Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

Thanks.

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Summer is finally here and here's hoping we see more in the way of warmer weather than we did last summer where we got so close but just missed out for the most part.

Today and tomorrow get summer off to a great start, however it turns much cooler from Wednesday and this weekend looks unseasonably cold with a very cool northerly in play.





We get -2C uppers widely across the country with the -4 uppers into the north.

daytime temperatures may struggle to reach double figures in parts of the north with low teens elsewhere. Nights may get cold enough for a frost in sheltered areas.



The cool conditions will persist for much of the following week. We may also see the return of showers, but at the moment they look fairly light and scattered and may return no more than 1 to 5mm of rain over the course of a few days.

Gonzo

The ECM and GFS are set on course to bring a return to warmer and mostly dryer conditions into next week. However not all the models are in agreement for mid week next week.

The UK Met wants to bring us an unsettled and cool spell next Wednesday.

Monday and Tuesday look fairly settled with average temperatures returning, but they have a low over Iceland which looks set to drift down over us on Wednesday:





This low has the potential to deliver a fair bit of rain if it happens and temperatures would be cool. The UK Met only goes as far as next Thursday so the low pulls off to our south leaving us in a cool easterly flow.



The GEM turned much more unsettled today too and it is also on board with this low sliding through Ireland on Wednesday delivering a decent splash of rain.



As I said neither the GFS or ECM are showing this, I hope the UKMO and GEM is wrong about this of course but let's see who is right or will the ECM and GFS also get on board with this low for next Wednesday and Thursday.

Gonzo

ECM now on board too for a spell of rain and some cool weather on Wednesday, so that just leaves the GFS on it's own with a warm and dry week next week. All of a sudden next week is looking more promising for farmers and gardeners wanting rain.

Gonzo

at this stage there is no point looking into FI the models are not in agreement even over the next 7 days.

The GFS looks to be the most settled for next week as we attempt to build a ridge over us from the Azores, however low pressures are not too far from our north-west at any stage and it wouldn't take much to position these close to or over Ireland.





If the GFS is correct we should have a better week next week than this week, it will certainly be warmer and largely dry with some decent spells of warm sunshine. Temperatures would high teen to low twenties much of the time, possibly mid twenties in a few locations.

This warmer and dryer solution for next week is certainly far from guaranteed however.

The ECM is not so kind for Ireland, next week is looking rather cool and cloudy with rain at times with the warmer and dryer conditions staying to our east over mainland UK and into Europe.



ECM looks great for the UK as next week progresses but a different story for us as the Atlantic continues to nip away at our temperatures and any chance of fine settled weather. Leinster may get the best chance of any sunshine that's going but even here temperatures won't be all that great.



UKMO only goes out as far as Tuesday and it continues the unsettled theme going over Ireland with Atlantic fronts nipping away into our summer weather.



GEM is also fairly unsettled and cool for next week with the Atlantic winning the battle over Ireland and eventually the UK as well.





The GFS is on it's own with it's warmer and dryer solution. All the other models are going for another poor week for Ireland with generally cool and unsettled conditons.

Gonzo

This weekend is looking quite interesting, we get a slight lift up in the temperatures which is a good thing because today is very chilly and we could do with warmer temperatures.

Looks very unsettled too on both Saturday and Sunday with plenty of heavy showers and downpours across all parts of the country.

On Saturday showers will move east to west across the country in a spiral movement.



Showers could well be more intense and widespread than what is shown in the above map.

Despite the unsettled conditions it will be much warmer than recently with temperatures getting close to 20C in many areas.



Thunderstorms are possible or at least thundery showers, particularly across the west and north during Saturday afternoon and early evening.



Sunday will be a very unsettled day indeed with showers slow moving and frequent spiraling across the country from east to west, perhaps some longer outbreaks of heavy rain in places.



Between 20 and 30mm of rain could fall in many places over the weekend, I suspect a few places will see more than this.

Sunday likely to be cooler with so much rain and showers around and very little sunshine. Mid to high teens generally.



Thunder is possible on Sunday but a lower risk than Saturday. I suspect this might get upgraded closer to Sunday.

Meteorite58

Getting windy especially along coasts and the SE coasts looking the strongest .

eon1208

Gonzo. Thanks again for forecasts. Can you explain a lttle about the Cape chart please . Excellent work.

Gonzo wrote: »

This weekend is looking quite interesting, we get a slight lift up in the temperatures which is a good thing because today is very chilly and we could do with warmer temperatures.

Looks very unsettled too on both Saturday and Sunday with plenty of heavy showers and downpours across all parts of the country.

On Saturday showers will move east to west across the country in a spiral movement.



Showers could well be more intense and widespread than what is shown in the above map.

Despite the unsettled conditions it will be much warmer than recently with temperatures getting close to 20C in many areas.



Thunderstorms are possible or at least thundery showers, particularly across the west and north during Saturday afternoon and early evening.



Sunday will be a very unsettled day indeed with showers slow moving and frequent spiraling across the country from east to west, perhaps some longer outbreaks of heavy rain in places.



Between 20 and 30mm of rain could fall in many places over the weekend, I suspect a few places will see more than this.

Sunday likely to be cooler with so much rain and showers around and very little sunshine. Mid to high teens generally.



Thunder is possible on Sunday but a lower risk than Saturday. I suspect this might get upgraded closer to Sunday.

Gonzo

eon1208 wrote: »

Gonzo. Thanks again for forecasts. Can you explain a lttle about the Cape chart please . Excellent work.

CAPE is a measure of energy that can be created if there is enough heat in a cloud to give convection.

The values are shown in Joules per Kilogram of air.

The greater the energy that is released during convection, the greater will be the charge separation and the more lightning can occur.

CAPE index of lightning risk
< 1000 -Slight risk
1000 - 2500 - Moderate risk
2500 - 3500 - Big risk
> 3500 - Extremely likely

CAPE is the positive buoyancy of an air mass and indicates the atmospheric instability, which can predict the likelyhood of thunderstorms.

Values from 1000 to 2000 can indicate forming of moderate thunderstorms, and over 2000 severe ones.

The charts I posted yesterday had values of close to 1,000 for the midlands on Saturday. Today the risk has been reduced for Saturday and upgraded for Sunday with values of close to 1,000 across the midlands. These could produce your typical Irish style thunderstorms but nothing on the scale that the continent and sometimes southern England gets to enjoy during the summer.



chart for next Friday



Those red colours over France on the 2,000 to 2,500 scale are the real deal, even the ones over SE England are over 1,000. It is extremely rare to see these values in Ireland but it can happen.

Gonzo

thunderstorm risk is upgrading for the weekend, midlands, west and north-west most at risk. Probably won't be much for the east coast as usual.



On Sunday greatest risk is over Ulster and parts of the north-west and north midlands.



eastern areas might have a low risk on Tuesday.


Temperatures on Saturday, high teens to maybe 20C.



On Sunday the warmth is mainly across the north of the country.

eon1208

Thank you Gonzo. That's interesting that convection movement creates the charge that leads to lightning. Can you recall the values of CAPE for that lightning storm in early July last year that arrived in Waterford and rapidly moved up over the midlands. I presume they were greater than 1000.

Spencer Brown

Please stop quoting entire posts of images.

Gonzo

eon1208 wrote: »

Thank you Gonzo. That's interesting that convection movement creates the charge that leads to lightning. Can you recall the values of CAPE for that lightning storm in early July last year that arrived in Waterford and rapidly moved up over the midlands. I presume they were greater than 1000.

Unfortunately I don't have any data for that storm, if anyone has any data on that storm, maybe they can answer your question!

Meteorite58

Looking very unsettled over next weekend, LP coming close to the country sending in frontal bands, blustery. Temperatures not bad in the E initially, poor enough elsewhere.

Meteorite58

Model predictions of 24 hr rainfall up to early Fri am.

Meteorite58

Wet and windy Saturday, heavier rainfall switching over to the Western half of the country, blustery Sunday with showers or some longer spells of rain.

ECM has the Lp closer to us on the latest runs, some quite heavy rain and windy frontal passage .

Gonzo

We are now into the second half of June. We have had an interesting and mixed first half of June with plenty of showers, thunderstorms, some cold weather and some warm sunny days, a real mixture with a very uneven distribution of rainfall.

The drought conditions ended in many areas with much needed rain particularly across Leinster, parts of Munster and the north-west. Midland areas are still on the dry side, particularly County Offally.

The next week see's plenty of changes in our weather and indeed alot of uncertainty as we move into next week.

The weekend is probably the easiest to predict. The Atlantic is going to have a serious go at trying to impact our weather over the next week however it may have a battle on it's hands later next week.

A deepening low out in the middle of the Atlantic is heading towards Ireland for the weekend. Currently it is due to track quite close to the country with a band of heavy rain crossing the country on Saturday and into Sunday.



This band of rain could produce substantial falls of rain across the country with a real soaking on the table for the second half of Saturday. and into Saturday night. Midland areas in particular will not miss out this time around with rain right up through the country.



Sunday see's a clearance to blustery showers, most of these across the west with eastern areas perhaps staying dryer.

Now the tricky part. Monday see's another band of rain move into the south-west, this looks like it will push north-eastwards with rain across many western and northern areas. There is a possibility this band of rain may not reach the east and south-east as higher pressure builds across eastern areas. Temperatures generally mid teens but high teens to low twenties is possible across eastern and south-eastern areas if there are any decent spells of warm sunshine with the +10 isoterm just nudging into Leinster.



Tuesday may see another band of rain push into western areas but as it does so it may bump up against high pressure and move northwards, this band of rain may not make it much further than the Shannon but we shall see. Turning warm or possibly very warm across Leinster and parts of eastern Munster if sunny spells develop with the +11 isoterm pushing through the east.



Wednesday may see a return to dryer conditions across the country with very little if any rain, there may be a few light showers in the north-west but most places staying dry and relative mild with temperatures high teens to low 20's.

Thursday continues with dry and relatively settled conditions and some decent sunny spells. Temperatures generally high teens with low 20's in parts.

Friday looks similar but higher uppers crossing the country could lead to low 20's across most of the country.

This could all look very different in a few days time but it's beginning to look like things may begin to settle down and warm up after a fairly unsettled weekend to come. Eastern and south-eastern areas are now very close to have a warm or potentially very warm week at times next week and with a bit of luck the whole country may be fairly warm and settled by the end of next week.

Gonzo

latest GEM is similar to the GFS run, after an unsettled weekend things begin to warm up considerably next week particularly across Leinster and parts so Munster.

This may possibly be an outlier but if this verifies we could potentially see the warmest weather of the year so far.



On Wednesday and into Thursday warmer uppers crossing the country from the south-east with +8 to +13 uppers possible.

Next Friday may see +15 to +17 uppers across the country with some very warm and potentially hot conditions.







This mornings ECM was showing something very similar to this with +15 or +16 uppers across the country next Thursday into Friday. Hopefully next week's heat surge verifies, at this stage many of us would like the weather to settle down after a somewhat mixed June so far.

Gonzo

This evenings ECM not as supportive of very warm weather next week compared to this mornings run, which was a bit of an outlier. It keeps the low a bit closer to us over the next week but still get's there in the end with warm weather next Thursday into Friday.

Warm uppers move into southern and eastern areas on Monday. Could feel fairly muggy with warm air passing through the country.



We become more influenced by the ridge from Wednesday



Very warm by Friday with the +10C isoterm across the country, however there is the threat of low pressure brushing up against us again on the weekend.



This ECM not as warm as this morning's run or the latest GEM. Currently the GFS, GEM and ECM are trending towards dryer and warmer conditons through next week.

There is still the possibility this warming trend could fall apart as this is almost a week away. This weekend's low pressure is key to unlocking the warmth next week. Hopefully the low pressure get's out of the way and pushes far enough north from Monday and into Tuesday to draw in this warmer air. If the low stalls off our western coast, we may have to wait longer to get back into a warm and settled spell.

Meteorite58

All the models showing it a bit windier for Saturday on the latest runs. Windy for the time of the year . Atm looking like gusting up to 80 or 90 km/h on coasts and gusting up around 70 km/h overland, bit more on higher ground.

Plenty of rainfall up to Sunday night






More heavy rain on Monday and plenty of rain to follow after that.

Gonzo

Not a lot has changed in the forecast since yesterday. We are still on course for a very unsettled few days with all parts of the country seeing plenty of rain between now and next Tuesday.

The UK seems locked in at this stage to a spell of very warm and settled weather next week. Yesterday showed hope that perhaps Leinster and parts of Munster would tap into this warmth and some dryer conditions from early next week but it was knifeedge stuff with the smallest shift in tracking meaning the difference between a cool and unsettled week compared to a warm and dryer week.

This mornings runs keeps the Atlantic lows slightly closer to us compared to yesterday. A wet day on Saturday, up to 30mm of rain in places. Cool and showery on Sunday, could easily dump another 10mm of rain particularly in the west.





Temperatures this weekend will struggle everywhere and it will be fairly windy at times.

Monday brings another wet day with rain sliding up the country from the south-west, possibly another 10 to 15mm of rain from that pulse of rain.



Temperatures on Monday maybe slightly warmer than the weekend, low to mid teens in most places under the rain but if there is any brightness maybe high teens are possible temporarily before rain takes over.

Tuesday is possibly the start of the battleground between the Atlantic and the Azores over Ireland.

Tuesday see's another very wet day in the west. This band of heavy rain slides up the western coast and doesn't make much progress into the country with higher pressure keeping eastern areas dry.



Temperatures Tuesday low to mid teens in the west with rain at times, in the east temperatures mid to high teens, possibly 20C if we manage to get some spells of sunshine.



From Wednesday the low moves away from Ireland to the north and this allows the ridge to extend it's influence into the country a bit more. At the moment there doesn't look like Ireland will get much in the way of proper warmth, high teens to low 20's is certainly possible in some nice spells of sunshine from Wednesday to Friday. Next weekend may get warmer again, possibly mid 20's but at this stage we're into FI.

This weekend's unsettled spell is locked in at this stage but there is still some time to get next week a bit more settled particularly in eastern areas. There is still a chance of drawing in some very warm air towards the end of next week but I would like to see the models shifting everything from Monday back westwards to have some confidence towards a settled and dry spell, even if it's only for a few days.

Next week's outlook will likely have changes to it again over the next few days, even small adjustments can really impact our weather next week, could mean the difference between a cool autumnal week or summer returning.

Gonzo

latest GFS is fairly similar again but perhaps a bit dryer and warmer. It struggles to get Monday's rain to the far east of the country with maybe only a few spits and spots of rain.

Another band of rain on Tuesday sliding up through the country, this fails to make it to south-eastern areas and parts of eastern Leinster. Temperatures creeping up to 20C in places with some fairly warm uppers across the country, but with cloud and rain it may not feel that warm.

Wednesday has light showery rain but they may not verify. Temperatures high teens to possibly 20 or 21C in parts of Leinster.

Thursday we extend the ridge across the country, temperatures into the low twenties in many areas with hopefully some decent spells of warm sunshine.



Friday builds the warmth further with many places getting to 23 possibly 24C.



Saturday (getting into FI territory here), could be the warmest day in quite a while with mid twenties possible in many places, high twenties possible in a few spots.





Turns cooler again from Sunday.

This is still very much knifedge stuff, I am not sure we are going to get much more of a westwards shift once we have that low pressure in place off our west coast from tomorrow. Hopefully that Azores gives it more than a nudge to get out of the way quicker next week. The difference between an unsettled week of 18C and a warming trend with mid twenties cans swing very quickly as it doesn't take much movement to stay in autumn or restart summer. It is also possible Leinster and munster may just end up in a little cloudy area of no mans land sandwiched between wetter and cooler weather to our west and much warmer and sunnier weather to our east.



If the ensembles are right, Dublin and much of Leinster may start to dry out from Sunday with very little rain possible over the coming week.

We will probably swing between cool and wetter and warm and dryer runs for next week a few more times given the uncertainty our position on the edge of the Atlantic creates when it comes to building up warm and dry weather while an Atlantic pattern is trying to get going.

Meteorite58

Will get a few hours dry in the morning here in Kerry before the front arrives, maybe up until the early afternoon. Some heavy rain showing up along Southern counties and quite windy especially for coastal counties will feel it across the country owing to the time of the year with so much foliage.

Gonzo

The GEM has a slightly different take on the next 7 days compared to the GFS and ECM. Charts on all models are fairly similar up to next Thursday but then some disagreement about a cool breakdown next Friday.

The latest GEM run is a bit kinder to Ireland in terms of sunshine and warmth this week compared to the other models. The GEM is a fairly decent model and has performed quite well over the past month, certainly has got it right more often than the GFS which has had a poor run recently.

Having said that my confidence with this GEM run isn't particularly high as both the GFS, ECM and UKMO bring in that low for next Friday and the weekend.

Tuesday looks similar on the GEM with all the other models, the low pressure is just off to our west and the azores is builiding across England and Wales with a heatwave developing there. We are stuck in no man's land between low pressure and high pressure. Uppers are fairly high but we may not feel it as there could be bands of rain or showers over Ireland on Tuesday.





Despite the uppers, the temperatures on the ground not that great with alot of cloud and bits of rain around, low to mid teens at best, maybe a hint at high teens in parts of Leinster if we manage to get some spells of sunshine going.



Wednesday see's the Azores building over the UK with the ridge beginning to have an influence on the weather over Ireland. Any showers dying out by this stage and the +10 isoterm crosses into the country from the south-east.



Temperatures high teens to low 20's across the east and south with the south-east in particular getting quite warm inland. Still a bit cooler across the north and west with Atlantic air still in place, but it should be dry just about everywhere.



On Thursday the warm uppers move westward and we start drawing in very warm +10 to +14 uppers into the country, this would be enough to get to the mid twenties in places, particularly across the south-east.



Friday is where the models differ. GFS, ECM and UKMO bring in a low from the west with much cooler conditions spreading across all parts of Ireland and the UK into the weekend. The GEM is a bit different tho.

The GEM keeps the low out to our west instead of letting it topple in over the country.



Friday keeps very warm uppers across the country and especially across the south with mid twenties possible, low twenties elsewhere.



The low stays out to our west on Saturday and we start drawing in winds from the south-east, this lowers the temperature across eastern and southern coastal regions.



GEM finally goes for that breakdown on Sunday ( 2 days later than all the other models) with cooler air heading in from the west, but still possibly quite warm across the east on Sunday.



Of all the models this run is certainly the best one for Ireland and it keeps the azores ridge going for an extra few days. Although the GEM has performed well recently, I would like to see both the GFS and ECM fall in line with this run more before I begin to feel confident about any of this warm weather later next week and into the weekend.

Gonzo

A chance of some very autumnal weather this weekend, particularly on Sunday with a deep area of low pressure crossing the country. This low pressure could introduce much windier weather for a time and a drop in temperatures for the second week of July.

Rainfall amounts don't look too much over the weekend but it will always be wetter to the north and west.





Warmer air on Saturday will be pushed away from Sunday as the lower temperatures become established from Sunday afternoon and lasting into the second week of July. Temperatures generally in the 11 to 13C range.



The main feature of this will be the wind. Gusts up to 120km/h may impact just off our western coastline with gusts up to 100km/h crossing inland.





Still 4 to 5 days to go with this one, but if this verifies it would be a fairly strong to slightly stormy system for early July and it will be unseasonably cool with temperatures several degree's below average for the time of year.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

A chance of some very autumnal weather this weekend, particularly on Sunday with a deep area of low pressure crossing the country.

Still 4 to 5 days to go with this one, but if this verifies it would be a fairly strong to slightly stormy system for early July and it will be unseasonably cool with temperatures several degree's below average for the time of year.

Oh god, just when I thought things couldn’t get any worse. What awful timing for the height of summer. Sad times

eon1208

MT's forecast today appeared more positive than this. Hopefully this doesn'tcome to pass. Keep us posted Gonzo.. Question.. Why is there little rainfall with a deep low like this. Educate me Gonzo please..

Spencer Brown

EON can you please stop quoting posts full of images?

pauldry

Any chance of any snow with this system?

That's all we are missing now. It's easy to see the climates a bit messed up isnt it?

We've had days of 27c followed by 10c and 26c followed by 11c

I guess that least this weeks 11c will follow a 16c

As we head to mid July things improve significantly

Gonzo

eon1208 wrote: »

MT's forecast today appeared more positive than this. Hopefully this doesn'tcome to pass. Keep us posted Gonzo.. Question.. Why is there little rainfall with a deep low like this. Educate me Gonzo please..

The main focus of my post is really this Sunday as it is something to watch, but as it's 5 days away it may not come to pass. Saturday looks decent enough with temperatures a bit warmer than we've had recently with relatively warm south-westerlies, could get close to 20C in places.

This low on Sunday looks like the main thing it will do is to introduce a cool spell which looks like lasting a few days. At the same time we do look like we'll start drying out as the Azores will make an attempt hopefully over the next 2 weeks.

Some of the other models aren't showing this very windy spell at all, keeping the low, wind and rain further to our north. It's the GFS that is showing this potentially very windy spell on Sunday.

nacho libre

I hope I am wrong, but It looks to me like we won't get any protracted settled weather now in July, rather we'll get the azores high ridging in over parts of the country settlings things down for a while, but the north west could remain wet much of the time as fronts and low pressure systems are close by.

alentejo

Last Sunday was certainly autumnal. Lots of rain and very windy. Surprised there wasn't a wind warning in east.

Looks like a repeat performance this Sunday. Pay back for all the lovely April and May

Gonzo

Saturday is still looking fairly warm in comparison to what we've had over the past week with temperatures possibly reaching the high teens or 20C in some eastern and southern places. Saturday might be a good day to get some gardening done or the lawns cut.



latest updates cancel the strong winds for Sunday but we still get the cool temperatures and some rain early on Sunday.

Cork Boy 53

nacho libre wrote: »

I hope I am wrong, but It looks to me like we won't get any protracted settled weather now in July, rather we'll get the azores high ridging in over parts of the country settlings things down for a while, but the north west could remain wet much of the time as fronts and low pressure systems are close by.

Ah well even if the rest of the summer turns out to be a write off there is always the chance of a settled spell in September similar to what happened last year. Something to get our hopes up for anyway.

Gonzo

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Ah well even if the rest of the summer turns out to be a write off there is always the chance of a settled spell in September similar to what happened last year. Something to get our hopes up for anyway.

I think we will see some settled spells well before September. With alot of luck we may even have a very brief settled spell as early as next week and at this stage i'll take any dry days that are coming with open arms.

nacho libre

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Ah well even if the rest of the summer turns out to be a write off there is always the chance of a settled spell in September similar to what happened last year. Something to get our hopes up for anyway.

Well, the thing is the east, south, and south east could get settled weather from the azores ridging in from time to time, while the north west is plagued by weather fronts. So some places could well get several days of fine and warm weather, but i'm doubtful we'll have three to four weeks of settled weather anywhere.

Gaoth Laidir

There seems to be a hint of a so-called atmospheric river scenario setting up, with low pressure to our northwest and and extension of the Azores high over Europe, lining the polar front over us and feeding in a constant stream of systems developing along it. This has been a feature of a lot of our poorer Augusts of recent years and is probably in part due to the stark temperature gradient in sea waters east of New Foundland. I would prefer this to happen now and save the better set up for a month from now, when harvesting will be at its peak.

pauldry

July looks to be slowly patterning into a complete unsettled month with some dry days but rain most days especially in the North and West.

Will it beat my June total of 163.8mm?

eon1208

MT's forecast is not positive in the near term. He is pushing any extended settled spell back now to late July or early August. Its payback for all the cool dry weather in april and may. Only positive is early next week could extend for a couple of days. How likely is this ?. Can anyone say.

nacho libre

eon1208 wrote: »

MT's forecast is not positive in the near term. He is pushing any extended settled spell back now to late July or early August. Its payback for all the cool dry weather in april and may. Only positive is early next week could extend for a couple of days. How likely is this ?. Can anyone say.

There will be some dry days next week and beyond, but it's beginning to look like some places will have a very wet July. Gonzo's wish for a prolonged settled spell looks very unlikely at this stage.

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

There will be some dry days next week and beyond, but it's beginning to look like some places will have a very wet July. Gonzo's wish for a prolonged settled spell looks very unlikely at this stage.

The first half of July looks like we are so close to something great, but yet too far. The Azores wants to get here but these lows from the north Atlantic look set to continue to spoil any attempt from the Azores to build properly over the next week or two at least. We may get the odd dry day here and there particularly across the south and east where it stands the best chance of tapping into a minor influence from a ridge.

I'm expecting the first half of July to be similar to June but generally cooler and more regularity with the rainfall as it will be coming from the Atlantic. My hopes of a warm and settled second half of July are certainly far from guaranteed at this stage as the current pattern could easily last into August.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

The first half of July looks like we are so close to something great, but yet too far. The Azores wants to get here but these lows from the north Atlantic look set to continue to spoil any attempt from the Azores to build properly over the next week or two at least. We may get the odd dry day here and there particularly across the south and east where it stands the best chance of tapping into a minor influence from a ridge.

.

Yes. It looks like it will be similar to a lot of summers past, where by the continent and the south east of England could often be warm and sunny. As you say some parts of Ireland may tap into the fine weather at times, but some other places may see rainfall amounts that are close to their June totals.

Meteorite58

Blustery at times especially Sunday. Another wet weekend, feeling cool from Sunday for a couple of days before temperatures recovering again midweek ( bit up and down after that ), might be a bit thundery in Northern counties Sunday.

Meteorite58

Models have upped the wind speeds Saturday night into Sunday and very blustery Sunday also. Very windy along NW and N coasts in the early hours of Sunday morning, more like a winters gale. Will feel very windy for the time of year inland in the early hours of Sunday morning also.

Fairly tight isobars off the NW.

Might see more widespread yellow warnings for a time. Could increase further perhaps ?

Meteorite58

Lp deepens as it tracks off the NW Sat night / Sunday morning heading towards Scotland.

Gaoth Laidir

THe ECM Extreme Weather Index for wind gusts is up to 0.9 for much of the country in the 24 hours up to Monday 1 am. This index varies from 0 to 1 and is a measure of how unusual the gusts will be for the time of year. It's not a direct measure of how strong they will be, only how unusual for the time of year. The same gusts in January would barely register on this index.

pauldry

Damn I thought you were promising a heatwave.

However things do look a lot better as week goes on so maybe ....

Gonzo

after an incredibly wet start to July things are thankfully starting to dry out, particularly in eastern and southern areas.

Still a good deal of uncertainty in regards to this week's weather, particularly from Wednesday onwards.

The main point about this week is it will be considerably dryer than last week but it may still be mixed at times. Many eastern areas saw in excess of 50mm over the past week, this week we will be lucky to see 10mm to 15mm so there should be some dry periods during the week so it will be easier to get some gardening done. Temperatures have also been very poor for July so far, many areas are close to 2C below the seasonal average, however we will see a slight warm up in the temperatures this week.

A few models have hinted towards it turning much warmer or even hot by next weekend, these are outliers and they are unlikely to verify. If we get lucky with the azores ridge, temperatures could reach 22 or 23 in places by the end of this week.

Temperatures will be average or a little below at times over the next few days with rather mixed conditons and fair deal of cloud. More unsettled generally towards the north-west with spells of rain and drizzle there persisting for much of the coming week.

Monday will see things warming up slightly across the east and south, remaining cooler further north and west. Temperatures 12 to 16C across the north and west and 16C to 20C across the east and south if there are spells of sunshine.



Tuesday could bring a spell of rain across the country, much of this will be light or patchy in the east and south but it could be quite heavy across the west and north-west.



Tuesday will be quite a cool day across the country with temperatures 11 to 14C generally but it may be slightly warmer across the far south.



Wednesday will be a dryer day away from the north-west with the Azores lining up to have another go at influencing our weather.



Temperatures on Wednesday warming up again with high teens in many places, low to mid teens across the north-west where it may remain cloudy with rain or drizzle at times.



Thursday and Friday will be dry generally but more in the way of sunny spells. Temperatures beginning to recover too with high teens to maybe 20C possible in many areas. These days may provide the best opportunities to get the gardening done or lawns cut!





The weekend is quite uncertain so Saturday is as far as i'm going to go with this forecast for now. Most models want to bring the Azores ridge over us for the weekend but some models have the Atlantic rolling back in as early as Saturday which could deliver quite a cool and unsettled weekend in comparison to the other models.

Saturday is very much on a knife edge with a trialing band of rain rolling in from the Atlantic across the west and north, this could be heavy at times but as it moves eastwards it is likely to break up and become much patchier with higher pressure close to eastern and southern areas.



Temperatures on Saturday generally high teens to low 20's particularly if there are sunny spells, however the west and north may be cooler if the low from the Atlantic rolls in.



The uncertainty remains in the forecasts this week, particularly in regards to next weekends ridge, will it influence our weather or will the cooler Atlantic have it's way with us again remains to be seen.

Donegal Storm

So another week of 13C, cloud and rain to look forward to in the north west, lovely stuff

Gonzo

Donegal Storm wrote: »

So another week of 13C, cloud and rain to look forward to in the north west, lovely stuff

If we get some luck with the models and the Azores it may improve in the north-west towards next weekend but we will know within the next 2 to 3 days how next weekend will play out. Fingers crossed because we all could really do with a few sunny and warm days, this July has been absolutely atrocious so far.

nacho libre

Well, i don't know about the other poster but i've given up on getting hay saved this year. We'll be lucky to get two settled days next weekend the way it's looking. If anyone is planning a staycation this week don't head for the North West, unless you like drizzle and cool temperatures

eon1208

Hi Nacho. I'm on staycation. Was lured by orders of the wife. I did absolutely nothing today. On the river shannon now. A cloudy, wet, cool and generally autumnal day. Not an iota of blue to be seen at the minute. But I'm relaxing. I decided to give it one last shot the coming weekend as the field was closed up late. I'm in the Midlands and dryer than up there but no sun. It either happens or it doesn't. Guys here are saying the azores is still there or thereabouts. So it really is down to the wire now.