Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ThePanjandrum · 22-07-2019 12:37am

McGiver wrote: »

Why? Because for all Ireland economy to function frictionlessly and no physical border to exist, EU membership is required for both NI and RoI, or more specifically both NI and RoI to be in a regulatory alignment and both in the SM as well as the CU. This was all assumed to continue when the GFA was signed. The GFA is predicated on EU membership of both jurisdictions. Brexit completely disrupts the predicament and is almost impossible to achieve without breaking the GFA.

Basically, the only feasible Brexit option is a Norway style Brexit with CU alignment for NI. Or NI only backstop. There's no other solution possible.

Your reasoning fails you here. Neither Northern Ireland nor the Republic being in the EU would also satisfy the border problem. You seem to have forgotten this.

Stop moaning ffs · 22-07-2019 12:38am

jm08 wrote: »

They say nothing happens in the US without the say-so of the three 'I's. Irish, Italian and Israelis/jews.

A good example as to the kind of support that the Irish-American caucus can drump up is on the recent vote in both congress and the senate where only one person voted against giving the excess Australian visas to Ireland. Paul Ryan (Rep). who was leader of the senate sponsored that Bill.

Richard Neal, Chairman of the Ways & Means Committee (which scrutinise all trade agreements) was brought up by his grandmother and aunt who are from Northern Ireland. He was involved in the Peace Process and was here recently with Nancy Pelosi. Next to the Israelis, Ireland is the most powerful group in the US and it can deliver a huge vote. Thats how Clinton got involved with the Peace Process - he was after the Irish-American vote.

Ryan voted against that?

Hope we all remember that next time he’s banging on about his Irish heritage.
Loathsome individual anyway.

Charles Babbage · 22-07-2019 12:39am

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Therefore, as a border between Northern Ireland and either of the other two parties would breach the Agreement, the solution is to have a border between Ireland and the EU.

The solution is for Britain to respect the GFA and stay in the Single Market so no border is needed.

marno21 · 22-07-2019 12:44am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ryan voted against that?

Hope we all remember that next time he’s banging on about his Irish heritage.
Loathsome individual anyway.

Paul Ryan was the one doing the most pushing behind the bill. He was highly supportive of it.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) was the one who blocked it.

jm08 · 22-07-2019 12:56am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ryan voted against that?

Hope we all remember that next time he’s banging on about his Irish heritage.
Loathsome individual anyway.

Ryan is decent enough (for a Republican!). I don't think he liked the Trump kind of politics and probably why he got out. Wouldn't be surprised if he is a future Presidential candidate.

jm08 · 22-07-2019 1:10am

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Your reasoning fails you here. Neither Northern Ireland nor the Republic being in the EU would also satisfy the border problem. You seem to have forgotten this.

What the backstop does is facilitate the operation of an All-Ireland economy and the 140+ areas of co-operation. The border down the Irish Sea is only for animal health and food checks which is happening now with the full approval of the late Rev. Ian Paisley.

Last weeks, food stuffs contaminated with African Swine Fever were detected in Northern Ireland which would have probably come through GB and were not detected there.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/african-swine-fever-traces-found-in-meat-seized-entering-northern-ireland-38304726.html

Peregrinus · 22-07-2019 2:13am

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not? The Belfast Agreement is about Northrrn Ireland and its relationship with Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom which are the only other parties to the agreement.

If a hard border with Ireland would breach the Agreement then so would a hard border with mainland Britain and a sea border would come within this definition.

The EU excluding Ireland is not a party to the Agreement so that a hard border between any of the parties and the EU does not breach the Agreement. Hence, a hard border between the United Kingdom and France does nor Breach the Agreement.

Therefore, as a border between Northern Ireland and either of the other two parties would breach the Agreement, the solution is to have a border between Ireland and the EU.

No, no, no. The solution is to conduct Brexit in a way that does not require a border either between NI and GB or between NI and RoI. Which is very much in line with what people were told they would get by the Leave campaigns; a Brexit which did not hamper the UK's ability to trade internationally. And which is perfectly feasible and attainable, and entirely consistent with the referendum result. And which would attain the UK's stated objective of "no hard border", and allow it to honour its guarantees. Everyone's a winner!

The problem here is the (post-referendum) decision to go for a hard Brexit. A hard Brexit is impossible without either undermining the GFA, or violating irish sovereignty by demanding changes to Ireland's relationship with the EU (which, to be fair, HMG has never been so stupid as to suggest).

Once hard brexiters have decided that that the GFA must be undermined, the least worst option is to choose the course which does less harm to the GFA, which is increased controls on the GB/NI border, which is in fact the preferred option in NI, and of course in RoI. Hard brexiters who resist this are presumably motivated by the desire to undermine the GFA to the greatest extent possible.

Calina · 22-07-2019 6:12am

Ireland had no say in the Brexit so a Brexit which compels Ireland to change its trading arrangements with the EU is out of the question.

The UK bought Brexit. The UK pays. This means they do not get to say Ireland segregates from the single market to facilitate their needs. It means the UK stays in the SM and CU and VAT system so that the UK complies with its obligations.

Nody · 22-07-2019 7:10am

Well back in the global world UK is getting a reality check by Canada as they refuse to roll over the CETA agreement due to Boris promise of zero tariffs in case of crash out; who'd have thought other countries don't want to sign an equal reduction in tariffs deal if you promise zero tariffs to everyone?

One of Liam Fox’s trade envoys has quit in protest that the government’s no-deal Brexit policy threatens the demise of an existing trade deal with Canada worth £800m.

Andrew Percy attacked the “cack-handed” move to scrap or slash tariffs on almost all imports if the UK crashes out of the EU – blaming it for Ottawa’s refusal to “roll over” its existing deal with the EU.

The Conservative MP felt “patronised” by the international trade secretary when he warned him the announcement would backfire, The Independent understands, walking away after almost two years in the Canada role.

Canada made clear its resistance to a rollover after the UK announced, in March, that tariffs would be axed “temporarily” on 87 per cent of imports, after a no-deal Brexit.

The move was designed to stop shoppers being hit by soaraway prices, but the threat to UK jobs from undercutting was branded “a sledgehammer for our economy” by the CBI.

Canada’s government noted the proposal would “provide all WTO [World Trade Organisation] partners, including Canada, with duty-free access for 95 per cent of tariff lines”.

And a spokesperson warned: “Post-Brexit, any future trade arrangement between Canada and the UK would be influenced by the terms of the withdrawal agreed between the UK and the EU, as well as any unilateral UK approaches.”

Sounds like; oh I don't know the countries lining up to bend UK over and take what it wants exactly as warned but that could not be the case since we've been told everyone needs UK after all...

VinLieger · 22-07-2019 7:14am

Nody wrote: »

Well back in the global world UK is getting a reality check by Canada as they refuse to roll over the CETA agreement due to Boris promise of zero tariffs in case of crash out; who'd have thought other countries don't want to sign an equal reduction in tariffs deal if you promise zero tariffs to everyone?
Sounds like; oh I don't know the countries lining up to bend UK over and take what it wants exactly as warned but that could not be the case since we've been told everyone needs UK after all...

Once again their public pandering to the brexit base kicks them in the teeth. Its like they still dont realise the EU and the rest of the world can also read twitter or the mail/express etc

murphaph · 22-07-2019 8:18am

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not? The Belfast Agreement is about Northrrn Ireland and its relationship with Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom which are the only other parties to the agreement.

If a hard border with Ireland would breach the Agreement then so would a hard border with mainland Britain and a sea border would come within this definition.

The EU excluding Ireland is not a party to the Agreement so that a hard border between any of the parties and the EU does not breach the Agreement. Hence, a hard border between the United Kingdom and France does nor Breach the Agreement.

Therefore, as a border between Northern Ireland and either of the other two parties would breach the Agreement, the solution is to have a border between Ireland and the EU.

So the border is Ireland's problem, not the UK's.

...or Brexit is fundamentally incompatible with the GFA because the only way to implement it without damaging the GFA is to compel another sovereign state to leave the EU against its expressed wishes.

You guys did not think this through enough before the referendum. That is the UK's problem.

IAmTheReign · 22-07-2019 9:23am

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I wouldn't want to put my faith in the Democrats - despite German and Irish being the largest and second-largest self-reported ancestry groups in the United States. Think African Americans are third.

We have very little clout in Washington unfortunately. We have a St. Patrick's Day date and that's it.

You see Irish names pop up all the time. Generals, politicians, governors ect. ect. But they have no sincere connection with Ireland. Maybe 100 years ago it'd be different.

In fairness the St. Patricks Day thing is huge. What other country of only 4 million people gets a guaranteed invitation to the White House to meet with the president every single year?

US politicians may not have a sincere connection to Ireland but that's not really whats important. Their voters do, and politicians want to keep their voters happy. Being tough with Britain and supporting Ireland wins them easy votes.

Enzokk · 22-07-2019 10:04am

Yesterday we were going to have the EU change the backstop and give in to the UK by way of compromise, today the EU is preparing a package to help offset the damage that no-deal Brexit will do to Ireland.

EU prepares huge aid package for Ireland

The European Commission is drawing up a multibillion-pound aid package for Ireland to offset the economic damage of a no-deal Brexit, The Times understands.

The bloc would “spend whatever was necessary” to support the Irish government through any disruption of trade, a senior EU diplomat said.

European leaders have privately told Boris Johnson that he risks scuppering any prospect of averting a no-deal Brexit by making “totally unrealistic” demands over the Irish backstop.

EU diplomats are understood to have made contact with senior figures close to Mr Johnson early in the campaign and urged him to show “restraint” in setting out his Brexit strategy before entering Downing Street.

As for the EU backing down, well this is not going to happen according to the article.

However, they expressed deep concern that he has hardened his rhetoric in recent days and last week explicitly ruled out any deal that included any form of the present backstop. One said that “dark clouds” had descended after Mr Johnson made his comments during the final debate of the campaign. “This is not simply a business deal that can be unpicked because a new chief executive comes in,” the diplomat said.

“If Europe is seen to give in on this then what message does it send to Trump on trade? What message does it send to Putin on security? For the EU’s own preservation, no deal is preferable than being seen to back down.”

So we have the EU preparing to help us offset some of the damage no-deal will cause and not backing down against the stance of Johnson. Johnson has boxed himself into a corner here, as Tony Blair seems to see as well,

Writing in The Times today Tony Blair says that Mr Johnson appears to have “boxed himself into a no-deal Brexit”. The former Labour leader adds: “The most astonishing thing about Johnson’s position on Brexit is his apparent failure to understand why Theresa May failed . . . The Johnson position is now that Europe should remove the backstop — ‘delete it’ as he says — and have all the border issues dealt with in the future negotiation.

“For Europe to agree to this, it would have to renege on its commitment to Ireland, reopen the guarantee accepted by the UK government that the Irish border would be open for people and goods without friction, and give to Johnson what Europe conspicuously refused to give to May. I see no prospect whatsoever of that happening. None.”

So troubled waters ahead for Johnson from Tuesday. Either he takes the country down the road to no-deal and blows up parliament in his quest to do it, or he backs down and is taken down by the Brexit wing of his party and the Brexit Party at the next General Election. This sideshow to Brexit is some entertainment, just too bad we are being held hostage to it.

*Article is behind paywall, but you can register for free and I was able to read the whole article. It allows you a few articles per month on the Times website.

trellheim · 22-07-2019 10:43am

Does anyone have examples of the EU backing down ? Norway ? Switzerland ? anybody ?

Presumably the UK know this.

Therefore I expect huge pressure almost immediately on Leo to cave on something, anything to have something they can trumpet.

Since David Davis has almost publicly said that the negotiating gloves are going to come off - not sure what that means but judge for yourself

lawred2 · 22-07-2019 10:45am

trellheim wrote: »

Does anyone have examples of the EU backing down ? Norway ? Switzerland ? anybody ?

Presumably the UK know this.

Therefore I expect huge pressure almost immediately on Leo to cave on something, anything to have something they can trumpet.

Since David Davis has almost publicly said that the negotiating gloves are going to come off - not sure what that means but judge for yourself

Almost every utterance from these uber Tories is in macho big man big talk terms... everything is seen as a school yard fight...

These people need to seriously grow up.

And so do all those listening to such puerile crap.

Tell me how · 22-07-2019 10:53am

trellheim wrote: »

Does anyone have examples of the EU backing down ? Norway ? Switzerland ? anybody ?

Presumably the UK know this.

Therefore I expect huge pressure almost immediately on Leo to cave on something, anything to have something they can trumpet.

Since David Davis has almost publicly said that the negotiating gloves are going to come off - not sure what that means but judge for yourself

That's why Coveney did so well yesterday. He was very clear and adamant that the WAvis agreed and closed. He said directly that just because Britain says it must be renegotiated is not the case.

The audacity of Davis to spout nonsense like this after he was the UK negotiator is like something David Brent would say.

Stop moaning ffs · 22-07-2019 11:00am

Ian Duncan Smith yesterday saying ‘the EU is a master at hard nose negotiations’.
James O Brien made the point that’s a damn good reason not to leave. Never mind have to negotiate against them.

20silkcut · 22-07-2019 11:05am

trellheim wrote: »

Does anyone have examples of the EU backing down ? Norway ? Switzerland ? anybody ?

Presumably the UK know this.

Therefore I expect huge pressure almost immediately on Leo to cave on something, anything to have something they can trumpet.

Since David Davis has almost publicly said that the negotiating gloves are going to come off - not sure what that means but judge for yourself

What will they do to pressure Varadkar??

As Leo says himself he is the EU.
The EU is him.

VinLieger · 22-07-2019 11:23am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ian Duncan Smith yesterday saying ‘the EU is a master at hard nose negotiations’.
James O Brien made the point that’s a damn good reason not to leave. Never mind have to negotiate against them.

Iain Duncan Smith is a joke, he still wont admit any jobs have been lost due to Brexit

Leroy42 · 22-07-2019 11:27am

Was listening to Stephen Nolan on BBC5L last night, around 11.30, and he had Chris Mason on along with a supporter of Hunt and Jonhson (MP's).

The Johnson guy kept going on saying that UK and Ireland should simply have bi-lateral talks to deal with the NI border issue and that the EU should stay out of it. Claimed that as a sovereign nation Ireland should not be allowing the EU to take control.

I won't go through the whole thing, he also stated that alternative technology wasn't available right now, but it showed, yet again, that the UK totally fail to understand what it is they are dealing with. They simply cannot understand the reason for the EU, why the EU simply won't give them a trade deal.

If that is the mindset that it is not surprising that they see No Deal a a credible threat as they really do see that each country within the 27 will break off to look after their own interests.

BonnieSituation · 22-07-2019 11:29am

trellheim wrote: »

Does anyone have examples of the EU backing down ? Norway ? Switzerland ? anybody ?

Presumably the UK know this.

Therefore I expect huge pressure almost immediately on Leo to cave on something, anything to have something they can trumpet.

Since David Davis has almost publicly said that the negotiating gloves are going to come off - not sure what that means but judge for yourself

Katya Adler would probably have evidence of the EU blinking at the last minute. She'd hardly just make it up.

Leroy42 · 22-07-2019 11:30am

VinLieger wrote: »

Iain Duncan Smith is a joke, he still wont admit any jobs have been lost due to Brexit

I keep saying this, but it staggers me the amount of air time he is given. He is a failed party leader, a failed minister and nothing he has said has come to pass in regards to Brexit.

When he claims the EU will budge, why don't they ask him why they didn't budge in March, or April and why they have changed nothing at all since last November.

trellheim · 22-07-2019 11:50am

What will they do to pressure Varadkar??

As Leo says himself he is the EU.
The EU is him.

UK knows(believes/act of faith) that if Leo gives in then a deal will be done. ( this would cause an almost immediate GE here I'd say)

Stop moaning ffs · 22-07-2019 12:08pm

trellheim wrote: »

UK knows(believes/act of faith) that if Leo gives in then a deal will be done. ( this would cause an almost immediate GE here I'd say)

Think it’s been explained to you before that negotiations are closed. Leo can’t ‘give in’ on anything. Legally or functionally. It’s the EU with Ireland as part of it that Britain is dealing with.
He can’t go rogue off reservation and give the UK anything. It’s not within his gift.

And why would he?
Cos some clueless politicians in Britain keep squaking in their news papers?

Please

Lackadaisical · 22-07-2019 12:35pm

IAmTheReign wrote: »

In fairness the St. Patricks Day thing is huge. What other country of only 4 million people gets a guaranteed invitation to the White House to meet with the president every single year?

US politicians may not have a sincere connection to Ireland but that's not really whats important. Their voters do, and politicians want to keep their voters happy. Being tough with Britain and supporting Ireland wins them easy votes.

Speaking as someone who's fairly familiar with Irish-America and Irish American politicians, the other thing to remember is that unlike those of us on Emerald Isle itself, a lot of Irish Americans have a very mythological view of Ireland and a caricature of England (Britain) that is something along the lines of how you might see C. Montgomery Burns (Mr Burns of the Simpsons), with a touch of Cromwell and a mishmash of stories about how badly their ancestors were treated.

The British also tend to forget that the Americans did actually fight a revolution against them and I have found on a few occasions in meetings where some English person has made a stupid comment like referring to the US as "The colonies" or suggesting that they should hand themselves back to HRH and apologise tends to be met with about as much humor as saying the same thing in Dublin might.

The likes of Rees-Mogg, Johnson and quite a few others tend to confirm that stereotype and it will really not play out very well with Irish America and even non-Irish America.

The other side of it is that the US is split down the middle and for every Trump supporter, you've a people who cannot stand this kind of politics and would lump Brexit straight into the same category and right now, it's those people who control the house and have huge media influence.

Add to that that many Democrats (and even some Republicans) would tend to see the GFA as somewhat of a massive success of American foreign policy. The Clintons in particular would have personal involvement in it and there's a huge cohort of very establishment Irish American and allied politicians who would see it similarly.

A lot of the US establishment would also have seen the EU as having been a positive result of US foreign policy in Europe after WWII. It effectively is a product of the Marshall Plan and was built to some degree in the image of a European version of a United States. So, the UK attempting to take a sledge hammer to the EU will go down extremely badly with a lot of the US establishment, regardless of Trump thinks of it, the EU is very much part of the stable "Western" world order and espouses many of the same values and ideals as the US, albeit in a less interventionist and more peacefully idealistic kind of way. It's the US' biggest trade partner and that relationship has been enormously important to both sides of the Atlantic.

Trump's era in office will come to an end, and the UK will be left dealing with centrist American politics again and it isn't necessarily going to respond as enthusiastically as they think.

Even Trump is surrounded by right wing Irish Americans and I would suspect that if push came to shove on a topic that was putting Ireland at risk, many of those would probably fall into an "America First" but pro-Irish position a long time before they would support the Tories.

I just think the Tories could massively overplay their hand with the US on this. There are some parallels between Brexit and US populism, but there are some fairly stark differences too.

I'd also add that Trump smells weakness and will use it as a negotiating position in any trade deal / hotel deal .. (same thing to him.) He's not your friend. He's a salesman and it will very much be America (or Trump) First.

Harry Palmr · 22-07-2019 12:43pm

Alan Duncan resigns from government. So that's three assuming Gauke and Phil Hammond have followed through.

Also and I'm not sure if or how this might effect things but a Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has been charged with a crime - serious one at that.

trellheim · 22-07-2019 1:02pm

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Think it’s been explained to you before that negotiations are closed. Leo can’t ‘give in’ on anything. Legally or functionally. It’s the EU with Ireland as part of it that Britain is dealing with.
He can’t go rogue off reservation and give the UK anything. It’s not within his gift.

And why would he?
Cos some clueless politicians in Britain keep squaking in their news papers?

Please

I know exactly where the negotiations are.

If you think negotiations are closed you are on a different planet. People saying things doesnt make it true. Diplomacy carries on.

Some facesaver will be attempted ( or, indeed, not found).

Leo does not lead the EU side of the negotiating team, thats Barnier's job, true enough , but misses the point . If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

Now I agree this is unlikely BUT massive pressure is about to be applied. I would say Foreign Affairs and the Government have a playbook for this whole scenario.

Saying things are closed leaves you open to endplays , all scenarios need consideration.

reslfj · 22-07-2019 1:03pm

20silkcut wrote: »

What will they do to pressure Varadkar??

As Leo says himself he is the EU.
The EU is him.

"The EU is him."

No way.

The EU27 is all 27 countries and they decided and continue to decide what is the mandate for Michel Barnier the EU negotiator.

As long as Ireland acts with prudence - as its politicians has masterly done up to now - and position itself in front of the other 26 EU members it can have a great say.

But make no mistake. Ireland is not the EU27. In EU outer border and trade questions - it's the EU and the EU alone that calls the shots.

Lars

Stop moaning ffs · 22-07-2019 1:15pm

trellheim wrote: »

I know exactly where the negotiations are.

If you think negotiations are closed you are on a different planet. People saying things doesnt make it true. Diplomacy carries on.

Some facesaver will be attempted ( or, indeed, not found).

Leo does not lead the EU side of the negotiating team, thats Barnier's job, true enough , but misses the point . If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

Now I agree this is unlikely BUT massive pressure is about to be applied. I would say Foreign Affairs and the Government have a playbook for this whole scenario.

Saying things are closed leaves you open to endplays , all scenarios need consideration.

Are we consuming different media perhaps?
Everything I’ve read both on here and in papers has the Eu and us saying the WA is closed. The backstop is going nowhere. There will be no opening it and no renegotiations.

The only person I’m seeing saying there’ll be a new deal is Johnson.
Who thinks he can do three years of work in three months?

I know who I believe and it’s isn’t Johnson.

Where are you reading there’ll be further negotiations? And where is it said Leo will be forced to change position?

Lackadaisical · 22-07-2019 1:17pm

UK commentators only see this from a UK perspective, but if you think of it from the EU's point of view, the way the UK is behaving is almost like as if say Russia were to start demanding that the EU throw Finland or Estonia under a bus to ensure free flow of trade between it and the EU.

I find the UK seems to want to be treated as if it were an important on-going member, while throwing all sorts of aggressive shapes at the EU and using rhetoric that is extremely threatening to the EU itself and to one of the founder members of the Eurozone.

If the EU were to throw Ireland under a bus, it would immediately raise huge questions about its willingness to stand behind other smaller and vulnerable members with big neighbours. I mean why would the Nordic countries even bother to be members, if they were all subject to being cast aside should there be a trade deal with Russia?

Why would Greece or Cyprus remain members? Would the EU place Turkey ahead of them because it has 90m+ people?

It would leave the Balkan members nervous about how the EU might deal with both Serbia and Turkey, would it abandon them?

Likewise, all of the eastern countries that were formally under Soviet influence would be left scratching their heads.

Effectively by throwing Ireland under a bus, the EU could be writing its own epitaph and I think it is acutely aware of that, so I don't see it happening.

What I see happening in the next few months is the UK facing a very hard negotiation where the EU will simply not blink and will let the UK bang its head off the wall until it eventually comes around to a compromise.
As it stands, the EU doesn't really have to do anything at all other than sit there and let the UK rant and rave like a toddler throwing a tantrum. Eventually, it will calm down and pragmatism will be restored.

reslfj · 22-07-2019 1:17pm

trellheim wrote: »

... If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

You are way out.

The EU27 has larger problems with the NI-RoI border, than just the GFA. The protection of the Internal Market/the SM is at the core of the EU27's position - with or without Leo.

The EU27 will not let the backstop vanish just because Leo Varadkar changes his and his governments position (which I don't see happening).

The UK has agreed to the WA. Except for an A50 revoke the WA text will be ratified by the UK as such a ratification is the one and only way to get any deal - trade or non trade - with the EU.

The UK will after a 'No Deal' Brexit be a fairly small and rule taking nation. It better understand and accept this fact as soon as possible.

Lars

trellheim · 22-07-2019 1:28pm

The EU27 will not let the backstop vanish just because Leo Varadkar changes his and his governments position (which I don't see happening).

I am putting up predictions for what will I believe happen, i.e. massive pressure being applied to Irish Government to find a facesaver.

Neither you nor I know whats going to be put on offer, but we would be stupid not to consider all options.

The UK has shown it wants to do unilateral (e.g going to see Merkel, Macron directly)

Some immediate carrot will be shown by the UK almost immediately and then the pressure will come on e.g ( not ECJ but something like agreeing to pay the bill)

By the way I have never once said we will or should buckle under to such pressure.

If you dont think this will happen do you think they will sit there wibbling in the corner till Oct 31 ? We need to have an answer to every single play they will try.

KildareP · 22-07-2019 1:28pm

trellheim wrote: »

I know exactly where the negotiations are.

If you think negotiations are closed you are on a different planet. People saying things doesnt make it true. Diplomacy carries on.

Some facesaver will be attempted ( or, indeed, not found).

Leo does not lead the EU side of the negotiating team, thats Barnier's job, true enough , but misses the point . If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

Now I agree this is unlikely BUT massive pressure is about to be applied. I would say Foreign Affairs and the Government have a playbook for this whole scenario.

Saying things are closed leaves you open to endplays , all scenarios need consideration.

The negotiations are closed whilst the UK red lines remain in place as they are.

The EU have always indicated that if the UK were to alter or change it's current red lines then it would be open to reconsider the exit process.

The Irish cannot back down on the backstop - it will cause massive diplomacy issues from both the UK and EU sides and all of the issues it was designed to protect will not suddenly be resolved.

So where is the pressure coming to come from?
The UK?
They've already enough on their plate as it is, and it's growing by the day. The EU market is immediately off limits and the USA and Canada are sending messages that aren't exactly in the UK's favour. Hopes of opening markets further afield are suddenly looking very uncertain with what's going on in Iran.
The EU?
What are they going to pressure Ireland about? To give in to the UK demands on the backstop and risk letting the UK think they can then apply individual pressure on all of the other areas they're unhappy about because eventually they'll get their way and break each and every one with enough pressure?

The only pressure I can see growing against anyone is the UK and it won't be just the EU causing it.
No FTA with EU27 for forseeable under current sets of circumstances.
Canada now refusing to roll-over CETA if UK are just going to throw open their market tariff free.
USA will make a deal entirely on their terms, not the UK's, and many of those terms hinted at are highly unpalatable.

So now having ruled those three big markets out, your nearest market is at least a quarter-way around the globe. That makes it:
- impossible to transit goods that have a very short shelf-life without considerable expense (and very little readily available capacity exists today)
- the huge increases in shipping and airborne freight miles necessary will send the likes of Extinction Rebellion into overdrive
- the pound shows every sign of tanking every time the prospect of No Deal is looking to be a foregone conclusion so the added expense is now a double whammy.

Whereas the EU negotiation team have shown themselves to be a group who are prepared to take the slowly-slowly approach and wait things out - one thing the UK will not have in a No-Deal scenario is time and things will get very tough, very quickly. It's not a game of chicken I'd like to play from the UK side.

trellheim · 22-07-2019 1:35pm

KildareP wrote: »

The negotiations are closed whilst the UK red lines remain in place as they are.

The EU have always indicated that if the UK were to alter or change it's current red lines then it would be open to reconsider the exit process.

The Irish cannot back down on the backstop - it will cause massive diplomacy issues from both the UK and EU sides and all of the issues it was designed to protect will not suddenly be resolved.

So where is the pressure coming to come from?
The UK?
They've already enough on their plate as it is, and it's growing by the day. The EU market is immediately off limits and the USA and Canada are sending messages that aren't exactly in the UK's favour. Hopes of opening markets further afield are suddenly looking very uncertain with what's going on in Iran.
The EU?
What are they going to pressure Ireland about? To give in to the UK demands on the backstop and risk letting the UK think they can then apply individual pressure on all of the other areas they're unhappy about because eventually they'll get their way and break each and every one with enough pressure?

The only pressure I can see growing against anyone is the UK and it won't be just the EU causing it.
No FTA with EU27 for forseeable under current sets of circumstances.
Canada now refusing to roll-over CETA if UK are just going to throw open their market tariff free.
USA will make a deal entirely on their terms, not the UK's, and many of those terms hinted at are highly unpalatable.

So now having ruled those three big markets out, your nearest market is at least a quarter-way around the globe. That makes it:
- impossible to transit goods that have a very short shelf-life without considerable expense (and very little readily available capacity exists today)
- the huge increases in shipping and airborne freight miles necessary will send the likes of Extinction Rebellion into overdrive
- the pound shows every sign of tanking every time the prospect of No Deal is looking to be a foregone conclusion so the added expense is now a double whammy.

Whereas the EU negotiation team have shown themselves to be a group who are prepared to take the slowly-slowly approach and wait things out - one thing the UK will not have in a No-Deal scenario is time and things will get very tough, very quickly. It's not a game of chicken I'd like to play from the UK side.

All fair points, and said better than I could, but a clown (or several clowns) are about to be sent into the ring by the UK to do just that who was elected, to do just that.

better to serve as PM of the dumpster fire rather than doing a deal ? What'll stop him ? Even if Parliament stayed in session till Oct 31, all that needs to happen is nothing. And they have ruled out taking no-deal off the table.

Strazdas · 22-07-2019 1:49pm

trellheim wrote: »

I know exactly where the negotiations are.

If you think negotiations are closed you are on a different planet. People saying things doesnt make it true. Diplomacy carries on.

Some facesaver will be attempted ( or, indeed, not found).

Leo does not lead the EU side of the negotiating team, thats Barnier's job, true enough , but misses the point . If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

Now I agree this is unlikely BUT massive pressure is about to be applied. I would say Foreign Affairs and the Government have a playbook for this whole scenario.

Saying things are closed leaves you open to endplays , all scenarios need consideration.

Even if the negotiations could be reopened, a massive obstacle is that the Brexiteers are deeply divided. There is no unified position on their side and they want different versions of Brexit (ie. many of them want No Deal and nothing else).

There would be a major risk that even if the EU ditched the backstop and signed a new WA. hard Brexiteers would start kicking off within days and maybe refuse to ratify it in the Commons

Stop moaning ffs · 22-07-2019 1:50pm

trellheim wrote: »

All fair points, and said better than I could, but a clown (or several clowns) are about to be sent into the ring by the UK to do just that who was elected, to do just that.

better to serve as PM of the dumpster fire rather than doing a deal ? What'll stop him ? Even if Parliament stayed in session till Oct 31, all that needs to happen is nothing. And they have ruled out taking no-deal off the table.

Don’t know if you saw Coveney on Marr yesterday but worth a watch. It is not the sound of a man or position that’s under any pressure from any faction or going to cave to the imaginary pressure.
He does sound bored of having to repeat himself on the same points such as those you’ve brought up.
Well worth a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rKoJfVEZNQ

BonnieSituation · 22-07-2019 2:18pm

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Don’t know if you saw Coveney on Marr yesterday but worth a watch. It is not the sound of a man or position that’s under any pressure from any faction or going to cave to the imaginary pressure.
He does sound bored of having to repeat himself on the same points such as those you’ve brought up.
Well worth a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rKoJfVEZNQ

He really is nailing his brief.

The frustration was kept in check by pure force of will.

The comparison of him and say his equivalent Jeremy Hunt on detail is night and day.

trellheim · 22-07-2019 2:21pm

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

Water John · 22-07-2019 2:21pm

One in four UK farmers support a Hard Brexit, the mind boggles. As this guy says, they'll be decimated,
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/a-tsunami-about-to-hit-uk-farmers-mr-brexit/

Well Tories + DUP have a majority of 3. They will lose the August byelection, that means one person to defect to the Lib Dems makes it a minority Govrn't.
With the line up willing to stop Johnson on the No Deal road, he had better try another tack. but doubt he has the brains or skills.

fly_agaric · 22-07-2019 2:22pm

trellheim wrote: »

I am putting up predictions for what will I believe happen, i.e. massive pressure being applied to Irish Government to find a facesaver.

I think only change EU and Irish government would accept is the "NI only" version of backstop from end 2017 that the DUP shot down.
That is reopening the agreement, but only to replace parts of it with other things the EU (Ireland) were happy to agree to 2 years ago. Only the smaller NI economy in a sort of a twilight zone between the EU and the rest of the post-Brexit UK is (I think?) actually preferable for the EU.

In terms of pressure, it is true that the EU is generally a broken reed and hopelessly divided when it comes to common policy for many external/foreign policy issues beyond trade. So there may be scope there for a much more adversarial/antagonistic UK government to sow discord. Theresa May was fairly restrained and always maintained she wanted the UK to have a good future relationship with the EU and the member states whatever happened in negotiations and would act in good faith within the EU until the UK exited. With Boris Johnson...not so sure that will remain the case.
Whether playing a card like that as they try to exit the EU will somehow benefit the UK in the long run or change the outcome...

Its just likely to make everything much worse [edit IMO of course].

trellheim · 22-07-2019 2:25pm

Water John wrote: »

One in four UK farmers support a Hard Brexit, the mind boggles. As this guy says, they'll be decimated,
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/a-tsunami-about-to-hit-uk-farmers-mr-brexit/

Well Tories + DUP have a majority of 3. They will lose the August byelection, that means one person to defect to the Lib Dems makes it a minority Govrn't.
With the line up willing to stop Johnson on the No Deal road, he had better try another tack. but doubt he has the brains or skills.

You need something to vote for to avoid a No deal and it has to make it onto the order paper. The House is refusing to do just that, at the moment.

Stop moaning ffs · 22-07-2019 2:25pm

trellheim wrote: »

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

The UK can’t simply throw out the WA and replace it tomorrow or Wednesday or any day. It’s called an agreement. With the EU27.
They can choose to not sign up to it on October 31st. But unless Johnson drops red lines the WA is going nowhere.

What red lines do you think he’s about to drop?

Sam Russell · 22-07-2019 2:28pm

trellheim wrote: »

All fair points, and said better than I could, but a clown (or several clowns) are about to be sent into the ring by the UK to do just that who was elected, to do just that.

better to serve as PM of the dumpster fire rather than doing a deal ? What'll stop him ? Even if Parliament stayed in session till Oct 31, all that needs to happen is nothing. And they have ruled out taking no-deal off the table.

Well, not quite.

TM has to recommend a person to become PM who can control a majority in the HoC. Could she, in all conscience, say Johnson would command a majority with ministers resigning ahead of her own resignation?

Even if she does name Johnson as her successor, how long before further resignations or events reduce his current majority of 3/5ths of 5/8ths of FA to no majority at all? Then there will be a vote of No Confidence as night follows day.

Her alternative, which I am sure she will not follow, will be to call on someone like Dominic Grieve to try to form a Government of National Unity, with Tory, Labour, SNP, and Lib Dems plus any others to take the UK out of its current trajectory to crash out, followed by economic doom.

Johnson will get the gig, lie, lie, and tell a few untruths, and fail horribly.

Forecast: GE in in October, extension granted by the EU. New Gov revokes Art 50 and vows to never speak about Brexit again, but draws up plans to strengthen the UK position within the EU by joining the Euro, and strengthen the EU military capabilities by providing two aircraft carriers that the UK has no planes that can land on them.

We will see.

VinLieger · 22-07-2019 2:28pm

trellheim wrote: »

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

That means absolutely nothing as international agreements don;t suddenly end with the forming of a new government, its a key feature of them.

Brexiteers can believe everything they want, in fact many of them do but it doesn't change the fact that negotiations are closed until the red lines are removed.

Water John · 22-07-2019 2:30pm

If there is one defection between Tues and Wed, she cannot recommend Johnson to the Queen to be PM.

trellheim · 22-07-2019 2:32pm

But unless Johnson drops red lines the WA is going nowhere.

What red lines do you think he’s about to drop?

they are not his red lines and it will be a new government that will look very different ( resist, if you will, the description of clown cars )

new PM could have a thatcher/falklands moment on Iran but thats a hefty step up in international relations.

international agreements don;t suddenly end with the forming of a new government, its a key feature of them.

true - if they are ratified - which the WA very specifically is not, its what all the kerfuffle is about.

KildareP · 22-07-2019 2:35pm

trellheim wrote: »

they are not his red lines and it will be a new government that will look very different ( resist, if you will, the description of clown cars )

new PM could have a thatcher/falklands moment on Iran but thats a hefty step up in international relations.

true - if they are ratified - which the WA very specifically is not, its what all the kerfuffle is about.

Not his red lines but the UK's.

Johnson or Hunt taking up residence in #10 does absolutely nothing to change the current state of play, no more than changing solicitor by itself will change the outcome of divorce proceedings.

Strazdas · 22-07-2019 2:36pm

trellheim wrote: »

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

An international agreement or treaty does not become defunct with a change of government, that's not the way it works. The government of the day negotiates on behalf of 'the state' and it's essentially 'the state' that signs the agreement. A new government can't come in and say 'that agreement no longer applies now that we are in power'.

trellheim · 22-07-2019 2:43pm

ok a few people picking me up here -> the WA isnt in force because they havent/wont ratify it.... International agreements need ratification, in this case the WA needs to be voted through by Parliament before it has any obligation under the WA.

Strazdas · 22-07-2019 2:49pm

trellheim wrote: »

ok a few people picking me up here -> the WA isnt in force because they havent/wont ratify it.... International agreements need ratification, in this case the WA needs to be voted through by Parliament before it has any obligation under the WA.

That is indeed correct, the WA is not law because the UK Parliament have not ratified it. But that does not mean it can be replaced. It took two and a half years to negotiate and was signed by the UK government and the 27 states. The UK parliament refusing to ratify it and saying it wants a different agreement is purely an internal British matter (as Coveney pointed out yesterday).

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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