(Ernesto) Warning for High Intensity Rain Sat 18 PM / Sun 19 AM

pad199207 · 17-08-2018 12:22pm #1

High intensity rainfall over a relatively short period of time for many areas on Saturday night associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Ernesto. Situation to be monitored

Wheety · 17-08-2018 12:28pm

Do you know where the heaviest rainfall will be? Met says Dublin will have a mostly dry day.

Ray Donovan · 17-08-2018 12:29pm

Going to All Ireland on Sunday so could do with a dry day in Dublin!!

Ray Donovan · 17-08-2018 12:29pm

Going to All Ireland on Sunday so could do with a dry day in Dublin!!

average_runner · 17-08-2018 12:33pm

Wheety wrote: »

Do you know where the heaviest rainfall will be? Met says Dublin will have a mostly dry day.

He does say "Saturday night" in his post

sryanbruen · 17-08-2018 12:41pm

Let it rain, let it rain, in the southeast and east anyway.

Planet X · 17-08-2018 1:04pm

Can't wait......going camping in Wicklow tomorrow

:)

Cork Boy 53 · 17-08-2018 1:23pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Let it rain, let it rain, in the southeast and east anyway.

And the south as well.

igCorcaigh · 17-08-2018 1:24pm

Finally some interesting weather!

pauldry · 17-08-2018 1:39pm

All Ireland will be dry as will most of Sunday

Saturday night could see 30mm of rain in the West overnight so expect to see figures like 10mm when you look at Met Hourly reports Saturday night as opposed to the normal 1.5mm like a lot of todays hourlies

Mobhi1 · 17-08-2018 1:50pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Let it rain, let it rain, in the southeast and east anyway.

If it happens at night, great.

Graces7 · 17-08-2018 4:02pm

Glad to see the humour back!

Fierce wind here; all but blown over when I went to feed the hens. Hanging on to brambles is not good,...;)

autumn off to a flying start..the ocean is a glorious wild sight...

West Mayo, offshore island

Kermit.de.frog · 17-08-2018 4:06pm

I think some of these warnings are becoming totally unneeded.

The idea of a warning system is that you want people to take notice. It won't work if 'wolf' is being constantly cried for minimal "events".

There is nothing that suggests to me any warning level is justified here.

Aside from some normal marine warnings this is nothing out of the ordinary.

redsteveireland · 17-08-2018 4:12pm

Graces7 wrote: »

Glad to see the humour back!

Fierce wind here; all but blown over when I went to feed the hens. Hanging on to brambles is not good,...;)

autumn off to a flying start..the ocean is a glorious wild sight...

West Mayo, offshore island

I spotted some large branches down today on the way home, very windy with the trees still full of leaves.

pad199207 · 17-08-2018 4:17pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think some of these warnings are becoming totally unneeded.

The idea of a warning system is that you want people to take notice. It won't work if 'wolf' is being constantly cried for minimal "events".

There is nothing that suggests to me any warning level is justified here.

Aside from some normal marine warnings this is nothing out of the ordinary.

Come Sunday morning the country is under feet of water

pad199207 · 17-08-2018 4:49pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Lord Kermit has spoken, MÉ for shame.

There’s no shame in letting the public be aware that there is the chance of some rather nasty weather coming tomorrow evening and tomorrow night.

Drumpot · 17-08-2018 5:01pm

I am due to be getting a boat to Skellig Michael to get my picture with a Porg at around 8.30 sunday morning and returning later that morning. What do people think the weather will be like that morning ?

HighLine · 17-08-2018 5:02pm

pad199207 wrote: »

There’s no shame in letting the public be aware that there is the chance of some rather nasty weather coming tomorrow evening and tomorrow night.

Perhaps not shame but the effectiveness of such warnings is hampered. There were too many yellow warnings last winter for such systems and people start to ignore warnings once they find out it's just another typical Atlantic driven windy and wet day.

sryanbruen · 17-08-2018 5:03pm

pad199207 wrote: »

sryanbruen wrote: »

Lord Kermit has spoken, MÉ for shame.

There’s no shame in letting the public be aware that there is the chance of some rather nasty weather coming tomorrow evening and tomorrow night.

Where’s the evidence for this being nasty?

pad199207 · 17-08-2018 5:08pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Where’s the evidence for this being nasty?

Nasty as in very wet. Certainly looks to bring very wet weather.

RobertKK · 17-08-2018 5:35pm

Drumpot wrote: »

I am due to be getting a boat to Skellig Michael to get my picture with a Porg at around 8.30 sunday morning and returning later that morning. What do people think the weather will be like that morning ?

If the trip goes ahead is your main concern.

sryanbruen · 17-08-2018 5:38pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Nasty as in very wet. Certainly looks to bring very wet weather.

I ask the question again, where's the evidence to suggest this? I see nothing more than 25mm at most bar mountaineous regions.

Here's the rainfall charts from different models:

Am I missing something?

jackrussel · 17-08-2018 5:47pm

those charts/gifs would give someone a seizure

Harry Palmr · 17-08-2018 5:54pm

Met Eireann are just not interested in this supposed level 1 event.

Cork Boy 53 · 17-08-2018 5:59pm

RobertKK wrote: »

If the trip goes ahead is your main concern.

Indeed so. The force could be strong on Skellig Michael.

highdef · 17-08-2018 6:42pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think some of these warnings are becoming totally unneeded.

The idea of a warning system is that you want people to take notice. It won't work if 'wolf' is being constantly cried for minimal "events".

There is nothing that suggests to me any warning level is justified here.

Aside from some normal marine warnings this is nothing out of the ordinary.

Completely agree. Typical weather for any Atlantic sourced weather system. No out of the ordinary levels of rain or wind are expected. The only thing of note is that it will be quite mild. Maybe we should have a warning out telling people it will be milder than normal as the weather system passes over. They might be expecting the usual cool weather normally associated with prolonged rain during low pressure systems and get a shock to feel it mild. Best to warn them in advance..... LOL.

sdanseo · 17-08-2018 7:08pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think some of these warnings are becoming totally unneeded.

The idea of a warning system is that you want people to take notice. It won't work if 'wolf' is being constantly cried for minimal "events".

There is nothing that suggests to me any warning level is justified here.

Aside from some normal marine warnings this is nothing out of the ordinary.

Still not every day you see a structured, NHC-tracked post tropical storm over Ireland.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 53.5N 10.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on
rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products
issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie

If that comes off (co-ordinates are over Galway) it's an (edit: Yellow) warning, whether we agree with that or not of course is different.

Meteorite58 · 17-08-2018 7:52pm

A small system relative to some of the big LP's we get but possibly having the potential to drop a large amount of rainfall in a very short time. Totally justified in my view to bring the public's attention to this in being prepared. High ground will get a lot of rainfall and there could be plenty of run off in a very short space of time causing spot flooding. An interesting system to observe over a number of days and watching how the models handle it. As Met Eireann said ' The situation will continue to be monitored'.

Will begin to merge with a frontal system soon if it hasn't started already, that is where the totals could go up.

Meteorite58 · 17-08-2018 9:09pm

Well maybe that says it.

https://twitter.com/NASAHurricane/status/1030545635605467136

JCX BXC · 17-08-2018 9:24pm

Keep in mind it's an advisory, not a warning. There's a different!

SleetAndSnow · 17-08-2018 9:31pm

Looks like we will just get the wind down here in cork and not the rain! Ah I like going for a walk on the beach when it’s very windy!

MJohnston · 17-08-2018 9:42pm

Are people really getting grumpy about ME using Yellow Advisories now? There's a reason it's coded yellow, the same reason the thread title prefix for yellow advisories is "Be Aware".

If the public ignore a yellow advisory, that's fine - it's not a warning!

Or is the complaint that we're wasting precious forum juice on new threads? Internetting doesn't work that way.

MJohnston · 17-08-2018 9:44pm

PS. they've removed the Yellow ADVISORY now anyway.

MJohnston · 17-08-2018 9:45pm

From Met.ie (emphasis mine):

The concept behind YELLOW level weather alerts is to notify those who are at risk because of their location and/or activity, and to allow them to take preventative action. It is implicit that YELLOW level weather alerts are for weather conditions that do not pose an immediate threat to the general population, but only to those exposed to risk by nature of their location and/or activity.

km79 · 17-08-2018 9:48pm

MJohnston wrote: »

PS. they've removed the Yellow ADVISORY now anyway.

Good stuff
Looos like every other day this week now

sryanbruen · 17-08-2018 10:02pm

Ernesto is the farthest north Atlantic tropical storm since hurricane Juan in September 2003.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1030557891470622720

SleetAndSnow · 17-08-2018 10:09pm

Is the chance of this storm getting stronger after disappearing? It will only get weaker from here on out correct?

CeilingFly · 17-08-2018 10:32pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Are people really getting grumpy about ME using Yellow Advisories now? There's a reason it's coded yellow, the same reason the thread title prefix for yellow advisories is "Be Aware".

If the public ignore a yellow advisory, that's fine - it's not a warning!

Or is the complaint that we're wasting precious forum juice on new threads? Internetting doesn't work that way.

Problem is that no-one will click on a headline that says "yellow advisory" so the hysterical media have decided to create their own system to suit sensationalist headlines.

A cursory read of the hysterical indo will show you that.

MJohnston · 17-08-2018 10:39pm

CeilingFly wrote: »

Problem is that no-one will click on a headline that says "yellow advisory" so the hysterical media have decided to create their own system to suit sensationalist headlines.

A cursory read of the hysterical indo will show you that.

They constantly do that without Met Eireann's engagement or assistance. They all have their own quack weather experts to ring up for a sensational quote.

Dank Janniels · 17-08-2018 10:46pm

The amount of headlines with "Shock horror storm to batter the country" Iv seen this week!
Makes a change from all the "temperature set to plummet" as if forgetting the heatwave and drought we had the past few weeks!

Mobhi1 · 17-08-2018 11:01pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Ernesto is the farthest north Atlantic tropical storm since hurricane Juan in September 2003.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1030557891470622720

So what was Ophelia then?

Artane2002 · 17-08-2018 11:23pm

Mobhi1 wrote: »

So what was Ophelia then?

The easternmost major hurricane.

Mobhi1 · 17-08-2018 11:44pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

The easternmost major hurricane.

But if it reached Ireland then it must have been farther north than Ernesto.

sryanbruen · 17-08-2018 11:48pm

Mobhi1 wrote: »

But if it reached Ireland then it must have been farther north than Ernesto.

It was extratropical by the time it went northwards towards Ireland unlike Ernesto which is still tropical at this moment (though will likely become extratropical not too long now).

MJohnston · 18-08-2018 12:06am

Be interesting if anything happens with all this wildfire smoke. It'd be crazy if you could say you could smell California burning from the west coast of Ireland!

hatrickpatrick · 18-08-2018 12:18am

sryanbruen wrote: »

Ernesto is the farthest north Atlantic tropical storm since hurricane Juan in September 2003.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1030557891470622720

Wow, I could have sworn that Ophelia didn't begin extratropical transition until practically on our doorstep - is this definitely accurate?

sryanbruen · 18-08-2018 12:33am

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Wow, I could have sworn that Ophelia didn't begin extratropical transition until practically on our doorstep - is this definitely accurate?

I can't be totally sure as I didn't pay much attention to Ophelia. That guy is a verified meteorologist who specialises in Atlantic basin seasonal forecasts so you'd think he was accurate. Others may have answers.

MJohnston · 18-08-2018 12:37am

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Wow, I could have sworn that Ophelia didn't begin extratropical transition until practically on our doorstep - is this definitely accurate?

Ophelia approached us from the south-west though, so it transitioned around 45 degrees:

I believe the actual transition ended up occurring somewhere overnight on the 16th (US time), so still quite well south of the latitude Ernesto is at.

MJohnston · 18-08-2018 12:40am

Now I'm just reminded of how great the build-up to Ophelia was: the unusual track it was taking; the fact it was still Cat 2 strength so close to our shores; battening down the hatches on the day and the crazy winds even up here in Dublin. What a kick off to an insane 12 months of weather.

easygoing39 · 18-08-2018 12:46am

MJohnston wrote: »

Now I'm just reminded of how great the build-up to Ophelia was: the unusual track it was taking; the fact it was still Cat 2 strength so close to our shores; battening down the hatches on the day and the crazy winds even up here in Dublin. What a kick off to an insane 12 months of weather.

A great storm alright,let out off work,on full pay at 11am,was in my local at 1pm sinking back the pints,watching the racing from the UK on the telly and throwing on the odd tenner bet,best storm I ever lived thru!!

sdanseo · 18-08-2018 12:48am

MJohnston wrote: »

Now I'm just reminded of how great the build-up to Ophelia was: the unusual track it was taking; the fact it was still Cat 2 strength so close to our shores; battening down the hatches on the day and the crazy winds even up here in Dublin. What a kick off to an insane 12 months of weather.

The way things are going, it will be a lot more than 12 months.

I would venture that the weather will be "crazy" and in the longer term context much more difficult to predict for the next number of years.

(Ernesto) Warning for High Intensity Rain Sat 18 PM / Sun 19 AM

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