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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 01-06-2020 11:13am
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

    If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

    Thanks.




    Summer is finally here and here's hoping we see more in the way of warmer weather than we did last summer where we got so close but just missed out for the most part.

    Today and tomorrow get summer off to a great start, however it turns much cooler from Wednesday and this weekend looks unseasonably cold with a very cool northerly in play.

    GFSOPEU06_126_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_144_2.png

    We get -2C uppers widely across the country with the -4 uppers into the north.

    daytime temperatures may struggle to reach double figures in parts of the north with low teens elsewhere. Nights may get cold enough for a frost in sheltered areas.

    GFSOPUK06_138_5.png

    The cool conditions will persist for much of the following week. We may also see the return of showers, but at the moment they look fairly light and scattered and may return no more than 1 to 5mm of rain over the course of a few days.


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    The ECM and GFS are set on course to bring a return to warmer and mostly dryer conditions into next week. However not all the models are in agreement for mid week next week.

    The UK Met wants to bring us an unsettled and cool spell next Wednesday.

    Monday and Tuesday look fairly settled with average temperatures returning, but they have a low over Iceland which looks set to drift down over us on Wednesday:

    UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

    UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

    This low has the potential to deliver a fair bit of rain if it happens and temperatures would be cool. The UK Met only goes as far as next Thursday so the low pulls off to our south leaving us in a cool easterly flow.

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    The GEM turned much more unsettled today too and it is also on board with this low sliding through Ireland on Wednesday delivering a decent splash of rain.

    GEMOPEU12_108_1.png

    As I said neither the GFS or ECM are showing this, I hope the UKMO and GEM is wrong about this of course but let's see who is right or will the ECM and GFS also get on board with this low for next Wednesday and Thursday.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    ECM now on board too for a spell of rain and some cool weather on Wednesday, so that just leaves the GFS on it's own with a warm and dry week next week. All of a sudden next week is looking more promising for farmers and gardeners wanting rain.

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    at this stage there is no point looking into FI the models are not in agreement even over the next 7 days.

    The GFS looks to be the most settled for next week as we attempt to build a ridge over us from the Azores, however low pressures are not too far from our north-west at any stage and it wouldn't take much to position these close to or over Ireland.

    GFSOPEU12_147_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_207_1.png

    If the GFS is correct we should have a better week next week than this week, it will certainly be warmer and largely dry with some decent spells of warm sunshine. Temperatures would high teen to low twenties much of the time, possibly mid twenties in a few locations.

    This warmer and dryer solution for next week is certainly far from guaranteed however.

    The ECM is not so kind for Ireland, next week is looking rather cool and cloudy with rain at times with the warmer and dryer conditions staying to our east over mainland UK and into Europe.

    ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

    ECM looks great for the UK as next week progresses but a different story for us as the Atlantic continues to nip away at our temperatures and any chance of fine settled weather. Leinster may get the best chance of any sunshine that's going but even here temperatures won't be all that great.

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

    UKMO only goes out as far as Tuesday and it continues the unsettled theme going over Ireland with Atlantic fronts nipping away into our summer weather.

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    GEM is also fairly unsettled and cool for next week with the Atlantic winning the battle over Ireland and eventually the UK as well.

    GEMOPEU12_132_1.png

    GEMOPEU12_216_1.png

    The GFS is on it's own with it's warmer and dryer solution. All the other models are going for another poor week for Ireland with generally cool and unsettled conditons.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    This weekend is looking quite interesting, we get a slight lift up in the temperatures which is a good thing because today is very chilly and we could do with warmer temperatures.

    Looks very unsettled too on both Saturday and Sunday with plenty of heavy showers and downpours across all parts of the country.

    On Saturday showers will move east to west across the country in a spiral movement.

    arpegeuk-1-75-0.png?10-18

    Showers could well be more intense and widespread than what is shown in the above map.

    Despite the unsettled conditions it will be much warmer than recently with temperatures getting close to 20C in many areas.

    69-580UK.GIF?10-18

    Thunderstorms are possible or at least thundery showers, particularly across the west and north during Saturday afternoon and early evening.

    69-505UK.GIF?10-18

    Sunday will be a very unsettled day indeed with showers slow moving and frequent spiraling across the country from east to west, perhaps some longer outbreaks of heavy rain in places.

    102-777UK.GIF?11-18

    Between 20 and 30mm of rain could fall in many places over the weekend, I suspect a few places will see more than this.

    Sunday likely to be cooler with so much rain and showers around and very little sunshine. Mid to high teens generally.

    90-580UK.GIF?10-18

    Thunder is possible on Sunday but a lower risk than Saturday. I suspect this might get upgraded closer to Sunday.

    96-505UK.GIF?11-18


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Getting windy especially along coasts and the SE coasts looking the strongest .

    anim_qaz4.gif

    7AbJenx.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    Gonzo. Thanks again for forecasts. Can you explain a lttle about the Cape chart please . Excellent work.
    Gonzo wrote: »
    This weekend is looking quite interesting, we get a slight lift up in the temperatures which is a good thing because today is very chilly and we could do with warmer temperatures.

    Looks very unsettled too on both Saturday and Sunday with plenty of heavy showers and downpours across all parts of the country.

    On Saturday showers will move east to west across the country in a spiral movement.

    arpegeuk-1-75-0.png?10-18

    Showers could well be more intense and widespread than what is shown in the above map.

    Despite the unsettled conditions it will be much warmer than recently with temperatures getting close to 20C in many areas.

    69-580UK.GIF?10-18

    Thunderstorms are possible or at least thundery showers, particularly across the west and north during Saturday afternoon and early evening.

    69-505UK.GIF?10-18

    Sunday will be a very unsettled day indeed with showers slow moving and frequent spiraling across the country from east to west, perhaps some longer outbreaks of heavy rain in places.

    102-777UK.GIF?11-18

    Between 20 and 30mm of rain could fall in many places over the weekend, I suspect a few places will see more than this.

    Sunday likely to be cooler with so much rain and showers around and very little sunshine. Mid to high teens generally.

    90-580UK.GIF?10-18

    Thunder is possible on Sunday but a lower risk than Saturday. I suspect this might get upgraded closer to Sunday.

    96-505UK.GIF?11-18


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    eon1208 wrote: »
    Gonzo. Thanks again for forecasts. Can you explain a lttle about the Cape chart please . Excellent work.



    CAPE is a measure of energy that can be created if there is enough heat in a cloud to give convection.

    The values are shown in Joules per Kilogram of air.

    The greater the energy that is released during convection, the greater will be the charge separation and the more lightning can occur.

    CAPE index of lightning risk
    < 1000 -Slight risk
    1000 - 2500 - Moderate risk
    2500 - 3500 - Big risk
    > 3500 - Extremely likely

    CAPE is the positive buoyancy of an air mass and indicates the atmospheric instability, which can predict the likelyhood of thunderstorms.

    Values from 1000 to 2000 can indicate forming of moderate thunderstorms, and over 2000 severe ones.

    The charts I posted yesterday had values of close to 1,000 for the midlands on Saturday. Today the risk has been reduced for Saturday and upgraded for Sunday with values of close to 1,000 across the midlands. These could produce your typical Irish style thunderstorms but nothing on the scale that the continent and sometimes southern England gets to enjoy during the summer.

    81-505UK.GIF?11-6

    chart for next Friday

    204-505UK.GIF?11-6

    Those red colours over France on the 2,000 to 2,500 scale are the real deal, even the ones over SE England are over 1,000. It is extremely rare to see these values in Ireland but it can happen.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    thunderstorm risk is upgrading for the weekend, midlands, west and north-west most at risk. Probably won't be much for the east coast as usual.

    54-505UK.GIF?11-12

    On Sunday greatest risk is over Ulster and parts of the north-west and north midlands.

    78-505UK.GIF?11-12

    eastern areas might have a low risk on Tuesday.
    126-505UK.GIF?11-12

    Temperatures on Saturday, high teens to maybe 20C.

    51-580UK.GIF?11-12

    On Sunday the warmth is mainly across the north of the country.

    75-580UK.GIF?11-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    Thank you Gonzo. That's interesting that convection movement creates the charge that leads to lightning. Can you recall the values of CAPE for that lightning storm in early July last year that arrived in Waterford and rapidly moved up over the midlands. I presume they were greater than 1000.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 268 ✭✭ Spencer Brown


    Please stop quoting entire posts of images.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    eon1208 wrote: »
    Thank you Gonzo. That's interesting that convection movement creates the charge that leads to lightning. Can you recall the values of CAPE for that lightning storm in early July last year that arrived in Waterford and rapidly moved up over the midlands. I presume they were greater than 1000.

    Unfortunately I don't have any data for that storm, if anyone has any data on that storm, maybe they can answer your question!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looking very unsettled over next weekend, LP coming close to the country sending in frontal bands, blustery. Temperatures not bad in the E initially, poor enough elsewhere.

    1ILDzpP.png



    1na7eWr.png

    anim_lqa5.gif

    anim_ngg4.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Model predictions of 24 hr rainfall up to early Fri am.

    GdWUSFS.png

    tPEz3Cm.png

    F4gRbWF.png

    9hI9v8V.png

    hpRUUvi.png

    nmmuk-25-45-0_xzs3.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Wet and windy Saturday, heavier rainfall switching over to the Western half of the country, blustery Sunday with showers or some longer spells of rain.

    ECM has the Lp closer to us on the latest runs, some quite heavy rain and windy frontal passage .

    lApe2N4.png

    08JG55O.png

    jlDFyxf.gif

    anim_agf8.gif


    anim_exr8.gif

    iwl7ZC1.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    We are now into the second half of June. We have had an interesting and mixed first half of June with plenty of showers, thunderstorms, some cold weather and some warm sunny days, a real mixture with a very uneven distribution of rainfall.

    The drought conditions ended in many areas with much needed rain particularly across Leinster, parts of Munster and the north-west. Midland areas are still on the dry side, particularly County Offally.

    The next week see's plenty of changes in our weather and indeed alot of uncertainty as we move into next week.

    The weekend is probably the easiest to predict. The Atlantic is going to have a serious go at trying to impact our weather over the next week however it may have a battle on it's hands later next week.

    A deepening low out in the middle of the Atlantic is heading towards Ireland for the weekend. Currently it is due to track quite close to the country with a band of heavy rain crossing the country on Saturday and into Sunday.

    UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

    This band of rain could produce substantial falls of rain across the country with a real soaking on the table for the second half of Saturday. and into Saturday night. Midland areas in particular will not miss out this time around with rain right up through the country.

    GFSOPUK12_72_18.png

    Sunday see's a clearance to blustery showers, most of these across the west with eastern areas perhaps staying dryer.

    Now the tricky part. Monday see's another band of rain move into the south-west, this looks like it will push north-eastwards with rain across many western and northern areas. There is a possibility this band of rain may not reach the east and south-east as higher pressure builds across eastern areas. Temperatures generally mid teens but high teens to low twenties is possible across eastern and south-eastern areas if there are any decent spells of warm sunshine with the +10 isoterm just nudging into Leinster.

    GFSOPUK12_102_2.png

    Tuesday may see another band of rain push into western areas but as it does so it may bump up against high pressure and move northwards, this band of rain may not make it much further than the Shannon but we shall see. Turning warm or possibly very warm across Leinster and parts of eastern Munster if sunny spells develop with the +11 isoterm pushing through the east.

    GFSOPUK12_129_2.png

    Wednesday may see a return to dryer conditions across the country with very little if any rain, there may be a few light showers in the north-west but most places staying dry and relative mild with temperatures high teens to low 20's.

    Thursday continues with dry and relatively settled conditions and some decent sunny spells. Temperatures generally high teens with low 20's in parts.

    Friday looks similar but higher uppers crossing the country could lead to low 20's across most of the country.

    This could all look very different in a few days time but it's beginning to look like things may begin to settle down and warm up after a fairly unsettled weekend to come. Eastern and south-eastern areas are now very close to have a warm or potentially very warm week at times next week and with a bit of luck the whole country may be fairly warm and settled by the end of next week.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    latest GEM is similar to the GFS run, after an unsettled weekend things begin to warm up considerably next week particularly across Leinster and parts so Munster.

    This may possibly be an outlier but if this verifies we could potentially see the warmest weather of the year so far.

    GEMOPUK12_156_2.png

    On Wednesday and into Thursday warmer uppers crossing the country from the south-east with +8 to +13 uppers possible.

    Next Friday may see +15 to +17 uppers across the country with some very warm and potentially hot conditions.

    GEMOPUK12_192_2.png

    GEMOPUK12_168_5.png

    GEMOPUK12_192_5.png

    This mornings ECM was showing something very similar to this with +15 or +16 uppers across the country next Thursday into Friday. Hopefully next week's heat surge verifies, at this stage many of us would like the weather to settle down after a somewhat mixed June so far.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    This evenings ECM not as supportive of very warm weather next week compared to this mornings run, which was a bit of an outlier. It keeps the low a bit closer to us over the next week but still get's there in the end with warm weather next Thursday into Friday.

    Warm uppers move into southern and eastern areas on Monday. Could feel fairly muggy with warm air passing through the country.

    ECMOPUK12_96_2.png

    We become more influenced by the ridge from Wednesday

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

    Very warm by Friday with the +10C isoterm across the country, however there is the threat of low pressure brushing up against us again on the weekend.

    ECMOPEU12_192_2.png

    This ECM not as warm as this morning's run or the latest GEM. Currently the GFS, GEM and ECM are trending towards dryer and warmer conditons through next week.

    There is still the possibility this warming trend could fall apart as this is almost a week away. This weekend's low pressure is key to unlocking the warmth next week. Hopefully the low pressure get's out of the way and pushes far enough north from Monday and into Tuesday to draw in this warmer air. If the low stalls off our western coast, we may have to wait longer to get back into a warm and settled spell.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    All the models showing it a bit windier for Saturday on the latest runs. Windy for the time of the year . Atm looking like gusting up to 80 or 90 km/h on coasts and gusting up around 70 km/h overland, bit more on higher ground.

    Plenty of rainfall up to Sunday night

    anim_kre1.gif


    anim_hbu6.gif

    More heavy rain on Monday and plenty of rain to follow after that.


    arpegeuk-25-114-0_vsz6.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Not a lot has changed in the forecast since yesterday. We are still on course for a very unsettled few days with all parts of the country seeing plenty of rain between now and next Tuesday.

    The UK seems locked in at this stage to a spell of very warm and settled weather next week. Yesterday showed hope that perhaps Leinster and parts of Munster would tap into this warmth and some dryer conditions from early next week but it was knifeedge stuff with the smallest shift in tracking meaning the difference between a cool and unsettled week compared to a warm and dryer week.

    This mornings runs keeps the Atlantic lows slightly closer to us compared to yesterday. A wet day on Saturday, up to 30mm of rain in places. Cool and showery on Sunday, could easily dump another 10mm of rain particularly in the west.

    ECMWF_042_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

    ECMWF_060_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

    Temperatures this weekend will struggle everywhere and it will be fairly windy at times.

    Monday brings another wet day with rain sliding up the country from the south-west, possibly another 10 to 15mm of rain from that pulse of rain.

    ECMWF_090_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

    Temperatures on Monday maybe slightly warmer than the weekend, low to mid teens in most places under the rain but if there is any brightness maybe high teens are possible temporarily before rain takes over.

    Tuesday is possibly the start of the battleground between the Atlantic and the Azores over Ireland.

    Tuesday see's another very wet day in the west. This band of heavy rain slides up the western coast and doesn't make much progress into the country with higher pressure keeping eastern areas dry.

    ECMWF_120_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

    Temperatures Tuesday low to mid teens in the west with rain at times, in the east temperatures mid to high teens, possibly 20C if we manage to get some spells of sunshine.

    ECMWF_150_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

    From Wednesday the low moves away from Ireland to the north and this allows the ridge to extend it's influence into the country a bit more. At the moment there doesn't look like Ireland will get much in the way of proper warmth, high teens to low 20's is certainly possible in some nice spells of sunshine from Wednesday to Friday. Next weekend may get warmer again, possibly mid 20's but at this stage we're into FI.

    This weekend's unsettled spell is locked in at this stage but there is still some time to get next week a bit more settled particularly in eastern areas. There is still a chance of drawing in some very warm air towards the end of next week but I would like to see the models shifting everything from Monday back westwards to have some confidence towards a settled and dry spell, even if it's only for a few days.

    Next week's outlook will likely have changes to it again over the next few days, even small adjustments can really impact our weather next week, could mean the difference between a cool autumnal week or summer returning.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    latest GFS is fairly similar again but perhaps a bit dryer and warmer. It struggles to get Monday's rain to the far east of the country with maybe only a few spits and spots of rain.

    Another band of rain on Tuesday sliding up through the country, this fails to make it to south-eastern areas and parts of eastern Leinster. Temperatures creeping up to 20C in places with some fairly warm uppers across the country, but with cloud and rain it may not feel that warm.

    Wednesday has light showery rain but they may not verify. Temperatures high teens to possibly 20 or 21C in parts of Leinster.

    Thursday we extend the ridge across the country, temperatures into the low twenties in many areas with hopefully some decent spells of warm sunshine.

    GFSOPEU12_147_1.png

    Friday builds the warmth further with many places getting to 23 possibly 24C.

    GFSOPUK12_171_5.png

    Saturday (getting into FI territory here), could be the warmest day in quite a while with mid twenties possible in many places, high twenties possible in a few spots.

    GFSOPUK12_195_5.png

    GFSOPUK12_198_2.png

    Turns cooler again from Sunday.

    This is still very much knifedge stuff, I am not sure we are going to get much more of a westwards shift once we have that low pressure in place off our west coast from tomorrow. Hopefully that Azores gives it more than a nudge to get out of the way quicker next week. The difference between an unsettled week of 18C and a warming trend with mid twenties cans swing very quickly as it doesn't take much movement to stay in autumn or restart summer. It is also possible Leinster and munster may just end up in a little cloudy area of no mans land sandwiched between wetter and cooler weather to our west and much warmer and sunnier weather to our east.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-06-19&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    If the ensembles are right, Dublin and much of Leinster may start to dry out from Sunday with very little rain possible over the coming week.

    We will probably swing between cool and wetter and warm and dryer runs for next week a few more times given the uncertainty our position on the edge of the Atlantic creates when it comes to building up warm and dry weather while an Atlantic pattern is trying to get going.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Will get a few hours dry in the morning here in Kerry before the front arrives, maybe up until the early afternoon. Some heavy rain showing up along Southern counties and quite windy especially for coastal counties will feel it across the country owing to the time of the year with so much foliage.

    anim_obm6.gif

    anim_wqp4.gif

    arpegeuk-25-34-0_jmo8.png

    7naJOOj.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    The GEM has a slightly different take on the next 7 days compared to the GFS and ECM. Charts on all models are fairly similar up to next Thursday but then some disagreement about a cool breakdown next Friday.

    The latest GEM run is a bit kinder to Ireland in terms of sunshine and warmth this week compared to the other models. The GEM is a fairly decent model and has performed quite well over the past month, certainly has got it right more often than the GFS which has had a poor run recently.

    Having said that my confidence with this GEM run isn't particularly high as both the GFS, ECM and UKMO bring in that low for next Friday and the weekend.

    Tuesday looks similar on the GEM with all the other models, the low pressure is just off to our west and the azores is builiding across England and Wales with a heatwave developing there. We are stuck in no man's land between low pressure and high pressure. Uppers are fairly high but we may not feel it as there could be bands of rain or showers over Ireland on Tuesday.

    GEMOPEU12_60_1.png

    GEMOPUK12_72_5.png

    Despite the uppers, the temperatures on the ground not that great with alot of cloud and bits of rain around, low to mid teens at best, maybe a hint at high teens in parts of Leinster if we manage to get some spells of sunshine going.

    GEMOPEU12_96_1.png

    Wednesday see's the Azores building over the UK with the ridge beginning to have an influence on the weather over Ireland. Any showers dying out by this stage and the +10 isoterm crosses into the country from the south-east.

    GEMOPUK12_96_5.png

    Temperatures high teens to low 20's across the east and south with the south-east in particular getting quite warm inland. Still a bit cooler across the north and west with Atlantic air still in place, but it should be dry just about everywhere.

    GEMOPUK12_120_2.png

    On Thursday the warm uppers move westward and we start drawing in very warm +10 to +14 uppers into the country, this would be enough to get to the mid twenties in places, particularly across the south-east.

    GEMOPUK12_120_5.png

    Friday is where the models differ. GFS, ECM and UKMO bring in a low from the west with much cooler conditions spreading across all parts of Ireland and the UK into the weekend. The GEM is a bit different tho.

    The GEM keeps the low out to our west instead of letting it topple in over the country.

    GEMOPEU12_144_1.png

    Friday keeps very warm uppers across the country and especially across the south with mid twenties possible, low twenties elsewhere.

    GEMOPUK12_144_5.png

    The low stays out to our west on Saturday and we start drawing in winds from the south-east, this lowers the temperature across eastern and southern coastal regions.

    GEMOPEU12_168_2.png

    GEM finally goes for that breakdown on Sunday ( 2 days later than all the other models) with cooler air heading in from the west, but still possibly quite warm across the east on Sunday.

    GEMOPUK12_192_5.png

    Of all the models this run is certainly the best one for Ireland and it keeps the azores ridge going for an extra few days. Although the GEM has performed well recently, I would like to see both the GFS and ECM fall in line with this run more before I begin to feel confident about any of this warm weather later next week and into the weekend.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    A chance of some very autumnal weather this weekend, particularly on Sunday with a deep area of low pressure crossing the country. This low pressure could introduce much windier weather for a time and a drop in temperatures for the second week of July.

    Rainfall amounts don't look too much over the weekend but it will always be wetter to the north and west.

    GFSOPUK06_129_1.png

    132-777UK.GIF?30-6

    Warmer air on Saturday will be pushed away from Sunday as the lower temperatures become established from Sunday afternoon and lasting into the second week of July. Temperatures generally in the 11 to 13C range.

    126-580UK.GIF?30-6

    The main feature of this will be the wind. Gusts up to 120km/h may impact just off our western coastline with gusts up to 100km/h crossing inland.

    126-289UK.GIF?30-6

    132-289UK.GIF?30-6

    Still 4 to 5 days to go with this one, but if this verifies it would be a fairly strong to slightly stormy system for early July and it will be unseasonably cool with temperatures several degree's below average for the time of year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 958 ✭✭✭ esposito


    Gonzo wrote: »
    A chance of some very autumnal weather this weekend, particularly on Sunday with a deep area of low pressure crossing the country.

    Still 4 to 5 days to go with this one, but if this verifies it would be a fairly strong to slightly stormy system for early July and it will be unseasonably cool with temperatures several degree's below average for the time of year.

    Oh god, just when I thought things couldn’t get any worse. What awful timing for the height of summer. Sad times


  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    MT's forecast today appeared more positive than this. Hopefully this doesn'tcome to pass. Keep us posted Gonzo.. Question.. Why is there little rainfall with a deep low like this. Educate me Gonzo please..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 268 ✭✭ Spencer Brown


    EON can you please stop quoting posts full of images?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Any chance of any snow with this system?

    That's all we are missing now. It's easy to see the climates a bit messed up isnt it?

    We've had days of 27c followed by 10c and 26c followed by 11c

    I guess that least this weeks 11c will follow a 16c

    As we head to mid July things improve significantly


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    eon1208 wrote: »
    MT's forecast today appeared more positive than this. Hopefully this doesn'tcome to pass. Keep us posted Gonzo.. Question.. Why is there little rainfall with a deep low like this. Educate me Gonzo please..

    The main focus of my post is really this Sunday as it is something to watch, but as it's 5 days away it may not come to pass. Saturday looks decent enough with temperatures a bit warmer than we've had recently with relatively warm south-westerlies, could get close to 20C in places.

    This low on Sunday looks like the main thing it will do is to introduce a cool spell which looks like lasting a few days. At the same time we do look like we'll start drying out as the Azores will make an attempt hopefully over the next 2 weeks.

    Some of the other models aren't showing this very windy spell at all, keeping the low, wind and rain further to our north. It's the GFS that is showing this potentially very windy spell on Sunday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    I hope I am wrong, but It looks to me like we won't get any protracted settled weather now in July, rather we'll get the azores high ridging in over parts of the country settlings things down for a while, but the north west could remain wet much of the time as fronts and low pressure systems are close by.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 752 ✭✭✭ alentejo


    Last Sunday was certainly autumnal. Lots of rain and very windy. Surprised there wasn't a wind warning in east.

    Looks like a repeat performance this Sunday. Pay back for all the lovely April and May


This discussion has been closed.
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