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25-09-2020, 13:29   #31
nacho libre
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Yes, it certainly has a whiff of last October and winter about it. I suppose some people will be grateful for the lower energy bills if we do get a repeat of winter 2019/2020
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25-09-2020, 16:02   #32
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Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
In Sligo weathers been great this year bar first 2 weeks of July which were dark and cold.

October looks like it will be our worst weather since start of March. A cold and wet one.
However it could always get mild or warm mid month which sometimes happens

Rainfall has generally been normal or below here since Mid March.
October is going to have to be fairly brutal to beat this July I reckon. Low teens for first half of July and a washout from beginning to end. Cool temperatures and rainfall is a lot more acceptable in October than it is in July!
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25-09-2020, 20:16   #33
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Autumn has arrived over the past 2 days with a very sudden drop in temperature, the temperatures over the past 2 days would give many of the warm winter of 2019/2020 daytime temperatures a run for their money in terms of cold and we're still only in September.

It will get slightly milder over the next week but more cold plunges appear to be on the way with a northerly influence.

ECM looks chilly and unsettled next weekend with cool north-westerlies driving in bands of cold rain. If this was December/January it could well be a fairly wintry mix. Northern blocking is trying to get going as well with the lows diving from Greenland to Ireland.



GFS and GEM is similar with a cool/cold northwest to southeast flow dragging cool air down over Ireland.



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25-09-2020, 20:33   #34
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Yeah looks like LP over or close to us for a number of days from +120hrs.

Unsettled.

Breezy and at times blustery, cool and wet at times.





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27-09-2020, 12:19   #35
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LP's continue to dominate. On the cooler side. Not too much rainfall until later in the week and then set to become very wet at times .









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27-09-2020, 20:33   #36
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No great changes in the ECM 12Z, the main arc of the Jet below Ireland sending in the Lp's at a lower latitude than normal, on these runs France would be getting a lot of the strongest winds with extremely heavy rains. Early days yet but the models are fairly consistent that deep LP over the weekend will produce strong winds and heavy rain, will just have to keep an eye on the models and see where it tracks.





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28-09-2020, 11:18   #37
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More good news for model watchers.

https://twitter.com/parlimag/status/...518477312?s=21
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28-09-2020, 17:31   #38
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after a relatively dry September, October is shaping up to being possibly a very wet month and the deluges are back on.

Latest ensembles are very wet looking indeed with daily deluges starting from Wednesday. The new GFS ensembles have an extra 10 members to deal with so perhaps they are looking more over the top wet with 30 members worth of rainfall traced in these projections.



This is possibly one of the wettest ensembles I've seen, certainly up there with the deluges from last October and November.

Wednesday begins this period of very wet weather.



Plenty of rain, showers and cool conditions on Thursday 1st of October





More bouts of rain over the weekend and chilly north-westerly winds pushing bands of driving rain south-eastwards across the country.



Not much change to the end of FI at +384 hours with low pressure after low pressure, some of them possibly dartboard lows diving from the north-west across Ireland one after another and fairly windy most of the time.

ECM broadly similar with no escape from the rain or the cool north-westerlies.



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28-09-2020, 23:37   #39
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Met Eireann: 'Next Weekend: Current indications are that it will remain cool and unsettled for the weekend with showers or longer spells of rain, turning heavy at times. There is also the potential for strong winds on Sunday, particularly in the west and northwest'.

The supporting charts.

GFS not showing it as deep and further to the E. Potentially very wet on Sunday I would think.















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29-09-2020, 15:09   #40
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Plenty of rain over the next 10 days. Latest GFS predictions shows heaviest of the rainfall across the east with 100mm possible in many areas. These precipitation projections could increase further over the next couple of runs.



Could be fairly windy at times as well.


Temperatures below average over the next 2 weeks, especially over the next week.



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01-10-2020, 21:52   #41
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unusual to see ECM coming up with a cross-polar flow at this time of year, it's no good for us this time of year but at least it des transpire it will be cool and dry
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02-10-2020, 00:09   #42
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If we had this setup in the middle of January we'd certainly see a fair deal of snow, no doubt after this cold October is over and done with i'm expecting the mild south-westerlies to come back during November and December as per usual. It's been 10 years since we've had a cold December and even longer than that for a cold January.
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02-10-2020, 00:51   #43
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If we had this setup in the middle of January we'd certainly see a fair deal of snow, no doubt after this cold October is over and done with i'm expecting the mild south-westerlies to come back during November and December as per usual. It's been 10 years since we've had a cold December and even longer than that for a cold January.
Yeah - the form seems to be cool summers into early autumn and then ridiculously mild winters into early spring.
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02-10-2020, 01:03   #44
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Might be a bit different this year. We actually had our first good August in Sligo in 17 years. Well it wasnt superb but 11 or 12 days over 20c is acceptable.

I think this Winter will see a lot of jets diving to the South and cold but then it still won't snow. It will probably be 3 or 4c and we will be asking why isnt it snowing?

As for plus 120 weather it looks like a brutal first week of October but it may get milder mid month.
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02-10-2020, 11:49   #45
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The ECM long range projections are showing a gradual return to average temperatures by the end of October and then milder than normal for first half of November indicating possibly a mild south-west flow over western Europe with cold air digging in to eastern and south-eastern parts of Europe. Sure this is a long way out and far from reliable, but hopefully it is not indicating the form over winter as it's a trend we see in reality far too often!

Anything more than a week out is almost completely unreliable but at the same time I don't like to see this milder projections as we edge closer to the start of winter.
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