COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

stephenjmcd · 09-06-2020 9:45pm

Hmmzis wrote: »

Since there was no link provided, did a goodle-round. It's ChAdOx, the Oxford vaccine candidate. Had no idea they are going the inhaler route. That should hopefully help with the mucosal antibody response (IgA).

Yeah its the Oxford vaccine alright but never knew they were looking at inhaler, thought it was an injection

hmmm · 09-06-2020 9:57pm

Can these inhalers be re-used? I know there is concern in the US about a lack of syringes.

Gael23 · 09-06-2020 11:10pm

Some researchers are saying that infection rates are now so low there may not be enough infected people to run clinical trials.

hmmm · 10-06-2020 9:14am

Gael23 wrote: »

Some researchers are saying that infection rates are now so low there may not be enough infected people to run clinical trials.

Unfortunately/fortunately there's still lots of infection in South America and the US isn't so great either.

Particularly for medical staff in South America, I imagine many would be quite happy to take part in a phase 3 trial. It was the strategy used to suppress Ebola in West Africa and protect first-responders.

hmmm · 11-06-2020 2:27pm

Moderna phase 3 to start in the US in July. 30,000 participants. 500 million doses, perhaps 1 billion in 2021 if successful.

hmmm · 11-06-2020 2:30pm

Johnson & Johnson accelerated the start of their human trials, starting in July. Selected final candidate vaccine. Phase 3 mid-September, with at least 30,000 people and possibly a lot more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dY1XMcPG9QA

hmmm · 11-06-2020 2:34pm

Regeneron entering human trials with their antibody drug. They have already treated their first patient. Is not happy with Eli Lilly's approach of a single antibody rather than a cocktail.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3asj-WgcqY

ShineOn7 · 11-06-2020 3:02pm

Realistically, when do you think we will have a vaccine?

Maybe Q4 of this year for the vulnerable and healthcare workers

And Q1/Q2 of next year for everyone else?

Hmmzis · 11-06-2020 3:29pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Realistically, when do you think we will have a vaccine?

Maybe Q4 of this year for the vulnerable and healthcare workers

And Q1/Q2 of next year for everyone else?

HC workers and outbreak zones should have them starting September if all goes to plan. Once that's in place, the rest of us can actually wait a while. Of course, the sooner we get something safe and effective the better.

In my thinking it's really necessary to protect the healthcare workers and other frontline staff. Then it's basically down to 'ring-fencing' outbreak zones, treat the infected ones and vaccinate everyone in the general area.

After that it's basically down to travel options. If you're going to a place with active infections or going through a big transport hub, get the jab.

sunbabe08 · 11-06-2020 3:34pm

Would that include the likes of folks who are diabetic and that have cancer

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! · 12-06-2020 12:35pm

In my opinion, if (or hopefully, when) a vaccine comes out, it should be compulsory. Vaccines only work through herd immunity so everyone should have it unless you have a medical exemption.

Certain countries like Finland restrict the issuance of passports or driving licences unless you play ball and do your national service. No reason why we can't implement similar here.

It might cost a lot to implement and administer, but it'll pay for itself in the long run.

In my opinion, anyone who refuses a vaccination for either themselves or their child (without a medical exemption) should not be allowed to receive lone parent's allowance, job seekers benefit, pension tax relief, fuel allowance or any state benefits, PAYE rate will increase to 99% for them and they will be barred from holding a driving licence or applying for a passport.

Finland and Cyprus prohibit issuing of documents for national service evaders so it's not a fascist concept before anyone says.

antix80 · 12-06-2020 12:38pm

Also, smokers should not receive benefits or healthcare.

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! · 12-06-2020 12:45pm

antix80 wrote: »

Also, smokers should not receive benefits or healthcare.

It's hard to prove whether someone is a social or current or former smoker.

Whereas a person will be registered by a healthcare professional as having received the vaccine.

Atlantic Dawn · 12-06-2020 12:47pm

I will wait 5 years after any vaccine is approved before pumping it in to my body.

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! · 12-06-2020 1:07pm

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I will wait 5 years after any vaccine is approved before pumping it in to my body.

Do you know the amount of work and trials that go into vaccines and other drug products before approval?

Idiotic comment.

c.p.w.g.w · 12-06-2020 1:08pm

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! wrote: »

Do you know the amount of work and trials that go into vaccines and other drug products before approval?

Idiotic comment.

If the vaccine is rushed I would have concerns...there was talks of certain stages being rushed.

P.S not an anti Vax...fully up to date and have got the flu jab the last 2 years

Atlantic Dawn · 12-06-2020 1:18pm

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! wrote: »

Do you know the amount of work and trials that go into vaccines and other drug products before approval?

Idiotic comment.

Tell that to the people who took the Pandemrix vaccine in this country and got narcolepsy, their lives are destroyed.

brick tamland · 12-06-2020 1:26pm

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! wrote: »

In my opinion, if (or hopefully, when) a vaccine comes out, it should be compulsory. Vaccines only work through herd immunity so everyone should have it unless you have a medical exemption.

Certain countries like Finland restrict the issuance of passports or driving licences unless you play ball and do your national service. No reason why we can't implement similar here.

It might cost a lot to implement and administer, but it'll pay for itself in the long run.

In my opinion, anyone who refuses a vaccination for either themselves or their child (without a medical exemption) should not be allowed to receive lone parent's allowance, job seekers benefit, pension tax relief, fuel allowance or any state benefits, PAYE rate will increase to 99% for them and they will be barred from holding a driving licence or applying for a passport.

Finland and Cyprus prohibit issuing of documents for national service evaders so it's not a fascist concept before anyone says.

You do know that If/When a vaccine becomes available, only circa 60% (possibly a good bit less) will need to be vaccinated for this to go away. It wont need 100% of people to get vaccinated.

Supercell · 12-06-2020 1:30pm

As an asthma sufferer I'll be first in line for the vaccine.
I do appreciate that there is some risk - there is risk with everything. I got Pandremix with no ill effects, when looking at the actual risk there it was 1:55,000, honestly, even if that was known in advance I would have taken those odds.
The effects of COVID are totally devastating to many many people, the world and society needs to go on, everyone should get the vaccine or if they wish not to be a part of society then they can opt of welfare payments too and do their own thing if they feel so strongly about it.

UI_Paddy · 12-06-2020 1:55pm

Absolutely not. Taking the vaccine, when we have one, should be highly, highly recommended, particularly for the most vulnerable asthmatics and elderly people. That said, social welfare is a necessity for citizens of this state because no one is guaranteed a job for life, and depriving them of at the very least a way to make ends meet will only put us in an even deeper housing crisis.

Beasty · 12-06-2020 2:57pm

Threads merged

hmmm · 12-06-2020 3:45pm

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

If the vaccine is rushed I would have concerns...there was talks of certain stages being rushed.

"Rushed" is the wrong way to describe it, they are running certain things in parallel.

Usually a vaccine goes through three phases of trials, then there are deals struck to manufacture it, then it is manufactured, then distribution is worked out. This can take years of red tape.

With Covid, these vaccines are being manufactured "at risk" (unfortunate phrase). Essentially they are being manufactured even while the trials are underway - if the trials fail, the vaccine will be useless and a large amount of money wasted. If the trials are successful, the vaccine is immediately ready to be deployed which will save months, years even.

Similarly other things like distribution, syringe production etc. is happening now.

The US has chosen five vaccine candidates to manufacture "at risk". Similarly the Gates foundation are putting billions into manufacturing other candidates now.

never_mind · 12-06-2020 4:13pm

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! wrote: »

In my opinion, if (or hopefully, when) a vaccine comes out, it should be compulsory. Vaccines only work through herd immunity so everyone should have it unless you have a medical exemption.

Certain countries like Finland restrict the issuance of passports or driving licences unless you play ball and do your national service. No reason why we can't implement similar here.

It might cost a lot to implement and administer, but it'll pay for itself in the long run.

In my opinion, anyone who refuses a vaccination for either themselves or their child (without a medical exemption) should not be allowed to receive lone parent's allowance, job seekers benefit, pension tax relief, fuel allowance or any state benefits, PAYE rate will increase to 99% for them and they will be barred from holding a driving licence or applying for a passport.

Finland and Cyprus prohibit issuing of documents for national service evaders so it's not a fascist concept before anyone says.

I disagree with this. Vaccines should be sold to the public as a necessary form of protection against the virus but forcing people is just not the way to do it. The vast majority of Irish people are compliant with vaccines anyway so this herd immunity you are talking about would still hold even if a stupid minority decide not to take it.

I will take it if it is safe and has been proven to work.

Hmmzis · 13-06-2020 2:11pm

Very small n, but the other values are looking rather ok. Especialy the 5 days to discharge for the severity of the cases.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20125369v1

It's a mAB against specific parts of the immune system, so data on secondary infections is needed, apart from a larger trial and the general issues around mAB prouction and administration.

On the other hand, Tocilizumab looked nowhere near this well in the preliminary tests and even that was found to be usefull in certain cases.

Slowly but surely we'll get there.

Hmmzis · 13-06-2020 8:25pm

In vitro results are similar enough to Remdesivir. Trouble is, it's a drug for felines. Would need safety trials in humans.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.07.138677v1.full.pdf+html

Edit: from a quick google search it looks to be a fair bit cheaper than Remdesivir, but still quite pricey.

hmmm · 13-06-2020 10:38pm

Fabulous news, fingers crossed it is successful in trials now

https://twitter.com/jensspahn/status/1271852899010842634

hmmm · 16-06-2020 12:55pm

hmmm · 16-06-2020 1:07pm

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-oxford-university-vaccine-to-provide-protection-for-about-a-year-says-drugmaker-12007789

"Commenting on the likely protection the Oxford vaccine will provide, Mr Soriot told broadcaster Bel RTL: "We think that it will protect for about a year.""

DevilsHaircut · 16-06-2020 1:22pm

'UK experts say the low-dose steroid treatment [dexamethasone] a major breakthrough in the fight against the deadly virus.

It cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators. For those on oxygen, it cut deaths by a fifth.'

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281

ShineOn7 · 16-06-2020 2:02pm

hmmm wrote: »

Context?

Hmmzis · 16-06-2020 2:09pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Context?

I think it's from here:
http://www.sinovac.com/?optionid=754&auto_id=904

plodder · 16-06-2020 2:13pm

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

'UK experts say the low-dose steroid treatment [dexamethasone] a major breakthrough in the fight against the deadly virus.

It cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators. For those on oxygen, it cut deaths by a fifth.'

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281

That does look promising.

LiquidZeb · 16-06-2020 2:34pm

hmmm wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-oxford-university-vaccine-to-provide-protection-for-about-a-year-says-drugmaker-12007789

"Commenting on the likely protection the Oxford vaccine will provide, Mr Soriot told broadcaster Bel RTL: "We think that it will protect for about a year.""

Would the years immunity be enough to purge it from circulation? If the minimum of 60% of the population were vaccinated?

Hmmzis · 16-06-2020 3:36pm

Will add this one here as well, as it's a starting point to end this plague of sarbecoviruses:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/15/science.abc7424/tab-pdf

And, as a side note, the SARS survivor still had those memory B cells in his blood after 17 years. There is hope still.

Hmmzis · 17-06-2020 4:53pm

This is an important finding if it gets verified in peer review:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.15.20131607v1

It has implications for convalescent plasma theraphy. Basically, the plasma can't be coming from severe patients as it runs the risk of making things even worse for the recipient. Explicit testing for those antibodies would be needed to exclude those donors.

hmmm · 17-06-2020 11:05pm

Curevac (a German company) to begin human trials. You might remember the orange idiot in the White House tried to buy them a few months ago, and I believe they also have received a hefty investment from the German government recently.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/curevac-gets-ok-to-start-testing-mrna-covid-19-vaccine-humans

hmmm · 18-06-2020 11:54am

EU in advanced talks with J&J to pre-purchase vaccines. I heard someone recently being interviewed (can't remember who but very credible) who said that the J&J vaccine was the one they considered the most promising in terms of long-term protection potential.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-vaccine/exclusive-eu-in-advanced-talks-with-johnson-johnson-on-covid-19-vaccine-deal-sources-idUSKBN23P1PU

LiquidZeb · 18-06-2020 12:03pm

hmmm wrote: »

EU in advanced talks with J&J to pre-purchase vaccines. I heard someone recently being interviewed (can't remember who but very credible) who said that the J&J vaccine was the one they considered the most promising in terms of long-term protection potential.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-vaccine/exclusive-eu-in-advanced-talks-with-johnson-johnson-on-covid-19-vaccine-deal-sources-idUSKBN23P1PU

Yeah what I can see happening is if the Oxford vaccine works in preventing pneumonia it'll be deployed to get things back to normal as much as possible. Then at a later date, a new follow up vaccine will be developed to stop it spreading and wipe the ****ing virus off the face of the Earth.

Hmmzis · 18-06-2020 12:47pm

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Yeah what I can see happening is if the Oxford vaccine works in preventing pneumonia it'll be deployed to get things back to normal as much as possible. Then at a later date, a new follow up vaccine will be developed to stop it spreading and wipe the ****ing virus off the face of the Earth.

Then hopefully with some further effort and $$$ a more universal vaccine can be developed that can target both SARSes, MERS and the potentially emerging ones in one go. There at least two published papers that explore the potential ways of how to achieve that. Some other HCoVs then might become collateral damage as well.

Also, the lovely people of Chine could just maybe stop eating bats, pangolins, palm civets and other critters known to carry potentially dangerous pandemic pathogens.

stephenjmcd · 18-06-2020 12:49pm

So could be looking at if the Oxford vaccine mitigates against the serious affects of covid being given it, say it lasts for 1-2 years, getting everything back to mostly normal and then down the road being given the J&J vaccine as your booster per say

hmmm · 18-06-2020 1:00pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

So could be looking at if the Oxford vaccine mitigates against the serious affects of covid being given it, say it lasts for 1-2 years, getting everything back to mostly normal and then down the road being given the J&J vaccine as your booster per say

I don't think it's ideal, but the impression I get is that something like this is a likely scenario. A vaccination that buys us time, and either a booster a year or two later for extended protection or another vaccination entirely from someone like J&J or Merck.

There's also the possibility that some of the front-leading vaccine candidates don't do well in trials. J&J are now moving pretty aggressively, and have spent a lot of time on the research phase getting the target right.

stephenjmcd · 18-06-2020 1:02pm

hmmm wrote: »

I don't think it's ideal, but the impression I get is that something like this is a likely scenario. A vaccination that buys us time, and either a booster a year or two later for extended protection or another vaccination entirely from someone like J&J or Merck.

There's also the possibility that some of the front-leading vaccine candidates don't do well in trials. J&J are now moving pretty aggressively, and have spent a lot of time on the research phase.

Yeah not ideal but it would be an acceptable stop gap I feel. Gives more time to R&D also.

Noticed that with J&J while others were looking to power through the phases they've got much slower with the research.

is_that_so · 18-06-2020 1:09pm

This link summarises the status of a few of the other potential candidates including the ones mentioned in the last few pages.

https://indianexpress.com/article/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-oxford-moderna-imperial-college-curevac-status-check-6461648/

Hmmzis · 18-06-2020 1:37pm

The whole inactivated versions, like Sinovac, could also provide better and longer protection than ChAdOx, as those simply provide more targets for the immune system to use.

When it comes to boosting an existing vaccine, then anything goes really, mRNA, DNA, whole inactivated, VLP, etc. As long as it forces the immune system to respond at all. The only problematic ones could be the viral vectors as the immune system will develop antibodies against it as well, greatly reducing the response to the intended S proteins.

hmmm · 18-06-2020 5:24pm

"Over-50s are to be given priority for a coronavirus vaccine when it becomes available, along with key workers in the health and social care sectors and those with heart and kidney disease, health secretary Matt Hancock has said."

Hmmzis · 18-06-2020 9:34pm

Amazing work by the scientists here:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.17.157982v1.full.pdf+html

They developed a model to produce all possible RBD mutations at the amino acid level and then tested affinity and expression on all of them against ACE2.

That then gave them a map of all the parts in the RBD that can change without affecting its function and more importantly all the parts that it can't change without losing affinity or expression, or both.

Good news is that most of those restricted mutation sites are already targeted by antibodies human immune systems make.
Also good news is that it already has almost as high affnity as it can practically get. The vast majority of mutations available are deleterious for it.
Bad news is that we have one nasty infectious f*&#%r to deal with right now.

The really exciting find, in my laymans opinion, is the site indicated as not able to mutate, but no known antibody is targeting it (Figure 7C). The questions from this are:

1. Why is the immune system not targetting it?
2. Can we create a mAB that targets it and test it out in a lab?
3. If effective, can we design a vaccine in a way that the immune system does produce an antibody type for that area as well?

sunbabe08 · 18-06-2020 10:20pm

Wondering when this vaccine does come in any one know if diabetics abd cancer patients will be first in line along with health care workers??

FutureTeashock · 18-06-2020 10:38pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

Wondering when this vaccine does come in any one know if diabetics abd cancer patients will be first in line along with health care workers??

I selected "no" but didn't notice the "I won't be taking any Covid vaccine ever" option, can one of the mods please correct the statistics. Thanks.

18-06-2020 11:21pm

The Irish government bought a swine flu vaccine that was not licensed for use in the USA. And as a result the same drug destroyed peoples lives in Ireland.

I'm just delighted your taste buds are bursting for a jab of this rushed drug de jour! only about 40% of the applauded front line workers get the seasonal flu Jab despite the campaigns of the HSE, why is that???? what do they know that you and I dont. All this talk of HOPE and B cels and T cell uptake is laughable to be honest, don't ask me , read it for yourself.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/revealed-children-got-double-dose-of-narcolepsy-jab-37191291.html

https://www.bmj.com/content/362/bmj.k3948

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hse-misled-public-on-swine-flu-vaccine-claims-teen-with-narcolepsy-xtbblvmdb

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/history/narcolepsy-flu.html

LiquidZeb · 19-06-2020 12:02am

rusty cole wrote: »

The Irish government bought a swine flu vaccine that was not licensed for use in the USA. And as a result the same drug destroyed peoples lives in Ireland.

I'm just delighted your taste buds are bursting for a jab of this rushed drug de jour! only about 40% of the applauded front line workers get the seasonal flu Jab despite the campaigns of the HSE, why is that???? what do they know that you and I dont. All this talk of HOPE and B cels and T cell uptake is laughable to be honest, don't ask me , read it for yourself.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/revealed-children-got-double-dose-of-narcolepsy-jab-37191291.html

https://www.bmj.com/content/362/bmj.k3948

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hse-misled-public-on-swine-flu-vaccine-claims-teen-with-narcolepsy-xtbblvmdb

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/history/narcolepsy-flu.html

Right so then take your chances with covid. I can assure you your odds of suffering ill effects from the vaccine are much lower than your chance of dying of covid. I'd assume the low uptake of seasonal flu vaccines by hse staff is more down to them not feeling it's necessary rather than some grand conspiracy. Please reconsider for your own wellbeing.

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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