Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

grass growth has really taken off here with all the rain over the past few days. I normally cut the grass once per week at this time of the year but since last week's cold spell the grass growth slowed alot, but it got going again over last weekend and now really needs a cut as it hasn't been cut in 10 days. Garden is now soaking wet so no chance of getting the lawn cut and tomorrow looks like alot of rain too. More rain at the weekend so all of a sudden trying to find a dry period to cut the grass is becoming a challenge. If the lawn doesn't get cut over the next few day the lawnmower will be challenged, so really hoping for a few hours where the grass dries out.

greenfield21 wrote: »

I like the last part...Next week though it seems that high pressure will give a largely dry, sunny and warm week in general.

Is there agreement from the models on this?

I wouldn't be totally confident of dry and settled conditions resuming next week, that low pressure looks very close to Ireland for several days after Saturday's rain, blustery showers on Sunday with possibly another pulse of rain on Monday.

Eastern areas certainly stand a chance of going a bit dryer but with the winds in from the west there is the likelihood of rain or showers at times, particularly across western and north-western areas.

There is alot of talk on UK based websites about very warm weather and possibly a heatwave next week, it is unlikely this will affect Ireland, this would mainly be for eastern Wales, central and southern England.

The GFS is keeping Ireland on the cooler and more mixed side up to FI. There is a chance we may get the odd warm and settled day, eastern and southern areas most likely to get a slight influence of warmth at times.

The ECM generally keeps us cool over the next week with a slight warming towards the end of next week. This will update later so hopefully we will see more signs of settled conditions later next week.

GEM keeps Ireland cool and unsettled over the next week with bands of rain on Saturday, Monday, possibly Tuesday and again on Thursday into Friday.

This change back to an Atlantic pattern for Ireland from Saturday is dependent on Saturday's low making full progress through the country and then on into Scotland. This will cause the Azores high to stay south of Ireland and then nose northwards over England from the Bay of Biscay and France. This would not be a full break through of the Atlantic, but it would be enough to keep Ireland occupied with attacks from the Atlantic every few days untill the Azores can nudge a bit more towards or into Ireland.

This change is still 2 days away and a slight alteration in the tracking of this low could have a big impact on our weather outlook. If the low zips a bit more north than it's current projected track over Ireland, then we may see less of an influence from this low including its duration. If this was to happen Ireland would stand a better chance of getting into that ridge from the Azores if the low give's us a near miss. IF the low misses us altogether and gets shifted further to our north-west it is possible Ireland would then join the UK with a warm and possibly settled week next week. I don't think this will happen but it is something I would love to see developing in the models by tonight and into tomorrow!

latest ECM still keeps the rain on Saturday and possibly Monday. From Tuesday it moves that azores influence a little bit closer to us but we're on the very edge. Perhaps parts of east and south-east Leinster might tap into some warmth (high teens/low 20's) for a day or two if we can get some dryer and more sunny conditions.



We finish very close to getting the ridge into the country, we just have to hope the lows in the Atlantic start making more of a northerly track towards Iceland, rather than diving south to brush up against Ireland as they pass.



It wouldn't take much adjustment to suddenly go from a fairly unsettled outlook to something much dryer and warmer. There is still hope yet.