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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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More humid air mass on the way over the coming days, more cloud than of late, improving during Thursday but overcast on Fri again from approaching fronts with outbreaks of rain across the country, timing a bit unsure but looks like the afternoon, some heavy bursts in places, maybe some thundery in the W, heaviest rainfall totals along Atlantic coasts . Looks showery over the weekend with sunny spells possibly becoming a bit fresher again later Sunday.
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Another rainfall warning for Kerry, looks like mostly for the South of the county again and anywhere in the county that might be effected by Mountain runoff.
Cooler air mass in behind the Cold Front
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A fairly big change is on the way over the next few days, particularly for southern and eastern areas as well as parts of the midlands to a dryer and warmer scene. Temperatures lifting up slightly to high teens and low twenties over the next few days with rainfall mostly confined to western and north-western areas.
Tomorrow looks pleasantly mild away from the north-west with temperatures reaching 21 or 22C in many areas.
Wednesday will be similar, fairly mild at times with temperatures close to 20C in many areas, maybe 21C across the south.
Thursday will be warmer with temperatures widely reaching 20 to 23 or possibly 24c in some areas.
Friday will be another warm day across the eastern half of the country as a front with cooler air pushes into the west.
Saturday may be more unsettled but still mild and after that high pressure looks to strengthen again with temperatures high teens to low twenties in many areas. Considering how poor our summer has been this spell could well be the warmest and dryest run of weather we've had all summer. It doesn't look like we'll pull in any real heat with this, that looks more confined to the UK but temperatures here should be good enough to satisfy most people.
Rainfall will be much reduced compared to recently especially in eastern and southern areas with less than 10mm of rain predicted over the next 5 or 6 days. The north-west and parts of the west will see more average rainfall but even there it will most likely be a bit dryer than the past 5 to 6 weeks.
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Kerry might need to be added to the rainfall warning Tues into Weds and looks like W Cork with high accumulations also, might also see some more counties in the NW and N Ireland get warnings.
ICON just rolling out, looks like an upgrade on the previous run
EDIT: Savage rain from ICON up to 22.00 tomorrow night in the W and NW, N . Looks like the timing of the warnings are out as well, might have to being them forward.
Could get Orange warning levels yet for Donegal.
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I wasn't aware of all the rain and wind forecast for tomorrow in the north, it does look like quite a divide tomorrow between the south-east and the north-west of the country. Perhaps the models are overcooking tomorrow's temperatures in the east and south if there is going to be a lot of cloud around with heavy rain and strong winds in the NW.
Hirlam going for 23C tomorrow in parts of Leinster and Munster.
Rain looks mostly confined to the northwest and Northern Ireland.
Alot of cloud around tomorrow but by the evening there could be decent spells of warm sunshine across the east and south. I'm not so sure about this, I think it will be mostly cloudy everywhere tomorrow.
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ECM and HARMONIE slso getting up to 23C wouldent be surprised to see higher.
Big plume of warm moisture laden air, warm if not even hot feeling wind !
Hmidex giving up to a 25 or 26C feel inland in quite a large area. Dp's of 16C widespread.
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How's this Friday looking now?
tomorrow looks fairly mild to warm with temperatures ranging 16 to 25C
Perhaps these temperatures are overcooked slightly but we shall see.
Tomorrow won't be completely dry, could be showery rain at times across the north-west and then some beefy and possibly thundery showers breaking out across the midlands, east and south during the afternoon. Thunderstorm risk is very low at this stage. If showers and cloud become widespread tomorrow I'd imagine temperatures no better than 19 or 20C in many places, but temperatures will lift up above 20C across the east and south if we get lucky with sunny breaks.
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ECM has been upgrading the wind speeds and rainfall totals associated with the LP system from Weds to Fri . Big complex weather mix which will only fine tune daily. Looks like one of the wettest and windiest spells in months or perhaps this year. Rainfall totals look particularly high and especially after all the rain the last couple of days, luckily it looks like a break from heavy rain tomorrow until the first front crosses the country on Weds. Quite an unstable airmass with possible thunderstorms embedded in the fronts perhaps later Weds / Thurs.
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igCorcaigh wrote: »OK that looks very windy for us Corkonians, Meteorite, have you much confidence?
Well this latest run from ARPEGE certainly ups the ante, what about that eh...
Still early days mind you but for the UKMO and ARPEGE to be so close at this stage is a sit up and take close attention for sure .
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Shades of the famous august "Fastnet" storm in 1979 on that chart above!!
I remember it well, I was in Dunmore East that night, remember all the yachts being towed into the harbour the next day, A weather Bomb. Bombogenesis .
Have to stress this could change but need to keep an eye on it. Below can see it still deepening rapidly on its southern approach.
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generally the trend is more of the same plenty of rain or showers on a daily basis in most parts. The jetstream is slowly inching it's way southwards into the continent and our temperatures will continue to lower day by day over the coming week. The Azores high and it's ridges is completely off the table now for us and even the UK with much of north-western and northern Europe under a cool autumnal flow by this time next week. Temperatures are currently averaging mid to high teens but in a weeks time it will be more like low to mid teens. Next Tuesday could be another day to watch with potentially another very deep area of low pressure over us driving strong gusts and bouts of heavy rain with temperatures struggling under the rainfall.
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The LP Monday night into Tuesday looks like producing a lot of rainfall, still a good bit off and dependent on track but preliminary models showing spot flooding possible ( noticing water standing in fields today in Kerry and land saturated with standing water beside a few rivers) . Winds currently look moderate at the moment, in general some yellow level warnings are possible perhaps but accompanied by very heavy rain.
ECM showing the LP deepening down to about 981 hPa atm, possibly dropping 20 to 24 hPa in 24 hrs
This to me looks like a warm core LP system, temperatures should rise on it's approach, very humid with a high Thete E reading and looks ripe for thunderstorm development from the early hours in the SW and S. Plenty of lower and upper level shear.
The Jet doing it's bit again.
Fairly good model agreement at this stage on track. UKMO, ICON showing stronger winds than ECM, GFS showing strong winds on coasts but all this to be tweaked one way or the other over the next few days.
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some fairly significant weather on the way over the next week.
Tuesday could be potentially one of the wettest days of 2020 with some very intense rainfall. Once this clears we go into a cool and showery northerly with temperatures dropping away with night time frosts possible by next Friday and into the weekend. Potentially another very wet day on Thursday as well.
Tuesday could also be quite windy, currently the GFS has us just missing out on some very strong winds across the south, wouldn't take much of an adjustment for this to be a direct hit with the south of the country.
The arpege does bring the winds a little further north with winds close to 100km/h across the south.
The northern half of the country may well end up with the most rainfall over the next 7 days with close to 100mm of rain falling over the coming week.
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