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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020
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Meteorite58 wrote: »On meteologix, press the balloon icon , see below . They are available up to about +70 hrs.
I'll trade you
where do you get the Sigmet charts , available to public?
https://meteologix.com/ie/model-charts/euro/ireland/significant-weather.html
Thanks I never spotted that.
The SIGMET charts are from https://skyvector.com
. You can add layers up in the top right.0 -
Looks like still on track for some scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. The Northern half of the country will feature most tomorrow I think and especially North midlands and Northern counties. SW Winds will be brisk moving heavy convective showers quickly along . ECM showing some high CAPE readings, SKEW T is for near Drumshambo Co Leitrim , might get a concentration of sferics showing up more towards the NE tomorrow afternoon and N Leinster perhaps. Some big heavy showers in the Northern half of the country and a few could pop up in the Southern half earlier but look like clearing away in the early afternoon here and late afternoon / early evening from the NE.
Im tinking that lightning could occur in the area highlighted in green but more so as you head North and perhaps the biggest concentration in the area highlighted in orange. Just my opinion of course!
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jimmynokia wrote: »Some hope for sparks this week apparently.
Thursday evening / night into Fri looks interesting. High temps and Dew point overnight and a high theta E reading as an area of LP stretches from around Ireland all the way down to N Spain bringing a warm humid plume of air in from the continent. Complex set up but could be a lively one if it comes together. Interesting.
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The definition of a Spanish Plume event is an 850-hPa Theta-W value of +20 °C, which does come close on Friday but not quite close enough. Still, a lot of low-level moisture in a +18 °C warm sector so the following cold front could be interesting.
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Thursday is looking very interesting indeed but before we get too excited, we need to get that warm air in place first. We do have some warm uppers building from today and we need to keep it in place.
GFS going for temperatures up to 23C in Leinster on Thursday, GFS usually undercooks temperatures by several degrees in the summer so it's possible temperatures of 25 or maybe even 26C are achievable on Thursday by the time showers start to get going. Uppers of around +12C may get into the eastern half of the country with +10C uppers through the west, so these look good for instability.
Hopefully this cape chart gets upgraded for Ireland closer to the time and not downgraded. These cape values look more impressive than the ones we had last week, so there is definitely potential here for some proper storms.0 -
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PukkaStukka wrote: »Same craic as last week in that
there's nothing significant indicated for Dublin or the coast
The GFS not being a high Res model means it's pretty crude in terms of representing areas of instability, never really shows surface based convective activity near the coast, whereas the reality can be different. Also, potentially more conducive to night time imports from Wales onto the E coast.0 -
thunderstorm potential now looking very real in the latest GFS just rolling out:
Temperatures look spot on for some instability
The above rain chart shows a large area of showers move up from the bay of Biscay which pushes across SW England, Wales and then into Leinster during Thursday night/Friday morning.
Still some warmth left in the east on Friday with cooler Atlantic air taking over, a few storms could still be possible early on Friday.
Uppers look very decent on Thursday and Friday for some instability.
If all this verifies and with a bit of luck on our side, we could possibly be in for a very eventful Thursday with hopefully some mushroom action getting going.0 -
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The GFS is out on its own regarding CAPE values Thursday afternoon. It's showing MLCAPE (Mixed layer) around 1300 J/kg, which is highly unlikely in Ireland. The ICON is a more reasonable picture and the ECM's MUCAPE (Most Unstable, showing the absolute maximum CAPE possible from any level) really shows very little.
The reason for the high GFS value is that it has surface dewpoints 4-5 degrees higher than the others (>20 °C).
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
The Icon and ECM charts look much more typical of a breakdown in Ireland, chance of a thunder shower and then all hell breaks lose when these showers cross into the UK.
The GFS looks very promising but if it's not well supported then something much more conservative will probably happen as it usually does. Still a bit of time for the Icon and ECM to hopefully upgrade somewhat, but if we even get to half the intensity of what the GFS is currently showing then we may see some decent sparks on Thursday.0 -
Those GFS dewpoints do look a bit excessive!
dewpoints on other models still relative high but not as high as that GFS.
WRF model now giving a reasonable thunderstorm risk for Thursday as well with high dewpoints and warm temperatures.
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T'wouldn't take much for this to slip a bit further west closer the time:
If I remember correctly, wasn't there a similar sort of set up around this time last year as well that brought some storms to the east? Seems almost like what Lamb would have called a 'singularity'.New Moon
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T'wouldn't take much for this to slip a bit further west closer the time:
If I remember correctly, wasn't there a similar sort of set up around this time last year as well that brought some storms to the east? Seems almost like what Lamb would have called a 'singularity'.
I don’t remember any storms in the east last year. Maybe lightning in the distance over the Irish Sea but nothing of significance unfortunately.0 -
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