave their own thoughts (which happened to agree with you). If instead of "What he/she said" they posted "I agree with the poster above" and then said everythnig else they said I assume you wouldn't have had an issue? That is essentially what happened, and it's just a misunderstanding on your part imo.

Sorry mods, just adding (I hope) clarity that might help ComfortKid in future in case it happens again.

ComfortKid

5starpool wrote:

They didn't post to rephrase you. The line "What he/she said" is basically just NIMAN saying that he/she agrees with you, and then they gave their own thoughts (which happened to agree with you). If instead of "What he/she said" they posted "I agree with the poster above" and then said everythnig else they said I assume you wouldn't have had an issue? That is essentially what happened, and it's just a misunderstanding on your part imo.

Aha. Thank you, And apologies to NIMAN if this is the case.

KungPao

gerrybhoy wrote: »

get a room folks, maybe the heat is getting to some of us;)

Wont be long til the Express has the "Ireland to bask in 80+ degree's heat"

"Breaking all records since records began"


Then we will be ball deep in snow

Ah, the 'ol 'let's use Fahrenheit to make it seem hotter than it is' trick, that the media love. Then you convert it to a measurement you actually understand and are a little disappointed!

Still, I'd be over the moon for 26 degrees + spell. I really want a nice summer! After hot spells last summer and going away in December, I have gotten quite used to wearing shorts.

Fingers crossed.

Speak Now

ComfortKid wrote: »

The weather can't be predicted for more than a few days, even at that it's rarely right. Any of these long range forecasts are completely made up. But going from previous years, usually when we get a sunny spring like this we have a fairly wet summer.

Worst long range forecast ever unless you have the stats to back it up

ComfortKid

It wasn't a forecast. Thats predicting the future, I'm just stating what happened before.

M.T. Cranium

Okay then, I read through this discussion and one thing I disagree about is having made the same forecasts each summer (or winter) hoping for a hit. That has not been my procedure nor has it been my objective. Anyone can look back and see that different years have had different forecasts (and different outcomes in terms of accuracy). Somebody mentioned those allegations in the context of the 2013 summer forecast which was (accurately as it turned out) for a hot and dry summer.

This summer, I would expect temperatures to average near or just slightly below normal values overall in Ireland, with rainfall varying from below normal in the northwest to slightly above normal in the southeast. I have published elsewhere that I expect it to be quite a wet summer in southern England but with the storm track likely to be a bit to the east of Ireland much of the time, I expect the rainfall regime as stated above.

Sunshine is likely to be close to normal or maybe a bit below normal. As summer is defined to be June, July and August in weather circles, this says nothing about May which is apparently going to be quite a wet, cloudy month with near normal temperatures. I would go with late August or early September as being the best part of this year's summer in Ireland.

So any other opinions about this summer? We will have a contest where you can make some predictions, look for it around mid-May with entries into the first week of June.

Birdnuts

The past 2 summers have been very good - particulary June/July. On the basis that 3 good summers in a row is practically unheard of in this part of the world. I would be pessimistic bout this years effort. Loved to be proved wrong of course!!

johndeere3350

Birdnuts wrote:

The past 2 summers have been very good - particulary June/July. On the basis that 3 good summers in a row is practically unheard of in this part of the world. I would be pessimistic bout this years effort. Loved to be proved wrong of course!!

It doesn't really mean that we will tho.
We could have 10 good ones just as easy as 10 bad ones.

NIMAN

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Okay then, I read through this discussion and one thing I disagree about is having made the same forecasts each summer (or winter) hoping for a hit. That has not been my procedure nor has it been my objective. Anyone can look back and see that different years have had different forecasts (and different outcomes in terms of accuracy). Somebody mentioned those allegations in the context of the 2013 summer forecast which was (accurately as it turned out) for a hot and dry summer.

This summer, I would expect temperatures to average near or just slightly below normal values overall in Ireland, with rainfall varying from below normal in the northwest to slightly above normal in the southeast. I have published elsewhere that I expect it to be quite a wet summer in southern England but with the storm track likely to be a bit to the east of Ireland much of the time, I expect the rainfall regime as stated above.

Sunshine is likely to be close to normal or maybe a bit below normal. As summer is defined to be June, July and August in weather circles, this says nothing about May which is apparently going to be quite a wet, cloudy month with near normal temperatures. I would go with late August or early September as being the best part of this year's summer in Ireland.

So any other opinions about this summer? We will have a contest where you can make some predictions, look for it around mid-May with entries into the first week of June.

MT,

Not trying to be a smart arse here, and I know you are a serious poster on the weather forum and put a lot of effort into your posts, but reading your prediction it sounds slightly generic. Almost like a medium doing a cold reading.

A lot of 'close to normal' entries entries, or 'from below normal to above normal'. Is that not sort of covering all bases?

gothwalk

NIMAN wrote: »

A lot of 'close to normal' entries entries, or 'from below normal to above normal'. Is that not sort of covering all bases?

Well, no. Consider the maths. Averages are calculated over a long term. Very few years (or months within a year) are actually average[1]. Forecasting something to be "about average" is just as valid a forecast as "below average", "far below average", "above average" and "far above average". If you divided up any given weather stat over the last few years (or any stat in anything, pretty nearly!), you'll see about 30% of results in the "average" range, 25% each in "below average" and "above average", and 10% each in "far below" and "far above".

Average does not mean "ah, about the same as it always is", even if that's how people read it.

[1] Ask me about average lifespans in the medieval period, and the frequently repeated statement that few people lived past 40. Go on. I have an earful for anyone who'll listen about middle ages infant mortality and the inability of journalists to understand the word "average".

Clonmel1000

I'm glad MT mentioned that summer in climatic terms is June July and August because May is like October at the moment wet cold breezy rubbish.

M.T. Cranium

The chances of ten consecutive exceptional summers in either a good or bad direction are very low, I would think. If you even allow a wide spread for what you consider to be very warm or cool (I think very dry or wet is really what the discussion was about) and take the one-third of cases at each end of the spectrum, then if these occur at random, looking forward from now the chances are only one in three to the tenth power of either of these outcomes. That is one in 59049. Even the chance of three in a row is only one in 27, but if you take the proposition that the past two were good, then the random chance remains one in three for achieving three in a row.

Even if one accepts some modification of climate trends to be ongoing, it would not greatly affect the chances of having long runs but it might skew the numbers so that there would be a one in 20,000 chance for ten in a row hot summers and a one in 100,000 chance for ten in a row cool summers (or something similar).

As another poster mentions, a prediction of near normal is not a way of avoiding the challenge of this subject, said prediction is just as valid as any other estimate. However, the math of the situation tells you that you can't be more than half the range of possible errors out on such a prediction. Thus over time, predictions of near normal are likely to be proven correct more frequently than others, unless the others have a skill factor in their favour. Just to clarify, I would consider "near normal" on a monthly temperature forecast to be within 0.5 C deg of the long term averages, anything in the range 0.5 to 1.0 is moderately significant as a departure and anything more than 1.0 deg is of considerable significance (or "much above or below" normal). That would be in a maritime temperate climate, one might go double those ranges for qualifying predictions made for a more inland continental climate. More precise definitions would involve standard deviations which I don't have at hand for Irish climate stats but after running this many contests, I think the s.d. for monthly temperature must be fairly close to 0.5 deg and is almost certainly less than 1.0 deg. Last summer was probably about one s.d. warmer than average and the one before it likely two to three s.d. above normal. December 2010 may have been five or six s.d. below normal. An event like that is quite rare. In the comparable U.K. CET the last December in that range was 1890 (120 years before).

Jpmarn

Just commenting what M.T. Cranium is saying about this summer. It would be like 2011 with the jet stream mostly south of us for most of the season. That means that we would be in relatively cool air most of the time with average temperatures down a degree or so. We would still get at least normal sunshine and rainfall. He mentioned that the south of England would be wetter than normal. It probably be much wetter than normal over France and Nothern Spain because of the jet stream would be typically over them.

I'm no expert, but if previous (recent) years are anything to go by, I'm fearing a washout this year. Mainly due to the dry, warm April we just had.

Gonzo

Karsini wrote: »

I'm not expert, but if previous (recent) years are anything to go by, I'm fearing a washout this year. Mainly due to the dry, warm April we just had.

usually a warm, sunny April results in a crap summer and so far May is definitely delivering on the washout! Hopefully this year will be different with a decent June-September.

Oneiric 3

Probability plot for daily IMT* Summer maxima. Unfortunately, as the data is based on mean daily max values only since 2007, the sample size is very small (736 days) but may be just enough to give a rough estimate as to what to expect temp wise on any given Summer day (which is June-August period in this case)


Data C/O Met Eireann


You can see from this plot that very warm or even hot days (22° + ) are more the exception than the rule, as are cool/cold days (maxima below 15°) Whereas the daily mean max of between 16 - 19°c is more the norm.

Just for the record, the Summer max average for this small period is 18.1° ; the median 17.9° and the mode also at 17.9°.


*Note:
IMT in this case is based on the means of 9 synoptic stations, and not the usual 5 used in MT's competition. As well as the 5 inland station used in the traditional IMT indice, it also include 4 coastal stations so as to better infer a more rounded and representative 'national' average.

Birdnuts

Jpmarn wrote: »

Just commenting what M.T. Cranium is saying about this summer. It would be like 2011 with the jet stream mostly south of us for most of the season. .

God I hope not - was a wretched effort. I can see the similarities though as that year had a summer like April too.

s.m

Gonzo wrote: »

usually a warm, sunny April results in a crap summer and so far May is definitely delivering on the washout! Hopefully this year will be different with a decent June-September.

Not really april last year was warm and pleasant and we got a decent summer

twinkletoes

Hi Everyone..any long range forecast in sight yet? Not so good for beginning of June it would seem by todays's forecast from MT??.. but living in hope for rest of summer!!??

JM Skipton

Karsini wrote: »

I'm no expert, but if previous (recent) years are anything to go by, I'm fearing a washout this year. Mainly due to the dry, warm April we just had.

Stats don't back up this statement, Casement for example had a wetter and colder April than average. There was a lot of variation in rainfall around the country during April. However I think something like 17 of the 25 stations recorded below average temps.

pauldry

June will be a lot warmer than May has been with tempuratures of 20c a lot of days. Early June will be brutal but there will be a warm spell then with temperatures above normal.

This is still far away so I wouldnt say heatwave yet but by all accounts a vast improvement on May likely with warm sunshine especially for the South and East.
Some cloud and fog for North and West at times

It could be 18 to 22c

As for Bank Holiday weekend it could be the wettest one of 2015.

Cosmo Kramer

Has something significant changed on the models in the last 24 hours? I'm seeing a few forecasts (including MT's this morning) hinting at some decent weather in early June once we get over this coming weekend.

Rikand

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Has something significant changed on the models in the last 24 hours? I'm seeing a few forecasts (including MT's this morning) hinting at some decent weather in early June once we get over this coming weekend.

http://m.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/Athlone/long.html

Yr.no has rain most of the weekend. Getting lashed out on Monday. And it's normally fairly reliable

Slattsy

Folks, I'm getting married on the 13th June in Sligo.

From what I have read, following a lot of long range forecasts and posters here lately, the models are showing a wet start to June commencing from a horrible bank holiday weekend.
However how is the following weekends looking??
Any improvements or still too early.

Any thoughts appreciated :-)

twinkletoes

pauldry wrote: »

June will be a lot warmer than May has been with tempuratures of 20c a lot of days. Early June will be brutal but there will be a warm spell then with temperatures above normal.

This is still far away so I wouldnt say heatwave yet but by all accounts a vast improvement on May likely with warm sunshine especially for the South and East.
Some cloud and fog for North and West at times

It could be 18 to 22c

As for Bank Holiday weekend it could be the wettest one of 2015.

Thanks Pauldry...Pity about the forecast for bank holiday that seems eminent, but at least there is hope now after that for a bit of heat in June, anything would be better than the chill of this May.

Storm 10

ME today are saying that it will get a bit warmer next week but will stay unsettled..

delahuntv

These "long range" arguments comes up every year.

IMO people with knowledge can forecast a trend in the weather due to jetstream, el nino or whatever and a trend can give a guideline to general expectations. MT seems to be forecasting a mixed trend for the summer - basically a "typical" Irish summer or good days, bad days, average days. Trtying to find out when the "good days" will appear is the difficult job!

Then you get the other types who want to grab newspaper headlines because they make money out of fools easily parted from their money and who give "accurate" forecasts that in 70% of cases are totally and utterly wrong, but in the periods they get it right, they shout from the rooftops and again the tabloid media lap it up. (if I flip a coin 100 times, I'll get a better result rate - so they are REALLY bad)

We won't mention anyone on particular, though i wonder how the weather is in New Zealand!

Storm 10

Never heard of this guy before


https://www.facebook.com/windywilson.weather.roads

delahuntv

Storm 10 wrote: »

Never heard of this guy before


https://www.facebook.com/windywilson.weather.roads

Love it - but google translate doen;t reach to Scottish dialect for some of his posts.

Looks like a wild scottish version of MT

twinkletoes

" MT seems to be forecasting a mixed trend for the summer - basically a "typical" Irish summer or good days, bad days, average days."

Did MT make his summer long range forecast yet???! I didnt think it was up yet?

jArgHA

twinkletoes wrote: »

Did MT make his summer long range forecast yet???! I didnt think it was up yet?

See: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95338450&postcount=26